Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 241523 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1023 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLOWLY INCREASING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S
WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY

RATHER UNEVENTFUL PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT
TO THE WEST...WEST/NORTHWEST ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MIXED DOWN WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15MPH WITH
GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S...BUT THATS THE WORST OF IT. EFFICIENT
MIXING TODAY WILL ALSO RESULT IN HIGHS SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO READINGS WILL STILL BE AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WE WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION FOR
SUNDAY...THOUGH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT MIXING
POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PERIOD OPENS WITH A BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER
LOW THAT FOLLOWS THIS FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER. MODELS ARE KEEPING THE
BULK OF THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON THIS RUN. STUCK WITH
MODEL BLEND FOR CONSISTENCY BUT IF THE TREND CONTINUES COULD SEE
BACKING OFF EVEN FURTHER ON POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO JUST
BELOW AVERAGE WITH THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SFC LOW MOVING IN ON WED AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR GROUND FOG NEAR KABR
EARLY THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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