Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231800
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT:

SEEING A BIT OF A LULL IN SNOW ACTIVITY AS THE BAND THAT WAS NEAR
GARDEN CITY HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND ALSO
AS A VORTMAX/ENHANCED REGION OF FRONTOGENESIS SWINGS THROUGH. AMOUNTS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND UNDER AN INCH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 20S AND 30S.

TOMORROW:

A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SYNOPTIC TROUGH.
WINDS WILL BE WEAKER WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY
BY EVENING 5-10 MPH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S. POPS WILL REMAIN AT ZERO
PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

LEESIDE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND THEN
INTENSIFY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE ROCKIES GIVES WAY TO THE APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WEDNESDAY, THEN
RISING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S THURSDAY AS STRONGER SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP. THIS PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS DRY, WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH,
ALBEIT SLOWER MOVING, WILL PROGRESS INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES BY LATER FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN A WEAKENED STATE. MEANWHILE, COLD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
30S AT BEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH LOWS COOLING INTO THE TEENS
BY SATURDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN`T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FRIDAY
EVENING AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH; BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT REFLECT THIS
POSSIBILITY SINCE OTHER MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION
WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

A SURGE OF EVEN COLDER AIR IS LIKELY BY DECEMBER 29-31ST AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA, WITH
ASSOCIATED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WHILE THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE ARCTIC SURGE,
IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT HIGHS WILL FALL AT LEAST INTO THE 20S,
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. SOME SNOW CAN`T BE RULED OUT
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
ROCKIES BEFORE PROGRESSING EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. STRONG
WINDS NNW SUBSIDING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WELL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  23  41  26 / 100  40   0   0
GCK  35  18  42  23 / 100  20   0   0
EHA  36  19  45  23 /  20  10   0   0
LBL  37  19  44  24 /  50  10   0   0
HYS  34  21  40  25 /  80  50   0   0
P28  40  26  42  25 /  40  30   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN


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