Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 121208
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
608 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

...Updated Mesoscale Discussion...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 600 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Gradual erosion of the west edge of the extensive stratus deck
covering most of Kansas has allowed for radiational cooling of the
saturated boundary layer near the Colorado border early this
morning. Local visibilities as low as a quarter of a mile in fog
can be expected through 0900 CST especially in low lying areas. No
headlines are planned given the limited coverage and transient
character of the fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Widespread stratus continues to plague Kansas this morning in a
moist post-frontal environment. So far, fog has again been rather
limited, with visibility holding around 1 mile at several
locations. Will maintain inherited dense fog advisory with the
expectation that stratus layers near 200-500 ft AGL will lower
closer to the surface through sunrise. Regardless, stratus clouds
will persist most of Sunday morning, which will hold temperatures
well above freezing in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Sunday will start off gray and dreary with widespread stratus
holding tough through 9-10 AM, along with areas of fog and
drizzle. Expectation is for low clouds to erode from west to east
during the midday hours, but now that we are in the weak sun of
mid-November, and flow will be weak with a strong surface high
nearby, there is always the question of how efficient the low
cloud erosion will be. For instance, 00z NAM forecast soundings
for Dodge City show the stratus lifting some, but never really
breaking, through this afternoon. Even with the expected
afternoon sunshine, cool high pressure near 1030 mb across the
eastern CWA, and 850 mb temperatures only in the 3-6C range, will
only allow for low to mid 50s this afternoon. Light northerly
surface wind this morning will continue to veer to easterly during
the day, and southeast after sunset, as surface high pressure
makes eastward progress across the plains.

Tonight...Return SEly flow and associated warm/moist advection
will allow stratus to reestablish across SW KS through Monday
morning. Models are not keen on fog production Monday morning,
emphasizing just the stratus, so opted not to include areas of fog
in the weather grids through 6 am Monday. Minimum temperatures
Monday morning in the 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 120 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Still dry for the foreseeable future, with all grids dry through
next Sunday November 19th. Synoptic pattern 7 days out continues
to paint a dry picture for the plains, with a strong 507 dm polar
vortex in eastern Canada, and a stubborn 590 dm upper ridge over
the eastern Pacific. High confidence SW KS will not see
significant precipitation until this synoptic pattern breaks
down.

Still expecting stratus, fog and perhaps drizzle across the
eastern and SE zones Monday morning, as warm/moist advection
returns northward. Several degrees warmer Monday afternoon, with
50s east and 60s west.

Tuesday...The warmest day of the forecast period, with 850 mb
temperatures climbing well into the teens C. Stratus is expected
to continue to plague central Kansas through at least Tuesday
morning, with some of this probably impacting our eastern zones.
Afternoon highs ranging from the mid 60s NE to the mid 70s SW.

Dry cold front expected Tuesday night with gusty north winds.
Convection is still expected to develop along this advancing
boundary across eastern Kansas. A convective cell may approach our
eastern zones Tuesday night, but feel activity will remain
relegated to WFO Wichita`s area, and kept our grids dry. Cooler
on Wednesday, but not by much, in the 57-62 range.

Thursday...Warmer with increasing south winds, in response to a
strong longwave trough arriving in the Pacific NW. South to SE
wind gusts of 30-35 mph are expected, with highs well into the
60s.

Friday...Windy. The base of the Pacific trough races eastward,
crossing western Kansas during the day. This speed is far too fast
to allow for precipitation, but concern is increasing for high
wind and fire danger potential for Friday afternoon. 00z ECMWF
depicts an impressive surface low near Kansas City midday Friday,
along with 850 mb winds near 50 kts along the KS/OK border during
peak heating/mixing Friday. As such, wind gusts of 50-55 mph are
possible (especially south of Dodge City) Friday afternoon. Given
the persistent dry conditions, will need to monitor wildfire
potential closely. Again, incoming airmass behind the associated
cold front is Pacific in origin, so only expecting a few degrees
of cooling Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 542 AM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Widespread stratus with ceilings 010 to 020 gradually will erode
to a deck of sct-bkn stratocumulus 020-030 by 18z as weak
subsidence continues under a surface ridge of high pressure.
Local visibilities of less than a mile can be expected near the
west edge of the stratus in far western Kansas early today.
Abundant high level moisture from the tropical south Pacific will
spread across Kansas this evening, resulting in a broken deck of
cirriform clouds near 250.

A ridge of surface high pressure from the northern Plains into
eastern Colorado will progress slowly east and will extend from
Iowa into south central Kansas by evening. Low level south flow
will return to western Kansas late this afternoon, and low level
moisture will increase late tonight and Monday. Stratus with
ceilings at or below 010 will return to LBL and GCK around 10Z and
to DDC before 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  38  57  44 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  50  38  61  39 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  55  36  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  53  40  64  42 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  51  36  56  42 /   0   0   0   0
P28  55  38  54  47 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Ruthi
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Ruthi



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