Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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194 FXUS65 KABQ 131113 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 413 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 403 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025 - Temperatures will warm to near record highs across eastern New Mexico this afternoon and Friday afternoon, then again over some southeastern locations on Saturday. - Rain showers and mountain snow showers are expected mainly over western and north central areas Sunday and Sunday night, with decreasing coverage on Monday. Snow accumulation now looks to favor locations above 9000 feet with a few inches possible on higher peaks. - Rain and mountain snow showers may return Tuesday and Wednesday as another storm system crosses the state. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1240 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025 Warm and dry conditions will persist through Saturday. Broad ridging over NM today will shift eastward and southwesterly flow aloft will be the rule Friday and Saturday. Light winds will be the rule across most areas each day, though the central highlands, including KCQC, will get breezy both Thursday and Friday afternoon. A weak wind shift will be noted across northeast NM today, but temperatures will be unfazed. However, another wind shift/weak front will slide into northeast NM on Saturday. That front should lower temperatures a smidge across northeast NM. Nonetheless, high temperatures Thursday through Saturday will remain much above normal. Record to near record heat is most likely across eastern NM Thursday and Friday afternoon, and again across southeastern NM Saturday afternoon, however, a few central NM locales will get close as well. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1240 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025 While the details still need to be ironed out, models seems to be narrowing in on a solution for the Sunday storm system. The upper low is still progged to slide southward west of the CA coast Friday and Saturday to just southwest of Los Angeles. Then, the low is expected to eject north-northeastward over the Great Basin while an attendant vort max to the south of the main upper low crosses northeastward near the Four Corners on Sunday. Then the vort max will shift east-northeast toward the Great Plains on Monday. This solution has the same general idea from yesterday`s model solutions, so confidence is increasing that western and north central NM will be favored for any precipitation on Sunday, with linger precipitation early Monday morning across the northern mountains with orographic lift. Though cold air advection will begin Saturday night, the main Pacific front will slide from west to east on Sunday. It is along and behind this front where precipitation will be favored. As it often the case, as the front pushes into the Rio Grande Valley, much of the precipitation will fizzle out with downsloping into the the RGV. Chances are even lower (near zero) for precipitation across eastern NM as downsloping will be stronger there. A lee side surface trough is expected to develop Sunday, allowing for breezy to locally windy conditions across eastern NM. Some enhanced breezes will also be noted along the Pacific front. Precipitation amounts continue to look rather meager, with most locations across western and north central NM receiving less than one quarter inch of rain/liquid equivalent. Snow levels will remain quite high, generally above 9kft when precipitation is occurring, so only light snow amounts are expected at the high peaks. Mid level flow increases as the vort max crosses Colorado Sunday, but should remain elevated Sunday night. This will not only keep snow going across the northern mountains with orographic lift as mentioned earlier, but it will also allow for breezy to windy conditions along and just east of the Central Mountain Chain through the night. With modest daytime mixing on Monday, these breezy to windy conditions will continue through the afternoon across eastern NM, but snow should cease across the northern mountains around daybreak. High temperatures on Sunday will only be up to 8 degrees colder than on Saturday, with Monday`s highs falling up to another 10 degrees. Since we`re starting out 10 to 20 degrees above normal, that puts Monday`s high temperatures within 5 degrees of normal for mid November for most locations. Unsettled weather looks to continue into the middle of next week as another storm system impacts portions of NM Tuesday and Wednesday. Though considerable model uncertainty exists with this system, it does appear that it will be on the warmer side, with snow levels around 8500 feet. Thus, light amounts of low level rain and mountain snow looks to be in store once again. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 413 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025 VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. High clouds will continue to pass overhead. A few breezes with gusts near 25-30kt will occur around KCQC this afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1240 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025 Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail through Saturday. Breezy westerly winds will be noted across the Central Highlands this afternoon and again Friday afternoon, but elsewhere light winds will be the rule. A storm system will bring low level rain and mountain snow to western and north central NM on Sunday and Sunday night. An associated cold front will also race from west to east, cooling temperatures and bringing breezy to locally windy conditions to the area. Windy conditions will continue along and east of the Central Mountain Chain Sunday night into Monday. Another storm system may bring more precipitation to NM Tuesday and Wednesday. Poor ventilation will be the main fire weather concern over the next few days where winds are light. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 67 36 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 65 26 66 29 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 66 34 67 35 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 67 25 68 28 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 65 28 65 30 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 69 26 70 28 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 67 30 68 32 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 68 40 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 66 32 67 34 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 72 32 72 32 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 76 38 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 59 30 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 63 41 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 67 38 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 62 34 64 34 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 58 25 59 26 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 61 13 62 14 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 64 28 66 29 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 67 35 68 36 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 69 33 71 33 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 65 36 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 67 34 69 34 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 68 45 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 70 44 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 72 37 73 37 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 70 40 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 71 34 73 36 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 70 39 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 70 34 72 34 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 70 38 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 70 34 72 36 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 67 42 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 69 40 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 73 41 75 43 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 66 40 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 66 40 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 66 37 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 70 29 71 31 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 66 37 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 69 39 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 69 39 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 72 45 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 68 39 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 68 33 71 35 / 0 0 0 0 Raton........................... 72 32 74 34 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 73 30 75 32 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 71 36 71 38 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 76 43 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 74 36 75 38 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 79 36 80 40 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 78 43 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 79 38 82 43 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 80 44 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 81 42 82 45 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 81 40 81 43 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 82 43 83 45 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 79 46 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 76 42 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...34