Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 310500
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE SURFACE FRONT THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED, WITH WEAK, MOIST UPSLOPE
FLOW LINGERING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. ANY SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE 101ST MERIDIAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL LIKELY BE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF KANSAS ALONG THE
WEAKENING FRONT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE CONTINUED MOIST SUBTROPICAL
PLUME FROM THE TROPICS INTO WESTERN KANSAS, AS WELL AS RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW, THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, AND THESE
COULD VENTURE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
FRIDAY EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S, WITH HIGHS
MAINLY 80S ON FRIDAY (PERHAPS 90 ALONG INTERSTATE 70).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT ALL THAT HIGH FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY
OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS ARE NOT LIKELY
FOR MOST OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS AS TERRAIN FEATURES
COULD HELP GENERATE CONVECTION OUT ON THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS WARMING TO NEAR
90 BY SUNDAY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS, WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH LEE TROUGHING
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
WESTERLIES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
ALONG WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A FEW ISSUES WITH THIS TAF. FIRST, WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW VIS/BR FOR KGCK/KDDC
THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH, BUT SOME OF THE MODELS
SHOW LOWER VIS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THEREAFTER (ABOUT 15Z ONWARD).
NEXT IS CONVECTION...FOR THE MOST PART, IT LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS DURING THE PD AND WILL KEEP THE TAF AS
SUCH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  88  67  85 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  66  88  65  86 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  65  86  63  86 /  20  20  20  10
LBL  67  87  66  85 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  66  91  67  89 /  10  10  10  10
P28  69  88  69  84 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN


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