Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 162051
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
351 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017


.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

A ridge of high pressure will generally be situated over
the central and southern plains for the next week with
some variation in positioning from day to day. Upper level
disturbances will ride over the north side of the ridge across
the central plains, mainly to the north of Kansas. The first of
these systems, having resulted in thunderstorm activity over the
past couple of days, will drift northward into northern Kansas by
Monday and then away from Kansas thereafter. A warm front will
move north across Kansas tonight and early Monday. There is some
indication that mid level moisture may arrive from the tropics
next weekend as another weakness develops in the upper level
ridge.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

There are small chances for thunderstorms through Monday as the
aforementioned upper level system drifts northward. These will not
be severe due to weak shear. The best chance of rain is across
far western Kansas close to the center of the disturbance. Lows
tonight will be mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s with highs
Monday in the mid 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Even hotter weather can be expected by Tuesday and on through the
week as upper level ridging prevails. There are only small chances
for thunderstorms by next weekend as mid level moisture arrives
from the tropics. High temperatures during the week may rise to
near or even slightly above 100 degrees with lows mainly in the
high 60s to mid 70s. The wet spring and summer experienced across
much of central and western Kansas may prevent temperatures from
getting too far above 100.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

A weak upper level storm system will probably stay far enough
west so that thunderstorms may stay west of the TAF sites. But
there is still a small chance that thunderstorms could venture
close to KDDC and KGCK between 20z through 00z. Given the weak
pressure gradient, winds will remain light from the east and
southeast through 12z. A warm front will move north by 12z, with
winds becoming southerly and increasing with daytime heating to
10-15 kts by 15-16z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  94  71  97 /  20  10  10   0
GCK  66  95  70  97 /  30   0   0   0
EHA  65  95  69  97 /  20   0  10   0
LBL  67  96  70  98 /  30  10  10   0
HYS  68  95  72  99 /  10  10  20  10
P28  72  95  72  98 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch



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