Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 271136 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
636 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

Issued at 636 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

12z aviation discussion updated below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

Compact vort circulation continues to move east-southeast across ND
early this morning. Have actually been seeing an area of showers
with the occasional lightning strike track eastward across northwest
and now into north central SD. There is some weak instability aloft,
along with steep mid level lapse rates. Also noting a subtle speed
max aloft sliding through as well. Had already introduced pops
across the northwest CWA a few hours ago as this activity first
showed up in northwest SD. Things continue to hold together as
sprinkles/light showers move east-southeast. A few of the hi-res
models picking up on this feature and continue to move these very
light showers across the area over the next several hours. Have
expanded pops further east and will continue to update as needed.
Also keeping an eye on the expansive stratus field to the north as
it slides southeast into the far northeast CWA. MVFR cigs are
associated with this stratus deck. RAP/HRRR picking up on this
nicely and continue to bring the stratus south into the northeast
CWA through the morning, so have increased sky cover grids
dramatically across the northeast CWA corner from previous forecast.
Will monitor this through the morning also to see how far west
stratus can make it.

The surface high will slowly slide southeast through the area today
through Tuesday, before finally exiting the area by Wednesday. It
appears the best chances for any precipitation during the short term
period will be across the western CWA up through Tuesday night, and
it`s slim at best. Will have to wait until Tuesday night and
Wednesday before better instability develops over the region and
better forcing moves in. Models continue to hint at a thunderstorm
complex over southern SD late Tuesday night into Wednesday, but
placement of this feature is still in question.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

The models begin the long term period with upper level ridging over
the western U.S. into western Canada putting our region under
northwest flow. The models show a strong short wave trough in Canada
to begin the period diving southeast and into the Great Lakes
through Thursday. This will drive a decent cold front across our
region Wednesday night into the Thursday bringing chances of showers
and storms with it. A large Canadian high pressure area then pushes
south into our region Thursday and Thursday night and then to the
east Friday and Friday night. Both Thursday night and Friday still
look to be dry. Cooler than normal temperatures are expected from
Thursday through Saturday with highs mainly in the upper 70s to the
lower 80s. With the upper ridge out west building over the region
through the will warm up by Sunday. Chances of storms
will also return for Friday night through Sunday as warm air
advection/llj/instability returns along with short waves coming over
the region from the west.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

Surface high pressure will build southeast across the region through
tonight bringing mainly vfr conditions along with winds generally
under 10 mph. Otherwise, mvfr/low vfr stratus clouds in North Dakota
were pushing south towards abr and aty and may affect these
locations for awhile this morning.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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