Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 012025
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AFTER 0Z. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR IS LOCATED. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
BECOMING STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. LIMITED
INSTABILITY IN THE EASTERN CWA SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS THAN
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST SIMPLE AND CONTINUE MENTIONING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT.

THERE ARE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MODELS SHOW IN ILL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WHILE OTHERS
HOLD CONVECTION OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH LITTLE
CONFIDENCE...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT ON FRIDAY THANKS TO AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

AN ACTIVE EARLY PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/UPPER TROF
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS WEEKEND.  THE GREATEST MID LEVEL ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...ALONG WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.  BY MONDAY MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE
EXITED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WITH DRIER...COOLER SFC HIGH PRESSURE
FILTERING SOUTH OVER THE REGION. STORMS ENTER THE PICTURE AGAIN LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS MORE S/W ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES LOOK NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...TRENDING TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ALL
TERMINALS. HOWEVER DAYTIME HEATING MY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS.
LATE TONIGHT MORE STRATUS/FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM...LEADING TO
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...PERHAPS EVEN IFR TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK


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