194
FXUS65 KABQ 131113 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
413 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 403 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

- Temperatures will warm to near record highs across eastern New
  Mexico this afternoon and Friday afternoon, then again over
  some southeastern locations on Saturday.

- Rain showers and mountain snow showers are expected mainly over
  western and north central areas Sunday and Sunday night, with
  decreasing coverage on Monday. Snow accumulation now looks to
  favor locations above 9000 feet with a few inches possible on
  higher peaks.

- Rain and mountain snow showers may return Tuesday and Wednesday
  as another storm system crosses the state.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 1240 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

Warm and dry conditions will persist through Saturday. Broad
ridging over NM today will shift eastward and southwesterly flow
aloft will be the rule Friday and Saturday. Light winds will be
the rule across most areas each day, though the central highlands,
including KCQC, will get breezy both Thursday and Friday
afternoon. A weak wind shift will be noted across northeast NM
today, but temperatures will be unfazed. However, another wind
shift/weak front will slide into northeast NM on Saturday. That
front should lower temperatures a smidge across northeast NM.
Nonetheless, high temperatures Thursday through Saturday will
remain much above normal. Record to near record heat is most
likely across eastern NM Thursday and Friday afternoon, and again
across southeastern NM Saturday afternoon, however, a few central
NM locales will get close as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1240 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

While the details still need to be ironed out, models seems to be
narrowing in on a solution for the Sunday storm system. The upper
low is still progged to slide southward west of the CA coast
Friday and Saturday to just southwest of Los Angeles. Then, the
low is expected to eject north-northeastward over the Great Basin
while an attendant vort max to the south of the main upper low
crosses northeastward near the Four Corners on Sunday. Then the
vort max will shift east-northeast toward the Great Plains on
Monday. This solution has the same general idea from yesterday`s
model solutions, so confidence is increasing that western and
north central NM will be favored for any precipitation on Sunday,
with linger precipitation early Monday morning across the
northern mountains with orographic lift. Though cold air advection
will begin Saturday night, the main Pacific front will slide from
west to east on Sunday. It is along and behind this front where
precipitation will be favored. As it often the case, as the front
pushes into the Rio Grande Valley, much of the precipitation will
fizzle out with downsloping into the the RGV. Chances are even
lower (near zero) for precipitation across eastern NM as
downsloping will be stronger there. A lee side surface trough is
expected to develop Sunday, allowing for breezy to locally windy
conditions across eastern NM. Some enhanced breezes will also be
noted along the Pacific front. Precipitation amounts continue to
look rather meager, with most locations across western and north
central NM receiving less than one quarter inch of rain/liquid
equivalent. Snow levels will remain quite high, generally above
9kft when precipitation is occurring, so only light snow amounts
are expected at the high peaks.

Mid level flow increases as the vort max crosses Colorado Sunday,
but should remain elevated Sunday night. This will not only keep
snow going across the northern mountains with orographic lift as
mentioned earlier, but it will also allow for breezy to windy
conditions along and just east of the Central Mountain Chain
through the night. With modest daytime mixing on Monday, these
breezy to windy conditions will continue through the afternoon
across eastern NM, but snow should cease across the northern
mountains around daybreak.

High temperatures on Sunday will only be up to 8 degrees colder
than on Saturday, with Monday`s highs falling up to another 10
degrees. Since we`re starting out 10 to 20 degrees above normal,
that puts Monday`s high temperatures within 5 degrees of normal
for mid November for most locations.

Unsettled weather looks to continue into the middle of next week
as another storm system impacts portions of NM Tuesday and
Wednesday. Though considerable model uncertainty exists with this
system, it does appear that it will be on the warmer side, with
snow levels around 8500 feet. Thus, light amounts of low level
rain and mountain snow looks to be in store once again.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 413 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. High clouds
will continue to pass overhead. A few breezes with gusts near
25-30kt will occur around KCQC this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1240 AM MST Thu Nov 13 2025

Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail
through Saturday. Breezy westerly winds will be noted across the
Central Highlands this afternoon and again Friday afternoon, but
elsewhere light winds will be the rule. A storm system will bring
low level rain and mountain snow to western and north central NM
on Sunday and Sunday night. An associated cold front will also
race from west to east, cooling temperatures and bringing breezy
to locally windy conditions to the area. Windy conditions will
continue along and east of the Central Mountain Chain Sunday night
into Monday. Another storm system may bring more precipitation to
NM Tuesday and Wednesday. Poor ventilation will be the main fire
weather concern over the next few days where winds are light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  67  36  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  65  26  66  29 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  66  34  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  67  25  68  28 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  65  28  65  30 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  69  26  70  28 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  67  30  68  32 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  68  40  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  66  32  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  72  32  72  32 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  76  38  77  37 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  59  30  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  63  41  64  42 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  67  38  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  62  34  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  58  25  59  26 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  61  13  62  14 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  64  28  66  29 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  67  35  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  69  33  71  33 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  65  36  66  37 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  67  34  69  34 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  68  45  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  70  44  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  72  37  73  37 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  70  40  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  71  34  73  36 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  70  39  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  70  34  72  34 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  70  38  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  70  34  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  67  42  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  69  40  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  73  41  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  66  40  66  41 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  66  40  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  66  37  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  70  29  71  31 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  66  37  67  38 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  69  39  69  40 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  69  39  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  72  45  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  68  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  68  33  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  72  32  74  34 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  73  30  75  32 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  71  36  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  76  43  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  74  36  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  79  36  80  40 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  78  43  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  79  38  82  43 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  80  44  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  81  42  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  81  40  81  43 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  82  43  83  45 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  79  46  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  76  42  77  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...34