Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 231736 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1236 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO LOWER POPS THROUGH THE DAY.
WHILE THERE ARE LIGHT ECHOES ON RADAR...BELIEVE TRACE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...MAYBE A LITTLE MORE IS REACHING THE GROUND. THUS REMOVED
POPS AND WILL MENTION SCT SPRINKLES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME
MODELS STILL SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS IS POSSIBLE...MOST HI-RES
MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. HAVE
DECIDED TO LOWER POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR NOW. HAVE ALSO REMOVED
THE MENTION OF THUNDER AS CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

CURRENT WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOWS A DISTINCT WAVE OF ENERGY OVER
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE FEATURE IS WORKING AGAINST
SOME DRIER AIR THOUGH...AND ONLY VERY LIGHT RAINS SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING SOUTH OF OUR CWA. THESE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT
NORTH INTO OUR CWA THIS MORNING...HOWEVER IF THEY DO
PERSIST...COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST.

WEAK ENERGY WILL STREAM AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
OVER OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THEREFORE LOW POPS CONTINUE.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER. VERY LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED WITH
ANY SHOWERS. MOISTURE IS STILL ON TRACK TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH BY SUNDAY MORNING.
PLUS...MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL ON THE NEXT WAVE OF ENERGY WORKING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z-18Z
SUNDAY. HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS RESIDE IN THIS TIME FRAME.
SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF ENERGY WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AND SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. STILL LOOKING PRETTY STABLE
OVERALL...ALTHOUGH MODELS DO TRY TO SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN CAPE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS...BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING...HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE 60S
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN 24 HOURS. THE 00Z SOLUTIONS TONIGHT ARE ALL
STILL RELATIVELY STABLE CONCERNING TEMPS IN THE OUT PERIODS. 850HPA
AND 925HPA THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED /NO MAJOR HEAT WAVES OR
COLD SPELLS DETECTED/. STILL LOOKS LIKE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD...TOO. SUPERBLEND IS
TRYING TO DRY OUT A COUPLE FORECAST PERIODS...BUT STILL SMEARS POPS
ACROSS QUITE A BIT OF THE DAY 3 1/2 TO DAY 7 TIMEFRAME. STILL
THINKING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY MAY END UP
BEING MORE DRY THAN WET...AS WELL AS PERHAPS FROM THE MIDDLE OF
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LOW VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR KPIR WHERE MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE AREA. MVFR CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY SNEAK AS FAR NORTH AS
KMBG THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MVFR CIGS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD TO ALL OTHER TAF SITES AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTH. ONSET OF PRECIP HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE SO DID NOT
INTRODUCE ANY RAIN MENTION AT NORTHERN TAFS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
VSBY MAY FALL TO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE



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