378
FXUS63 KDDC 250655
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
155 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Persistent mid level altostratus clouds continue this morning
across much of SW KS, beneath continued NW flow aloft. While
moisture and instability are weak, embedded vorticity maxima in
the NW flow keeps the occasional shower or thunderstorm possible,
as seen by the recent convective development near Goodland this
hour. HRRR suggests NW KS activity will spread into our northern
counties through sunrise, with additional storms in far SW KS
(near Elkhart) by 4 am or so. Latest HRRR runs indicate rain
showers persisting NE of Dodge City into at least the early
afternoon hours. Really don`t have a good feel where showers and
thunderstorms are more likely versus less likely, so just
broadbrushed slight chance pops everywhere through today. With
very limited instability, opted to include showers and only
isolated thunder in the grids. Certainly, no severe weather is
expected. Best chance of a stronger storm will be across the far
west near the CO/KS border this evening, where NAM increases CAPE
to a modest 1000 J/kg. Tweaked sky grids upward with model
forecast soundings and short term models all showing the mid layer
cloud decks near 7-9k ft persisting. Strong (for late June)
surface high (1028 mb) over central Nebraska at sunrise will
translate SE to near Kansas City by 7 pm. While modest southerly
return flow will begin today, the general cool/dry/stable boundary
layer associated with this anticyclone will be in control for one
more day. Winds will back more SEly by late in the day. With
upslope components, and continued thick mid clouds, and 850 mb
temps going virtually nowhere from yesterday, expect comfortable
high temperatures again today, within a few degrees of 80.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms remain in the forecast through
tonight, with coverage favoring the SW counties. Cloud cover will
hold temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s Monday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Typical early summer weather will prevail this week, with
temperatures returning to seasonably hot levels and daily chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Convection is possible somewhere in
SW KS each and every day, as shown by 00z MEX guidance, with pops
at or above climatology every day through July 1st.

Monday...the warming trend begins, as the Desert SW upper high
begins to weaken. Under continued NW flow aloft, temperatures still
below normal, in the mid 80s. Instability begins to return Monday
afternoon, with 0z NAM/GFS both increasing CAPE into the 1500
J/kg range. Model blended pops of 20-30% are justified, highest
during peak heating.

Tuesday...Subtropical upper high over the Desert SW weakens
further, retreating westward out into the Pacific. This synoptic
reorientation will force more zonal flow across the central
plains, which in turn will sharpen lee cyclogenesis/troughing and
allow the dryline to establish. Strong south winds expected
Tuesday, gusting easily 30-40 mph. GFS places dryline in the
vicinity of the CO/KS border at peak heating, with thunderstorms
propogating into SW KS Tuesday evening. With CAPE well in excess
of 2000 J/kg and improved bulk shear, some storms will likely be
severe with hail and/or wind potential. Pop grids favor the NW
zones Tuesday evening, following warmer highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s (back to late June normals).

Wednesday...Thunderstorm prospects shift toward the eastern zones,
as flow aloft becomes W/SW and dryline makes further progress
eastward. Some storms east of US 283 may be severe again
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Much hotter, with all locations
well into the 90s. Hottest locales in far SW KS behind the dryline
will make a run for 100.

Thursday through Saturday...ECMWF shows flow aloft trending NWly
again, keeping daily thunderstorm chances alive each day, at least
somewhere in SW KS. GFS shows instability will remain plentiful,
and storm intensity and coverage will depend on dryline placement
and weak disturbances aloft to help with forcing. After another
hot day Thursday in the 90s, temperatures are expected to moderate
back closer to normal with a cold frontal passage and NE winds on
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

VFR will continue at the airports through this TAF cycle. Mid
layer cloud decks around 7-9k ft AGL continue to be very
persistent along and south of a GCK-DDC line on satellite imagery.
Model soundings and consensus of short term models agree this
will not change much through Sunday, with overcast altocumulus or
altostratus persisting near 7k ft. After 21z Sun, cigs lower some
more to near 4k ft AGL at GCK and LBL. Kept DDC/GCK TAFs dry
through Sunday. The exception will be LBL, where NAM model shows
convection in the TX panhandle through much of Sunday, close
enough to warrant VCTS/CB. NAM also has TSRA near/just NE of HYS
by 00z Monday. A modest increase in S/SW winds at DDC/GCK/LBL
after 15z, averaging 10-15 kts, backing more SEly after 21z. Winds
expected to stay more NEly at HYS at similar speeds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  79  62  84 /  10  20  20  20
GCK  56  77  59  84 /  20  20  30  20
EHA  57  75  61  84 /  40  30  40  30
LBL  60  76  63  83 /  30  20  30  30
HYS  56  77  59  82 /  10  30  30  20
P28  60  83  62  85 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner