335
FXUS65 KABQ 201957
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1257 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1253 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

- Rain and mountain snow continues through the afternoon and
  evening, with embedded thunderstorms possible in central and
  eastern New Mexico.

- A few inches of accumulating snow will be favored above 8,500
  feet through the evening.

- Another storm system will bring a round of lower elevation rain
  and mountain snow Saturday night through early Monday morning. A
  few inches of accumulating snow will again be favored above
  8,500 feet.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 1253 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

A rainy and snowy afternoon continues across New Mexico today. The
culprit, a ~560dm low pressure over western NM/central AZ, is
providing sufficient diffluence aloft for widespread showers and
embedded thunderstorms. A few SNOTELs across the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains and the Gila Mountains have shown between 1-3" with up to
5" of snow so far with this system. Snow is likely to continue
throughout the rest of today and through midnight tonight, mainly
through the northern mountains, with highest additions likely to be
near 4". Below 8,500ft, rain will be the dominant precipitation
type. A dry slot, evident on water vapor imagery, is entering
southern NM as of 12pm. This is likely to be a catalyst for any
afternoon thunderstorms developing across central to eastern NM (as
evident by a storm near Alamogordo right along its boundary). SPC
Mesoanalysis paints up to 500 J/kg of SBCAPE along and near this
dry slot, further strengthening the potential of isolated to
scattered thunderstorms developing. Small hail, gusty winds up to
40mph, and brief heavy downpours would be expected from any
thunderstorm that does develop. Storms would likely be low topped
given an equilibrium level of roughly 7km from the 18z ABQ
sounding, so there is little concern for any severe thunderstorms
today.

Precipitation exits the state to the northeast through the evening
and early overnight hours, though mountain snow may remain through
early tomorrow morning. Given temperatures today will most likely
not warm up enough to evaporate the moisture that remains from the
day`s precipitation, and that temperatures will fall below freezing
in several locations in northern and western NM, a few spots of
black ice cannot be ruled out across roadways, including in the
Albuquerque and Santa Fe areas. Drivers should remain cautious if on
the road overnight. Alongside the black ice chance, isolated
instances of fog and freezing fog have a moderate chance to occur
across areas in northern and western NM.

The aforementioned low moves off to the northeast on Friday, leaving
behind rising pressure heights in its wake. Given this, temperatures
rebound up to the low to mid 50s across western and northern NM, and
up to the low 60s across eastern NM. Precip chances fall to near
zero given the rising pressure heights.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1253 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

A warm up continues Saturday as the pressure heights continue to
rise over the area. High 50 to mid 60s high temperatures through the
day sit around 5-9 degrees above average for late November. The warm
up is short lived as another Pacific low begins to make its way into
New Mexico Saturday evening into Sunday. While not a carbon copy,
there are several similarities for Sunday`s storm compared to what
is occurring over NM currently. Widespread diffluence aloft, 700mb
temperatures around -3C to -4C, and a southwest to northeast track
likely brings very similar conditions to the state. The northern
mountains have a good chance to be beneficiaries of another round of
high elevation snow (above 8,500ft) with rain below that.
Probabilities for at least 0.1" of liquid precipitation across much
of the state is quite high (>70%) for Saturday night into Sunday.
For snowfall, in terms of Winter Weather Advisory criteria (5" for
mountain zones), there is a 40-50% chance to reach that across the
Sangre de Cristo, Jemez and Tusas Mountains. This low exits New
Mexico late Sunday into Monday morning, taking any precipitation
chances with it outside of light backside snow across our far
northern mountains.

With that low exiting, dominant northwest flow takes its place,
setting up a breezy afternoon along and east of the central
mountains on Monday. Temperatures also increase a touch due to the
downsloping west/northwest winds. The northwest flow regime remains
in place for much of the middle of next week, with the only notable
item currently being a backdoor cold front pushing into NM late
Tuesday and early Wednesday. This will cool off much of the state
for Wednesday before a slight rebound in temperatures on
Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1051 AM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

Several areas of showers continue across central and eastern NM
around 18z, with snow likely occurring across high mountain terrain.
Many terminals have seen MVFR to IFR conditions throughout the
morning, with moderate to high confidence of this continuing through
at least 21z. A break in the rain is likely across central NM before
additional showers develop in the mid to late afternoon. Low to
moderate chances of thunderstorms to be embedded with these showers
as the atmosphere may destabilize enough. Have mentioned TSRA in
some TAFs given this probability. As showers and thunderstorms
continue through the evening, MVFR to IFR conditions can be expected
with any direct hit to a terminal. As precipitation winds down by 03-
06z (with the exception of northern mountain snow), low clouds may
stick around in western and northern mountain areas, including KGUP,
though confidence is not high enough to put the as prevailing
ceilings.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1253 PM MST Thu Nov 20 2025

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
several days. Widespread showers are likely to continue through
today with another round Saturday night/Sunday. Snow levels remain
at or near 8,500ft during these rounds of precipitation. Overnight
humidity recoveries likely remain good to great throughout the next
few nights, especially during and after precipitation. Breezy
conditions are likely Monday afternoon, but non receptive fuels and
high humidity values will make for very little concern about any
fire spread.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  36  51  32  58 /  20   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  26  49  19  58 /  40   5   0   0
Cuba............................  29  49  26  56 /  30   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  26  50  25  56 /   5   0   0   0
El Morro........................  28  50  29  53 /   5   0   0   5
Grants..........................  24  52  25  55 /   5   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  25  52  28  57 /   5   0   0  10
Magdalena.......................  29  51  33  55 /   0   0   0   5
Datil...........................  25  49  29  54 /   0   0   0   5
Reserve.........................  23  56  24  61 /   0   0   0  10
Glenwood........................  25  59  28  65 /   0   0   0  10
Chama...........................  24  45  20  52 /  50   5   0   0
Los Alamos......................  31  48  32  52 /  30   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  29  51  28  56 /  20   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  28  47  26  53 /  50   0   0   0
Red River.......................  22  41  21  46 /  50   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  16  46  13  52 /  40   0   0   0
Taos............................  27  50  21  56 /  40   0   0   0
Mora............................  26  52  24  56 /  30   0   0   0
Espanola........................  29  55  26  60 /  30   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  32  49  32  56 /  20   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  29  51  29  58 /  20   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  37  53  38  60 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  33  55  34  62 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  31  57  32  64 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  33  56  35  62 /  10   0   0   0
Belen...........................  28  55  29  63 /   5   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  33  56  33  63 /  10   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  28  56  28  63 /   5   0   0   0
Corrales........................  32  57  33  63 /  10   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  29  55  30  62 /   5   0   0   0
Placitas........................  34  52  36  59 /  10   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  33  56  34  62 /  10   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  32  57  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  30  49  31  55 /   5   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  31  50  32  57 /   5   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  29  51  28  57 /   5   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  26  53  22  59 /   5   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  28  49  28  52 /   5   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  28  51  28  58 /   5   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  28  51  28  58 /  10   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  31  54  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  29  52  32  55 /   0   0   0   5
Capulin.........................  28  51  26  56 /  50   0   0   0
Raton...........................  27  55  24  58 /  50   0   0   0
Springer........................  26  57  23  60 /  30   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  27  54  28  55 /  10   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  37  57  33  60 /  50   0   0   0
Roy.............................  29  56  29  58 /  30   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  32  62  31  62 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  34  59  31  59 /  10   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  34  62  30  63 /  20   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  37  63  34  63 /  10   0   0   5
Portales........................  37  64  31  65 /  10   0   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  34  64  30  63 /  10   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  36  65  34  63 /   0   0   0   5
Picacho.........................  32  63  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  27  62  30  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Friday for NMZ210-211-213-
214.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77