000
FXUS63 KDDC 131827
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
127 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

...Updated Short Term and Aviation Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Much cooler temperatures have moved in with the first of two cold
fronts. Visible satellite confirmed stratus in the cold sector
across western/northern KS, although starting to thin/scatter out
as of 18z. The front pushed all the way down into the central TX
Panhandle at 18z. The front will stall out and begin to
dissolve/become warm frontogenetic tonight as a fairly substantial
shortwave trough digs southeast into western Wyoming by 12z
Saturday. This will induce leeside troughing above the remnant
shallow cold pool. The question will be how quickly the shallow
cold pool erodes. All the short-term high resolution models
suggest that this will happen overnight, so there is at least some
moderate confidence in the front lifting/redeveloping back north
into southwest KS with west/southwest winds at the surface
allowing a warm downslope plume to spread east-northeast across
far southwest KS. Highs in Elkhart to Liberal corridor could reach
the mid 80s tomorrow, but just north of here by a couple counties,
temperatures will likely struggle to make it through the 60s.

Much of the high-resolution model solution suite suggest dense fog
forming across portions of west central KS where surface winds
veer around to the east-southeast in response to the development
of the new surface wave as discussed in the previous paragraph.
Will include areas of fog mainly along/north of the Ark River and
west of U283. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed eventually, but
confidence in coverage and density still fairly unclear at this
time.

As far as thunderstorm chances go, since the first front is a bit
farther south than previously expected, the southwest-northeast
band of higher POPs have shifted a bit farther southeast. There is
pretty good agreement among the CAMs this morning of thunderstorm
development affecting mainly Comanche, Barber, and perhaps Pratt
County in the 06-12z time frame. There will be enough CAPE from
elevated parcel and deep layer shear to support at least a
marginal severe hail storm or two, so that threat will need to be
watched overnight as well.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

For Saturday, a front will slam southward through the day with a
strong several hour isallobaric response. The net result is strong
northerly winds of 25-30 kt for a few hours. Any convection
associated with the front looks to be mainly SE of the forecast
area. Still, cannot rule out storms across the southeastern zones
and the loaded fb pops look reasonable for now. There could be
some marginal severe Saturday evening, however, the undercutting
nature of the front along with low level flow that is parallel to
mean cloud wind will favor quick upscale growth, which will
certainly limit the larger hail size potential. A few downbursts
are more likely.

Beyond this, high pressure builds in Sunday morning. Will have to
watch out for frost potential as some guidance is coming in with
lows in the mid 30s across the western zones. Sunday should be
pleasant with widespread lower 60s and significantly less strong
wind magnitudes.

Looking to next week, the weather pattern is rather tranquil with
weak flow aloft and weak lee troughing at the sfc. Temperatures
will moderate back into the 70s through the middle portion of the
work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

MVFR ceilings have lingered at HYS through the early afternoon,
and visible satellite showing only a slow erosion at HYS.
Otherwise, the rest of the terminals were VFR with a northwest
wind around 12 knots. MVFR and eventually IFR ceilings will return
overnight as low level moisture advances north ahead of the next
storm system. Thunderstorm activity overnight is expected to
remain southeast of all the terminals, so will keep convection out
for now. Fog is expected to develop around the GCK terminal, but
should be on the edge of a potential dense fog area, but at the
very least should see LIFR ceilings for a couple hours 09-14z time
frame. DDC, HYS, LBL should see IFR 09-15z before eroding
thereafter.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  54  78  39 /   0  30  30  20
GCK  64  51  74  35 /   0  20  10  10
EHA  69  56  81  37 /   0  10  10   0
LBL  69  58  83  38 /   0  30  20  10
HYS  60  53  63  38 /   0  30  30  10
P28  74  60  77  44 /  10  50  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Umscheid