Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 240534 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1234 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1234 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

06z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 934 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

No changes planned to the tonight period forecast low
temperatures. Skycover should remain generally partly to mostly
clear while light southeasterly winds develop. The low to mid-
level waa and low level moisture advection set-up on a developing
low level jet overnight lends support to some isolated to
scattered elevated shower and thunderstorm development /accas-
type convection/ during the late night/early morning timeframe.
But confidence remains too low regarding just where/when to
introduce some small pops into the overnight forecast, so planning
to hold off for the moment and keep the dry forecast going. Should
the fog product satellite imagery and/or radar start to suggest
development, will add something in.

UPDATE Issued at 607 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

See below for an updated aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

Still a few clouds in place over the area...but are dissipating this
afternoon...leading to a mostly clear sky tonight under a slowly
exiting surface high. The pressure gradient between this high and
low pressure to the west will tighten up on Friday...making for a
breezy to windy day. Strong WAA also develops with temperatures
rising into the upper 80s east to the upper 90s west Friday
afternoon. Heat indicies may approach advisory criteria across the
southwestern CWA...but would be just for an hour or two over a
fairly small area...so have opted to hold off on issuing an advisory
for now and let later shifts have a chance to reevaluate further.
Main challenge then becomes precipitation chances as the low and
associated frontal boundary track across the area. A strong cap will
be in place ahead of the front...so precipitation chances will be
minimal until late Friday night into Saturday with its passage.
There will be some instability around...but better shear will lag
well behind the front...therefore have just gone with small pops for
now. Weak high pressure moves in behind the exiting system...making
for a dry night Saturday night.

As mentioned above...temperatures will be very warm on Friday...with
highs from the upper 80s east to the upper 90s west. Cooler air
returns behind the front on Saturday...with highs mainly in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

Northwest flow aloft will dominate the long term portion of the
forecast. A few shortwave will slide southeastward across the region
with thunderstorms possible. While nearly every model shows a
shortwave Tuesday night/Wednesday, the differ on placement. This
leads to a broad brush approach to pops during that time period. The
GFS is currently the strongest models with this shortwave with a
concentrated area of two plus inches of QPF.

While temperatures appear on the cool side next week, they will
average within a few degrees of normal. Temperatures may climb above
normal by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

Expect VFR flying weather to persist throughout the taf valid
period. A llj across western and central South Dakota will promote
some low level windshear conditions through mid morning mainly at
KPIR and KMBG. Also, there remains some potential for elevated
convection on the llj over portions of central and north central
South Dakota through sun up. For now, have introduced some thunder
mention in the KMBG taf.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Mohr


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