Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 140037
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
737 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

...updated for aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave pushing
eastward across the Central Plains this evening then lifting
northeast into the Great Lakes Region overnight. Meanwhile, a
stronger upper level trough will continue to dig southeast across
the Colorado Rockies this evening and into the Western High Plains
later tonight bringing widespread precip chances to portions of
western and central Kansas through late Monday morning. Snow, with
a possible mix of light rain early, is expected to develop across
extreme southwest Kansas sometime this evening as the upper level
shortwave begins to move out of the Colorado Rockies into the high
plains of eastern Colorado. Based on NAM/GFS model soundings, any
liquid precip this evening is likely to switch over to snow west to
east overnight. Although the flow aloft will remain fairly marginal
with the strength of the upper level jet remaining well to our south
across Texas, the best chance for accumulating snow will be across
southwest Kansas generally along and south of highway 50. This is
mainly due to increased H7 frontogenetic banding forecast to
develop across extreme southwest Kansas overnight as an H5 vort
max ejects eastward out of the shortwave trough axis into
southwest Kansas and the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas.

As far as snow totals are concerned, the NAM/GFS show QPF values a
little over a quarter inch cutting across southern portions of
southwest Kansas along the Oklahoma border after 06Z. However,
higher soil temperatures due to extremely warm temperatures in
recent days may hinder accumulating snow initially, especially if
preceded briefly by light rain wetting the ground. Snow
accumulations of 1-3 inches will be possible generally along and
south of highway 50. A few locally higher amounts are still
possible north of highway 50.

Temperatures will be well below normal tonight as much colder air
surges southward into western Kansas in wake of frontal passage
early this morning. The H85 isotherm is projected to plunge
southward well into north Texas by early Monday morning, and with
upstream surface temperatures already down into the lower 30s(F) and
upper 20s(F), similar temperatures can be expected across central
and southwest Kansas tonight for lows. Freeze and Hard Freeze
warnings have already been issued for west central, southwest, and
portions of central Kansas late tonight. Highs may struggle to
reach the 40s(F) in some locations tomorrow depending on how
quickly cloud cover decreases and how much snowpack lingers across
the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

On Monday night the upper level trough will move east into the
mid Mississippi Valley and an upper level ridge weakens as it
moves east into the Rockies. An area of high pressure at the
surface will exit southwest Kansas and crosses the panhandle of
Texas during the overnight hours. Given the clearing trend
expected in the wake of the upper level trough and light west to
southwest winds will stay close to the previous forecast with
overnight lows mainly in the mid 20s.

Northwesterly flow will back more to the west allowing for
downslope flow to improve by early Tuesday. Net 24hour change in
the 850mb temperatures from 00z Tuesday to 00z Wednesday from the
NAM, GFS, and the ECMWF was around 8C. Based on this trend and
850mb temperatures, a mostly sunny afternoon, and 00z Wednesday
ranging from around 7C in central Kansas to around 13c near the
Colorado border will continue to favor highs in the low to mid
60s.

An upper level trough, located around 140W earlier this morning,
will cross the Central Rockies Tuesday night which will result in
falling surface pressures across eastern Colorado and increasing
the southwest winds over western Kansas. A cold front will move
quickly south across the Northern Plains Tuesday night and by
Wednesday afternoon cross western Kansas. 850mb temperatures at
18z Wednesday and 00z Thursday south of the approaching cold front
continues to support highs climbing into the lower 70s. At this
time it appears these warm temperatures will be primarily located
near the Oklahoma border while further north the highs on
Wednesday are expected to be mainly in the low to mid 60s,
especially along and north of the I70 corridor where increasing
clouds are expected Wednesday afternoon. In addition to the
increase in clouds late Wednesday and Wednesday night there will
also be a chance for rain or snow as an upper level trough crosses
Central Plains mid week.

Cloud cover and cooler air behind the cold front will result in
keeping temperatures across much of western Kansas in the mid to
upper 40s on Thursday. The cool dome of high pressure at the
surface will move east/southwest across the Central Plains
Thursday night and early Friday which will likely result in lows
Thursday night around 30 under mostly clear skies. Highs on Friday
are expected to be mainly in the upper 50s to near 65. A warming
trend is then expected Saturday and Sunday with highs rebounding
back at least into the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 735 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

North surface winds will persist this evening following a strong
isallobaric rise. As the left quadrant of the upper jet and
attendant shortwave approaches this evening, light rain and snow
will become more widespread after 06 UTC over the GCK and DDC
terminals through around 12 UTC. Stratus will become lower with
time into the IFR category overnight as the boundary layer
saturates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  28  43  23  63 /  70  30   0   0
GCK  27  42  23  64 /  70  20   0   0
EHA  27  40  27  65 /  80  20   0   0
LBL  28  42  24  65 /  80  30   0   0
HYS  28  45  23  64 /  40  20   0   0
P28  32  45  24  63 /  50  40   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM CDT /Midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8
AM MDT/ Monday FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>078-084-085.

HARD FREEZE WATCH from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday FOR KSZ066-079>081-
086>090.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT Monday FOR KSZ074>076-
084>087.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Russell






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