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FXUS63 KDDC 151730
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1230 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Breezy S/SE winds and seasonably warm/hot this afternoon with
scattered cirrus. Most locales will top out in the lower 90s, on
par for mid August. Dewpoints in the 60s will be maintained, and
instability (MLCAPE) axis currently seen on mesoanalysis across
W/NW Kansas will persist and strengthen. 12z NAM increases CAPE
to near 3000 J/kg across the western zones 5-7 pm.

Convective evolution this evening through tonight is a challenge,
and it will be interesting to see how it turns out. Numerous
factors lead to a high confidence in thunderstorms across western
Kansas through tonight. Primary shortwave over Utah at midday will
continue to advance into Kansas through tonight, but the eastward
timing looks slow enough that it may prevent a higher end
thunderstorm event from occurring. 12z GFS doesn`t get its
primary shortwave to the CO/KS border until late tonight/sunrise.
Still, forcing for ascent is sufficient on GFS ahead of this
wave, to generate showers and thunderstorms all night. NAM/ECWMF
offer a similar timing. It appears the NAM picks up on a leading
secondary vorticity max that ignites a strong MCS across SW KS
this evening. CAMs, typical of summer, are wildly divergent and
offer little assistance. Conceptually, have high confidence of
thunderstorm development through tonight, as forcing increases
aloft over various surface boundaries and ample instability. Some
severe hail and/or wind is likely, along with very heavy rainfall,
when/where/if the MCS decides to track/mature. High precipitable
water argues that we will need to monitor hydrology issues through
tonight. Confidence way too low on placement to issue a flash
flood watch, but the potential is certainly there. ECMWF continues
to suggest a strong MCS across northern/central KS overnight
tonight, impacting the NE zones (I-70 corridor). With the primary
shortwave`s later timing, the MCS may go well into Wednesday
morning. Increased pops as far as I felt comfortable (55-60%) and
included heavy rain/gusty wind wording in the grids.

Behind the MCS/shortwave on Wednesday, surface winds will trend
northwest to north at 10-20 mph. This process is expected to
scour instability nicely to our SE into Oklahoma, and effectively
end the risk of thunderstorms for most locations. Kept some low
pops along the eastern border Wednesday afternoon, but suspect any
thunderstorm redevelopment will occur east/SE of our CWA.
Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler, but with sufficient
sunshine in the afternoon, still expecting mid to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Some lingering convection will be possible early Wednesday
morning as an upper level trough crosses the central Kansas. A
cool dome of high pressure will build into western Kansas during
the afternoon as a surface frontal boundary drops south across
Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle. The chance for precipitation
Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday currently appears low
and highs mainly in 85 to 90 degree range across western Kansas
Wednesday and Thursday still looks on track.

The next chance for convection for will be on Thursday night as
another upper level trough, embedded in the west southwesterly
flow, crosses the central and southern Rockies and moves out into
the plains. With a moist up slope flow present north of the
surface boundary across the panhandle of Oklahoma/southeast
Colorado and southwest Kansas this currently appears to be the
most favorable area for late day and evening convection. This area
of convection will move east during the overnight hours so much
of southwest Kansas and possibly even south central Kansas will
have a chance for this next round of thunderstorms. Again heavy
rainfall will be possible and these storms may also contain some
gusty winds and hail, especially early Thursday night.

How quickly these storms cross western Kansas will be key for any
early morning convection on Friday across south central Kansas,
but by late Friday afternoon and Friday night it appears that
there will be another chance for convection across all of western
Kansas once again as the next in a series of upper waves cross the
Western High Plains. The chance for thunderstorms will continue
through the weekend into early next week with the better
opportunity for western Kansas being Sunday night.

After a brief cool down mid week to late week the temperatures
are expected to rebound back into the 90s over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

High confidence of convection across the area later tonight with
low confidence in regards to the specific timing and location. A
shortwave will move in from the desert southwest triggering
thunderstorm initation in eastern Colorado. Initial thought is the
round of storms will be affecting GCK and LBL roughly around 0Z
and DDC, HYS around 03Z. The storms due have the capability of
strong winds and heavy rain so brief visibility issues are
possible. A better idea on how the convection is going will be
available in the 0Z TAF. From 12Z on depending on how the
convection evolves a low cloud stratus deck is expected for all
airports through 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  68  86  62 /  20  60  30  10
GCK  91  65  85  60 /  30  60  20  10
EHA  91  63  85  61 /  40  60  10  10
LBL  94  67  87  63 /  40  60  10  10
HYS  89  68  84  62 /  30  60  40  10
P28  90  72  90  67 /  20  60  30  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Tatro