Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 162135

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
335 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 335 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

A surface low pressure area sliding across southern Canada tonight
will allow for a decrease in south winds into the evening along with
a cool front pushing in behind it across our region. Therefore,
winds will turn north through the night with cooler and drier air
for Friday pushing in from Canada. For Friday, an elongated upper
level low pressure trough from the west will be moving towards our
region. Model xscts show that at the mid and upper levels the
relative humidity remains high. Thus, expect mid and high clouds to
continue to spread over our region through Friday. With upper
forcing from the trough, expect areas of light rain to develop
across the north central by Friday afternoon and slide/develop south
into central South Dakota into the evening. The models have slowed
down and backed off a little on the qpf with this system through
Friday afternoon. There will be dry low layers for the precipitation
to overcome. Therefore, have adjusted pops and weather. Temperatures
should remain warm enough on Friday in the 40s with just light rain.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

An active, but generally dry forecast is expected through the long
term portion of the forecast.

The period begins with a broad upper level trough crossing the
region with light pcpn possible, mainly in south central South
Dakota. Upper level ridging slowly builds into the region Saturday
through Monday with temperatures warming into the 40s and 50s by

A low pressure system will cross north of the region on Monday, with
cold air advection pushing into the CWA Monday night into Tuesday.
Models have been fairly consistent with this cold air push with
highs only in the 20s expected on Tuesday. Upper level ridging,
along with warm air advection will develop by Wednesday with temps
reaching the mid 40s, west of the Missouri River. The warm air
advection should push across the rest of the CWA on Thursday with
highs ranging from the lower 40s, in western MN, to the lower 50s,
west of the Missouri River.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

VFR conditions are expected through tonight and Friday. Breezy
south to southeast winds at 15 to 30 knots will decrease through the
late afternoon and evening and slowly come around to the north
through Friday morning.




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