Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 251414
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
914 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 912 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS AND
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE, A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR AND ALONG THE KANSAS AND COLORADO
BORDER WITH AN ATTENDANT TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AGAIN TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SITS ATOP THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
KS/CO BORDER. THESE WILL BE TWO MAIN AREAS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
FEW STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. HIGH
PWAT VALUES ALSO LEAD TO THE NOTION THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM
WILL BE GOOD RAIN PRODUCERS AND CAUSE FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE THEN
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS REACHING TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. WITH HIGH
DEWPOINTS CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS A FEW
PLACES MAY HAVE HEAT INDICES REACH OR SURPASS 105 DEGREES. AS FOR
NOW I HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY BUT MAY BE NEEDED
AS LATER DATA ROLLS IN. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS SUNDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FIRST ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE EVENING SPREADING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BY
MIDNIGHT. MONDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN QUIET WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM COLORADO IN THE EVENING TO EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SITS
AROUND THE KS/CO BORDER. MEANWHILE, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THEN
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AS IT HELPS PUSH DOWN A SURFACE FRONT, THEN A BETTER
CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BE
FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WITH NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.
OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK TO REACH
AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH MONDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY. HIGH
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, AND THIS IS WHERE
HEAT INDICES COULD REACH AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES. LOWS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE 70S WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER 90S ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90
DEGREES THURSDAY THEN LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY. LOWS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD LOOK TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT AT THE DDC AND GCK
TERMINALS WITH OVERCAST SKIES AOA250. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HYS TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING CREATING BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE HYS
TERMINAL. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER, OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE STORMS UP
NORTH MAY SHIFT THE WINDS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100  72 100  73 /  20  40  20  20
GCK  99  70  99  72 /  30  30  20  40
EHA 100  70  99  71 /  30  30  20  20
LBL 101  72 100  73 /  20  40  20  20
HYS  99  73  99  73 /  50  40  20  40
P28 102  76 101  76 /  20  40  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42


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