Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 121826
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
126 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rainfall chances for Wednesday/Thursday (20% north to 40% south)
with low moisture totals, a tenth of an inch or less most areas
south. Sprinkles further north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

The main focus is the system that will affect the forecast area
Wednesday night into Thursday. The models are really backing off the
northern extent of any precipitation as the split flow becomes more
pronounced over northern SD cutting things off to the south. Dry air
at the sfc will also limit chances of any significant rainfall in
the forecast area. Northeast flow at the sfc will increase as well
Wednesday evening as the SFC low tightens up over western KS.

With the above said, POPS will be trended downward for the entire
area, with best chances along and south of Highway 14 for Wednesday
night.

Temps will remain above normal for Wednesday as well, close to
todays temps but a bit cooler west.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

The long term portion of the forecast begins on Thursday with an
area of low pressure south of the CWA, with perhaps trowal pcpn
impacting east central SD and south central SD. While the grand
ensemble still shows a 20 to 30% chance for pcpn, some CAMS are
coming in drier on Thursday. If the rainfall fails to materialize,
then fire weather could be heightened on Thursday due to a 40 to 90
percent chance wind gusts will exceed 25 mph. As of now, RH values
should exceeding 50 percent.

A clipper system should pass north and east of the region Friday
through Saturday, bringing above average temps on Friday, with
colder temperatures moving in for the weekend. Westerly winds and
warm low level temperatures should produce highs in the mid 40s to
the mid 50s. The probability of wind gusts exceeding 25 mph is 40 to
90 percent, mainly along and north of Highway 12. The winds and dry
airmass will cause another fire weather day. A cold front will slide
southward across the area Friday night through Saturday with winds
shifting to the northwest. There is a 20 to 50 percent change of
wind gusts exceeding 40 mph on Saturday. Colder temperatures will
pour into the area on Sunday with highs only warming into the 30s.
These readings are 5 to 10 degrees below average. Some deterministic
models are showing scattered snow showers on Sunday, which appears
possible with steep low level lapse rates. Slightly warmer
temperatures should move into the area on Monday with highs in the
30s and 40s. Highs in the 40s and 50s will be possible on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail through the period.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Scarlett
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Scarlett


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