Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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293 FXUS65 KABQ 180821 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 121 AM MST Tue Nov 18 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1201 AM MST Tue Nov 18 2025 - A moist Pacific storm system will bring cooler and unsettled weather from late Tuesday night through Thursday night, with high chances for mountain snow and valley rain. - There is a high chance (70-90%) that winter weather advisories will be required for accumulating snow in the mountains from Wednesday night through Thursday night. - Another Pacific storm system may bring more precipitation to the region this weekend and into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1201 AM MST Tue Nov 18 2025 The next in a series of upper lows is currently diving southeast along the central CA coast per the latest water vapor satellite imagery and is tapping moisture from convection in the eastern Pacific along 10N. Moisture advection is underway across the region and PWATs are forecast to surge to near daily record values by Wednesday as the 558dam 500mb low turns east across SoCal toward western AZ. Forcing will be too weak across the area for precipitation today, but precipitation chances will enter the forecast tonight across southern portions of the area and then increase across central NM on Wednesday. A few lightning strikes can not be ruled out Wednesday afternoon across western NM where the latest NAM is advertising negative lifted indices and sbCAPE values of 100-300J/kg. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1201 AM MST Tue Nov 18 2025 The forecast evolution of the approaching upper low hasn`t changed much from the previous forecast cycle and is modeled to fill and lift northeast across NM on Thursday as a negatively tilted trough, while the next in the series of upper lows dives southeast along the CA coast. Precipitation chances will peak late Wednesday night through Thursday and are still trending up with each forecast cycle. Snow levels will start off high, around 9kft, but will lower to between 7-8kft at times Thursday as the colder air aloft around the low circulation moves over central NM. That said, snow accumulation is forecast to remain in the mountains with an airmass in place that is unsupportive (too warm) of accumulations at our population centers. Showers will mix with thunder on Thursday as the upper low moves overhead and graupel is likely, which may create short-lived difficult driving conditions. Otherwise, there is a high chance (70-90%) that a Winter Weather Advisory will be required for the northern mountains late Wednesday night through Thursday night, with lesser chances for the southwest and west central mountains. The upper low is forecast to eject northeast out of NM early Friday as a shortwave ridge moves overhead in advance of the next upper low turning inland over SoCal and the northern Baja Peninsula. This upper low is forecast to take a more southerly track along the US/MX border, but there is notable model spread beyond 12Z Sunday. Lower precipitation chances from Sunday through Monday are a reflection of this uncertainty, but don`t be surprised if chances trend up with subsequent forecast cycles. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM MST Tue Nov 18 2025 Batches of lower clouds (3500-5000ft above ground level) are redeveloping across portions of west central New Mexico, but currently cloud bases are just barely high enough to keep conditions in the VFR category. There is a moderate probability (50-70% chance) that scattered areas in western New Mexico will observe a slight lowering of these ceilings just beneath MVFR status (ceilings less than 3000 ft) through the early morning Tuesday, and this has been included in the TAF at KGUP. Otherwise, high, fair weather cirrus clouds will thicken overnight, gradually lowering with altostratus (bases around 15,000ft) into the daytime Tuesday. Light to moderate breezes (generally 5-15 kt) will prevail through Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1201 AM MST Tue Nov 18 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least the next seven days as two Pacific storm systems impact the region with cooler conditions, increased humidity and good chances for wetting precipitation. The first system will hit the area late Tuesday night through Thursday night and the second system will begin impacting the region Saturday night. Vent rates will trend down later this week and be mostly poor through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 58 35 59 40 / 5 10 10 40 Dulce........................... 54 28 55 28 / 0 10 20 40 Cuba............................ 53 32 54 32 / 0 10 20 60 Gallup.......................... 56 28 56 32 / 0 5 10 60 El Morro........................ 54 32 54 35 / 0 10 20 70 Grants.......................... 58 30 55 33 / 0 10 20 60 Quemado......................... 55 34 56 35 / 0 10 30 60 Magdalena....................... 58 41 55 39 / 0 20 40 70 Datil........................... 56 36 54 35 / 0 20 40 70 Reserve......................... 58 32 58 31 / 5 30 50 70 Glenwood........................ 62 36 61 33 / 10 50 60 70 Chama........................... 48 27 49 28 / 0 10 20 40 Los Alamos...................... 53 39 51 38 / 0 10 20 60 Pecos........................... 55 35 53 34 / 0 10 20 60 Cerro/Questa.................... 52 33 50 32 / 0 5 5 30 Red River....................... 48 25 48 27 / 0 5 5 30 Angel Fire...................... 52 24 51 18 / 0 5 5 30 Taos............................ 55 31 54 31 / 0 5 5 40 Mora............................ 57 33 55 31 / 0 5 10 40 Espanola........................ 59 36 59 35 / 0 10 20 50 Santa Fe........................ 55 39 55 38 / 0 10 20 60 Santa Fe Airport................ 58 37 58 36 / 0 10 20 60 Albuquerque Foothills........... 59 45 58 44 / 0 20 20 60 Albuquerque Heights............. 61 44 61 43 / 0 20 20 60 Albuquerque Valley.............. 62 38 63 36 / 0 20 20 60 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 60 42 60 42 / 0 20 20 60 Belen........................... 62 40 61 40 / 0 20 30 70 Bernalillo...................... 61 41 60 40 / 0 10 20 60 Bosque Farms.................... 61 37 61 37 / 0 20 20 60 Corrales........................ 61 40 60 40 / 0 10 20 60 Los Lunas....................... 61 38 60 38 / 0 20 20 60 Placitas........................ 59 43 58 43 / 0 10 20 60 Rio Rancho...................... 60 43 59 42 / 0 10 20 60 Socorro......................... 64 45 61 44 / 0 20 30 70 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 56 41 54 39 / 0 20 20 60 Tijeras......................... 57 43 55 40 / 0 20 20 60 Edgewood........................ 58 39 55 39 / 0 20 30 60 Moriarty/Estancia............... 60 34 57 32 / 0 20 30 60 Clines Corners.................. 56 37 53 35 / 0 10 20 60 Mountainair..................... 58 40 56 37 / 0 20 30 70 Gran Quivira.................... 58 39 55 37 / 0 20 40 70 Carrizozo....................... 62 45 58 41 / 0 20 40 70 Ruidoso......................... 57 41 53 37 / 0 20 40 70 Capulin......................... 57 33 59 33 / 0 0 0 20 Raton........................... 60 32 62 32 / 0 0 0 20 Springer........................ 62 33 64 31 / 0 0 0 20 Las Vegas....................... 59 37 57 34 / 0 5 10 40 Clayton......................... 64 41 67 41 / 0 0 0 10 Roy............................. 61 40 62 37 / 0 0 5 20 Conchas......................... 69 42 68 40 / 0 5 10 30 Santa Rosa...................... 67 44 64 40 / 0 10 10 40 Tucumcari....................... 71 43 69 41 / 0 5 10 30 Clovis.......................... 72 47 70 46 / 0 5 20 40 Portales........................ 73 44 72 43 / 0 5 20 40 Fort Sumner..................... 70 42 67 41 / 0 10 10 40 Roswell......................... 73 48 71 47 / 0 10 10 50 Picacho......................... 70 45 66 42 / 0 10 20 50 Elk............................. 67 40 62 37 / 0 20 20 50 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...52