Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 290822
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
222 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2013
...Updated long term discussion...
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST THU NOV 28 2013
Water vapor imagery and 00Z upper air analysis indicate a
prevailing westerly flow aloft across the Western High Plains.
Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is shifting slowly
southeastward across the Upper Midwest while a dry and fairly
cold air mass remains in place across western Kansas with surface
dewpoints primarily in the 20s(F).
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CST FRI NOV 29 2013
Short range models indicate the general zonal flow aloft persisting
across the Western High Plains through Friday night. Even with a
gradual strengthening of the flow aloft as a strong jet approaches
from the west, a lack of low/mid level moisture will lend to dry
conditions continuing across western Kansas through the period.
Warmer temperatures are likely today as a developing lee side
trough quickly strengthens across eastern Colorado. This will
bring about a more southerly low level flow across western Kansas
by mid to late morning, in turn drawing warmer air northward into
the area. As a result, look for highs generally up into the 50s(F)
this afternoon with a few upper 40s(F) still possible closer to
the I-70 corridor. For Friday night, the lee side trough will
edge eastward into western Kansas during the night turning winds
more west to northwesterly, helping to erode the colder air mass
somewhat. So, lows can be expected down into the upper 20s(F) to
near 30F early Saturday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST FRI NOV 29 2013
Fairly benign weather will continue through this weekend as a
confluent zonal flow pattern will be in place over the central part
of the country. A weak shortwave trough moving over western Kansas
early Saturday will bring a few mid/high level clouds along with a
shift to northwest winds. Another weak shortwave trough will move
out over the central High Plains on Sunday with similar weather
conditions. Lee side troughing will develop by late Monday as an
upper level low pressure system digs into the Pacific Northwest and
westerly flow aloft increases over the central High Plains.
Temperatures will be around or a little above seasonal norms for
early December through Tuesday.
A lot of uncertainty continues regarding the evolution of the upper
level trough/low pressure system through the middle part of next
week. Ensemble members from the GFS and GEM tend to show a slower
movement as the system drops into the northwest. Beyond this time,
the GFS and ECMWF are in a little better agreement with how the
system ejects eastward while the GEM is a lot faster and deeper. A
cold front should move south into the central High Plains sometime
around Tuesday night or Wednesday as the upper trough drops
southward through the Rockies. Low level moisture will be moving
northward into the central Plains ahead of the front. This could
develop into some light rain over central Kansas Tuesday night but
am not overly confident this will occur. Better chances for light
snow or light rain changing to light snow will develop by Thursday
as much colder air moves south into the central Plains.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU NOV 28 2013
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites overnight. However,
low level stratus and areas of fog may develop across extreme
southwest Kansas toward daybreak as already high relative humidity
increases while a southeasterly upslope flow develops early this
morning. IFR cigs/vsbys will be possible as far east as KGCK with
any potential restrictions dissipating mid to late morning. As for
winds, lee side troughing will develop and strengthen across
eastern Colorado as the surface high in the Upper Midwest slips
further southeastward throughout the day. As a result, light
easterly winds overnight will become more southeasterly 5 to 10kt
toward sunrise, then become more southerly Friday afternoon while
increasing up to around 15 to 25kt.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 52 28 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 51 27 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 56 28 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 54 28 57 27 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 48 25 53 26 / 0 0 0 0
P28 52 30 56 30 / 0 0 0 0