Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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803
FXUS63 KDDC 161905
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
205 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

ABBREVIATED SHORT TERM WITH MET WATCH. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
CONCERNING THE NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS OKLAHOMA
HAS BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY, SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE BASICALLY SE OF A LINE FROM ASHLAND TO ST JOHN.
THE NEXT AREA OF CONCERN IS OUT WEST. BUBBLING CUMULUS HAS BEEN
NOTED ON VIS SAT. TOOK A BLEND OF THE HRRR AND WRF-ARW FOR POP
ARRANGEMENTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. WE LAUNCHED AN 18Z RAOB, WHICH
LOOKS FAR FROM SPECTACULAR. FIRST, INSTABILITY IS OBVIOUSLY VERY
LIMITED WITH ALL LINGERING CLOUD COVER. SECOND, 850-HPA WINDS ARE
VERY WEAK. IN FACT, THE ENTIRE LOW LEVELS ARE WEAK, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS DECENT VEERING. THIRDLY, UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BACKED.
TRANSLATION: MESSY HP SUPERCELLS. SO THE SITUATION HAS CHANGED A
BIT FROM PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PROBABLY HAVE DELETERIOUS IMPACTS TO STORM INTENSITY. RAP
ANALYSIS DOES SHOW CAPE INCREASING OUT WEST. STILL THINK WE WILL
STILL SEE SEVERE. THINK TORNADO POTENTIAL IS NOT AS HIGH AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGH. THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR TO GET ROTATING STORMS
THOUGH AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHAT IS
IN QUESTION IS IF THE TORNADOES WILL BE STRONG OR NOT. HAVE SEEN
AN UPTICK ON UPDRAFT HELICITY RECENTLY, SO SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
FROM THE 18Z RAOB, IT WILL TAKE QUITE THE ATMOSPHERIC TURN OVER
TO GET IT PRIMED FOR STRONG TORNADOES WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS THIS EVENING WILL STRENGTHEN
AND THE TORNADO POTENTIAL COULD GO UP. BUT BY THAT TIME, THE
STORMS COULD BE OUTFLOWY, PRECIPITATION LADEN MESSY STORMS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MESOSCALE SITUATION AND ADJUST AS
NECESSARY. STORMS WILL BE MOVING AT A GOOD CLIP TOO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE
WITH AMPLIFICATION RESULTING FROM TROPICAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE
WESTERN PACIFIC. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND THE
ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS ACTIVELY GROWING
VEGETATION AND WET SOILS WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES.

THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES WILL ALLOW SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY. WITH THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH, THE MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR SHOULD BE MOVING BACK NORTHWEST INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT BY TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
YET ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND WITH
ADDITIONAL PCPN EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

CIGS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY VFR. CANNOT RULE OUT TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH +TSRA. THIS
WILL BE LOCALIZED AND NOT THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CB/VCTS GROUPS FOR KHYS AND KGCK AND USE A TEMPO
GROUP FOR KDDC FOR STORMS THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KT
TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY 10-15 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  82  49  70 /  70   0   0  10
GCK  50  80  47  69 /  60   0   0   0
EHA  48  79  47  69 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  50  81  50  73 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  53  80  48  67 /  80   0   0   0
P28  56  83  54  76 /  80   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...HUTTON
AVIATION...SUGDEN



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