Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 251149 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
649 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 648 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

12z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 352 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

CWA has been free of precip for the past few hours while the cold
front makes steady eastward progress across the Dakotas. It is
currently moving through the northwest CWA and will be through MBG
soon. Temperatures have remained very mild overnight with most areas
still in the upper 70s to low 80s under breezy south winds.
Actually had some heat bursts across north central SD a few hours
ago with impressive temp climbs into the 90s and gusty winds. A few
sites gusted over 60mph and LSR`s were issued highlighting non-
thunderstorm gusts and impressive heat burst info in the remarks.

Cold front will make steady progress across the CWA this morning,
basically clearing the area by 18Z. Therefore, best thunderstorm
potential this afternoon will be across MN and maybe over the far
eastern CWA but that may be a stretch. Left some low pops in the
forecast through the morning for anything that may develop along the
cold front over the next several hours. Otherwise, severe storms
this afternoon are expected over MN. Main issue over our area today
will be the increased fire danger over central SD as very dry air
moves in behind the cold front. Min RH values are forecast to drop
into the upper teens to low 20s over central SD as gusty west to
northwest winds persist into early evening. Given the status of the
fuels though and how they are not quite in that critical stage, will
bypass any fire weather headlines and beef up wording in the RFD and
HWO instead. Increased highs a few degrees too, especially east
where they will still tap into some warmer air late this morning
into the afternoon. Even in the post-frontal air mass, 925/850 MB
temps are still fairly warm. With good mixing and dry air moving in,
have sided towards the warmest guidance values and even higher in
some places. Also increased winds above guidance much like
yesterday.

Sunday stays breezy and warm as low pressure moves east across
southern Canada. Conditions will remain dry as well with RH values
dropping into the 20s for many areas. Surface high pressure will
drop south out of Canada on Monday. This will bring cooler
temperatures to the region with continued dry conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

The models remain in good agreement and have been consistent with
the upper level flow pattern over our region through the week. An
upper level high pressure area over the southwest U.S. will remain
with a ridge extending north into western Canada. This ridge will
sharpen up through the week along with large upper level troughing
intensifying over eastern Canada and the eastern U.S. which will
keep our region in northwest flow. Thus, cooler Canadian air will
remain through the week with near to below normal temperatures for
late June. Highs will be mostly in the upper 70s to the mid 80s
through the period. The models do show a couple short wave troughs
coming over the western ridge and then southeast across our region
along with a few cold frontal passages through the week. These will
bring chances of showers/storms mainly to the western cwa with the
best chances for rainfall coming Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 648 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

A cold front sweeping across the region will bring west to northwest
winds of 20 to 30 knots today into the early evening before
diminishing. Otherwise, vfr conditions are expected at all locations
through today and tonight.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Mohr



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