Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 181903
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
103 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, WITH A WEAKENING FLOW
ALOFT AND THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH, LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH, DECREASING
CLOUDS, HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
SNOWPACK MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL AIRMASS EXPECTED. A VERY BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MORE SOUTHERLY.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH
H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 0C FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY,
LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 40S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ON
FRIDAY, A WAVE WILL BE MOVING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE BULK
OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY PRECIPITATION FREE. THERE
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW MUCH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND POINTS EAST.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND COLDWATER AND
MEDICINE LODGE MAINLY AROUND SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
IMPROVING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND LOW
LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. MILD AIR AT 850 MILLIBARS WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
BE ABOVE FREEZING AND MAY BE WARMER THAN THE GOING EXTENDED
INITIALIZATION IS SHOWING, DEPENDING ON WINDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER JET PROPAGATES SOUTH DURING
THE DAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID
AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE FEW DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS SHOULD BE DRY AND SEASONAL WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. LATER IN THE WEEK AROUND CHRISTMAS INTO THE
WEEKEND, THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL DIG
INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE MODELS ARE VARYING IN
DETAILS REGARDING THIS SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL STRATUS SLOWLY ERODES WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BRIEF PERIODS OF VFR MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KHYS AND
KGCK THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR VSBYS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS AREAS OF FOG SLOWLY DISSIPATE/LIFT. LOW STRATUS AND
FOG MAY REDEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND AN UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH PULLS FURTHER
AWAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  45  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  23  47  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  23  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  25  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  23  42  23  47 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  42  29  49 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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