Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 181650
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1150 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Light and variable surface winds are forecast today as the area
remains between a large area of high pressure across the eastern
U.S. and a weak surface trough near the Front Range. NAM/WRF model
showing a warmer 850 mb air overspreading far sw KS today
accountable for models forecasting a slightly warmer high today in
the low 80s. This still should be pleasant warm fall weather with
dew points remaining in the low 40s west and northwest to near 50 in
south central Kansas.  Clear conditions should continue into the
overnight with light northeast surface winds. Overnight lows are
forecast relatively mild in the mid 40s most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Thursday brings an increase in the surface pressure gradient,
enough to change surface winds to southeast around 10-15 knots
with gust potential in the well mixed BL during afternoon. By
late in the day and Thursday night, a significant moisture surge
will increase surface dewpoints into the upper 50s. Both the NAM
and ECMWF show a 500 mb vorticity field shortwave lifting out of
New Mexico into central Kansas by noon Friday. This should account
for scattered showers and general non severe thunderstorms given
an overall lack of strong instability. Probabilities from model
consensus for our area is quite low. More of a chance for wetting
rains associated with thunderstorms is found across the southeast
sections (Stafford- Comanche-Pratt-Medicine Lodge) as a Pacific
cold front invades the area Saturday. Mild lows are forecast
Saturday morning, with cooler high temperatures for the weekend
and beyond, still near normal for mid October.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

VFR and great flying conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Wind will stay below 10 knots until tomorrow afternoon, with
periods of near calm wind this afternoon as a weak trough axis
moves through Southwest Kansas. Skies will remain mostly clear due
to a few high clouds flowing in from Colorado.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Although conditions will become more windy by the end of the week
into Saturday, there will also be a significant increase in moisture
flux Friday, which should act to limit the fire weather risk by
keeping afternoon minimum relative humidity high.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  85  47  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  82  45  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  83  46  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  84  48  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  81  45  79  58 /   0   0   0   0
P28  81  49  78  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Reynolds
FIRE WEATHER...Russell



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