Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 240032 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
732 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

FORECAST ON TRACK. NO CHANGES PLANNED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DROPPING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL THEN
BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE
EAST TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE WEST. TUESDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S EAST TO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S WEST. THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS WILL BE COOL WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 40S...THEN WILL SEE A LITTLE WARMER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SCHEDULED TO DAMPEN THE RIDGE AND TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SOMEWHERE IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE TRACK AND POSITION OF THE FEATURE. THE GFS
KEEPS THE WAVE FURTHER SOUTH /LIMITING MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTING
IN A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER/ WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS A BIT FURTHER
NORTH WITH THE TRAJECTORY. OTHERWISE...THE LONG TERM IS MAINLY
DRY...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. PERHAPS SOME INDICATION
OF A WARMING TREND BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DECREASE THROUGH DARK.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...DORN


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