Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 230616 CCA
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1220 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Cold front clearing the SE zones early this morning, accompanied
by a few light showers and a NWly wind shift. Surface high
(1027 mb per 00z NAM) builds into the Colorado Rockies through
sunrise, ensuring a NW wind will continue overnight.

Tuesday...Mostly cloudy, windy and cool. Quite uncharacteristic of
late May in SW Kansas, with thunderstorm chances at zero and
temperatures running about 15 degrees below normal. Upper low in
northern Minnesota currently will drop due south into Iowa today,
enhancing the NW flow, at the surface and aloft, over SW KS.
Followed the strongest wind guidance, with NW wind gusts of
30-35 mph expected. All models also show broken/overcast mid layer
cloud decks near 7k ft through the afternoon. A few passing light
rain showers (sprinkles) are also likely. Between the clouds and
NWly cool advection, temperatures will struggle today into the
mid 60s. NW winds and limited sunshine will add a decided chill to
the air.

Tonight...Diminishing cloud cover and NW winds expected after
sunset, allowing for radiational cooling to become efficient
through Wednesday morning. Another chilly morning Wednesday, with
lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s (again about 15 degrees below
normal). Across the far NW and NE zones Wednesday morning,
included patchy frost in the grids where upper 30s are forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

The early part of the extended period will be dry with a warming
trend. An upper level ridge extending from Hudson`s Bay into the
northern Rockies Tuesday evening will build southward into the
central High Plains late Wednesday into early Thursday. At the
same time, another closed low is progged to move from the Gulf of
Alaska into south central Canada. A trough extending to the
southwest of the low will move into the northern Rockies and
result in increasingly zonal flow over the central High Plains in
the wake of the upper ridge. The resultant lowering of surface
pressure in the lee of the Rockies and increasing southerly flow
will pull higher dewpoints back into the central High Plains on
Thursday. A shortwave trough moving out over South Dakota and
Nebraska will push a cold front south into the central High Plains
Thursday afternoon with increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening with the front.
Precipitation chances along with near to below normal temperatures
will continue into the holiday weekend as the northern Rockies
trough gradually shifts toward the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Cold front, accompanied by weak convection, has cleared all of the
airports as of midnight. Modestly gusty NW winds will continue
through sunrise/12z Tuesday as 1027 mb surface high builds into
Colorado. Enhanced NWly gradient will be maintained on Tuesday, as
strong closed low sinks south into Iowa. Leaned toward the
strongest guidance regarding NW winds Tuesday, with gusts near
30 kts expected. All models in excellent agreement showing
broken/overcast cigs near 7k ft Tuesday afternoon, with some
passing sprinkles possible. Diminishing sky cover and diminishing
NW winds expected after 00z Wed.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  64  40  71 /  30  20  10   0
GCK  46  65  40  73 /  40  10   0   0
EHA  45  63  43  77 /  30  10   0   0
LBL  47  66  41  76 /  30  10   0   0
HYS  48  64  39  68 /  50  20  10   0
P28  51  67  45  71 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Turner



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