Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 021705
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1105 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday evening)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

Precip chances pick up a little tonight as short range models indicate
further deepening of the upper level trough dipping southward into
northern Mexico, resulting in an increasingly difluent southwest flow
aloft across the Western High Plains. Although drier air in the lower
levels will remain locked in across the high plains, all short range
models show some increased moisture aloft from a subtropical plume
lifting northward across the South Plains. Even with the bulk of the
system remaining well to our south, a strong +100kt jet is projected
to lift northeastward into much of Kansas late tonight while a very
light easterly upslope flow prevails across the Western High Plains.
As a result, precip is expected to develop across the South Plains this
evening then spread northward, potentially affecting portions of southwest
and south central Kansas. Based on model sounding vertical profiles,
light rain is possible early with any precip likely switching over to
snow overnight. With weak QPF indicated and drier air prevalent in
the lower levels, any snow accumulations will be light at best.

Temperatures will remain fairly seasonal today with little change to
the drier air mass across the high plains. Look for highs up into the
40s(F) to the lower 50s(F) once again this afternoon. Expect lows back
down into the 20s(F) Friday night with a few 30s(F) possible across
south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1242 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

What little precip chances exist Saturday will shift eastward mainly
into central and eastern Kansas as the closed off upper level low
in northern Mexico begins to shift eastward as well. Meanwhile, an
upper level shortwave trough is projected to push eastward into the
Northern Plains Saturday night ushering an attendant cold front into
western Kansas by early Sunday morning. This will bring much drier
air into western Kansas to finish out the weekend and drawing a close
to any lingering precip chances across western Kansas through at least
Monday afternoon. The next chance for any appreciable precip will be
toward the middle part of next week as the GFS and ECMWF show a fairly
significant upper level trough of low pressure digging southeast across
the Pacific Northwest into the Central and Southern Rockies.

Chillier temperatures are likely Saturday as slightly colder air filters
into western Kansas. Considering overcast skies are forecast, highs
will struggle to reach the 40s(F) Saturday afternoon. Although little
change is expected to the air mass across the high plains Sunday,
decreasing clouds will allow temperatures to climb somewhat over
the day previous with highs pushing the lower 50s(F). Similar
highs can be expected Monday as a modest southerly flow sets up
across western Kansas drawing slightly warmer air northward into
the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Fri Dec 2 2016

The atmosphere will continue to moisten from the top down through the
pd. As a result, expect gradually decreasing cigs with IFR conditions
likely by tomorrow morning. Showers/snow showers will be possible as
well through the overnight pd. Winds will be fairly light 5-10 kt and
from the NE to E.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  28  40  27 /  10  50  30  20
GCK  47  27  39  23 /   0  30  20  10
EHA  45  24  38  22 /  20  40  30  10
LBL  48  28  40  25 /  20  50  40  10
HYS  46  28  41  26 /   0  20  20  10
P28  53  34  44  32 /  10  50  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Sugden


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