Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 122055
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
255 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

...Updated short and long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

A surface ridge of high pressure was moving southeast out of the
northern and central High Plains this afternoon with surface winds
gradually veering with time to the northeast and east. Stratus has
scattered out or cleared through much of the western half of the
forecast area this afternoon. An area of stratocumulus had developed
over the eastern parts of the area and is slow to erode. Clouds
will be on the increase again tonight as a mass of cirrus originating
from the tropics moves over the central Plains overnight. Low
level winds will become southerly overnight as surface pressures
lower in the lee of the Rockies in the wake of the surface ridge.
This will allow low level moisture to begin spreading back to the
north with stratus redeveloping across the area late tonight. Went
with the warmer MAV guidance for overnight lows tonight but this
may still be too cool depending on cloud cover.

Model soundings indicate that the low level moisture will be
deepest over far south central Kansas by Monday morning. With
warm air advection occurring, there could be some patchy drizzle
in the Coldwater-Medicine Lodge-Pratt areas Monday morning. This
looks to diminish by afternoon as the moist layer becomes more
shallow. Elsewhere, stratus will be slowly eroding from the west
as the low level flow takes on a downslope component. There is a
lot of uncertainty as to how far east the stratus will erode but
optimistically, it could make it to near Highway 283 by later
afternoon. This will also result in a decent temperature gradient
across southwest Kansas with highs ranging from the mid 50s along
the Highway 183-281 corridor to near 70 along the Colorado border.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Looks like more of the same for the extended period as a zonal
progressive flow pattern is forecast to persist through the next
seven days. At the beginning of the period, low level moisture
will continue to spread north into central and portions of western
Kansas Monday night and Tuesday as a weak shortwave trough
approaches the northern Plains. Some short term model solutions
show widespread dense fog developing across a good part of the
forecast area Monday night. SREF probabilities for <1 mi visibility
are not all that high, generally less than 40 percent, so am not
getting too excited about that just yet. Low level warm advection
on Tuesday should yield some of the warmest temperatures this
week with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. The weak shortwave
moves across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest Tuesday
night. This will push a cold front through western and central
Kansas Tuesday evening. The medium range models continue to keep
any precipitation with this front to the north and east of the
forecast area.

A stronger shortwave trough is progged by the models to blast east
across the central Plains around Friday or Friday night. The GFS
continues to be about 12 hours faster with the passage of this
system over western Kansas. The models continue to keep any
precipitation with this system out of the forecast area but think
that areas along the I-70 corridor could see at least a small
chance given the farther south track of this wave. Friday could be
a lot windier and cooler than the latest forecast indicates if the
GFS turns out to be right. Given the uncertainty, did not want to
stray from FB guidance too much. Quieter weather and more seasonal
temperatures are expected for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Stratus is in the process of breaking up and thinning out across
central and southwest Kansas through the mid/late morning hours.
Expect the terminals to scatter out at times this afternoon
although there is still sufficient low level moisture for
stratocumulus redevelopment with daytime heating. Winds will
gradually veer with time from north to southeast but should
generally remain less than 10 knots. Increasing southerly flow
tonight will bring low level moisture surging back to the north
from the southern Plains with MVFR/IFR cigs redeveloping.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  40  59  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  39  62  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  39  69  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  36  65  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  36  56  41  63 /   0   0   0  10
P28  39  55  48  66 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard



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