Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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238
FXUS63 KDDC 191700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Placed areas of fog/freezing fog back in the grids for the western
zones for the next 1-2 hours. Visbility has fallen back to near
1/4 mile at Johnson City, Syracuse, Liberal, and Hugoton. The fog
is expected to begin to lift around 10 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 144 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

A weak closed upper low was slowly moving moving east over the
central High Plains early this morning. With a fairly dry
atmosphere over the central Plains, only some scattered mid and
high level cloudiness was being generated by this upper low. At
the surface, however, a low pressure trough was situated along the
Kansas/Colorado border. Light winds were present in the base of
the trough while farther east, southerly winds continue to push
increasing low level moisture into central and parts of western
Kansas. This has resulted in widespread stratus, along with some
locally dense fog on the western periphery of the stratus. The
HRRR and RAP13 along with the 00z NAM were all showing widespread
dense fog across the area. It appears that the stratus has been
helping keep the dense fog at bay across much of the area. Clear
skies and colder temperatures are helping radiate out the boundary
layer in the area from Syracuse and Lakin to Hugoton and dense fog
has been developing. Will issue a dense fog advisory for that area
for now and expand it east later if necessary.

For the rest of today, the fog should dissipate by late morning
but stratus will probably linger through much of the day in areas
north and east of Garden City and Dodge City. This will likely
keep highs in the 40s in these areas with low to mid 50s expected
farther west toward the Colorado border. Tonight will be mostly
clear to partly cloudy with some patchy fog possible over central
into parts of southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 144 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

The upper low over the area this morning lifts off to the north
and east on Friday while another shortwave trough moves out of the
central Rockies into Kansas. This system could generate a few
light rainshowers over northern and western sections of the
forecast area Friday afternoon.

Satellite imagery and model output show a strong upper level jet over
the eastern Pacific moving toward western North America. The GFS and
ECMWF show this jet propagating into the Desert Southwest and eventually
the southern Plains by Saturday. The models have been fairly consistent
in moving a shortwave trough out toward west Texas and then developing
an upper low over the Panhandles late Saturday. This system may bring
some scattered light rainshowers to the area generally south of Highway
50 Saturday evening.

Sunday and Monday should be mild and dry as a shortwave ridge
moves over the central CONUS. Another strong upper trough/closed
low moves out over the central CONUS on Tuesday. This system will
bring a better push of cold air into western Kansas on Tuesday.
The track of the upper low is not real favorable for precipitation
across southwest Kansas (i.e. tracking over northern Kansas and
southern Nebraska). The latest Superblend iteration continues to
bring some chance pops for light rain and snow so will keep that
trend going for now. Later periods in the extended look to be
turning colder again as the upper flow becomes more amplified with
a strong ridge along the west coast and northerly upper level flow
from Canada into the central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Poor flying conditions will prevail through this TAF forecast
cycle. Weak flow at the surface and aloft, and a moist boundary
layer, will allow stratus and areas of fog to persist. IFR cigs
common at midday, may show some minor improvements to MVFR for a
few hours this afternoon, most likely at GCK. IFR may prevail all
day at DDC/HYS. With no change in airmass, high confidence that
stratus and areas of BR/fog will reassert themselves after sunset.
Very high confidence of IFR, if not LIFR, stratus cigs impacting
all terminals overnight into Friday morning. Short term models are
less enthusiastic about fog development and reduced vis. With
MET/MAV MOS guidance both showing saturation and fog development,
included TEMPO groups for all terminals when fog is most likely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  33  52  30 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  46  29  49  26 /  10   0  20  10
EHA  58  29  53  28 /   0   0  10   0
LBL  56  31  55  27 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  47  35  46  31 /  10  10  30  20
P28  52  37  56  32 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Turner



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