Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 221935
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
135 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
...AVIATION SECTION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
NAM and GFS both were in good agreement with a 24 hour
temperature change of 850mb temperatures from 00z Sunday to 00z
Monday of +7 to +10C. Based on this combined with abundant
afternoon sunshine and downslope flow will favor the warmer MAV
with highs around 55 degrees. The exception will be just east of
the band of snow cover extending from northwest Kansas to
southeast Kansas. Given the prevailing wind being off the snow
pack will under cut the guidance numbers by around 10F.
Another cool night with lows in the 20s can be expected Tonight
given clear conditions along with a southeasterly winds at 10 mph
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
An upper low will deepen early next week as it moves from the
coast of British Columbia into the western United States. This
will improve the downslope flow across western Kansas as the winds
across the Central Rockies become more westerly. Given this
improving downslope flow will continue to favor a warming trend
early next week.
The westerly flow across the Central Rockies will then become
southwest by early Wednesday as the upper low moves south
southeast across Nevada. Embedded in this developing southwesterly
flow both the GFS and ECMWF indicated several upper level
disturbances will be moving from the based of this upper low into
the Central and Northern Plains. At the same time a cold front
will drop south into eastern Colorado and northwestern Kansas
early Wednesday. Along and south of this frontal boundary low
level moisture along with 850mb to 700mb warm air advection will
be improving across central and portions of western Kansas. Mid
level lapse rates early Wednesday night are forecast to range from
7 to 8 C/km. Based on these conditions Wednesday night along with
an upper level disturbance embedded in the southwesterly flow
crossing the west central high plains will keep at least a chance
for overnight rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially
east of highway 83.
The chance for convection will improve during the day Thursday
along and south of the cold front as the upper level low fills and
moves east northeast across the four corners region. At this time
based on timing of the cold front crossing western Kansas from the
ECMWF and GFS the area more favorable for these thunderstorms will
be in south central Kansas. North of this front there will also be
a chance for some rain showers during the afternoon, however as
the atmosphere cools the conditions will become favorable for the
rain to change over to snow Thursday night from northwest to
southeast. The chance for precipitation Thursday night will also
be tapering off from northwest to southeast as the upper level
system will be lifting north of western Kansas.
On Friday a cold dome of high pressure will begin to build into
western Kansas and then slowly cross the Central Plains over the
weekend period. Based on the 900mb to 850mb forecast temperatures
late Friday and Saturday the CRExtendedFcst_Init still looks on
track with highs in the 30s.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015
We have generally a persistence forecast for the next TAF period.
Dry weak westerly surface flow will dominate the next 18 hours or so
before winds turn light easterly early Monday morning. VFR
conditions are expected at all TAF sites.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 27 60 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 24 61 28 59 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 27 61 32 64 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 26 60 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 25 59 31 56 / 0 0 0 0
P28 27 62 35 61 / 0 0 0 0