Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 310514 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1214 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Issued at 824 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

Line of storms moving east this evening moving into less favorable
environment. Have not had many severe reports this evening.
Cancelled the western part of the watch this evening.

UPDATE Issued at 658 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

00z aviation discussion updated below.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 318 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

Storms now beginning to develop across western and central portions
of the state in association with a cold front. Models are in good
agreement that this activity will line out and track eastward across
the state through the evening and early overnight hours. MUCAPE has
increased to 3000+ J/KG across the Missouri river area...along with
some increase in low level shear. Expect the line of storms will
have the potential to produce large hail and gusty winds through its
life span late this afternoon into tonight. The low pressure system
will swing northward late tonight with some precipitation on the
back side of it possibly affecting the northwestern CWA Tuesday

Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 40s northwest to
the upper 50s east. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the
mid 60s northwest to the mid 70s east.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

The upper low is expected to continue to pull out of the region on
Wednesday. In its wake, cold air advection will continue with the
coolest temps of the week. Winds will be breezy from the northwest.

The trend of the western CONUS ridge rebounding through the period
looks good. This will leave most of the region under northwest flow,
with warmest temps in the west, trending cooler east. The threat of
thunderstorms in the northwest flow are too tricky to time at this
moment, but I would expect some thunderstorms possible later this
week and weekend. Pops will remain low at this time however.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Vfr conditions are expected through tonight and Tuesday. Breezy
southwest winds are expected on Tuesday with some sct to ocnl bkn
mixed layer clouds. There may be some showers move into the MBG area
later in the afternoon and evening.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Scarlett
AVIATION...TDK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.