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204
FXUS63 KABR 221515 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1015 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Current forecast is on track, therefore no changes made at this
time.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Focus for today shifts from severe storm potential to fire danger. A
drier and more stable air mass will move into the region today as
breezy northwest winds develop. These winds will be felt more over
northern portions of the CWA, while the lowest RH will reside over
all of central SD. Upgraded fire zone 268 to a Red Flag warning as
wind gusts appear to hit criteria there as well as RH values below
20 percent. Farther south, it just seems the winds will be a bit too
low to warrant a headline. Bufkit profiles across the southwest CWA
are pretty weak in regards to winds in the first few thousand feet
of the atmosphere. Fire zone 269 was tricky in that RH was a bit
more marginal with current forecast in the low to mid 20s. Will need
to monitor this though for possible upgrade later today. Regardless,
much of central SD will be highlighted with very high fire danger in
other products.

Surface high pressure will build south into the region tonight and
drift east across the area during the day Sunday, finally ending up
in MN by 00Z Monday. As this high moves through it will provide for
dry conditions and mostly clear skies. After another warm day today,
cooler air from the high pressure will knock down highs a few
degrees by Sunday.

SuperBlend came back with some slight chance POPs on Monday for the
western CWA as a frontal boundary moves into western SD. This looks
OK for the time being, but if the front position remains over
western SD in the next few model runs, POPs may need to be cut and
confined more to UNR`s CWA.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

For the entire long term a stout/hot mid level ridge will continue
across the south central and southwest part of the CONUS. Over the
Northern Plains, we can expect periodic chances for rain as
shortwaves ride the fast flow over southern Canada and the far
northern CONUS. The highest chances for rain appear to be about
early to mid week as a sfc front slides into the region. However,
toward late week it will likely dry out again as heights climb
across much of the region as a mid level ridge reasserts itself
over the region. Temperatures should average out near to above
normal for much of the period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

VFR conditions are expected through today at all terminals.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for SDZ268.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK