Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 120213 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
913 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 911 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Just a few isolated showers/weak thunderstorms hanging on yet this
evening across parts of the CWA, so have adjusted POPs
accordingly. Otherwise, no changes made to the forecast at this
time.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

Rain chances and QPF placement are the main challenges through
Sunday. For tonight expect a few showers/storms to make it east
into the western CWA toward mid evening. For now it appears this
activity will be below severe limits given lack of good
LLM/instability. For Saturday, upper low will continue to drift
south toward the region. Out ahead of this system we do get some
moisture return via east/se breezes. However, mid level lapse
rates and MLcapes remain weak to only moderate. Deep layer shear,
on the other hand, does increase decently as H85/H5 winds
increasing a head of that upper low.

Models are all over the place with QPF placement with this
system. Cams don`t look much like the non convection allowing
models, therefore confidence in QPF maximums and their location
is somewhat low. However, coverage should be pretty decent and
thus likely POPs in the forecast look perfectly acceptable.
Temperatures should favor below normal (especially for highs)
through Sunday given expected cloud cover and pcpn.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

The period begins with an upper level trough departing the region to
the east, with an upper level ridge building in the west. The weak
upper level ridge will cross the region on Monday with dry
conditions expected. A strong upper level trough over western Canada
will progress eastward Monday night through Wednesday. This
trough, along with a frontal boundary will bring showers and
thunderstorms to the region. While widespread severe storms are
not expected, high PWATS, along with a slow storm motion, may
produce moderate to heavy rainfall. Zonal flow develops behind
this system with warmer temperatures moving into the region. Highs
by Friday could reach the mid to upper 80s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

For the most part, VFR conditions will prevail across the area
tonight and Saturday. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
tonight will become more widespread across the area on Saturday.
Periods of MVFR vsbys in rain will be possible with the
thunderstorms.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Parkin



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