Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 170146 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
846 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

No major changes this evening. Did add spkls and isold showers to
the forecast earlier, but those look to be pretty much done by 9
or 10 pm as diabatic influence continues to wane. Temperatures
generally look fine.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

A weak system moving through the area is responsible for some
mid/high clouds, and area radars indicate some showers but NAM
profiles suggest a dry layer of 5-8kft to overcome so anticipate
most of the area seeing virga and sprinkles.  There is a front
moving across the area, and while there isn`t much cold advection,
its certainly enhancing mixing. This will keep us mild overnight.

Neutral/weak cold advection will have little influence on the
regions temperatures for Friday, however northwest low level flow
will favor better mixing conditions so highs will be a tad milder
across the area with snow cover while cooler for southwest counties.
The main impact will be the stronger winds for Friday. With 1/2km
winds between 30-45kts from southwest to northeast, and NAM BUFKIT
profiles supporting mixing up to 4kft - with mixed winds topping out
around 40kts - we may see a few spots stray into wind advisory
criteria mid day.

Saturday will feature return flow, though with a southeast
component, probably not the most favorable mixing conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 343 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

Sunday continues to look like a warm day across the cwa as a cold
front makes its way across the region. Highs should range from the
upper 50s to around 70 degrees before caa kicks in. There may be a
little light rain/sprinkles with the cold front as it comes through.
Northwest winds will also become breezy/windy in the afternoon and
evening. Otherwise, Canadian high pressure will build into and then
to the east of the region from Sunday night through Tuesday night.
This will bring cooler conditions for both Monday and Tuesday with
highs mainly in the 40s. This time period also looks to be mainly
dry. WAA light snow/light rain will move from west to east across
the CWA from late Tuesday night into Wednesday evening. The models
all then show a large upper level low pressure trough from the
southwest U.S. moving into our region late Wednesday night into
Thursday night bringing good chances of precipitation back for
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2017

VFR conditions are expected through most of the period. Meanwhile,
overnight some LLWS is probable at all terminals given gusty winds
above the surface vs much lighter winds near ground level. A batch
of lower clouds may drift into the northeast part of South Dakota
on Friday, but confidence is not high at this point.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...TDK



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