Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 110502
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1102 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

An arctic cold front situated over northern Nebraska will move
rapidly southeastward and arrive tonight as an upper level storm
system passes across western Kansas. Some light rain showers may
develop this evening along an initial cold front. The
precipitation will change to snow from northwest to southeast
between midnight and 4 am as the arctic front sweeps through.
There could be a brief period of freezing rain before the
changeover to snow. Also, initial melting of snow will refreeze
and could result in slick roads. This is a fast moving and
weakening system so heavy amounts of snow are not expected. Snow
amounts could reach as high as 1 to 2 inches in a few spots,
and with the expected 50 mph winds behind the cold front,
drifting and reduced visibilities at times can be expected. In
south central Kansas, rain is expected late tonight, which could
change to snow briefly before ending. The main concern here is any
freezing of the wet roads after the cold front passes, which
would lead to slick spots and hazardous driving. Therefore, a
winter weather advisory was expanded to include all of central and
western Kansas for snow, blowing snow and freezing rain. Winds
may come close to high wind warning criteria (sustained winds 40+
mph or gust to 58 mph) for a few hours and this is covered in the
winter weather advisory.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

Highs will moderate into the 30s and 40s for Friday. The next
acrtic front will result in a cooldown by Saturday with highs in
the 20s to mid 30s. After another brief warmup Sunday with highs
in the mid 40s to lower 50s, another arctic front will result in
highs in the 20s to lower 30s for Monday along with chances for
light snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

Not a good flight day for GA pilots. Conditions will rapidly deteriorate
through the overnight hours as an Arctic front slams southward across
the terminals. Rain and eventually a change over to snow is expected
in association with the front. Blowing snow will be likely on the backside
of the storm system as this feature eventually moves out to the east
by tomorrow. Winds in the wake of the front will be very strong with
30-40 kt winds expected, along with gusts to 50 kt. MVFR flight conditions
likely as the precipitation shield moves across, with isolated IFR
possible. Expect weather, winds, and overall flight conditions to improve
after the morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  19  32  13  38 /  80  50   0   0
GCK  20  34  13  42 /  90  10   0   0
EHA  23  41  21  55 /  90   0   0   0
LBL  21  38  16  47 /  90  10   0   0
HYS  17  26   9  31 /  80  70   0  10
P28  22  33  14  35 /  50  60   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM CST /7 AM MST/ Thursday for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>079-084>088.

Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Thursday for
KSZ066-080-081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Sugden



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