Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 162148

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
348 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

...Updated Short and Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

The weather concern through the short term (and this weekend in
general) is elevated fire weather conditions Saturday &
especially on Sunday afternoon.

Tonight: Surface high pressure moved east today, shifting wind
south. Wind speed began to increase due to a surface low
developing in eastern Colorado. Wind has already become southerly
at 10-25 mph toward the Colorado border, and will spread across
southwestern Kansas through the evening through 1-2 am. The low
will kick out of eastern Colorado and move east, shifting wind
northerly early Saturday morning. As this boundary moves east
overnight, it will have enough upper level lift and better
boundary layer moisture south and east of us for rain. I went
ahead and included 20 pops for Barber County in the event that
county is in the path of the deeper moisture and lift.
Temperatures will drop into the 20s overnight, with 30s possible
near the Oklahoma border.

Saturday: Wind will become northerly at 10-20 mph sustained, with
gusts to 25 mph through the day as weak high pressure moves east.
Lee troughing develops by afternoon and deepens. This will cause
a wind shift, once again, to the south by the end of the day.
Temperatures will reach into the upper 50s/lower 60s. With the
high wind, low relative humidity and dry ground, elevated fire
weather will be a concern Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

The pressure gradient increases Saturday night with the deepening
low, which will cause wind to become 10-20 mph sustained, gusting
to 25 overnight from the south. Wind speed will increase with
mixing after sunrise 15-25 sustained, with gusts to 35 from the
southwest. Temperatures Sunday will reach into the 70 throughout
western Kansas. With the wind being higher and relative humidities
being lower on Sunday, elevated fire weather concerns continue.
After collaboration with other offices, it was decided to hold off
on issuing a fire weather watch for now.

On Monday afternoon, a strong cold front pushes through Kansas
ahead of an upper level trough. High temperatures on Monday will
be determined by the timing of the cold front. For now, we have
70s toward the Oklahoma border and 40s toward the north. However,
this will likely shift.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be cooler as cool Arctic air sets in.
Highs right now look to be in the 30s/upper 40s. Thursday and
Friday, warm air advection and lee troughing prevail with highs
in the 50s both days. Unfortunately, dry weather looks to continue
for the weekend...


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

Biggest aviation concerns are two wind shifts over the next 24
hours. Surface high pressure moving east today will shift wind at
terminals to the south through 20Z. Wind will be less than 10
knots through 0Z when a deepening low in eastern Colorado
increases the pressure gradient and causes the southerly wind to
increase to 10-20 knots through sunrise. As the low kicks out of
eastern Colorado and moves east, wind will begin to shift back to
the north starting around 9Z. A 40 knot LLJ may cause some wind
shear issues after midnight, especially during the wind shift.
Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.


DDC  28  62  36  76 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  26  62  34  75 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  30  62  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  30  63  35  78 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  26  59  33  72 /   0   0   0   0
P28  32  63  34  69 /  10   0   0   0




SHORT TERM...Reynolds
LONG TERM...Reynolds
AVIATION...Reynolds is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.