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000
FXUS63 KABR 072125
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...AND WILL ALLOW FOR
ONE MORE FAIRLY COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SOME LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE EAST MAY SEE TEMPERATURES FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO.
AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON SATURDAY...WARMER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WHILE THE EAST
REMAINS COOLER. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE WEST...WHILE THE EAST WILL ONLY MANAGE 20S FOR HIGHS.
THE BETTER WARM UP WILL COME SUNDAY AS A TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE
AREA AND MUCH STRONGER WAA DEVELOPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND
50S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90
POSSIBLE REACHING THE LOWER 60S.

THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY. ONLY OTHER CONCERN WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG WINDS IN THE SISSETON HILLS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A TROUGH OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL INFLUENCE THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S AND 50S
MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAYBE EVEN 60 DEGREES FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST
CWA. DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN EXIST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT PROFILES. PTYPE IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOST
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN AND THEN SWITCH OVER TO SNOW.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY...BUT THEY WILL STILL BE
NEAR SEASONAL VALUES. AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE THE UPPER FLOW
SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAK RIDING...ALLOWING FOR A MAINLY DRY FORECAST
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE SIGNS OF ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION AT THE
VERY END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR STRATUS HAS BLANKETED MOST OF THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHWARD CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT...AND THEN CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDERNEATH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN