Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 221004
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
404 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 327 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Concerns for the short term continue to be areas of fog and
stratus that will produce small diurnal temperature spreads. The
freezing drizzle should be over and have removed any mention of
that.

As the stratus moves south eventually there will be an upslope
component across the southwest today. The HRRR model shows fog
developing across the southwest as the stratus approaches today.
Will leave the decision to issue any dense fog headlines for later
as its uncertain if the visibilities will fall that low.

Tonight there seems to be nothing to sweep the clouds out of the
region. This will keep the minimum temperatures a bit higher north
and east.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 327 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

The focus for the long term will be snow across southern North
Dakota Monday night and Tuesday. The GEFS plumes are slowly
converging to a 1 to 3 inch snow range for southern North Dakota.
Felt comfortable raising the pops to likely across the southern
tier of counties with lower pops central. Residual chances for
snow will continue through Wednesday but accumulations will be
minimal.

Cloudy skies will likely continue through Thursday as weak
cyclonic flow lasts that long. Finally by Friday into the weekend
stronger low to mid level flow will sweep the clouds and moisture
out of the area as the west coast ridge edges into the Northern
Plains and battles with the easter CONUS h500 trough for the
weekend. North Dakota will end up being in the baroclinic battle
ground as several shortwaves will likely move southeast through
the region after Saturday.

High temperatures this week will be mostly normal to above normal
with highs in the 20s to lower 30s Monday and Tuesday...teens and
20s Wednesday and Thursday...then back into the 20s to around 30
for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)

Issued at 1245 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

IFR-LIFR stratus impacting KISN-KMOT-KJMS will slowly move south
and encompass KDIK-KBIS between now and 10Z. Stratus looks to
remain over western and central North Dakota through Sunday night.
Southwest North Dakota, including KDIK, will have the best chance
to see the stratus lift during the day Sunday, otherwise MVFR-IFR
or lower conditions prevail through the 06Z period.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...NH


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