062
FXUS63 KBIS 160549
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1249 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog is expected tonight through Thursday morning.

- Below average highs northwest to above average highs southeast
  Thursday. Seasonable temperatures for Friday, through the
  weekend, and into early next week.

- Periods of rain through Friday, with a few thunderstorms
  possible mainly tonight and Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Showers, along with a few thunderstorms, are increasing in
coverage over western North Dakota. A separate line of showers
and thunderstorms from west central through east central South
Dakota will lift up through the forecast area overnight. All in
all, no major updates to the forecast at this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 939 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Shower activity lifting through the northern portion of the
forecast area is currently lifting north through the far
northern tier counties. Early evening thunder around Lake
Sakakawea has dissipated but additional lightning has developed
around Crosby recently, and additional lighting is possible in
the shower activity along the International Border.

The next wave of energy is northward through the
central/northern High Plains. Enough forcing for ascent to
develop quiet a bit of lightning from east central Wyoming into
the Black Hills of South Dakota. Latest cams seem to have a
decent handle on this activity moving into the state from the
south after midnight. Used a blend of guidance to update pops
through the night. Also adjusted Probability of thunder some to
account for a little more widespread potential for thunder. The
severe threat however, looks to remain low. updated text
products will be transmitted shortly.

UPDATE
Issued at 551 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Only minor changes to the going forecast. Bumped up sky cover to
get cloudy wording across the forecast area. Thunder was noted
in the past 15 minutes or so in Mercer County. Not confident in
this convection holding on for much longer. We do have a
mention of thunder, moreso for later this evening. Will monitor.
Expect mostly light rain or drizzle to increase this evening,
with heavier shower activity later this evening and overnight.
Updated text products will be transmitted shortly.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

An upper level trough continues to deepen across the Great Basin
placing the Northern Plains in southwesterly flow aloft. Thus
there is divergence aloft over the Plains. Water vapor imagery
shows a wave pushing into southwestern North Dakota. This wave
is currently generating thunderstorms and showers across the
southwest. This wave should slowly generate storms this
afternoon into tonight across western and central North Dakota.
Severe weather is not expected from showers or thunderstorms
tonight. Low stratus across the region is forecast to linger
through the night into tomorrow. Patchy to areas of fog are
forecast to form late tonight through tomorrow morning after the
rain.

Rain will likely move out of the area early in the morning
before another round of showers returns later in the day. The
upper level low is forecast to pass over the region tomorrow
bringing in widespread precipitation across western North
Dakota. There are around a 60-70 percent chance of an 1 inch or
rain out west from this system as wrap around precipitation
persists through most of tomorrow out west. Wrap around
precipitation will move out of the state by Friday morning. A
tight surface pressure gradient and increasing surface heights
will lead to windy conditions Friday and Saturday. Winds are
forecast to around 20 kts Friday and 25 kts Saturday.
Temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s to lower 60s through
the remainder of this week into next week. This weekend is
forecast to be dry as an upper level ridge if forecast to
amplify across the region. Models begin to diverge on the upper
level pattern next week, however they are consistent on high
temperatures in the 50s to 60s persisting.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Areas of fog, patchy drizzle, and periods of rain are expected
tonight through much of the day Thursday. Occasional
thunderstorm activity is expected as well. Included PROB30
groups for TSRA at KDIK and KBIS tonight, but otherwise
pinpointing thunderstorm activity remains difficult. Conditions
may begin to clear Thursday evening in the south central, though
showers are likely to persist in western parts of the state.
IFR/LIFR ceilings will prevail through the vast majority of the
period at most terminals. Bottom line is to expect significantly
reduced ceilings and visibility, along with periodic rain
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms, at all terminals
through most of the period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Telken