Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231814

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1214 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

A strong upper level disturbance will approach the high plains
region this afternoon and then progress into the upper Midwest
by Friday night. Strong southwest winds will develop this
afternoon behind the surface dryline and south of the warm
front. Locations along interstate 70 will stay cooler north of
the warm front. The warmest readings in the mid to upper 70s will
be along the leading edge of the dryline at 4 pm, and especially
on the lower terrain at Ashland and Coldwater where readings could
approach 80 degrees. Temperatures will not warm as much today
on the higher terrain of far western Kansas in this downslope
regime. There is a small chance of rain showers along Interstate
70 late this afternoon and tonight, possibly changing to light
snow before ending. The associated cold front will pass across
southwestern Kansas with evening with an abrupt wind shift to the
north at 20 kts. Winds may be even stronger than this for a few
hours during the evening as models are typically too weak with
winds behind cold fronts with progressive upper level systems like
this one. Temperatures ought to drop into the 20s to lower 30s by
Friday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Cooler weather can be expected behind the surface cold
Friday with highs in the 30s and 40s. A warming trend can be
expected after Wednesday as the upper level flow becomes more
zonal and surface high pressure moves off to the east. Highs
should warm into the 50s by Sunday and possibly as warm as the
lower 60s as early as Monday from Dodge City south and west. A
fast moving upper level system may result in a few rain showers
Sunday night. Another upper level system will traverse the plains
by Tuesday and Wednesday along with another cold front. Highs
should fall back into the upper 40s to mid 50s by Wednesday before
recovering back into the upper 50s by Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Westerly winds will advance eastward to GCK and DDC this
afternoon before a strong cold front pushes south though the
area between 00 and 03 UTC. Ceilings will be mainly seen at
the HYS terminal, but still looking like VFR category, with rain
showers followed by a light snow dusting after midnight.


Issued at 130 PM CST Wed Feb 22 2017

A red flag warning is in effect for much of SW Kansas this
afternoon where conditions will be critical to extremely
critical. Strong southwest winds behind a dryline along with very
low relative humidity values will be present for several hours,
particularly south of a line from Syracuse to Jetmore to
Coldwater. Steep lapse rates will develop by afternoon, allowing
mid level winds to mix to the surface, resulting in frequent wind
gusts to 40 mph. There is some question as to how far north the
warm front surges north today and how far east the dryline
progresses. It`s possible that Lane county and maybe even Scott
county may not reach red flag criteria if these surface features
stay farther south and west. As we head eastward into central
Kansas, there will be a point where the dry and warm air will not
result in criteria being met for very long.


DDC  74  27  41  18 /  20  10   0   0
GCK  69  26  38  17 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  68  27  42  20 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  74  29  44  19 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  58  29  34  19 /  40  40  20   0
P28  77  34  46  22 /  10  10   0   0


Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for



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