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000
FXUS63 KABR 182337 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
637 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

JUST A QUICK UPDATE HERE TO HIGHLIGHT SOME CHANGES TO THE WIND
ADVISORY. ADDED A TIER OF COUNTIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
ADVISORY...SO IT EXTENDS OVER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER NOW /PLUS
LYMAN COUNTY WEST RIVER/...AND MADE ALL THE ADVISORY COUNTIES WEST
OF BROWN/SPINK EXTEND IN TIME TO 1 AM CDT AS THERE SHOULD BE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY THEN WHICH SHOULD HAVE THE WINDS
SETTLING DOWN BY THEN AND SWITCHING AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
POST-FRONTAL. ABERDEEN/REDFIELD OVER ONTO A PORTION OF THE COTEAU
ARE NOW IN THE ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT...BEFORE SAME FRONTAL
PASSAGE REASONING APPLIES. AND FINALLY...WATERTOWN/SISSETON AREAS
EAST INTO WC MINNESOTA ARE IN IT UNTIL 7 AM CDT ON SATURDAY.

THE 0.5KM WIND PROGS OFF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/LOCAL WRF AND LATEST
AVAILABLE 925HPA/850HPA WIND PROGS IN THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL
SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS ARE GONNA STAY RIDICULOUS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. UPDATES ARE OUT.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HI-
RES MODELS ARE INDICATING BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD AND THEN INTO NORTHEASTERN SD/WEST CENTRAL MN. BASED ON
LACK OF AVAILABLE LLM COULD SEE LEANING TOWARD LOWER POPS SAT
MORNING FOR THE EAST BUT STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS FOR COLLABORATION
PURPOSES.

THE WIND FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER CHALLENGE. THE LOCAL
4KM SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOME DOWNSLOPING
OCCURS. HAVE A WIND ADVISORY OUT RIGHT NOW FOR A LARGER PORTION OF
THE AREA BUT MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR THE EAST FOR
ANOTHER 6 HOURS.

FIRE WX WILL STILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON BEHIND THE LOW
ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. RH WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S SO NOT
QUITE HEADLINE CRITERIA BUT GETTING CLOSE. BY SATURDAY NIGHT SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EASTER WEEKEND.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
WARMER AIR WILL BE DOMINANT...SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. MAY EVEN SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. SEVERE
POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF KEEPS CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THE ENTIRE TIME...BUT THE GFS IS
HINTING AT A POTENTIAL DRY PERIOD ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BAND
PUSHES EAST AND BEFORE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. DUE TO
THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO JUST KEEP A SMALL POP
GOING THE ENTIRE TIME...SIMILAR TO THE ALLBLEND.

WILL GENERALLY SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR LOOKS TO MOVE IN AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD...SO HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAY ONLY REACH THE 50S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY SATURDAY. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COMMON WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY
AT KABR/KATY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...DECREASING
AND SWITCHING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A
FEW HIGH-BASED WEAK RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-LYMAN-MCPHERSON-POTTER-SULLY-
     WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-GRANT-
     HAMLIN-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-DAY-
     MARSHALL-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN