Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 221147 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
647 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 407 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

Continue to deal with convection early this morning in south central
SD and northeast SD. Severe potential across the north has waned and
will allow SVR watch 282 to expire at 09Z. Severe storms are ongoing
south and east of Pierre with large hail being the main threat.
Surface low and cold front will continue to push east across the
region through the morning hours with showers and thunderstorms
gradually coming to an end.

For later today, northwest winds will increase behind the passing
frontal boundary. May see showers and thunderstorms linger over the
far northeast CWA into late morning out ahead of the front. Not
much in the way of cool air behind this front, so still looking for
highs in the 80s today.

Surface high builds south over the Dakotas tonight with cool
temperatures settling in. Lows are forecast to drop into the low to
mid 50s for most locations with dry conditions under the high.

Looking at Friday, hot air moves in as 850mb temps surge into the
mid to upper 20s Celsius along and west of the James River valley.
Bumped up highs a few degrees and leaned towards the warmest side of
guidance, as we will see good southerly mixing winds helping to warm
things up. Pushed highs into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees
over central SD, with readings into the low to mid 90s into the
James River area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

Much of the focus for the long term forecast is tied to the the
first 24-36 hours, as the next upper trough nears the Northern
Plains. The system looks to have slowed slightly as it moves into
eastern Montana Friday Night, while the cold front looks to slide
east across Central-Eastern SD. Still thinking that the
precip/thunder will be limited due to the strong cap in place
(700mb temps to 15C) and the front running well out ahead of the
main shortwave. Since there are some indications that it will be
a little slower to arrive, it may still be over far eastern SD
and our West Central MN counties during the day on Saturday. That
could lead to some thunderstorm development and will trend PoPs
more into the Saturday period for our eastern half to third of the
CWA. Once the front departs, the upper trough will begin to close
off over southern Manitoba and slowly move eastward through
Monday. That will likely leave the area dry (although there could
be a passing shower with a wave that brushes the area on Monday).
Still expect a breezy period behind the front, but with the delay
it now looks more likely to later Saturday afternoon into Sunday
as the high pressure ridge moves in. Models continue to show dry
air surging in Saturday afternoon over Central SD (dewpoints
falling into the 30s or maybe slightly lower) and with the gusts
of 30-35 mph do expect there to be some fire weather concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period, but there is the
potential for borderline MVFR ceilings at KMBG/KPIR for the first
couple of hours this morning. Otherwise, once the trough moves
through winds will be gusty out of the northwest through the
afternoon.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...SRF



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