Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 260524 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND INTO NORTHEAST
SD/WEST CENTRAL MN INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ADJUSTED POPS.
REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING LIGHT PCPN ONGOING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE PCPN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES FURTHER EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL VORT
WEAKENS.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY OVER NEVADA WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PCPN
INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...PCPN SHOULD REACH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND THE I-29 CORRIDOR AFTER 0Z WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THIS CWA...INSTABILITY LOOKS RATHER
LIMITED. SREF PROBABILITY OF SEEING SURFACE BASE CAPE OF 500 J/KG
IS ZERO. GFS MU-CAPE VALUES ARE ALSO BEST SOUTH OF I-90 AS WELL.
THUS WILL MAINTAIN RAIN AS THE P-TYPE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO
TWO INCHES SEEMS POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON SURFACE TEMPS AND THE HEIGHT OF -2C...HAVE INTRODUCED
SNOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. NO ACCUMULATING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HAVE GONE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE
PERIODS...WITH SCHC/LOW CHC POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 40S ON THURSDAY...THEN MAINLY IN THE 50S OVER THE
WEEKEND BEFORE CLIMBING BACK TO THE LOWER 60S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MAY BE COOL ENOUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW FOR A TIME.
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WILL BE COMMON FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

AS LOW LEVEL RH REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD...MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS ALONG WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND FOG ARE EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE CEILINGS WILL AGAIN RISE TO MVFR ON TUESDAY AS LIFT
FROM THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. ALSO...EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING AFFECTING ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TDK



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