Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 251948
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
248 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS SATURDAY: THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH...AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WITH DRY AIR
CONTINUING TO PUSH INTO THE STATE. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 40S
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH 50S AND 60S IN THE DEVILS LAKE/JAMES
RIVER BASINS. MEANWHILE A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE
BORDER OF CENTRAL ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.

TONIGHT THE DRY SURFACE AIR WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH
OR SO WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THIS EVENING...BUT
SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF
CANADA INTO NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN CANADA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST TO THE MANITOBA/MINNESOTA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD (OVER
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON) TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AS WELL.
EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT...ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WITH LAYERS OF LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS...AND THE COOLER POOL OF AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THE
FORMATION OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.

IN ADDITION...THE WIND FIELD WILL BE LINKED FROM THE SURFACE UP TO
H800 AND ALLOW NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH. LOOKS LIKE A BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY (CRITERIA IS
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30 MPH OR GUSTS TO 40 MPH) DAY FOR THE SOUTHWEST.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ISSUANCE FOR A WIND
ADVISORY THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

A COOL DAY IN THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

COOL AND DRY IS THE TREND FOR THE LONG TERM.

HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL SET UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...EJECTS
EASTWARD. THE 12 UTC GFS/ECMWF HAS THIS CYCLONE EJECTING EASTWARD
INTO MANITOBA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND POSSIBLE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTH AND EAST NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DEPART THE AREA AND
TRANSITION INTO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.

MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD IN AND REMAIN
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL USHER IN DRYER AND COOLER AIR. WITH WEAK FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION AND DRYER AIR ADVECTING
IN...MOISTURE...AND THEREFORE INSTABILITY...SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED
AT LEAST UNTIL MIDWEEK. THEREFORE...A MOSTLY DRY WEEK IS EXPECTED.
OCCASIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT
NO WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MVFR/VFR CIGS MOVING OUT OF THE KJMS AREA AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF
CIGS OUT AT 18Z. OTHERWISE SKC WILL DOMINATE THE TERMINALS THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z...WHEN NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KISN/KMOT MAY BE IMPACTED
BY SCATTERED CLOUDS OF VFR HEIGHT...BECOMING BROKEN AROUND 13Z-14Z.
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25KT WILL SUBSIDE BY 02Z
SATURDAY...THEN WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFT 12Z SATURDAY WITH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER 25 KNOTS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV








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