Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 170525 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1125 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES FORTHCOMING FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD FORECAST.
FOR NOW...TEMPS ARE IN THE BALLPARK. READINGS OVER THE EAST MAY
END UP A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST...BUT OBSERVED TEMPS
RIGHT NOW ARE BEHAVING THEMSELVES.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE FOR
THE SHORT RANGE. FOR TNT COLD SFC HIGH SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH NEW SNOW COVER TO PRODUCE SOME
PRETTY COLD TEMPERATURES. OUT WEST WHERE LOW CLOUD DECK HAS HUNG
STRONG...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO BE HELD UP SOME. SNOW COVER IS
LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME IN THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY
TOO...ESPECIALLY WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A WEAK WAVE AND CONSEQUENT TROP FOLD
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION. AFTER LOOKING AT VARIOUS PLAN
VIEW AND TIME HEIGHT MODEL DATA...AS WELL AS BUFR SOUNDINGS AM NOT
TOO HIP ON MEASURABLE PCPN. MAYBE SOME FLURRIES BUT NOT WORTH THE
MENTION FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS CANADIAN AIR GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK TOO
DRY TO RESULT IN ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION. A POTENTIALLY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAKING THE WEST TO EAST TRACK
ACROSS THE CONUS...ARRIVING OVER THE CENTRAL US BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS HAVE A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN...ESPECIALLY THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THE ECMWF IS COLDER
THAN THE GFS...WHICH CURRENTLY WOULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN
OR SNOW...OR A MIX THEREOF. SOMETHING TO KEEP TRACK OF IN THE
COMING WEEK. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES DO SHOW A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KABR/KATY...FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE WITH COLD/DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD VFR CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISBIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR OVERNIGHT FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE TRENDS TO SEE IF
NOCTURNAL FOG/STRATUS ENDS UP DEVELOPING OR NOT.

KMBG...MVFR STRATUS APPEARS TO BE ERODING NEAR THIS TERMINAL. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...KMBG WILL BE JOINING KABR/KATY IN GOOD VFR
BY OR BEFORE 09Z.

KPIR...LARGE SWATH OF MVFR STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH
DAKOTA...INCLUDING THIS TERMINAL...AND SHOWS NO SIGNS OF MOVING
OUT ANY TIME SOON. WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE HERE AS WELL...AND
MAINTAIN AN MVFR CIG FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OR UNTIL
CIGS FINALLY CLEAR OFF.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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