Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 240903
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
403 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CURRENT WATER VAPOR DEPICTS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE UTAH/COLORADO/WYOMING BORDERS. ENERGY
EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THIS MAIN LOW WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
PRECIPITATION TODAY. DEWPOINTS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION HAVE
CLIMBED BACK INTO THE 50S...AND OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW A
SATURATED COLUMN. MODEL DATA 24 HOURS AGO SUGGESTED A MUCH MORE
DEFINED BAND OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA BY THIS TIME FRAME...SO
THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHWARD THIS MORNING SEEM
RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE. CONTINUED THE MUCH SLOWER TREND OF POPS INTO
TODAY...AND STILL THIS MAY BE A LITTLE FAST AND MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED. THE MODERATE TO WEAK 700-500 MB OMEGA CONTINUES TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS SOME GREATER QPF
POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITATION WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE ENTIRE FORECAST REMAINS
LOW. IT DOES APPEAR THAT DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK INTO THE REGION BY
THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME...BUT AGAIN...SOME LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WARRANTS A LOW POP AT THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S TODAY AND MONDAY WITH
ALL THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER. BY TUESDAY THEY SHOULD RISE BACK INTO
THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THERE APPEARS TO BE A LIGHT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
TUNNEL...RESPECTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AFTER A DRY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE DEVELOPING OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES OR MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ZONES EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. REASON: THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BE IN PLAY ON A DEVELOPING/DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF ALL
GENERATE AT 15 TO 30 KNOTS LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR CONVECTION TO ANCHOR ITSELF ON. THERE ARE ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SWITCHES GEARS TO NORTHWEST
FLOW FOR A SHORT TIME HEADING INTO THE LAST WEEKEND OF MAY.
SUPERBLEND HAS ALL THIS HANDLED FAIRLY WELL. ALSO NOTING THE MODELS
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...SIGNALING SOME COOLER/DRIER AIR WORKING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO SUNDAY MORNING AT ALL LOCATIONS TO IFR
AS LIFT FROM A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE
ALSO EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD FALL TO 3 TO 5 MILES OR EVEN LOWER AT TIMES IN
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN


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