245
FXUS63 KABR 102011
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
311 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe storms mainly across
central South Dakota this afternoon and across northeast South
Dakota into west central Minnesota on Friday. Hail up to an inch in
diameter and thunderstorm wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible
within the risk area on both days.

- The potential exists for a noticeable cool-down during the middle
of next week (temperatures 10 to perhaps 15 degrees below normal).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Isolated storms are forming just south of the CWA, with some
remnants of morning convection coming in from the west. Low level
flow is southerly out ahead of a weak low, with heat index values
running into the upper 80s to mid 90s. Still a lot of CIN to
overcome this afternoon and there is a weak wave moving across the
southern half of the state. CAMS are pretty limited in convective
coverage this afternoon, owing to weak upper level support.

Convection will tag along with the weak wave across the southern
half of the state tonight, with a stronger wave up along the
Canadian/North Dakota border for Friday. Shear increases across the
norther tier of South Dakota through the day, however the CAPE is
shunted all the way down towards Watertown/Brookings by early
afternoon. CAMS still support convection as a possibility along the
front prior to departing out of the CWA, in addition to the random
smattering of convection northwest of the boundary which would
feature more stable conditions in the low levels, skinny CAPE and
that higher shear environment.

Saturday will be fairly tepid with low humidity, with temperatures
around 80 degrees as NAEFS 850mb temperatures drop to a standard
deviation below climo. As this time, with the low and upper level
flows out of the northwest, we will have to continually assess
potential for impacts from Canadian wildfire smoke. A narrow ribbon
of post frontal smoke should be noted with the system Friday,
however Saturday there is broader support for elevated smoke moving
overhead in the HRRR, though the bulk of near surface smoke looks to
hang up over North Dakota late Friday/Saturday.

The next round of heat is Sunday/Monday, under a northwest flow
regime, though  no real thermal anomalies noted in the 700mb/850mb
temperatures fields. Low level flow is weak, with a weak surface
trough stalling in the central/eastern Dakotas before washing out
Sunday. For Monday, a lee low develops out west, lifts northeast and
helps support a frontal passage and convection. Thus, the high
uncertainty for Mondays` high temperatures, with the NBM 25th/75th
range for high temperatures at 12 to 18 degrees. Current forecast
for highs is also on the lower end, closer to the 25th percentile.
That high uncertainty continues into Tuesday with a range of 8 to
14C, with the lower range across north central South Dakota where
cooler air displacement is already established. Positive news in
regards to the heat is that the 75th percentile dewpoints are only
up into the low/mid 60s to not overly  oppressive, though this is
still probably downplayed as the corn is in full evapotranspiration
mode. The cooler airmass will then dominate conditions for the
middle of next week, with NAEFS 850mb temperature anomalies about a
standard deviation below climo Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions for all terminals. Cant rule out a storm or two,
however its too low confidence to nail down a timing/location for
inclusion in TAFS. Convection west of Pierre has the best chance
for impacting the KPIR terminal in the next few hours, however
that is weak and may not translate effectively that far west.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07