Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 041735
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1135 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

Quiet weather through Monday, and actually quite pleasant for
early December standards. Sky is clear as of noon, and will remain
that way through Monday morning. SW winds will remain elevated
overnight through sunrise Monday, as low level jet increases
SWly 850 mb winds to near 40 kts. Gusts at the surface near
20 mph will prevail tonight, despite nocturnal decoupling. With
the mixed boundary layer, temperatures tonight will be held well
above early December normals, in the upper 20s and lower 30s
(normal at Dodge City is 23).

Monday...Mild and dry. SW winds will pick up abruptly after
sunrise, as the LLJ dissipates and mixes down. Temperatures will
be allowed to warm quickly late morning into the early afternoon,
given full sunshine, downslope winds, and prefrontal warming
effects. Nudged up expected high temperatures a few degrees, to
the mid 50s to near 60, with 60 most likely from Elkhart to
Hugoton to Liberal. SW winds will relax during the afternoon hours
as the pressure gradient relaxes, and the first strong cold front
approaches from the north.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 216 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

An upper level disturbance will move into the Northern Plains
Monday and help push a surface cold front through western Kansas
Monday afternoon into Monday night. Southerly winds will be felt
ahead of this front with gusty northerly winds behind it. No
precipitation is expected at this time with only a slight increase
in cloud cover. A more vigorous shortwave will then move through
the Central Rockies and into the Central Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This will bring another shot of cold air to western
Kansas. The atmosphere above western Kansas will become saturated
at this time bringing mostly cloudy skies and a chance of
precipitation. Temperatures in the lower levels should remain
below zero leading to all snow in the forecast. With the strong
northerly winds behind this front, blowing snow will be possible,
especially during the day Wednesday. Dry conditions are then
anticipated through at least Friday as high pressure dominates the
region. Another storm system is depicted by the extended models.
This will need to be monitored as time passes. As for
temperatures, highs look to reach into the lower 50s Monday then
plummet into the 30s Tuesday with mid to upper 20s expected
Wednesday and Thursday. Highs then rebound into the 30s Friday
with 40s on Saturday. Lows will start out ranging from the teens
along the KS/CO border Monday night then down into the single
digits by Wednesday morning. Lows then rebound into the lower 20s
by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

No major impacts aviation wise through this afternoon. Tonight
wind shear will be a factor as the lower level winds are expected
to pick up out of the southwest with a low level jet moving in.
Winds will stay breezy through the morning on Monday ahead of a
cold front which will move in and switch the winds by late
afternoon tomorrow.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  30  55  23 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  51  28  58  22 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  50  30  60  21 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  51  29  60  23 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  49  29  54  24 /   0   0   0   0
P28  54  29  58  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Tatro



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