Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 011440 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
940 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WX AND POP GRIDS THIS
MORNING TO INCORPORATE MENTION OF THE ONGOING SHOWERS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HEAVY-
RAIN CAPABLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER
THE FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST ZONES. UPDATES ARE OUT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY SOAR INTO THE 80S AND 90S OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THURSDAY POTENTIALLY BEING THE WARMEST DAY.
THESE READINGS ARE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME YEAR.

WHILE THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS DRY...SOME CAMS ARE
SUGGESTING ISO/SCT CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ LATER
TONIGHT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THIS CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD...STALLING OVER THE CWA LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY GETTING PUSHED EAST OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO
BE DRY...THEN CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. HAVE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND POPS.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS WAA WILL BE IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WILL THEN SEE A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY...AND IN THE 70S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MAINLY IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME AREAS OF EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS DUE TO FOG
AROUND KABR AND POSSIBLY KATY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN



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