Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KABR 240549 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1249 AM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

THINGS HAVE CALMED DOWN A BIT BUT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN
PROBABLY THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LOOKING
CLOSELY AND NEW MODEL DATA ONCE IT COMES IN. OUT WEST THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO HAVE PRETTY MUCH ENDED SO CANCELLED THE
FLOOD WATCH. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
CURRENT OBS ARE SHOWING SLOW PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. THE LOW IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED WITH A
COUPLE OF WINDS SHIFTS/FRONTS SETTING UP. THE FIRST EXTENDS FROM
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND ANOTHER WARM
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD THERE HAS BEEN SOME ENHANCED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA...HOWEVER ONLY SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE AT THIS POINT. WITH MOST OF THE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION
NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL
COUNTIES EXCEPT CORSON AND DEWEY...WHERE RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES
ANYWHERE BETWEEN 2 TO 5 INCHES HAVE OCCURRED.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME THINNING AND BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF OUR
CWA /TEMPERATURE AT KHON IS CURRENTLY 81 DEGREES VS. TEMPERATURE AT
KATY ONLY 72 DEGREES/. AS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT THE SPC MESO
ANALYSIS PAGE IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE TO NO SURFACE BASED CAPE
ACROSS OUR CWA...SO CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE BASED STORMS IS LOW. AT
THE VERY LEAST...WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA TONIGHT AS WELL AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILES...ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT. PWATS REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH /NEAR 2 INCHES/ SO HEAVY
RAIN REMAINS A THREAT WITH STORMS TONIGHT AS WELL. AS DOES LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF CAM MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF STORMS TONIGHT. THEY
AGREE FAIRLY WELL...WITH THE STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AROUND 00Z...REACHING THE FAR EASTERN CWA BY THE 06Z-
09Z TIME PERIOD.

THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE THE MAIN UPPER LOW THERE
IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST CWA SUNDAY.

THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY...WITH
THE RETURN OF POPS TO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. COOL AIR FILTERS SOUTH THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE LONG TERM FEATURES A COOL PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A WARM UP LATE IN
THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOWS A GOOD LOW PRESSURE
AREA/TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US EJECTING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
US FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH
A DRIER NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE
IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THIS UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LESSER
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN CWA. OTHERWISE...COOL SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY BUILD EAST THROUGH THE
WEEK ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST SHOULD KEEP IT MOSTLY DRY ALONG WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S
FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.


&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH EARLY MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT BOTH KABR/KATY. BY MID MORNING ON SUNDAY
THE CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD LIFT AS RAIN MOVES AWAY. FOR KPIR/KMBG A FEW
EARLY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND PERHAPS ISOLATED LOW CIGS...BUT THE
TREND IS FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.