Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 211726 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. BASED ON NAM
SOUNDINGS AND THE CU RULE...SCT TO BKN CLOUDS SEEMS LIKELY ON THE
LEE SIDE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU TODAY. THUS HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER
IN THE NORTHEAST CWA. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER IN THE NE
CWA...HIGHS HAVE BEEN LOWERED AS WELL.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA CURRENTLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ALL NIGHT
WHICH HAS PREVENTED TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECTING SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TODAY
BUT THATS ABOUT IT. WILL SEE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND WINDS
LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COOL OVERNIGHT AS THE
HIGH BEGINS EXITING...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. EXPECT VALLEY AREAS IN
THE EASTERN CWA TO BE THE COOLEST SPOTS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS IN AGAIN ON MONDAY AND WILL BE WATCHING THE
ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. MODELS SHOWING
THIS ENERGY MOVING IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FAIR AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE MODELS IN BRINGING PRECIP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
SD. GFS ON THE DRY SIDE BUT IT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS
POINT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH WED
MORNING. STUCK WITH ALLBLEND AGAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS
AND ECMWF. GFS CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER THAN THE EC
DURING THIS PERIOD. BY WED NIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS
OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS WILL WARM UNDER THE RIDGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WINDS WILL THEN RETURN FROM THE SOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING.
NO CEILING OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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