000
FXUS63 KDDC 031942
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
142 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2014

...Update to short term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

Tonight:

Some mid to high level clouds will continue tonight in association with
a jet streak passing off to the southeast. Southerly winds will become
SSW/SW after midnight. The downslope winds should lead to higher minimums
for much of the region, except over deeper snowpack. Calling for mid to
upper 20sF by Elkhart to upper single digits to lower teens across the
deeper snowpack (generally along and east of Highway 183).

Tomorrow:

The HRRR is suggesting fog formation tonight, but this is different
than what the WRF is suggesting. Think the model fields might be too
heavily influenced by the model snowpack. If fog does develop, it will
be patchy.

Lee troughing will continue tomorrow. Downslope, compressional warming
is expected ahead of a frontal boundary. This front will traverse the
region after my short-term period ends. A fairly impressive gradient
of maximum temperatures is expected across the forecast area of responsibility.
Low 60sF will be possible across the western zones, where the warmest
850 hPa temperatures are expected along with the strongest downslope
wind component. Have undercut temperature guidance farther east across
the heavier snowpack areas, where low 40sF are possible for highs. Any
precipitation will remain outside of my period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

A trough of low pressure will remain nearly stationary along the
lee of the Rockies on Tuesday as a cold front moves south into
Nebraska by late day. Ahead of this cold front an area of warm
925mb to 850mb air is forecast to cross western Kansas during the
afternoon. Using the 00z Wednesday 850mb temperatures as a guide
for highs the potential exists for temperatures climb back into
the 60s given full sun. At this time however will only trend
towards these warmer temperatures only across west central and
portions of far western Kansas given the potential for clouds
along with some linger snow cover. Confidence is not high on where
the snow cover will be on Tuesday but using the Dual Pol Storm
Total Accum estimates as a guide will favor keeping some lingering
snow cover southeast of a Liberal to Dodge City to Larned line. In
this area trended afternoon temperatures towards the cooler MET
guidance which suggested highs only in the lower 40s.

Both the NAM and GFS agree in moving a cold front across
southwest Kansas Tuesday night with increasing low and mid level
moisture developing in the wake of this cold front late Tuesday
night/early Wednesday. Despite the agreement in frontal passage
the NAM and GFS disagree on the depth and how quickly the lower
levels saturate. NAM was more aggressive and as a result attempts
to generate some light precipitation between 06z and 12z across
most of southwest Kansas as an upper level trough crosses the
Central High Plains. GFS was not as aggressive and therefore kept
the precipitation chances in west central and portions of north
central Kansas where the better mid level moisture and forcing
will be present prior to 12z Wednesday. Given the uncertainty on
how the lower levels will saturate late Tuesday night will
currently favor the GFS and keep small precipitation chances
mainly across west central and north central Kansas based on where
the better mid level forcing will be located ahead of this mid
week upper level system.

On Wednesday the upper level trough will cross western Kansas
early in the day with subsidence and drying forecast during the
afternoon behind this upper level system. Based on the 00z NAM and
00z GFS timing of this upper level trough will keep a chance of
precipitation going early Wednesday but taper this precipitation
off from west to east, mainly after 18z. Given the net 24hour
change in 950 to 850mb temperatures of roughly 3 to 7C the
previous forecast still look on track with Highs on Wednesday
mainly in the 40s. Lower 50s still look likely across portions of
southwest Kansas. May even be a little warmer than this across far
western Kansas if skies clear sooner.

CRExtendFcst_Init still looks on track with Highs rebounding back
into the upper 50s to mid 60s on Thursday given that 850mb
temperatures warm from the single digits into the teens. Another
cold front crossing into western Kansas on Friday will put an end
to this warming trend with cooler temperatures returning by
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST MON MAR 3 2014

VFR conditions through TAF pd. Some mid to high level clouds, but no
major flight category reductions. Southerly winds 8-12 kt today becoming
southwesterly 6-11 kt overnight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  11  45  27  44 /   0   0  10  30
GCK  13  52  28  46 /   0   0  10  30
EHA  23  60  33  52 /   0   0  10  20
LBL  15  52  30  50 /   0   0  10  20
HYS  10  45  25  39 /   0   0  20  40
P28  11  40  25  42 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Sugden