000
FXUS63 KDDC 142046
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
346 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

...UPDATED FOR LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

WATER VAPOR AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WAS LOCATED NORTH OF A 500MB LOW WHICH
WAS LOCATED JUST EAST OF EL PASO TX AT 12Z FRIDAY. NORTHWEST OF
THIS UPPER LOW A 500MB DEFORMATION ZONE APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM
EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDED NORTH FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. AT THE 700MB LEVEL A LARGE AREA OF +14 TO +15C
TEMPERATURES EXTENDED FROM DODGE CITY TO DENVER TO NEAR NORTH
PLATTE. FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE UPPER LOW COOLER 700MB TEMPERATURES
WERE OBSERVED WITH +8C AT MIDLAND TX. 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 12Z
WERE AT 24C AT DODGE CITY AND NORTH PLATTE. AT THE SURFACE EARLIER
THIS MORNING A STATIONARY/WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER WEST A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THIS COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR EASTERN
COLORADO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

AT 18Z A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
EASTERN COLORADO WITH CU DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BASED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE. 0-6KM SHEAR ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AT 21Z
FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY RANGED FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THE
BETTER SHEAR APPEARING FURTHER NORTH. THE 12Z NAM ALSO INDICATED
CAPES FROM 500 TO 2000J/KG NEAR THIS BOUNDARY LATE TODAY.
CORFIDI VECTORS, MEAN CLOUD LAYER WINDS, AND BUNKER STORM MOTION ALL
SUGGESTING ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP LATE TODAY WILL MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT THESE STORMS LATE TODAY SHOULD STAY
JUST NORTH OF WEST CENTRAL OR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS 10 TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
STORMS IN THIS AREA EARLY TONIGHT WHICH STILL APPEARS REASONABLE.

FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS LOCATED EAST OF
EL PASO TX AT 12Z WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GIVEN THE IMPROVING MOISTURE IN THE 800 TO 700MB LEVEL AND LIFT
FORECAST AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
INTRODUCE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A DODGE CITY TO PRATT LINE. GIVEN THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE
OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S
BUT A FEW UPPER 60S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FURTHER NORTH.

ON SATURDAY THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A 700MB-500MB DEFORMATION
ZONE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE 800MB-
700MB MOISTURE PROFILES, TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW, AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL FOCUS THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY IN
THE DAY ALONG AND EAST OF A LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY TO HAYS LINE. AS
THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON, SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR SOME FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE 700-500 DEFORMATION ZONE CROSSES WESTERN KS. GIVEN SOME
AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS WILL TREND TEMPERATURE TOWARDS
THE WARMER NAM 2M TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WHILE
FURTHER EAST LEFT HIGHS CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET/MAV/MOSGUIDE
GUIDANCE. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO VARY FROM
THE MID 80S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 95 NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT
WHICH SHOULD HAVE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE CURRENT UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN STATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A
RESULT, UPPER RIDGING WILL BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES, INTO THE EXTREME WESTERN PLAINS CREATING A
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH TIME.

IN THE MEANTIME, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SHOWN SOME RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IN PRODUCING LATE DAY CONVECTION SUNDAY ACROSS THE THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. BESIDE THE CHANCE FOR AN INITIAL SEVERE
CONVECTION HAIL AND WIND THREAT, THE MODELS DRIVE AN MCS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT AND INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES AND AMOUNTS COULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS PATTERN, MUCH OF THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DEPENDS ON THE OCCURRENCE OF A MID LEVEL TRANSIENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH THE MODELS DEVELOP. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY
WITH HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE AREA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO CARRY WIDESPREAD 55-60 PERCENT OR HIGHER POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT.

BETWEEN RAIN COOLED AIR, POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS AND EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND TRAJECTORIES (A COMPLETE LACK OF
DOWNSLOPE SURFACE WINDS) HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BACK TOWARD
TYPICAL HIGHS FOR MID JUNE (GENERALLY CLIMBING THROUGH THE MID
80`S). ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME APPEAR MORE CLOSELY LINKED TO DIURNAL HEATING INDUCED
SURFACE BASED STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COLORADO ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE MODELS STILL TEND TO OVERTURN
INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS,
AND GIVEN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER, SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE PLAUSIBLE EVEN IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN KS. LOCATIONS FROM AROUND HIGHWAY 23 EASTWARD WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY WITH THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW AND INSTABILITY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER RIDGE TOPPING SHORTWAVE.

BESIDE HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL, OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILD IN THE MID TO UPPER 60`S, POSSIBLE
EVEN AROUND 70 DEGREES OR HIGHER ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE DEW
POINTS WILL BE HIGHEST. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE
EAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY BE ON THE UPSWING BACK THROUGH THE 90`S BY LATE IN THE
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS NEAR 25KTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
TODAY. THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS DECOUPLES. MOISTURE IN THE 800MB TO 700MB LAYER WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES
NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS WEST TEXAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  90  69  90 /  20  30  30  20
GCK  68  92  68  88 /  10  20  40  20
EHA  68  94  68  92 /  10  20  30  20
LBL  69  92  69  94 /  20  20  30  20
HYS  70  88  68  87 /  10  30  30  20
P28  74  88  71  92 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ043-044-061>063-074>077.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURGERT