969
FXUS63 KDDC 062039
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
339 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One or more strong to severe, fairly large thunderstorm
  clusters likely to move southeast across western Kansas
  through the night tonight.

- Main severe risk will be damaging straight line winds to 70
  mph, perhaps isolated higher than that, particularly west of
  Highway 283 and north of Highway 50.

- Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday
  and Monday Night and even into Tuesday as a fairly strong
  upper level jet remains across the High Plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Another night of thunderstorms in the forecast tonight, with the
main challenges being severity/magnitude of the expected mesoscale
convective system(s), timing, and placement of the thunderstorm
clusters tonight.

First of all, none of the convection allowing models (CAMs) captured
the ongoing small MCS moving southeast across southwest Nebraska as
of 20Z. This MCS was tapping into higher SBCAPE with the
southernmost storm SVR-warned about to move almost straight south
across the Kansas line. Should this initial cluster make it down to
the I-70 corridor, large hail to 1.5"+ in diameter and damaging
winds to 70 mph would be the main concern some time after 23Z (6 PM
CDT). Otherwise, the "main show" would be coming out of
northeast/east central Colorado later tonight at the nose of a 60kt
250mb jet streak. Good low level upslope winds across western Kansas
were advecting upper 60s/around 70F dewpoints closer to the Colorado
line. Initial storms were developing along the Palmer Divide, which
will track east or east-southeast along I-70 into northwestern
Kansas, perhaps merging with the ongoing southwest Nebraska MCS. A
severe wind risk (60-70mph peak gusts) will exist as the MCS (or a
couple MCSs) mature(s) later this evening as it moves into west
central and southwest Kansas. The morning 12Z HREF probabilistic and
ensemble mean convective fields show a good signal of one or more
MCSs rolling southeast through the night. The latest 18Z
deterministic NAM12 model is even more aggressive than the 12Z run
in its convective QPF signal all through the night. We have
increased POPs to 60+ across more of southwest Kansas, and may need
to bump them up even more.

There should be a decrease in the convective activity and/or MCS(s)
moving east of our southwest Kansas region in the 09-15Z time frame
early tomorrow morning. This will no doubt leave an outflow boundary
somewhere across our southwest KS region tomorrow, but this will
slowly diminish by mid to late afternoon, so it is unclear how much
of a role, if any, remaining outflow boundaries play with respect to
convective initiation. 700mb temperatures will be slightly warmer,
so there may be a bit stronger capping inversion in place, but as
temperatures warm to around 90 degrees, it would not take much low
level convergence to initiate storms (outside of the more obvious
initiation across the higher terrain of Colorado). A Slight Risk
from SPC continues for the Day 2 Outlook tomorrow.

After Monday, the upper level ridge will continue to expand its
influence across the Colorado Rockies toward far western Kansas with
even warmer 700mb temperatures, however once again even late
Tuesday/Tuesday evening, good dewpoints in place (upper 60s/lower
70s) with southeasterly surface winds in place will probably be
enough for another round of storms across the Central High
Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Aviation weather will be pretty good this afternoon through much
of the evening, although an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot
be ruled out given the high dewpoints, upslope surface winds,
and a weak cap. The better chance for much more organized
thunderstorm activity affecting terminals will be later on
tonight, so we will maintain PROB30 group for thunderstorms at
GCK, DDC, and HYS for a 4 to 5 hour window. Subsequent TAF
updates/amendments will need to narrow in on a more focused
window for storms duration and timing at individual airports based
on satellite and radar trends.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid