Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 151644 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1044 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1023 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Current thinking largely aligned with previous discussion
regarding high temps today (much lower than guidance). Have nudged
highs even a tad lower across the area. Otherwise, a low-end
downslope wind event continues across the Coteau. Minimal impacts
are expected. Bumped up highs across this area slightly as morning
temps were already in the mid 20`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 233 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

The large sfc high across MN/IA/WI/IL early this morning will
continue it`s eastern trek, with a ridge remaining overhead through
early Monday. Limited mixing today, along with plenty of snow on the
ground, should keep temperatures from getting into 30s for all but
our far southwestern counties of Lyman and Jones. This is 5-10
degrees lower than much of the available guidance.

Looks like the 500mb ridge and the slower northern trough win out
over our area Monday, allowing the cut of low to the south to stay a
bit farther to the southeast. While the 18Z run of the GFS indicated
the potential for 1-1.5in of snow along our southeastern border, the
00Z run keeps the entire cwa dry other than the southern tip of
Lyman County through Monday morning. This is pretty consistent with
the 00Z model runs, so confidence is increasing that the main impact
from this storm will be well to our south. Do have slight chance of
snow going near and southwest of a line from Lyman to Watertown
Monday afternoon-evening before quickly exiting. Even this may be
overdone given the latest trends.

Expect the 500mb northern trough to slide east across MN through NE
by Tuesday afternoon. Expect a mostly clear sky to return to our
area by late morning/early afternoon, with highs topping out near
30.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 233 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

An upper level ridge will begin to build over the region on
Wednesday. Temperatures will climb into the 30s and 40s under the
ridge, though areas with a deeper snowpack may see the potential
highs moderated a bit.

As the ridge transitions east on Friday, shortwave energy will begin
to eject into the Plains ahead of a deep upper trough. With weak sfc
low pressure in the Plains by the weekend, periods of light snow or
rain will be possible through Sunday. Timing and areal extent of
precip is likely to change in this type of pattern where upper level
energy drives most of the sfc forcing and resulting precip.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 531 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Lueck
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise


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