National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KABR 121551 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1051 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.UPDATE...
INCREASED HIGHS FOR TODAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO
HELP TEMPS REACH MAXIMUM POTENTIAL TODAY. ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS
AND RESULTING RH CONSIDERABLY.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FIRE WEATHER IS CHIEF CONCERN...THUS WILL INCLUDE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION IN THIS MORNINGS AFD. TODAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD RESPONSIBLE FOR VERY COLD AM TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE
EAST...SHOULD SEE MODERATING TEMPERATURES TODAY. H85 TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY MONDAY AS WEAK SURFACE TROF MOVES OUT OF
THE ROCKIES. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP FROM ABOUT +0 TO +4C
TONIGHT TO +18 TO +22C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN WEAK LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS...WITH MOISTURE ABOVE 8 TO
10KFT. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAVE US WITH A DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER HOWEVER...SO ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE VIRGA. MODEL MOISTURE
SEEM TO BE A SIGNIFICANTLY OVERDONE WITH DEWPOINTS TOPPING
60F...AND PWATS APPROACHING 1 INCH. ANOTHER SURGE IN H85
TEMPERATURES...THIS TIME ACCOMPANIED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
COMES TUESDAY. H85 TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK AROUND +26C WITH THE
FORMATION OF A LOW LEVEL JET OF AROUND 40KTS. EFFICIENT MIXING
FOLLOWS A COLD FRONT MID DAY TUESDAY...WITH BUFKIT MIXED WINDS
RUNNING BETWEEN 20 AND 40 KTS.



.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS. A SURFACE FRONT WILL HAVE JUST
MOVED THROUGH...AND DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE...NOT EXPECTING ANY
POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER FLOW THEN REMAINS NEARLY
ZONAL UNTIL WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE
RIDGING WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE PLAINS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS
TO THE TIMING AND PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
GFS CURRENTLY INDICATES DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ON
SATURDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION MENTION AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

NOT A LOT OF VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AS H85 TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE TEENS. GENERALLY EXPECTING 70S FOR HIGHS EACH
DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.





&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO
10 MPH BY MID TO LATE MORNING.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN