Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 241900
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
100 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DEGRADE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT THEN INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOMORROW. MEANWHILE, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN THROUGH WESTERN CANADA THIS
AFTERNOON, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT, THEN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
TOMORROW. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS REMAINS DRY.
MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME SATURATED TOMORROW
LEADING TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER FIRST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS
SPREADING SOUTH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TOMORROW SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION.
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN
THE AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL BE OBSERVED IN THIS AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS TONIGHT
LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO AROUND
20 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW
HAVE BEEN THE MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGE DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, CLOUD COVERAGE, AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
MELT THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF NOW HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS TO UPPER 40S ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE PRESSURES
CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO NEAR 50 AT HAYS IN THE ABSENCE
OF SNOW COVER, WITH UPPER 30S TO 40S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL FALL
INTO THE 20S FOR THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR PROGRESSES INTO WESTERN
KANSAS FROM CANADA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SNOW
EVENT(S) FROM LATER THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATED, WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER WESTERN KANSAS.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING
WILL BE IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WHERE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. BY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW AS THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BECOME MORE MOIST.
GIVEN THE POSITIVE TILT TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND SINCE IT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND SHEAR OUT BEFORE
REACHING WESTERN KANSAS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A MAJOR WINTER
STORM, BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH SNOW TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY SO THAT
THE DETAILS COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
PROBABLY STAY IN THE 20S THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS MAINLY IN
THE TEENS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES ONCE AGAIN BY MID NEXT WEEK, WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC
AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING TO BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS
EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  16  44  16  24 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  15  42  15  23 /   0  10  20  10
EHA  15  42  17  23 /   0  10  30  30
LBL  15  44  18  24 /   0  10  20  20
HYS  21  48  14  22 /   0  20  20  10
P28  18  46  18  24 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42


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