Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 251942 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
242 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

...Updated for Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A COLD FRONT HAS SAGGED SOUTHWARD AND AUGMENTED BY EARLIER
CONVECTION WAS LOCATED BETWEEN GARDEN CITY AND HAYS. THIS BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY INTO THIS EVENING. THE BOUNDARY
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH CAPE FORECAST OF AROUND
2500 J/KG NEAR AND NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. COULD SEE SOME
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS OF 50 MPH OR HIGHER AND SOME SMALL HAIL. A FEW
STORMS COULD APPROACH NEAR SEVERE LIMITS INTO THE EVENING. WEAK MID
LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST STORMS
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL BE GENERALLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96 AND INTO THE I-70 CORRIDOR. ALSO SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THOSE AREAS IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREAS. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS GOING SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARDS MORNING WITH OUTFLOWS CAUSING THE FRONT
TO SAG MORE SOUTH INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR SAINT
JOHN TO COLDWATER AND EAST MAY NOT SEE ANY STORMS AND BE WARMER
OVERNIGHT AROUND 70.

FOR TUESDAY, WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON, GENERALLY WEST OF A LARNED
TO COLDWATER LINE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN FORM WHERE ANY BOUNDARIES
ARE LEFT OVER. WEAKER INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS SHOULD PRECLUDE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THEN
BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY 15 TO 20 MPH UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS
MAINLY EAST OF DODGE CITY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S
WEST OF DODGE CITY TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

An upper level low will trek from the Pacific northwest Monday to
the Central Plains by Friday before exiting the area this weekend.
Mid to upper levels of the atmosphere will saturate as this system
approaches bringing increasing cloudiness to western Kansas. Towards
the surface, a frontal boundary is expected to be positioned across
west central Kansas Tuesday before lifting northward to northern
Kansas and Nebraska Wednesday into Thursday. This frontal boundary
will be the main focal point where thunderstorms are expected to
develop. There could also be storms developing along the higher
terrain across eastern Colorado before moving into western Kansas
later on. A cold front is then progged to move through the area
Thursday with wrap around moisture in place Friday. Thunderstorm
chances envelop the CWA Wednesday night through Friday before
tapering off Friday night. A drier pattern then sits up for this
weekend with partly cloudy skies expected. As for temperatures,
highs will start out in the 90s Tuesday and Wednesday before cooling
off into the 80s Thursday through Saturday. Highs Sunday look to top
out in the lower 90s. Lows are forecasted to range from the mid 60s
across west central Kansas to lower 70s across south central Kansas
Tuesday through Thursday morning before cooling off into the 60s
Friday into this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

A cold frontal boundary is forecast to be stalled out between KGCK
and KHYS into this evening with southeasterly winds, south of the
boundary and northeasterly winds 10-20kt north of the boundary.
Some thunderstorms may develop up near this boundary towards
01-03Z time frame in the KHYS area into the night. The frontal
boundary likely to sag south towards morning into the KGCK and
KDDC areas with light and variable winds. VFR conditions are
anticipated expect in thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms in the
KHYS area may produce strong outflow winds to 50kt and small hail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  95  69  92 /  20  30  30  30
GCK  66  93  68  90 /  30  40  40  40
EHA  66  93  66  89 /  20  40  30  40
LBL  67  94  68  92 /  20  40  30  40
HYS  65  94  68  91 /  60  40  50  50
P28  72  99  73  96 /  20  10  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Kruse






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