Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 172311
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
611 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

High pressure over the greater region will eventually shift off to
the east through the overnight. SE/S winds are eventually expected
on the backside of the departing high. These winds will keep
minimums up a bit with upper 30s to lower 40s. There will be some
high level clouds, but no precipitation within the short term
domain. For tomorrow, pleasant temperatures are expected with
widespread 70s. Critical fire weather conditions are not expected
as relative humidities will be on the marginal side.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

On Sunday, there will be stronger downslope conditions and 850-hPa temperatures
will warm well into the 20s. Critical fire weather conditions could
be possible across far western Kansas. One caveat to this is winds.
The strongest winds and lowest relative humidities do not appear to
be collocated at this time. This is something to watch. Regardless,
Sunday will be hot with highs around 90. It probably won`t take much
for a fire to start. It is too early for a fire weather watch given
the uncertainty with the wind magnitude.

For Monday, cooler conditions are expected behind a fropa with upslope
conditions. Even cooler temps are expected Tuesday/Wednesday as cold
air advection and upslope flow continues.

Attention then turns Thursday. The EC and GFS are quite different in
regards to the warm sector. The GFS has a larger area in the moist/warm
sector with convection possible. The EC downslopes/dryslots much of
the region. These details will be hammered out as time moves forward.
Something to watch as there could be very high fire danger west of
the dryline and/or thunderstorms (possibly strong/severe) east of the
dryline. Uncertainty is just too high right now to go into all the
smaller details.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Easterly winds less than 10 knots will become southeast between
09z and 15z Saturday, as surface boundary remains nearly
stationary across eastern Colorado and an area of high pressure at
the surface moves into the Mississippi Valley. As surface
pressures continue to fall along this bounary on Saturday the
southeasterly winds will increase into the 15 to 20 knot range
between 15z and 18z Saturday at Garden City and Dodge City. Gusty
southeast winds at around 15 knots will develop in the Hays area
between 18z and 21z Saturday. RAP and NAM model soundings
indicating VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  40  73  52  91 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  39  76  49  91 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  40  78  51  90 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  40  76  51  92 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  37  72  48  88 /   0   0   0   0
P28  42  73  52  91 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert



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