Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDDC 221702 CCA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1102 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

AN UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL STAY SOUTH OF KANSAS AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS TEXAS INTO FRIDAY.
CLEARING SKIES AND DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS KANSAS TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY
AROUND 5 TO 8 MPH BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE TEENS WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS. PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FROM 20 TO 24 DEGREES.

FOR FRIDAY, WEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH BECOME NORTHWESTERLY LATE AT 10
TO 15 MPH AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS. HIGHS
WILL BE AROUND 50 WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS. CLEAR SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TOWARDS
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER IS IN THE OFFING FOR WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS ANCHORED OVER HUDSON`S BAY WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES, A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND BECOMES SOMEWHAT
SUPPRESSED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OVER THE RIDGE.

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN SLOPES ON FRIDAY.
LOW LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS TROUGH AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S ON
SUNDAY. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH A FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE EAST OF WESTERN KANSAS AND HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD
WARM UP AGAIN AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW
INCREASES AGAIN.

WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAX TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THESE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PATTERNS
COULD CAN RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING UP SEVERAL DEGREES OVER
GUIDANCE VALUES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHS REACHING THE
LOW 70S AGAIN.

WHILE MODEL FORECAST DETAILS COULD CHANGE BEFORE THEN, THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT RIDES OVER THE UPPER RIDGE AROUND
MIDWEEK APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR NORTH TO PROVIDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. IT SHOULD PUSH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AROUND MIDWEEK AND BRING SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION
TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH. THE RESULT OF THIS
WILL BE CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  19  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  40  16  48  26 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  35  13  46  25 /  20   0   0   0
LBL  39  15  47  26 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  42  17  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
P28  44  22  50  29 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...GERARD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.