Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 212212 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
512 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES THIS EVENING. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP IN NORTH DAKOTA AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO JUST BARELY CROSS
THE BORDER WITH SOME STRONG WINDS BROWN COUNTY WEST. EAST OF BROWN
COUNTY THE LINE MAY DIP FARTHER SOUTH AROUND 9PM THIS EVENING WITH
THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.




&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
STRONG CAP/WARM AIR ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON HOLDING EVERYTHING BACK
SO FAR ACROSS OUR CWA WITH ALL OF THE STORMS CONFINED TO ND. WITH
A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN NC SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON
HEADING NORTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL MN BY MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH VERY
UNSTABLE AIR OVER OUR REGION...WILL CONTINUE WITH STORM CHANCES
ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA
STILL HAS THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS THIS EVENING. IF STORMS
DEVELOP...THEY COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. OTHERWISE...GOOD CAA
IN THE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER
AIR WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FOR TUESDAY AND THEN BUILD SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. SHOULD END UP
WITH SOME UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR THE EASTERN CWA FOR
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
OF THE REGION. RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
WAA AND SUPPORT ALOFT WILL BRING BACK CHANCES OF STORMS FOR THE
CWA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.



.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MOST OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE 12Z
GFS AND MODEL GUIDANCE FROM ALLBLEND. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS
UNAVAILABLE FOR THE FORECAST.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE REGION WITH WAA
SPREADING INTO THE AREA. FAIRLY GOOD ISENTROPIC FORCING ALONG WITH
A WEAK H7 S/W COULD RESULT IN CONVECTION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. A STRONGER S/W AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AROUND 2000 J/KG OF SURFACE
BASED CAPE AND 30-35 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR COULD RESULT IN
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE STILL ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

PREVAILING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY...TO SOUTHERLY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EASTWARD
ALONG THE ND/SD STATE LINE THIS EVENING. WINDS BEHIND THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15 KNOTS.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE ND/SD STATE LINE.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-
     BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-
     GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-MARSHALL-
     MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






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