Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 290214 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
914 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Issued at 911 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Precipitation has exited the southwestern CWA this
have adjusted pops to account for dry conditions for at least the
next few hours. Models continue to hint at the potential for
redevelopment across the west will leave small pops
in. No changes made to winds or temperatures at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Main issue in the short range will be pcpn/convection. For tonight
already have storms forming over the front range of the Rockies.
Those storms may consolidate into an MCS and track e/SE toward
western/northern Nebraska overnight. Some models still maintain
convection over parts of the ABR CWA later this evening and
overnight due to weak WAA.  Just how far to bring this activity east
is the question. Airmass over the eastern CWA is quite stable and
suspect any activity that makes it east of the Missouri River
valley will have a tough time getting all the way to the James
Valley. On Wednesday forecast confidence is quite low.  There is a
weak wave forecast to clip the northeast CWA, and some models do
crank out afternoon pcpn despite relatively stable airmass. For
Wednesday night into Thursday a stronger wave off to the east will
force a frontal boundary to slide south over the forecast area. Once
again models look pretty pathetic concerning convergence along that
boundary with little to no LLJ forecast.  Behind the front a dry and
mild surface high will build across the region with tranquil
conditions expected for 24 to 36 hours.  Temperatures will trend
from near normal on Wednesday, to near or slightly below normal for
the rest of the work week.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

An active weather pattern is expected through the long term portion
of the forecast. A series of shortwaves will traverse across the
region with several chances for showers and thunderstorms. The GFS
is more aggressive with shortwaves and thus wetter than the ECMWF.
While there are pops in every period in the extended...the Holiday
weekend will not be a total washout. Even with the active pattern,
temperatures will average above normal through the long term.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

For the most part...VFR conditions will prevail across the area
tonight and through the day Wednesday. The exception will be
across the southwestern CWA...where showers and a few
thunderstorms are expected. Cigs and vsbys may briefly fall into
the MVFR category with the stronger storms.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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