Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171754

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1154 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

...Updated Aviation and Fire Weather Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1253 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

A weak frontal boundary attendant to a fast moving upper level
shortwave transitioning across the Northern Plains, will quickly
push through western Kansas this morning, reinforcing the drier
air mass across the region. Along with a weakening westerly flow
aloft, this will keep precip chances at bay across western Kansas
through Saturday night. Despite the brief northerly flow, little
change to the air mass is likely. So, expect highs to climb well
up into the 50s(F) to near 60F this afternoon. Should see lows
only down into the 30s(F) tonight. Of slightly more concern will
be the gusty north winds developing this afternoon in conjunction
with lowering relative humidity levels. At the very least, look
for a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions setting up
for a few hours early to mid afternoon before winds quickly
subside toward this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 127 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Medium range models continue to show troughing deepening across the
Intermountain West late Sunday into the early part of next week
setting up an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft across the
Western High Plains. Meanwhile, an attendant frontal boundary is
projected to push into western Kansas early Monday. Despite a
prevailing southerly flow ahead of the approaching boundary,
moisture will remain relatively limited across western Kansas
lowering the chance for any appreciable precip across the region
through the middle part of the week.

Well above normal temperatures are likely Sunday due to a quickly
developing and strengthening lee side trough resulting in a robust
south-southwest flow across western Kansas. This will draw much
warmer air into the area with H85 temperatures climbing well into
the teens(C) by Sunday afternoon. With much drier air present,
should see highs pushing well up into the 70s(F). We may see a tight
temperature gradient across the region Monday as a cold front is
forecast to push southward into western Kansas, then stalling out
before reaching the Oklahoma border. Look for highs reaching the
70s(F) once again in south central Kansas and potentially near and
along the Oklahoma border with much colder temperatures further
north toward the I-70 corridor. Arctic high pressure moving into
the Northern Plains will dislodge the boundary Tuesday, pushing it
southward into Oklahoma and allowing much colder air to filter
down across the high plains and dropping highs well below normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

VFR conditions will continue through Sunday. Skies will remain
mostly clear with only a few thin cirrus clouds tonight and
Sunday. Low level north winds 20-30 kts with gusts to near 40 kts
will diminish to 10-15 kts by 21Z and become light and variable
around sunset. Low level south winds will increase during the
night to 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots after midnight. A
strong low level jet will produce low level wind shear from 08z
until the low level jet mixes out 15Z-16Z. Low level winds will
increase to 20-30 kts sustained with gusts to near 40 kts by 16Z.

A vigorous upper level trough was moving into southwest Iowa at
17Z, and a surface cold front extended from northwest Missouri to
southwest Oklahoma. Cold air advection behind the front was
supporting downward mixing of strong winds above the surface,
resulting in strong and gusty low level winds. Surface high
pressure will build in western Kansas this afternoon, and winds
will diminish quickly by mid afternoon.

An upper level trough near the British Columbia coast will move
rapidly to eastern Montana by Sunday morning, and pressures will
fall rapidly in the lee of the northern Rockies. Another deep
upper level trough will dig into the Pacific Northwest Sunday, and
a surface cyclone will develop in northeast Colorado Sunday
afternoon. A strong pressure gradient across Kansas will produce
gusty south winds late tonight and Sunday.


Issued at 238 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

North winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts to near 40 mph will diminish
quickly to 10 to 15 knots by mid afternoon. Near critical fire
weather will occur through 21Z with relative humidities between 15
and 20 percent. Red flag criteria may be met for an hour or two
but not long enough to merit a headline. Very active fire behavior
can be expected given the extremely dry fuels.

Low level winds will become south tonight as pressures fall in
the lee of the Rockies and will increase to 25 to 35 mph with
gusts in excess of 40 mph by late Sunday morning. Critical fire
weather is likely with relative humidities falling to around 15
percent west of a line from Liberal to Hays.


DDC  58  36  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  59  34  76  37 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  62  35  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  60  35  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  58  33  73  33 /   0   0   0   0
P28  62  34  70  53 /   0   0   0  10


Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088.



LONG TERM...JJohnson
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