Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 261437

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
937 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Issued at 933 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

No changes required for today other than to blend to observed
trends through 14 UTC. Looking ahead to tonight, frost potential
may be widespread enough to possibly warrant a Frost Advisory,
especially central where winds will be light. The west is a bit
more uncertain with low level warm air advection through the
night. The question is whether the warm air will be realized at
the surface or remain above the radiation inversion.

UPDATE Issued at 633 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

Quiet weather continues this morning. Only change made was to
update with current conditions.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

The weekend low was pulling away from the area as high pressure
ridging moved in. A tight pressure gradient over the eastern part
of the forecast area will result in gusty winds up to 35 mph there
while the west holds below 25 mph. Full sunshine across the area.

For tonight, with light wind, a clear sky, and forecast dew points
in the lower to mid 30s will expect patchy frost. At this point
the lowest forecast low temperature is 36 so we`ll not expect
frost to be widespread enough to warrant an advisory.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

The sunny dry and mild daytime conditions continue through the week
and into the weekend with moderating overnight lows. Tuesday
night central and east dip low enough for another round of patchy
frost, with the west keeping some wind which in turn keeps
temperatures up. By Wednesday night the building heights and
mixing wind end the frost chances for this cycle. temperatures
will be generally in the lower to mid 70s, some 7 or so degrees above
end of September normals.

Based on the temperature forecast for the week it is not a stretch
to predict that all climate sites in the forecast area will close
the month of September 2016 out above normal on temps.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 933 AM CDT Mon Sep 26 2016

VFR conditions are forecast across western and central North
Dakota for the 12 UTC TAF cycle. Strong northwest winds with gusts
of 30-35kts are possible across the Turtle Mountains area and
James River Valley this afternoon, including KJMS.




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