Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 260124 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
824 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING QUICKLY THIS EVENING...WITH PLACES IN
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ALREADY IN THE MID 40S. EXPECT THAT THE QUICK
DOWNWARD TREND WILL LEVEL OFF ONCE THE SOUTHERLY PICK UP
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND DROP THE LOWS BY ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ALL
OTHER FORECAST FIELDS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.

SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL THEN BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHEAST
WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. A COUPLE ISSUES
TO DEAL WITH ON SUNDAY THAT MAKE THE FORECAST A BIT TRICKY. 850 MB
TEMPS SOAR INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY
MIXING WINDS. TEMPS SHOULD SOAR WELL INTO THE 70S AND STILL FEEL
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE TOO COOL IN SOME SPOTS. SOUNDINGS
AND RH FIELDS TRYING TO INDICATE MOISTENING AROUND 850 MB
SUGGESTING THE THREAT OF SCT TO BKN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
ANY CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND THEIR AREAL COVERAGE IS RATHER LOW. HAVE
NONETHELESS INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT ACROSS THE EAST TO SHOW
POSSIBILITY OF THIS. IF CLOUDS WERE TO DEVELOP INTO A BKN
NATURE...HIGHS ACROSS THE EAST MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM. ALSO
WATCHING HOW MODELS ARE SHOWING IN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH DEWPOINTS SURGING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50 DEGREES. AM A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THIS RIGHT NOW AS MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THIS DRY FALL
PATTERN WITH DRY GROUND. ASSUMING DEWPOINTS ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH
AS CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...RH VALUES WILL BE
MUCH LOWER AND FIRE WEATHER WILL BECOME A CONCERN. ONLY AREA WHERE
RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST AROUND 20 PERCENT IS THE
SOUTHWEST FIRE ZONE. BUT HERE...AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE
TERRIBLY STRONG AS THEY WILL BE IN THE LULL IN WINDS WITHIN THE
SFC TROUGH.

COOLER AIR STILL ON TRACK TO BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY AS WELL. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ASIDE FROM A POSSIBLE TRANSIENT CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ANCHORED ROUGHLY ON WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD
APPEARS TO BE DRY WHILE THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT TAKES ON A RATHER
AMPLIFIED NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW DIRECTION OVER THIS CWA. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...NO MAJOR WARM UPS IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RUNNING MAINLY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
OCTOBER/EARLY NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY REAL
CONCERN IS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE OF
CONCERN AFTER 6Z FOR KPIR AND KMBG...AND AFTER 9Z FOR KABR AND
KATY. NO RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS OR VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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