Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 090632
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1232 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...Updated Short Term and Aviation Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

The western ridge/eastern trough pattern will continue through today
and tonight. A deep tropospheric baroclinic zone will remain
quasistationary across the central CONUS. This will result in a
temperature gradient at the surface as well. Lower tropospheric flow
will be from the north-northwest, including at the surface, as far
west as roughly the US-283 corridor, which will prevent any
downslope influence. Temperatures today across central and portions
of west central KS will struggle to escape the 30s, particularly
around Hays. Conversely, extreme southwest Kansas (i.e. Elkhart)
will see temperatures warm very nicely through the 50s, topping out
around 61 or 62 for a high today with lower tropospheric momentum
attaining much more downslope component from Colorado. A band of 6-
10 kft cloud (along the aforementioned deep mid level baroclinic
zone) will likely move into the Hays area later today, which could
also affect any warm-up. This cloud band will shift east this
evening/tonight leaving clear sky in its wake. Low level flow will
become even more downslope component tonight, and even a 7 to 10 mph
west wind would probably be enough to prevent a massive drop in
temperatures tonight. Look for lows around or slightly above the
seasonal average tonight (mid 20s for most).

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

An upper level ridge will be in place across the Western United
States through Saturday with an upper level long wave trough above
the Eastern United States. This will place western Kansas under a
northwest flow aloft. With the exception of Tuesday night, when
mid level clouds are possible, skies look to be mostly clear with
occasional high level cloudiness. Towards the surface, a westerly
component of the wind is expected across western Kansas Wednesday
into Wednesday night as high pressure slides eastward across the
Southern Plains. Wind then shift to more of a northerly direction
Thursday into Friday as a weak upper level shortwave moves down
through the northwest flow an help push a cold front through the
area at the surface. High pressure filters into the region
throughout the remainder of the forecast period with cooler
temperatures in place. As for temperatures, the warmest day looks
to be Wednesday with highs ranging from the upper 40s across north
central Kansas to around 70 degrees across far southwestern
Kansas. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday night look to dip into the mid
to upper 20s with lows 30s along the KS/OK border. Highs Thursday
and Friday are expected to range from the upper 40s across north
central Kansas to mid 60s across far southwestern Kansas. Lows
Thursday night are anticipated to fall to around 30 degrees.
Models suggest much cooler temperatures this weekend with the
possibility of high Saturday ranging from the upper 30s across
central Kansas to mid 50s across far southwestern Kansas. Highs
Sunday only to look to be a few degrees warmer.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

As we remain in a dry northwest flow regime, weather conditions will
continue to be favorable for general aviation. VFR flight category
will continue through Tuesday Night, although some clouds will
promote a high ceiling up at HYS later today and this evening, but
any ceiling should be well above MVFR. Prevailing wind direction
will remain unchanged from the northwest with speeds 10 to 15 knots
in the early morning and evenings with daytime wind speeds 15 to 20
knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  27  64  29 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  53  26  66  28 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  58  31  71  33 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  58  28  69  31 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  43  24  50  26 /   0   0   0   0
P28  51  26  62  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Umscheid


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