Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 180923
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
423 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

High pressure will slide east from the Northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest today, slowly increasing the surface pressure
gradient across western Kansas by late afternoon and this
evening. There will be a surface response of increased dew points
and weak above surface boundary layer moisture advection. The WRF
forecast sounding, as well as the HRRR/RAP13/and HiRes ARW/NMM
all show an area of 2-4kft clouds moving through, beginning at
around noon Liberal area and exiting well before sunset from the
eastern counties. As dew points in the 50s area advect through
the area through the overnight, the surface winds will probably
keep the boundary layer well mixed enough to prevent radiation fog
development, or at least becoming widespread and dense. However
the WRF indicates a narrow band of half mile visibility fog
between around 10z and 13 Z early Sunday morning along the
leading edge of the enhanced surface dew points.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

A couple of waves are indicated in the extended by the GFS/ECMWF
models. The first is a very subtle weak differential vorticity max
that moves through Tuesday night, with a chance for cold rain
showers overnight. The second wave is much stronger forcing by
Thursday night. Pattern suggest a quick round of thunderstorms with
relatively shallow moisture probably limiting overall instability
and severe potential. However a wider range of precipitation
probabilities are in the forecast given model uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 102 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Broad surface high pressure extending from the Northern Plains
into Oklahoma will again influence our weather. Light easterly
winds tonight will gradually shift to southerly, and increasing
to the mid teens (knots) with marginal gusts by around noon today.
The WRF forecast sounding shows a shallow layer saturating
briefly by mid afternoon, but any clouds developing from such a
feature appears to be in the 2000+ ft range, well above IFR
thresholds.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Elevated fire risk is the main theme through much of the week. Sunday
will be exceptionally hot, with very low relative humidity over the
western half of the area in the afternoon...but the most recent
model runs are showing better influence from the broad high pressure
...thus winds will probably be nowhere near true red flag
crition.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  52  91  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  76  49  91  46 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  78  51  90  49 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  76  51  92  46 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  72  48  87  46 /   0   0   0   0
P28  73  52  91  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
FIRE WEATHER...Russell



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