Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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757
FXUS63 KABR 080528 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1128 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 917 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SNOW REMAINS CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN CWA...MAINLY ALONG THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION...THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AND WEATHER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED
SOME...BUT WILL LET HIGH WIND WARNING RIDE UNTIL ITS EXPIRATION
TIME MIDNIGHT. NO CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

CHALLENGE REMAINS THE WINDS/SNOW IN THE EAST.  FOR TNT WILL BE
DOWNGRADING THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO AN ADVISORY.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT SNOWFALL PREDICTIONS WILL BE MET AND THUS SUSTAINED LONG TERM
SIGNIFICANT VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY OVERNIGHT. STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE WINDS GUSTY INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  AND AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH SOME HEATING WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN...BUT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOSTLY ENDED.  MONDAY SHOULD BE
MOSTLY DRY...BUT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ALOFT MAY PROVIDE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MO RVR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THIS IS MORE PREVALENT IN THE GFS/GEM VS THE ECMWF.  SUSPECT SFC
HIGH TO THE EAST WILL SEVERELY LIMIT ANY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE
PCPN BAND AND THUS IT SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY MUCH LOCKED UP OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.  TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
WILL BE CHILLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE COLD SFC HIGH BACK
DOORS INTO THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.  HIGHS OVER THE EAST
SHOULD END UP BELOW NORMAL...PARTICULARLY FOR HIGHS. STRONG MID
LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EAST LATER IN THE PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO
MILDER AIR.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A VERY AMPLIFIED RIDGE (WEST) AND TROUGH (EAST) PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THAT WILL PLACE THE
CWA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT
WEEKEND. THAT WILL LEAD TO THE REGION SEEING A COUPLE WEAK WAVES
ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE AND DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT DON/T EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...WHICH WILL AID LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHEN ANY
FORCING MOVES THROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA (FROM A HIGH CENTERED IN NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA (UNTIL IT DROPS INTO MINNESOTA THIS WEEKEND) WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THE PRECIP CHANCES OVER FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.
MODELS DIFFER ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE WEAK WAVES...SO WILL ONLY
INCLUDE OCCASIONAL SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR NOW.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WELL OFF TO THE EAST...THE COLDEST
AIR IS EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES. THAT LEAVES SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG THE GRADIENT OF THE WARM
AIR TO THE WEST AND COLD AIR TO THE EAST. THUS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RUN AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SHOULD SEE A TRANSITION BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...LIKE WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST 1-2 WEEKS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AN AREA OF SNOWFALL WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 25 TO 40 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.
WHERE THERE IS ALSO SNOW FALLING...VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE
REDUCED DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR
     SDZ003>007-009>011-015>019-033>037-045-048-051.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR SDZ008-020>023.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...FLEEGEL
AVIATION...PARKIN



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