Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 241723
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1223 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 852 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

WV Imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate an upper level
ridge of high pressure building northward across the Four Corners
Region enhancing a northwest flow aloft across the Western High
Plains. Near the surface, an area of high pressure is moving
eastward across eastern Kansas while a lee side trough of low
pressure is beginning to develop across eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

A ridge/trough pattern was strengthening over North America as a
strong upper low slowly moves through the northern Great Lakes
region and an upper level ridge builds over the west. The upper
ridge continues to build through tonight with upper level
northwesterly flow continuing over the central Plains. The axis of
surface high pressure extended from the Dakotas into western Kansas
early this morning. This will slowly move east today as the upper
level ridge builds. Weak return flow will develop today as the ridge
moves east. As the high pressure slowly weakens its grip on the
area, high temperatures this afternoon will be a little warmer
across western Kansas than on Sunday. Look for temperatures to climb
into the mid 80s most areas with upper 80s possible along the
Colorado border.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

Medium range models this morning are in pretty good agreement with
previous runs in showing the upper level ridge continuing to build
northward and eastward into the Plains states. This will bring a
continued warming trend to western Kansas through Wednesday. The
models are continuing to advertise an upper level disturbance
lifting out of the southern California/Baja region on Tuesday that
rides over the top of the upper ridge and then dropping southeast
across the northern and central High Plains Thursday into Thursday
night. The latest extended forecast initialization continues to
produce chance pops across western Kansas through that time period
which looks still looks reasonable for now. We should also see
somewhat cooler temperatures on Thursday as a cold front moves
through the area.

Through the remainder of the extended period, the models diverge
somewhat as the GFS shows a stronger upper ridge continuing across
the central and southern conus while the ECMWF is weaker. Both
models show another strong shortwave moving onshore into the Pacific
Northwest and move it into the northern Plains and southern Canada.
Timing of this wave is uncertain as the ECMWF is faster and weaker
compared to the GFS. While a lot of uncertainty exists, there could
be additional chances for thunderstorms across western Kansas
through the weekend into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Tuesday
morning. Southerly winds of 5 to 15kt will persist across western
Kansas through tonight as a lee side trough of low pressure remains
anchored across extreme eastern Colorado.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  60  89  65 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  86  60  91  65 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  88  63  94  66 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  87  63  92  67 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  85  57  90  64 /   0   0  10  10
P28  84  60  88  65 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...JJohnson


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