Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 072009

309 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014

...Updated Long Term section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)


The main focus for tonight is where convection will be located and how
severe. Right now, visible satellite imagery shows some developing cumulus
across the Plains of east-central Colorado. Expect further development
of cumulus into northwest Kansas through the afternoon. This activity
is along a frontal boundary. Convective allowing models break out thunderstorms
this evening with the best chances along the I-70 corridor. Storms may
extend all the way down to Highway 96, though, later tonight. As far
as severity, some of the models want to mix out current dewpoints, which,
so far, is not happening as much as the models indicate. Running the
thermodynamic and wind-related parameters through the Large Hail Parameter
(LHP) comes up with a value of 6. This basically suggests that hail
could potentially be up to the size of golf balls. Not really sure if
we will get a sustained weakly rotating updraft or not, so hail could
be smaller. There is not a threat of tornadoes. There could be 60+ mph
outflow winds, as an inverted-v thermodynamic profile is expected. Have
the highest pops for Trego and Ellis counties and then taper values
quickly southward as thunderstorms are not expected along and south
of a line from Coolidge to St. John. The most recent HRRR has storms
south of this line, however, this model tends to overdo cold pools and
resultant upscale growth. Overnight lows will be in the 60s/70s.


Much cooler temperatures are expected for tomorrow as the aforementioned
front sinks south of the region. Have lowered maximums as the majority
of the models are now cooler with "cold" air advection in the wake of
the front. Expecting maximums mostly in the mid 80s along with 10-20
mph N/NE winds. There could be some storms along and south of the Arkansas
river...have slight pops in after 21Z, but most of the precipitation
will be during the long term period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)

The cold front which will come down Tuesday will slow its southward
push and weaken Tuesday Night. The frontal zone, around 800mb will
be across the northern Panhandles northeastward along the KS-OK
border, which will be a focus for at least isolated or widely
scattered thunderstorms. It is still unclear whether a small
mesoscale convective system (MCS) will develop along the frontal
zone or not (and if so, whether it will be this far north into
southwest Kansas or not). For now, we will keep Chance POPs (25+)
across far southwest Kansas from roughly Elkhart to Meade with
Slight Chance (15-24) from roughly Scott City to Stafford. The front
will dissolve by Wednesday, however temperatures will still be mild
by early/mid July standards with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s. Any thunderstorms Wednesday through early/mid evening should be
confined to the higher terrain west of the southwest Kansas region.
Warm frontogenesis will increase in the 06-12Z time frame early
Thursday morning in the 850-700mb layer, and we will continue to
carry Chance POPs across central and south-central Kansas. The
updated forecast does reduce the POPs along/west of Highway 283,
though. The summer ridge will build in the mid-upper troposphere
with lower troposphere responding with quite a bit warmer
temperatures in the +27 to +29C range at 850mb. Even slightly warmer
temperatures Friday will support afternoon surface temperatures in
the 99 to 101F territory. We will carry some Slight Chance POPs in
the western/northwester zones for mainly diurnal lee trough/higher
terrain storms which may drift into western Kansas.

As we head into the upcoming weekend, we will start to see some
amplification occurring in the jet stream pattern cross
northwestern North America, with a pronounced ridge developing along
the Pacific Coast of British Columbia. This would lead to downstream
troughing throughout much of the rest of Canada into the Upper
Midwest region of the CONUS.  What this would mean for southwestern
Kansas is the eventual frontal passage, perhaps as early as late
Saturday (ECMWF) or Sunday (Canadian GEM). During the 14-17 July
time frame, there is a large degree of uncertainty in how the upper
tropospheric pattern will play out, but the ECMWF does suggest a
much cooler and wetter scenario during this 8-10 Day time frame. To
a lesser degree, the GFS does hint at this, but is also quite a bit
delayed in longwave troughing across the northern CONUS.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)

Convective potential is still the highest at KHYS this evening as
all the convective allowing models are in fair agreement that
there will be no convection farther south. Have included a tempo
group as a result. Other concern is wind shift with fropa late
tonight. NNE-NE winds 15-25 kt possible through overnight pd across
the terminals.


DDC  67  86  64  88 /  10  20  20  20
GCK  66  85  63  89 /  20  20  20  20
EHA  67  85  64  91 /  10  30  30  20
LBL  69  87  65  92 /  10  30  30  20
HYS  66  85  63  88 /  50  10  10  10
P28  72  89  67  89 /  10  20  20  20




LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Sugden is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.