Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 062300
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1219 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

A large trough over the northern plains will continue to sink
southward into southwest Kansas tonight. A mid level cloud deck
looks to move in through the evening and early overnight hours in
association with a shortwave and a backdoor cold front. There
looks to be very little moisture for these features to work with
there could certainly be a brief period of mostly cloudy skies.

By sunrise Thursday, the coldest of the air from the arctic
should be in southwest Kansas. Went on the colder side for
overnight lows as the winds should die down combining with the dry
ground and 850 temps falling to around -10(C). Depending on when
the cloud deck erodes completely and the driest of the air moves
in overnight lows could fall into the low 10s but kept it at the
mid 10s at this point.

Thursday afternoon the cold air mass looks to hang around
southwest Kansas through the day leading to below normal
temperatures for the area. Sunshine should be prevalent through
the region as an area of high pressure moves in from Nebraska. As
the high moves eastward through the day winds looks to pick back
up especially for areas near the Colorado border.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 118 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

A very amplified pattern in the upper levels will be the big story
throughout the long term. There will be a Hudson Bay low staying
fairly stationary in eastern Canada with a large upper level ridge
over the western half of the US. The other story will be the
continued dry weather pattern with no real chance of any
precipitation through the time period.

Friday looks to be another elevated fire risk day with winds
picking up out of the northwest 25-35 mph and relative humidities
falling to 15-20%

Sunday will be a day of milder temperatures with a downslope west
wind and sunny skies.

Much of next week looks like an up and down trend with
temperatures as much of western Kansas will be right along the
border of the polar jet.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 500 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

VFR through this TAF forecast cycle, with broken stratocumulus
near HYS for the next few hours. Strong gusty NW winds will
weaken rapidly at sunset, and remain NW at 7-10 kts overnight
as a strong (1038 mb) surface high builds south to near Scott City
around 12z Thu. After 15z Thu, NW winds will increase once again,
but at speeds less than those observed on Wednesday. NW winds will
range from 12-22 kts at HYS, to 18-28 kts at GCK/LBL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  15  35  21  53 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  15  37  22  54 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  16  37  25  55 /   0   0  10   0
LBL  17  37  23  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  13  33  22  50 /   0   0  10   0
P28  14  36  18  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Turner



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