Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 210154 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
854 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

Forecast is in fine shape so no major changes this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

A warm front/inverted trof has developed over the CWA and is
expected to migrate somewhat as one surface low dissipates with
another lee side low developing in central Nebraska. Profiles
continue to support stable conditions in the low levels with a high
moisture content nosing into the forecast area, so will continue
to mention clouds/stratus developing over mainly the eastern CWA.
This is expected to mix out somewhat during the day Wednesday,
however warm advection at 700mb will result in those temperatures
warming upwards of +12C. This warm advection push could result in
an isolated elevated shower or thunderstorm in the morning. We
will see an upper wave move around the subtropical ridge, from the
desert southwest. This features timing is somewhat delayed
compared to previous iterations of the forecast, so now looks like
there will be an additional chance for elevated
shower/thunderstorm activity in the afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

At the start of the period, widespread cloud cover is expected to be
ongoing across the forecast area, and persist well into Thursday
night. This will impact temperatures by keeping the lid on any
warming during the day and keep temperatures from falling off all
that much Thursday night. During the day on Friday, models are
depicting low level waa on strong southerly winds. This could
potentially push cloudiness northward out of this cwa, or at the
very least, out of central and south central South Dakota where
ingredients supportive of strong to potentially severe convection
will be coming together. Convective chances persist right on through
Friday night into Saturday mainly along and ahead of a cold front
forecast to trudge eastward across the region.

Precipitation chances should really start to wane by the start of
next week. There is considerable model solution variability by next
Tuesday, so will lean on Superblend`s more middle of the road
approach for max/min temperatures and precipitation chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

VFR conditions are expected through most of the night. However,
KATY/KPIR may see patchy MVFR/IFR cigs toward sunrise on
Wednesday. VFR vsbys are expected through tonight.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...TDK



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