Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 261549 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1049 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES THIS MORNING. DID ADD SLIGHT CHC POPS TO
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE AM ALSO
EXPECTING WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT
THEM TO BE MARGINAL CONCERNING ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY

A FEW ELEVATED/WEAK STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS AM. MOST OF
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN. A SLOW
MOVING...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION TODAY AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

AS WE ARE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...WESTERLY WINDS WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE MIXING
ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL COUNTER COLD ADVECTION AND RESULT IN
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS...AS WELL AS MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. MIXED WINDS
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CWA WILL BE CLOSE TO BUT PROBABLY JUST
BELOW ADVISORY. H85 TEMPS ARE GOING TO RUN AROUND 1 STANDARD
DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SO TEMPERATURES
WILL END UP RATHER MILD FOR WHAT IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE PEAK IN
SUMMER HEAT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE MODELS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A
CONTINUED 50H RIDGE WEST/TROUGH EAST PATTERN OVER THE US.
THUS...SUBSIDENCE WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE PIR AND ATY AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE THEY MOVE EAST. ALSO...EXPECT SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN
THE MBG AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL LOCATIONS
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...AS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS THROUGH
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







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