Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 090515
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1115 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday and Saturday night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Noticeably milder tonight compared to recent nights, as NW flow
through the depth of the atmosphere is keeping the air mixed and
preventing strong radiational cooling. Scattered mid/high clouds
passing through in the northerly flow aloft also helping to slow
temperatures from falling. A NW breeze of 10-15 mph will be
maintained through sunrise, with temperatures gradually falling
back to the mid and upper 20s by sunrise.

Saturday...Sunny and milder. Few if any clouds in a very dry
atmosphere. NW winds will increase again after 9 am, but at speeds
much reduced from those observed on Friday, averaging 15-25 mph.
Given the full sunshine, exceptionally dry ground, a net increase
in 850 mb temperatures of +5C from Friday, and some NWly downslope
component, favored the warmest MAV guidance for afternoon max
temperatures. Expecting a range of mid 50s east, to upper 50s at
Dodge City, to near 60 along the Colorado border.

Very quiet weather continues Saturday night, with a clear sky and
again mid to upper 20s Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 130 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

A consistent upper level pattern of a Hudson Bay Low and an upper
level ridge over the Rockies will continue through at least the
17th the way the GFS and Euro models are forecasting. The
continued trend of dry weather, up and down swings in
temperatures, with a few windy days mixed in this the highlight of
the forecast. Almost everyday will have an inherent fire danger
with Monday having a greater one.

Sunday will have the warmest temperatures of the time period at
this point. A very dry atmosphere combined with a west-northwest
breeze and sunny skies along with a milder 850mb airmass in the
area (10C according to the GFS, 12C according to the Euro) I went
ahead and raised high temperatures into the mid 60s but we could
realistically see upper 60s to low 70s in that environment.

Monday a shortwave trough will move through the northern plains
dragging another backdoor cold front into Kansas. Given the
unidirectional flow of the winds combined with a tightening
pressure gradient we could see strong afternoon winds across the
region. Monday will especially need to be monitored for fire
weather.

Wednesday both GFS and Euro hint at another shortwave coming in
from the Rockies. The GFS wants to bring the wave through Kansas
and the Euro wants to form a closed low over the four corners
region. In either case, it`ll be another dry cold frontal passage
followed by gusty afternoon winds. Towards the very end of the
forecast period we could begin to see a change in the upper level
wind pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

VFR through Saturday. Periods of scattered mid/high clouds tonight
passing by in the northerly flow aloft. NW winds through sunrise
averaging 10-12 kts. After 15z Sat, expecting SKC with an increase
in NW winds. Winds will be much reduced from those observed on
Friday, averaging 13-23 kts. Winds will once again subside quickly
at sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  23  57  29  66 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  20  57  26  65 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  26  59  28  67 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  24  57  26  65 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  26  54  29  65 /   0   0   0   0
P28  25  54  28  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Turner



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