Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 120547 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1147 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

06z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 914 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

Lowered overnight lows in the east as they had already fallen
quite a bit this evening under clear skies. Still expect low
clouds out west to develop/move east tonight yet bringing mostly
cloudy skies. Updated forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 549 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

A ridge of high pressure is building into the area with winds taking
a slow downward trend and we can also see some clearing across the
James valley into eastern North Dakota. Cold advection will begin
waining this evening as well. Cloud cover has spread into
western/central South Dakota, and that may persist. Guidance has
this cloud cover moving back east as a low to mid level deck tonight
into Tuesday as the high pressure continues to our south and we get
back into westerly flow. Warm advection follows for most of the day,
though cloud cover may inhibit warming for a good part of the area
during daylight hours, with clearing from west to east through the
course of the day. Mixed temperatures are in the 40s though 925mb
temperatures are warmest at 00Z, and again - cloud cover will
probably inhibit this enough that we will fall well below
potential.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

The upper level pattern will continue to feature northwest flow for
much of the extended period, with a series of shortwaves riding
through the flow and across the Northern Plains. One wave will move
through Tuesday night, another on Thursday, and yet another over the
weekend. At the surface, a clipper low will dive out of Canada and
over the eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota Tuesday night, possibly
bringing a few snow showers to the area, and setting up a decent
gradient for another windy day on Wednesday. Another low will move
through in association with the wave on Thursday, and looks as
though it could result in a more widespread area of light snow, but
little in the way of significant accumulation. After a brief period
of dry high pressure on Friday, models indicate another clipper low
dropping out Canada. At this time, the models are all over the place
with the location and where the best potential for precipitation may
occur, so will stick with the in-house model blend and just keep
small pops going for now.

Temperatures will remain mild through the period, with highs mainly
in the 30s and 40s, and overnight lows in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

MVFR/low VFR ceilings will push slowly east through the night
affecting all locations for a time. These will then move east with
skies becoming VFR at all locations through Tuesday morning.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Mohr


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