Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 110520
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1220 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

A clear sky and light winds are allowing for strong radiational
cooling this morning, with most locations falling into the 30s as
of midnight. Surface dewpoints are also in the 30s. As such,
expect areas of frost over the next several hours through sunrise,
particularly in sheltered areas. High pressure surface ridge axis
will be near Wichita at sunrise, with southerly return flow of
about 10 mph commencing at about that time. This increase in south
winds at sunrise will work against frost coverage, and certainly
expect the increase in south winds to prevent any killing freezes
across SW KS this morning.

Full sunshine again today with zero clouds. Expect S/SE winds to
increase sharply after 10 am, with sustained winds of 15-25 common
this afternoon. Gusts in the 30-35 mph range are expected, with
00z NAM placing about a 10 mb surface pressure gradient across the
CWA. This return flow will be comprised mostly of recirculated air
from yesterday`s airmass, so today`s warmup will be modest (just
back to normal) with max temperatures within a few degrees of 70.

Tonight...clear and not as cool. Courtesy of a modest low level
jet, S/SE winds will remain more elevated in the 10-20 mph range.
With the mixing, temperatures will hold in the mid 40s north to
the lower 50s south Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Not much change in the overall thinking from previous forecast, as
we continue to anticipate a nice warming trend back into the 80s
Thursday and Friday. The next front Friday, though, looks a touch
faster than what it looked like yesterday, so the 80s will likely
only be realized closer to the Oklahoma border. Areas of far west
central KS may struggle to escape the 60s. This will likely be a dry
front Friday/Friday Night, with much of the initial thunderstorm
activity found farther northeast across far northeast KS/northwest
MO. That said, the GFS is definitely a more vigorous solution with
the QPF field, and as a result, SuperBlend POPs are higher (30-40
percent 06-12z Saturday). The front will likely stall out across
southern/central KS with increasing low level moisture pulling
northward toward it. The ECMWF, GFS, Canadian models all show a
similar signal of slightly positively tilted upper trough from the
western Dakotas into Colorado, which is generally not very favorable
for precipitation in western Kansas in mid-Fall.

Very strong cold frontogenesis usually results, and all three models
show this happening late in the day Saturday. Saturday looks like a
much better chance for more organized strong/severe thunderstorms,
potentially affecting our southeastern counties (south central
Kansas). SuperBlend POPs of 40-50 percent are in the grids for areas
east of Larned to Greensburg to Coldwater, although my gut tells me
the best activity will probably be east into WFO ICT forecast area
deeper into south central and eastern KS. Temperatures Sunday look
quite cool as intense low level cold advection will drive south
lower single digit Celsius temperatures at 850mb, supporting Sunday
highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s most locations. Look for the
Sunday highs to be a bit lower in future updates if these latest
global model trends continue regarding magnitude of cold air behind
this trough.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

VFR/SKC will continue through this TAF forecast cycle. Light and
variable winds at midnight will trend south at 5-8 kts around
sunrise, as return flow on the backside of eastern Kansas surface
ridge commences. After 15z, S/SE winds will increase sharply, with
NAM forecasting about 10 mb of surface pressure gradient across
SW KS. S/SE winds of 15-25 kts will be common at all airports this
afternoon, with gusts near 30 kts. Surface winds will subside some
around 00z Thu. After 03z Thu, included some low level wind shear
at all airports as a modest low level jet develops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  33  70  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  32  71  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  35  74  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  35  73  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  33  67  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
P28  36  68  49  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>064.

Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ065-066-
074>080-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner



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