Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 170537 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1237 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

LOWERED MIN T VALUES CWA-WIDE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...AND THEN
SHAVED A COUPLE MORE DEGREES OUT OF THE ALWAYS COLDER JAMES RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT. CLOUDS ARE CLEARING OFF QUICKER THAN
ANTICIPATED...SO SHOULDN`T HAVE A PROBLEM SEEING MUCH OF THE
REGION DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKING
THROUGH PROVIDES MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW...SO WIND SPEEDS MAY
DROP OFF TO 5 TO 10 MPH LATE...BUT SHOULDN`T SEE ANY LONG TERM
CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS SETTING UP. JUST A PERIOD OF
WINDS SWITCHING AROUND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD MORNING.
UPDATES ARE OUT.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
THE SURFACE LOW IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE SD/NE/IA BORDER...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THOUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA...WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND NOW
OVER SOUTHERN DEUEL COUNTY AND WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR
THE COUNTIES INCLUDING HAMLIN...CODINGTON...ROBERTS AND AREAS
EASTWARD. WHILE DEUEL COUNTY MAY STILL PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR TWO...GENERALLY THINKING AN INCH OR LESS OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION FOR THE REMAINING COUNTIES. MSAS SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES AROUND 5 MB WILL ENSURE WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF.

RETURN FLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA MAY RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...POSSIBLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING MOVES EAST. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA FOR NOW.

BEGAN TRENDING TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE ON FRIDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION AND MODELS SHOW THE 925
MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...TO THE 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE MIXING WIND...BUT
STILL THINK THE SOUTHWEST CWA SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE
60S...IF NOT 70S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PATTERN REMAINS VERY ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD OPENS
WITH ONE SYSTEM EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING SOME CHANCES OF
RAIN IN THE EAST FOR THE MORNING. THEN CONDITIONS DRY OUT AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM
OF CONCERN IN MODEL GUIDANCE WILL NOT MOVE IN UNTIL THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LEE SIDE TROUGHING BEGINS TO SET
UP ON TUESDAY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL HELP
DRAW UP WARM...MOIST AIR AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH TOWARD
SIOUX FALLS TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE SD IN THE WARM SECTOR
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH 25 TO 40 KT WINDS AT H85 AND
STRONG SHEAR THE REGION COULD SEE ITS FIRST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
WEATHER DAY OF THE SEASON.





&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KATY HAS CLEARED OFF FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. NOW...ALL
FOUR TERMINALS ARE VFR...AND ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD SUNRISE AT KATY...THE PREVAILING
FLYING WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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