Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 251937
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
237 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A LARGE RIDGE OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLEAR SKIES AND WARM
TEMPERATURES.

850MB TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 22 CELSIUS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND
AFTERNOON MIXING SHOULD BRING HIGHS TO NEAR RECORDS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
DEEPEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE AT 10 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS UPSLOPE COMPONENT
WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK A BIT FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS. RECORDS RUN FROM
88 AT DODGE CITY, 91 AT GARDEN CITY, AND 90 AT MEDICINE LODGE.
WILL GO WITH AROUND 85 AT DODGE, TO 86 AT GARDEN, AND 87 AT
MEDICINE LODGE. SOME STRATUS/FOG MAY FORM NEAR MEDICINE LODGE TO
PRATT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60, BUT HRRR SHOWS
JUST EAST OF THERE.

TONIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH
THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE MILD AND RANGE FROM UPPER 40S AROUND GARDEN CITY TO THE MID
50S AT DODGE CITY, AND UPPER 50S AT MEDICINE LODGE. THE COOLER TEMPS
IN THE WEST DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL IN TURN PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY MONDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKING IT
FEEL COOLER THAN IT ACTUALLY IS. SKIES THEN BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ON
TUESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT ARE PROGGED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS
MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS TO MID 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SUPPRESSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN KANSAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT AT
THE SURFACE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. HIGHS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

YOU CAN EXPECT SEVERE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 25 HOURS AT KDDC AND
KGCK TAF SITES. HARDLY ANY CLOUDS, LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, AND NO VISIBILITY ISSUES. AT THE
KHYS SITE, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  87  53  71 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  49  86  49  68 /   0   0   0  20
EHA  53  85  52  68 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  53  87  53  70 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  52  82  52  67 /   0   0   0  10
P28  59  89  60  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...BURKE



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