Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200509
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1209 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

...Updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Radar this morning indicated one area of more widespread steadier
and heavier rain showers and thunderstorms were across northwest
Kansas. This appears to relate well to the left exit region of an
upper level jet which at 12z Friday extended from southwest Kansas
to eastern New Mexico. Another area of scattered thunderstorms
was associated with where the better low level forcing, better
instability, and 900mb to 850mb warm air advection that was
located earlier this morning across northwest Oklahoma and south
central Kansas.

For the remainder of the afternoon this surface boundary, low
level forcing, and instability will remain nearly in place across
south central Kansas as the upper level dynamics improve. Showers
and thunderstorms will briefly increase in coverage mid afternoon
across all of western Kansas as an upper jet and associated upper
level trough crosses into southwest Kansas. Main hazards early
today will be small hail and periods of heavy rainfall. Given the
saturated grounds from the previous rains this rainfall may cause
some minor water issues, especially in poor drainage areas,
ditches and low lying areas.

By late day the area more favorable for widespread showers and
thunderstorms is expected east/southeast of the Dodge City area
with the potential for a few of these storms being capable of
producing hail up to around the size of a quarter along with some
wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph. If these strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms do develop through the remainder of the afternoon
the better time for south central Kansas will be until 7 pm. Heavy
rainfall again will be a concern along which could result in
ponding of water on roadways.

These storms will then move east early this evening as the upper
jet lifts northeast and an upper level trough crosses western
Kansas. Behind this upper level trough skies will clear as a
surface ridge axis begins to build into western Kansas. Lows
tonight under some clearing skies early Saturday morning will be
mainly in the 40s. Some upper 30s possible west and north of
Garden City. Highs Saturday will be mainly in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

A northwesterly flow will develop early this weekend across the
Rockies and the central Plains as an upper low moves northeast
into the Western Great Lakes region, and an upper level ridge axis
builds into the Pacific Northwest. An upper level trough embedded
in this developing northwest flow will begin to approach the
Western High Plains late this weekend as a surface ridge axis
slowly crosses western Kansas.

A gradual warming trend over the weekend will bring afternoon
highs back to more seasonal readings by Sunday with mainly dry
conditions expected. There will be an increase in precipitation
chances late Sunday through Monday night as the upper level trough
crosses the Central Rockies and moves out into the Western
Central High Plains.

Precipitation chances will taper off on Tuesday another cool dome
of high pressure will be building across western Kansas early
next week which result in highs mainly in the 60s on Tuesday.

After this brief cool down on Tuesday a warming trend along with
dry conditions can then be expected through the remainder of the
work week as the upper level ridge builds east towards the
Rockies. Highs rebounding back into the 80s look likely by late
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Low clouds will decrease in coverage from south to north today
starting around sunrise around the LBL terminal with the HYS
terminal being cloudy until around sunset. Winds will generally be
from the northwest gusting to over 20 knots by late morning then
becoming light and variable by midnight tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  62  43  75 /  20  10   0  20
GCK  42  63  42  75 /  40   0   0  20
EHA  40  66  46  76 /  20   0   0  30
LBL  43  66  46  77 /  10   0   0  20
HYS  43  57  41  72 /  80  10   0  20
P28  49  65  45  76 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Hovorka_42



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