Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 151525
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
925 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A CLOSED OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE,
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A STRONG SURFACE LOW IS LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI SETTING UP A
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE COMPACT, VERY INTENSE MID LEVEL
CYCLONE WAS SPINNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND CONTINUED TO PULL
AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST KANSAS REGION. AS OF 0900 UTC, EVERYONE IN
THE DODGE CITY FORECAST AREA FROM ELKHART SYRACUSE TO HAYS TO
MEDICINE LODGE (AND ALL POINTS BETWEEN) WAS SEEING STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THE LAST
OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WERE ALSO SLOWLY PULLING AWAY FROM HAYS,
LACROSSE, AND SAINT JOHN. FOR THE DAY MONDAY, STRONG WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN STORY. A TIGHT GRADIENT FROM 900 TO 700MB WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ALL DAY. MIXING SHOULD BE FAIRLY DECENT GIVEN THE UNIFORM
HEIGHT CONTOURS LEADING TO UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IN THIS LAYER. MEAN
WIND SPEED IN THE MIXED LAYER UP TO 825MB SUPPORTS SURFACE WINDS OF
26 TO 28 KNOTS SUSTAINED FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
PEAK GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY
WAS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO FIT LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE GIVEN
FAIRLY STRONG COLD ADVECTION. WE SHOULD SEE THE LOW CLOUD COVER
SLOWLY SCATTER OUT AROUND LATE MORNING (EARLIER IN THE WEST). EXPECT
THE NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH DIMINISHED TO SPEEDS OF 15 TO 18 KNOTS ON AVERAGE. WINDS
WILL DECREASE FURTHER AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO RELAX AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NOSES DOWN THE
HIGH PLAINS. THE DECREASING WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
ALLOW FAR WESTERN KANSAS TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO 17-20F FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

TUESDAY:

SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ON TUESDAY.
AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS KANSAS. A DRY FORECAST IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. IT WILL BE LESS WINDY THAN COMPARED
TO MONDAY AS WELL. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S HEADING IN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY:

THERE COULD BE A FEW WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING, BUT KEPT POPS LOW AS THE MAIN WAVE
IS STILL BACK TO THE WEST. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH 40S AND
50S. LOWS IN THE 20S AGAIN.

AND THE REST:

CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME IN REGARDS
TO THE NEXT SYNOPTIC WAVE PASSING ACROSS KANSAS WITH POTENTIAL RESULTANT
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS. THE 40 KM GFS SHOWS A WINTER STORM ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE 13 KM GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH LIKE
THE ECMWF. CAN SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE WAA STRATUS OR POSSIBLY
DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THURSDAY NORTH OF THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY.
THE SUPERBLEND POPS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THURSDAY, WHICH MAKES SENSE
IF THE TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH. BASICALLY, THE NEXT WAVE MIGHT
NOT MEAN THAT MUCH TO THE REGION IF THE LOW TRACKS SOUTH AS DESCRIBED
BY THE TWO ABOVE MENTIONED NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION OUTPUT SOLUTIONS.
STAY TUNED. SUPERBLEND TEMPS LIKE FINE AT THIS POINT IN TIME FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD AND ARE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

CIGS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY TO EVENTUALLY VFR. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS 20-30 KT WILL DECREASE BY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  41  23  40  25 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  40  19  40  24 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  43  23  45  29 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  45  22  43  29 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  38  21  38  21 /  20   0   0   0
P28  45  25  42  24 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...SUGDEN


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