Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 241812
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1212 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

TONIGHT:

LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS INDICATED BY BOTH CORES OF THE WRF AS
A VORTMAX TRANSLATES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE 4 KM NAM IS DRIER AND THE OPERATIONAL NAM SHOWS NOTHING. GIVEN THE
TRACK RECORD OF THE NAM, WILL BIAS TOWARDS THE WRF AND THROW IN LOW
20 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PD. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY. OTHERWISE, INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE. WITH DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS,
ASSOCIATED MIXING, AND THE ABOVE MENTIONED CLOUDS, A "MILD" NIGHT IS
IN STORE WITH MINS IN THE MID 30S.

TOMORROW:

THE FORECAST CONUNDRUM FOR TOMORROW WAS TEMPERATURES. BOISE VERIFY
STILL SHOWS A COLD BIAS IN THE MODELS (AS IT WERE ON MY GRAVEYARD SHIFTS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO). FOR TOMORROW, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING WITH
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THINK WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE
REASONABLE AS RELATIVELY WARM AIR IS MIXED DOWN VIA THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ADIABATIC MIXING. THEREFORE,
INCREASE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES
TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. POPS WILL REMAIN AT ZERO
PERCENT. TOMORROW WILL BE ON THE BREEZE TO WINDY SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

A MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE WEST COAST THROUGH
FEBRUARY 3RD AND BEYOND WITH A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS IS A VERY DRY PATTERN FOR WESTERN KANSAS,
WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS EXPECTED UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE AND PROGRESS FROM WEST
OF BAJA ON JAN 28TH TO NEAR BAJA ON JAN 31ST AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO FEB 2ND, BUT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER IN WESTERN KANSAS.

AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY (HIGHS MAINLY 50S) AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE BACK
INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS DOWNSLOPE
LOW LEVEL FLOW (NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY)
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL COOL THE
HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH LOWS
FALLING FROM THE 30S INTO THE 20S BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY BY THE
WEEKEND, WITH A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO WESTERN
KANSAS, WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S OR 40S AND LOWS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD DUE TO A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
12-20 KT TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE 15-25 KT TOMORROW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  37  60  33 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  61  35  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  58  31  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  61  33  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  64  36  53  32 /  10  20   0   0
P28  64  38  57  32 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...FINCH
AVIATION...SUGDEN



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