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000
FXUS63 KABR 062152
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
352 PM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE WIND CHILL VALUES TONIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY.

AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...BRING RECORD TO NEAR RECORD LOWS TONIGHT ALONG WITH
BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES. BASED ON THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE
RAPID REFRESH MODEL...AND LOWS THIS MORNING UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE IN MONTANA...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TONIGHT. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO
SEE LOWS AROUND 30 BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THESE COLD
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS BETWEEN 3 TO 7 KNOTS WILL
CAUSE WIND CHILL VALUES TO DROP TO 35 BELOW TO 45 BELOW ZERO.
WHILE WINDS ARE MARGINAL...WILL GO AHEAD AN ISSUE A WIND CHILL
WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SD AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.

BY SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BRINGING LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THIS SYSTEM LACKS SIGNIFICANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT RESULTING IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF HALF AN
INCH TO PERHAPS TWO INCHES. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 29 WHERE BETTER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOCATED. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS THE REGION BY
SUNDAY EVENING WITH COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE PERIOD IS MARKED BY NORTHWEST FLOW /POLAR JET STREAM
INFLUENCE/ WHICH SHOULD MEAN PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SUBTLE UPPER WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION IN THIS FLOW
REGIME...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO A BRIEF WARM UP IN ADVANCE OF
EACH SYSTEM FOLLOWED BY A RESURGENCE OF COLD AIR BEHIND EACH ONE.
AT THIS POINT...ONLY MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT MAINTAIN ANY LOW POPS FOR
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF STRONG DOWN-SLOPE WINDS EAST OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU MONDAY
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

UNDER A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS VFR CIG/VISBY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
THE CAVEAT IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...INCLUDING THE KPIR TERMINAL...WHERE THE WARM OPEN WATER OF
LAKE OAHE IS CREATING A LAKE EFFECT BAND OF IFR CLOUDS AND SNOW.
ONCE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER THIS
EVENING...THE BAND OF CLOUDS AND SNOW /AND IFR WEATHER/ SHOULD
END AT THE KPIR TERMINAL...WITH PERHAPS JUST A SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LAYER OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR BROWN-CAMPBELL-
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-
     MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK-WALWORTH.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ SATURDAY FOR
     BUFFALO-CORSON-DEWEY-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-
     STANLEY-SULLY.

MN...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN