Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD
FXUS63 KABR 231512 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1012 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016
Issued at 1010 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016
No major changes made to the forecast this morning. Adjusted sky
cover a bit to account for an area of low clouds over the south
central CWA. No changes made to winds or temperatures.
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 337 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016
Still dealing with an area of MVFR cigs drifting southward across
the eastern CWA. RAP picking up on this feature and keeps the
potential for SCT/BKN lower clouds across the eastern CWA through
the morning hours. Otherwise, high pressure is building into the
region with cool temps in the 40s and 50s over central SD. This high
will drift southeast across the area today, keeping skies mostly
sunny with light winds and pleasant temperatures.
Upper level ridging builds over the region on Friday. Gusty
southerly winds develop as well as the pressure gradient tightens
between the departing surface high and low pressure off to the west.
Increased wind speeds a bit from guidance based on the synoptic
pattern and frequency of underdoing wind speeds at times. Very warm
air moves into the region on Friday, especially over western and
central SD. By 00Z Saturday, 850mb temps will range from the mid to
upper 20s Celsius over the western CWA. With good mixing winds in
place, will be able to watch temps soar close to 100 degrees over
the western CWA, with 90s widespread east to the James River. Went a
bit warmer than most guidance.
Cold front sweeps east across the area Saturday morning, with gusty
west/northwest winds and cooler temps behind it. Highs will drop
back into the 70s and 80s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016
A fairly quiet long term forecast, as the closing off upper trough
that will over the ND/Manitoba/Saskatchewan border at the start
of the period will move east towards James Bay by Monday
afternoon. The upper low/trough will weaken and slide east
through the New England states Tuesday into Wednesday. Meanwhile,
an upper ridge will build along and west of the U.S. Rockies and
lead to northwesterly flow over the region through the long term
forecast once the upper low shifts east through Sunday.
For Saturday night, dry air will be in place under westerly flow
aloft as the upper low is to the north of the area. All of the
clouds/showers should be well to the north of the area and will
continue to show clear skies. Expect that to continue through the
weekend, along with gusty west-northwest winds until the surface
low departs sunday evening and a surface high moves into the
That weak surface high will remain in place for much of the rest
of the long term forecast. There looks to be a few weak waves
moving through the northwest flow that may lead to a batch of
weak showers/thunderstorms (largely southwest CWA), but the
forecast will largely be dry. With cooler temps aloft in place
behind the upper trough, expect temperatures to be at or a few
degrees below normal for the first half of next week.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 700 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2016
A pocket of mvfr ceilings is sliding south over KATY and should
depart around 14Z. The rest of the sites are VFR and will stay
that way through the period. There is some ground fog west of the
Missouri River between KMBG/KPIR but it doesn`t look like it will
impact those sites. Southeasterly winds will increase this
afternoon and tonight and may produce LLWS at KMBG/KPIR tonight.
Have left out of the TAF for now, but may need to be added in