Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 231618 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1018 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE
RISING QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH ALL AREAS ALREADY IN THE 30S.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING IS PRODUCING
PLENTY OF ECHOES ON THE REGIONAL RADAR. HOWEVER VERY DRY AIR BELOW
700 MB IS RESULTING IN LITTLE PCPN REACHING THE GROUND. THERE IS BETTER
LLM LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA SO WILL
MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS SCHC POP. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TODAY RESULTING IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S...TO THE UPPER
40S. FAIRLY GOOD NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD PRODUCE A MILD
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO LACK DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE NAM NOW BEING THE OUTLIER AS IT IS BASICALLY DRY. THE
GEM/ECMWF HAVE THE BEST RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY SO WILL RELY ON
THESE MODELS FOR THIS EVENT. THESE MODELS SHOW PCPN REACHING NORTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND 18Z SATURDAY. THIS PCPN SHOULD
QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA BY 0Z. THE DOMINANT P-TYPE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN...HOWEVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CWA COULD
SEE A WINTRY MIX. AT THIS TIME ONLY MINOR SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

FOR THE MOST PART THE LATEST SUITE OF LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT...LENDING PERHAPS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE
FORECAST. NEAR REX BLOCK LIKE LONG WAVE PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD DOES BREAK DOWN AS ENERGY OFF THE BAHA PENINSULA
GETS BOOTED NORTHEAST INTO THE CONUS. HOWEVER FOR THE MOST PART
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH MOST OF
THE TIME SPAN. THERE ARE A COUPLE SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH. THE FIRST
IS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT BOTH THE GFS/GEM ARE DRY. SO FOR NOW WILL GO DRY. THE
SYSTEM THAT EJECTS FROM OFF BAHA NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS DOES
MAKE ITS WAY NORTH INTO CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY. HOWEVER
AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED CHANCES FOR PCPN ARE
NOT GOOD...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THUS WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN
AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...PERHAPS
EVEN SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY BASED ON PROGGED H85
AND H925 TEMPS.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






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