Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 122117
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
317 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018



.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

A weak shortwave trough was approaching western Kansas
this afternoon. Only a few flurries were occurring with little if
any accumulation. Arctic high pressure was located over the
plains, but low level downslope flow had eroded the cold air in
extreme southwestern Kansas around Elkhart. The cold air is
expected to stay in place through Saturday, with the coldest air
near Hays and downslope once again allowing readings to warm into
the 30s and 40s in far western Kansas. Lows tonight will be held
up by stratus that is expected to develop in a weak cold advection
regime, with mainly single digits and teens for lows. The coldest
readings will be around Hays where skies may clear toward morning.
If skies clear father south then mins could drop to the lower
single digits even as far south as Dodge City.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 242 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

A warm plume of air is expected to move into western Kansas
Sunday ahead of the next strong shortwave trough diving southward
out of Canada. Highs should reach into the 50s, then fall back
into the 20s for Monday as the next arctic high pressure system
moves southward from Canada. A few flurries may accompany the cold
air Sunday night into Monday, otherwise this should be a dry
pattern. Temperatures are expected to moderate by mid next week
as the upper level pattern deamplifies, surface pressures fall in
the lee of the Rockies and winds become southerly to westerly. A
strong upper level trough is progged to pass across the plains by
next weekend; but given the fast moving nature of the system,
precipitation chances are low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1202 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Cold surface high pressure will remain in place over western
Kansas through the period with light winds of 10 kts or less.
CIGS are expected to lower to MVFR tonight as weak warm advection
gives way to weak cold advection.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  10  27  16  53 /   0   0   0   0
GCK   9  31  17  55 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  13  45  24  54 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  11  35  18  55 /   0   0   0   0
HYS   5  20  14  47 /  10   0  10   0
P28  10  24  16  47 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch



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