


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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062 FXUS63 KBIS 160549 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1249 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Areas of fog is expected tonight through Thursday morning. - Below average highs northwest to above average highs southeast Thursday. Seasonable temperatures for Friday, through the weekend, and into early next week. - Periods of rain through Friday, with a few thunderstorms possible mainly tonight and Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1249 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Showers, along with a few thunderstorms, are increasing in coverage over western North Dakota. A separate line of showers and thunderstorms from west central through east central South Dakota will lift up through the forecast area overnight. All in all, no major updates to the forecast at this time. UPDATE Issued at 939 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Shower activity lifting through the northern portion of the forecast area is currently lifting north through the far northern tier counties. Early evening thunder around Lake Sakakawea has dissipated but additional lightning has developed around Crosby recently, and additional lighting is possible in the shower activity along the International Border. The next wave of energy is northward through the central/northern High Plains. Enough forcing for ascent to develop quiet a bit of lightning from east central Wyoming into the Black Hills of South Dakota. Latest cams seem to have a decent handle on this activity moving into the state from the south after midnight. Used a blend of guidance to update pops through the night. Also adjusted Probability of thunder some to account for a little more widespread potential for thunder. The severe threat however, looks to remain low. updated text products will be transmitted shortly. UPDATE Issued at 551 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Only minor changes to the going forecast. Bumped up sky cover to get cloudy wording across the forecast area. Thunder was noted in the past 15 minutes or so in Mercer County. Not confident in this convection holding on for much longer. We do have a mention of thunder, moreso for later this evening. Will monitor. Expect mostly light rain or drizzle to increase this evening, with heavier shower activity later this evening and overnight. Updated text products will be transmitted shortly. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 An upper level trough continues to deepen across the Great Basin placing the Northern Plains in southwesterly flow aloft. Thus there is divergence aloft over the Plains. Water vapor imagery shows a wave pushing into southwestern North Dakota. This wave is currently generating thunderstorms and showers across the southwest. This wave should slowly generate storms this afternoon into tonight across western and central North Dakota. Severe weather is not expected from showers or thunderstorms tonight. Low stratus across the region is forecast to linger through the night into tomorrow. Patchy to areas of fog are forecast to form late tonight through tomorrow morning after the rain. Rain will likely move out of the area early in the morning before another round of showers returns later in the day. The upper level low is forecast to pass over the region tomorrow bringing in widespread precipitation across western North Dakota. There are around a 60-70 percent chance of an 1 inch or rain out west from this system as wrap around precipitation persists through most of tomorrow out west. Wrap around precipitation will move out of the state by Friday morning. A tight surface pressure gradient and increasing surface heights will lead to windy conditions Friday and Saturday. Winds are forecast to around 20 kts Friday and 25 kts Saturday. Temperatures are forecast to be in the 50s to lower 60s through the remainder of this week into next week. This weekend is forecast to be dry as an upper level ridge if forecast to amplify across the region. Models begin to diverge on the upper level pattern next week, however they are consistent on high temperatures in the 50s to 60s persisting. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1249 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Areas of fog, patchy drizzle, and periods of rain are expected tonight through much of the day Thursday. Occasional thunderstorm activity is expected as well. Included PROB30 groups for TSRA at KDIK and KBIS tonight, but otherwise pinpointing thunderstorm activity remains difficult. Conditions may begin to clear Thursday evening in the south central, though showers are likely to persist in western parts of the state. IFR/LIFR ceilings will prevail through the vast majority of the period at most terminals. Bottom line is to expect significantly reduced ceilings and visibility, along with periodic rain showers and possibly a few thunderstorms, at all terminals through most of the period. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Telken DISCUSSION...Johnson AVIATION...Telken