Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 011736 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1136 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1133 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Aviation discussion updated below for 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1031 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Not much change in conditions through the rest of the day as skies
remain cloudy with very little rise in the temperatures by late
afternoon. Updated forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Generally dry for the area with stratus remaining across the
forecasts area for the day today, into tonight and much of Friday.
BUFKIT profiles suggest we will see the top of this cloud layer toe
the line between ice and super cooled liquid. Thus, any localized
area of weak forcing pivoting around the upper low to the east will
result in a combination of either sprinkles and/or light snow. Minot
area is experiencing some light freezing drizzle which is headed
south, so will have to watch to see if that area holds together over
time.

Warm advection kicks in with a southwest wind component early
Saturday. This will scour/advect out any remaining low clouds.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

There has been lots of uncertainty in the models over the last few
runs, and the latest run is no exception. Right now it looks like a
surface trough will move through dry early in the period, but then
big differences begin to show up concerning a potential system for
the early to mid part of next week. For the time being, will stick
with Superblend pops for that time period, and keep the
precipitation type as light snow.

The early part of the period will feature near to slightly above
normal temperatures, with highs in the 30s Sunday and Monday. Colder
air then begins to filter into the region, with highs in the teens
and 20s Tuesday, and in the single digits and teens on Wednesday.
Overnight lows in the 20s Saturday night and Sunday night will give
way to lows mainly in the single digits Monday night and Tuesday
night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

A mix of low end MVFR and IFR CIGs will continue to affect all TAF
sites through the TAF forecast period. There will also be some
spotty -FZDZ across northern SD this afternoon, possibly affecting
KMBG and KABR. Although, confidence in areal coverage and overall
impacts and actual occurrence is low, so will leave out of TAFs at
this time unless conditions warrant a change.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT/Mohr
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...TMT



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