Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 201939
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
239 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Hot and dry conditions once again can be expected today as an
upper high slowly slides east across the Central Plains over the
next 24 hours. Based on the high temperatures on Wednesday and the
24 hour 850mb temperature change from 00z Thursday to 00z Friday
it appears that the previous forecast still looks on track with
highs climbing into the 100 to 104 degree range this afternoon.
Afternoon dew points are expected to be a couple of degrees lower
than Wednesday based on the latest NAM, GFS, ARW, and NMM so Heat
index readings late today will be similar to yesterday and will
range mainly between 100 to around 104. The warmer heat index
readings will be east of Highway 283.

Precipitation chances for western Kansas remains low today and
tonight given that the track of the upper level disturbances that
will be rotating around the Central Plains upper high today and
tonight will track west and north of western Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

For Friday through the weekend period...upper level disturbances
will continue to rotate around the upper high as it weaken and
slowly shifts east into the mid to lower Mississippi Valley.
Friday still appears hot and dry but one upper level disturbance
Friday night crossing the Plains will bring a surface boundary
into southwest Kansas as a surface cold front drops south across
Nebraska into portions of northern Kansas. This cold front will
continue to track south across southwest Kansas Saturday and given
the location of this boundary over the weekend combined with
moisture and late day instability across the Western High Plains
there will be a chance for thunderstorms across western and north
central Kansas Saturday night and Sunday.

Early next week an upper level ridge will move east out of the
Rockies and into the Western High Plains as a surface cold front
drops south into Oklahoma. Another upper disturbance embedded in
the developing westerly flow is currently expected to cross the
Western High Plains late Monday. This will result in another
chance for convection as this upper wave cross western Kansas
early next week, especially Monday night into early Tuesday.

Based on preciptable water values forecast by the GFS over the
weekend the potential exists for periods of heavy rain. Gusty
winds and possibly some small hail will also be possible.

With the improving chances for convection late this weekend into
early next week the temperatures are expected to be not as warm as
the past several days due to the possible precipitation/cloud
cover along the the the cooler air returning behind a cold frontal
passage.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Potential exists for low level wind shear overnight. Other than
that, given the broad upper ridging, subsidence and mid level dry
air, ceilings will not be an issue during this TAF period.
Surface gusts will ease after dark once boundary layer mixing
ceases before redeveloping again after 15 UTC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75 102  73 103 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  72 101  70 100 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  71  98  69  98 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  72 101  71 102 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  75 104  73 100 /   0   0   0  20
P28  76 103  76 105 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ031-046-065-066-081-
090.

Heat Advisory from 1 AM to 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ064-077>080-
087>089.

Heat Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ030.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Russell



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