Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KABR 221718 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1218 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Issued at 1156 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2016

See below for an updated aviation forecast discussion for the 18Z

UPDATE Issued at 1027 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2016

Forecast for today is on track and little in the way of changes
are needed. Will continue to see increasing south to southeast
breezes today with temperatures warming nicely into the 60s and
70s. Main concern will be the fire danger across south central SD,
including fire weather zone 267. Current RH forecast still has
about 20 to 25 percent in that region with breezy southerly winds.
Although, strongest winds and lowest RH still appear to not line
up during the same time, but will continue to monitor.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 246 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2016

Will start this morning with a weak cold front set up near the ND/SD
border, but little in the way of impacts expected from this
boundary. Another day in the 60s can be expected on southeasterly
winds, with a few readings in the low to mid 70s far southwest.
Low pressure across MT this morning will shift across Lyman County
by 00Z, before exiting to west central MN by 06Z Sunday. The
nearing low will allow for some late afternoon shifting and
diminishing of the winds west of the MO River. This will help
limit the high grassland fire danger index values, although RH
values will still fall to 20-30 percent southwest of Pierre.

Northwesterly winds and cooler air will return for Sunday as high
pressure slides overhead. Highs will top out in the mid 50s to right
around 60F. While warm air advection returns Monday, as the sfc high
shifts across MN/IA, highs will only be a few degrees warmer.
Expect highs Monday ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s
possible, as the 500mb ridge rebounds overhead.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2016

Mid level ridging will be over the Plains Monday night, then gets
dampened as a shortwave trough slides across the region Tuesday and
Wednesday. Northwest flow then sets up as a strong ridge builds over
the Rocky Mountain region on Thursday, with the ridge then pushing
east and over the central part of the country on Friday.

At the surface, the CWA will be between high pressure to the east
and low pressure to the west Monday evening. The low to the west
will gradually push east, bringing precipitation chances to portions
of the CWA late Monday night through early Wednesday. Little in the
way of instability around, so will just mention rain showers at this
time. The system pushes east on Wednesday, with high pressure
returning and bringing dry conditions through the end of the period.

Above normal temperatures will continue through the long term
period, with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Overnight lows will be
in the upper 30s to mid 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT SAT OCT 22 2016

VFR conditions will prevail across the area this afternoon through
Sunday morning. Look for breezy southeasterly winds today to
switch around to northwest winds overnight...becoming breezy
northwest on Sunday, especially over KABR/KATY.




LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Dorn is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.