Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 121548 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1048 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. ALTHOUGH...THEY STILL LOOK TO AFFECT FAR NORTHEAST
SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. ALSO...AREAS THIS
MORNING THAT HAVE SEEN THE MOST SUNSHINE WILL SOON FILL IN WITH CU
OR STRATOCU CLOUDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR SOME POSSIBLE
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SOME OF THESE
CUMULUS CLOUDS. CURRENT HIGHS APPEAR ON TRACK AND VERY LITTLE
CHANGES NEEDED THERE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

REMOVED MOST OF THE FROST ADVISORY AS WINDS NEVER DECOUPLED AND
CLOUD COVER HAS LINGERED ALL NIGHT. ONLY FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
WILL STILL SEE THE OPPORTUNITY AS CLEARING WORKS INTO THAT REGION
SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE.

A FEW LIGHT INSTABILITY SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IF WE GET SUNSHINE
TODAY THANKS TO COLD AIR ALOFT. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE
ANY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW A FEW
SPOTS IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO DROP IN TEMPS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR
FROST BEFORE WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN AND TEMPS LEVEL OFF.

A WEAK SURFACE TROF WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. MIXING MAY
HELP GET TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL DESPITE WEAK COLD
ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DROP OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD...BUT WILL THEN SEE A WARMING TREND BEGIN ON
MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 60S ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 70S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN
THE MODELS THAT PRECIPITATION MAY RETURN TO THE AREA TOWARD THE
VERY END OF THE PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE TIMING AND LOCATION
DIFFERENCES...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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