Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 061840
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1240 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1240 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Clouds expected to increase rapidly this evening as lift increases
ahead of approaching shortwave. Boundary layer is exceptionally
dry (dewpoints currently falling to near zero) and it will take
lots of time for the atmosphere to moisten from the top down. All
zones dry through at least midnight, but did mention a chance of
snow showers for the northern zones toward morning. Ceilings will
gradually lower overnight, and gusty SE winds overnight will back
to more easterly near sunrise as shortwave approaches. Despite the
clouds and winds, cold/dry air advection will continue, and
lowered Wednesday morning lows closer to the 12z MAV guidance
(upper teens and lower 20s).

Strong shortwave over SW Oregon at midday will race eastward
through the short term, reaching Kansas on Wednesday,and exiting
eastern Kansas Wednesday evening. While jet dynamics with this
system are strong, it remains much too progressive, and as such
too moisture starved to bring much precipitation to SW KS. In
addition, models have settled on a shortwave track across the
northern CWA Wednesday, which will limit any snow accumulations of
consequence to the northern zones. Even here, reduced the
inherited snow amounts even more, with around one inch north of a
Scott City-Ness City-La Crosse line. The areas with the best shot
of picking up an inch of fluffy snow are Trego/Ellis counties, and
the northern portions of those counties at that. Per coordination
with WFO Goodland, will not be issuing a winter weather advisory
for any zones. Some limited blowing snow is possible along the
I-70 corridor for several hours Wednesday morning, as the heavier
snow showers pass by. All other zones, snow amounts will be
minuscule to none, mostly flurries.

Primary impact on Wednesday will be the arrival of cold arctic
air. All models show cold air advection continuing all day, with
the atmosphere becoming colder as the day progresses. This effect
will be magnified by strong gusty NE/N winds and invading stratus
clouds. Temperatures will struggle to move much of anywhere, stuck
in the 20s all day for most zones; near 20 NW to near freezing far
SE. A slow downward non-diurnal temperature curve is possible. Wind
chill factors will average 10-15 degrees during daylight hours
Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 238 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

The remainder of the aforementioned system will move through the
area Wednesday bringing mostly cloud skies and scattered snow
showers to western Kansas. The area that looks to receive the
majority of snow will be across northern Kansas and west central
Kansas with lesser amounts as you head farther south. In fact,
areas along the KS/OK border may not receive any snow at all. Snow
chances diminish from west to east Wednesday afternoon with dry
conditions and decreasing cloudiness Wednesday night. This system
will also help push through a cold front Wednesday with northerly
winds and a much colder air mass behind it. Temperatures Wednesday
look to range from the lower 20s across northwest Kansas to lower
30s across south central Kansas. Lows Wednesday night are expected
to fall into the single digits with the exception of south central
Kansas where teens will be found. The cold air mass continues to
filter into the area Thursday with highs only reaching into the
20s with lows Thursday night in the single digits and lower teens.
Wind chills down to the negative single digits are also expected
Wednesday and Thursday mornings with dry conditions. The next
system looks to move through the area this weekend, however, it
looks to trek to the north of the CWA with only an increase in
cloudiness expected. As for temperatures, highs Friday are
anticipated to rise into the 30s with 40s this weekend. Lows will
rebound into the 20s with the exception of west central Kansas
where upper teens could be found.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

NW winds will diminish and become light and variable this
afternoon, as surface high translates SE across SW KS. SE surface
winds will commence after sunset as this high moves to eastern
Kansas. VFR expected to continue through at least 06z Wed at all
airports, although cigs will be lowering to near 5-7k ft AGL.
After 06z Wed, SE winds increase and become gusty, 10-20 kts,
gusting 25 kts, as strong shortwave approaches from Colorado.
After 12z Wed, cigs will continue to lower, with increasing E/NE
winds, gusting 25-28 kts. At GCK/DDC, included MVFR stratus cigs
after 16z Wed, along with VCSH for passing -SHSN. Snow is most
likely at HYS Wednesday morning, where one inch of accumulation is
possible. Limited vis in -SN/BLSN possible at HYS 12-18z Wed.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  40  18  27   8 /   0  20  30   0
GCK  38  17  25   7 /   0  30  40   0
EHA  37  18  28   8 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  39  20  30   9 /   0  10  20   0
HYS  37  20  25   8 /   0  40  60   0
P28  43  23  34  14 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner


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