Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KABR 240908

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
408 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 407 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Currently watching mid level shortwave energy tracking across the
western/central Dakotas early this morning with a cluster of showers
and thunderstorms from south central ND through north central SD.
Low level jet/warm air advection is the main driver for the activity
this morning. Earlier this morning over western SD, storms were
actually on the strong/severe side with hail likely under some of
the more impressive cores. Things have subsided as storms move into
the western CWA, but atmosphere still characterized by MUCAPE from
1000 to 1500 J/KG and effective bulk shear around 50 knots. Cannot
rule out a few stronger storms this morning but cluster seems to be
on the downward trend over the past hour or so. Mid level lapse
rates are less favorable east of the Missouri River which is likely
the cause for the downward trend in intensity.

For later today, the heat and humidity will be the main story. Upper
level ridging builds across the region with toasty 850mb temps
spreading eastward. Highs will soar into the upper 90s to around 100
degrees over the western CWA, with 90s as far east as the James
River. Dewpoints will be fairly high as well as gusty southerly
winds transport low level moisture. Heat index values are forecast
to range from 100 to 105 degrees over the southwest CWA today, so
have decided to issue a heat advisory. In regards to temps and winds
today, continued to side with the highest end guidance numbers, or
even higher in some cases.

Will then be watching the surface trough/cold front as it moves east
across the CWA late tonight into Saturday morning. Left in some low
pops across the area as this front moves through, but not all too
excited about precip chances. It does not appear the areal coverage
will be all that great. Behind the front, gusty west to northwest
winds will spread from west to east across the area. Models are also
hinting at a pretty good push of winds immediately behind the
frontal passage over western and central SD so will have to keep an
eye on that. Dewpoints drop off pretty good Saturday afternoon over
the western CWA and RH values are forecast to drop to around 20
percent. The low RH combined with the gusty west winds will bring
fire weather concerns, but will have to assess the status of the
fuels before determining any headlines. Latest comment from fire
weather zone 267 on 6/23 is still a "no" for favorable large fire
growth. Grasses curing but not yet in the critical stage.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Good agreement with the models during the long term with very little
change in the upper level flow pattern over our region from Sunday
night through Thursday. The models show an upper level high pressure
area spinning over the southwest U.S. with ridging extending
northward into western Canada. This will put our region in northwest
flow aloft meaning cooler Canadian air will prevail through the
period. Highs look to be in the mid 70s to the lower 80s across the
region for most of the period. The first several periods look to be
mostly dry across the cwa as surface high pressure builds out of
Canada and to the east of our region. Several short waves rounding
the western ridge and then southeast along the east slopes of the
rockies will bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to
western part of sd. Our western cwa has the best chances of
receiving rainfall from Monday night through Wednesday night. It
will be difficult for the precipitation to build east into the
northeast CWA where it looks to be mostly dry.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Expect VFR flying weather to persist throughout the taf valid
period. A llj across western and central South Dakota will promote
some low level windshear conditions through mid morning mainly at
KPIR and KMBG. Also, there remains some potential for elevated
convection on the llj over portions of central and north central
South Dakota through sun up. For now, have introduced some thunder
mention in the KMBG taf.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...Heat Advisory from 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ this afternoon to 7 PM CDT
     /6 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ033>036-045-048-051.



AVIATION...Mohr is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.