Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 201922
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
222 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE, THERE IS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING.  AT THE
SURFACE, THERE IS A TROUGH RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA.  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST TODAY
AND BE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND WASH OUT,
AND ALLOW ONLY LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. I DID BUMP HIGH TEMPERATURES UP JUST SLIGHTLY DOWN
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, AND THINK THERE COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE
OF LOCATIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F DEGREES SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.
NORTH OF THE TROUGH IN THE SCOTT CITY TO HAYS AREAS, HIGHS SHOULD
ONLY REACH TO THE 73F-74F RANGE.

TONIGHT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
UPSLOPE WINDS AT LESS THAN 7 MPH.  THEREFORE, I THINK MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THIS NIGHT`S, RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S NORTH OF I-70 TO AROUND 50F DEGREES FROM JOHNSON TO DODGE
CITY TO PRATT, AND TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.
THERE WILL JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME FOG TO FORM, MAINLY FROM
SCOTT CITY TO DODGE CITY TO ASHLAND. FOR NOW, HAVE PLACED PATCHY
FOG WORDING IN FROM APPROXIMATELY 09Z TO 14Z TUESDAY MORNING. THE
NAM AND RAP MODELS HAVE LESS THAN 1 MILE VISIBILITY OVER OUR
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

OTHER THAN MAX TEMPS TODAY AND THE ADDITION OF FOG, NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRADIENT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BROUGHT
THE GRADIENT FURTHER EAST WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE WITH GLOBAL MODELS THAT THERE
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA. HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. AGAIN, TO THE SOUTHWEST, THINK CHANCE
OF MORE SIGNIFICANT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DWINDLING. SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO MARGINAL MUCAPE AND PARTICULARLY BULK SHEAR.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY HO-HUM AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FAVOR
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WE MAY SEE A MODERATE STRENGTH
FRONT IN ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW WITH ASSOCIATED COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OTHERWISE WARMTH AND A PRECIPITATION-FREE FORECAST WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SKIES CLEARED RAPIDLY AFTER THE MORNING FOG. WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSH. THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSOLVE LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT, HOWEVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME, IT DOES NOT APPEAR DENSE FOG WILL FORM AT DDC, GCK,
OR HYS WITH THE BEST THREAT FOR FOG ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS, HOWEVER, IN THE
12-18Z TIME FRAME AT DDC AND GCK (1200-2000 FOOT BROKEN-OVERCAST).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  75  56  76 /   0   0  10  50
GCK  45  75  56  76 /   0   0  10  40
EHA  51  75  54  73 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  50  75  55  76 /   0   0  10  30
HYS  44  71  57  76 /   0   0  10  60
P28  52  77  57  77 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...UMSCHEID



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