000
FXUS63 KDDC 150726
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
226 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE REPLACED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING NORTH FROM NEW MEXICO
TODAY.  THIS UPPER LOW IS MOVING RATHER SLOWLY AND WILL LIKELY
ONLY BE OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY 16/00Z, OR THIS EVENING.  THIS
SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME UPPER LEVEL LIFT OVER OUR
EASTERN ZONES, BUT THE LOW LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WEAK.  THEREFORE,
THERE WILL BE 20 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN OUR EASTERN FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS THIS EVENING, AND THOSE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MIGRATE TO THE NORTHERN CWA NORTH OF I-70
TONIGHT.  LOOKING AT THE INSTABILITY AS FORECAST BY THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, THERE WILL ONLY BE 600-800 J/KG CAPE, WITH LITTLE WIND
SHEAR, SO I DO NOT EXPECT ANY STORMS TO BE SEVERE. THERE MAY BE
SOME HAIL IN ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS, BUT MAX HAIL SIZE WILL
BE NICKEL SIZE AT THE BIGGEST.  DOWNBURST WINDS COULD BE MORE
SIGNIFICANT THAN THE HAIL, AS MID LEVEL JET OVER KANSAS SHOWS 40
TO 50 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE.
AS A MATTER OF FACT, THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DO NOT BRING ANY
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO OUR CWA TODAY OR TONIGHT.  THE NAM MODEL
DOES, HOWEVER, BRINGS A LITTLE PRECIP INTO OUR WEST AND NORTHERN
AREAS.  THERE IS STILL SOME WARM AIR AROUND, WITH THE 15/00Z 850MB
CHART ANALYSIS SHOWING +26C DEGREE AIR TOUCHING OUR EXTREME WEST
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER, AND +21C ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST CWA NEAR
BARBER COUNTY. THEREFORE, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS
HIGH AS THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST TWO DAYS, BUT STILL IN THE MID
80S IN BARBER AND PRATT COUNTIES, THE UPPER 80S FROM HAYS TO DODGE
CITY TO ASHLAND, AND AROUND 90F IN THE WEST INCLUDING GARDEN CITY,
LIBERAL AND SYRACUSE AREAS. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BECOME BROKEN IN
THE MID LAYERS THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.

CLOUDS WILL THEN SCATTER OUT TONIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM
THE EAST.  SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS STATED
ABOVE IN THE HAYS AND WAKEENEY AREA, UNTIL JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED REASONABLE,
AND ARE VERY NEAR THE NEIGHBORING WFO`S FORECAST MIN TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

PRECIPITATION CHANCES, SEVERITY, AND COVERAGE WILL BE CHALLENGES IN
THE FORECAST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WITH DRYLINE POSITION UNCERTAINTY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH (CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
SPINNING ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA) WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  A WEAK FRONT MOVING
INTO EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO AND WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS FRONT WILL
DISSOLVE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL...LOOSELY ORGANIZED AREA OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS IT
APPROACHES FAR WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS VERY
LOW AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. ON
THURSDAY...THERE IS A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT ON THE 850MB
THERMODYNAMICS/MOISTURE BETWEEN THE NCEP MODELS AND THE ECMWF MODEL.
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND NEAR-SATURATED
RH AT 850MB THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY WHICH IS AFFECTING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES TO THE POINT THAT THE NCEP MODELS KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE NCEP MODELS TEND TO
BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE IN HOLDING ONTO STRATUS TOO LONG SO THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REFLECT MORE CLOSELY THE
ECMWF MODEL.

A DRYLINE WILL NO DOUBT BE A PREVAILING FEATURE, HOWEVER, WHICH
SHOULD FOCUS A FEW ISOLATED STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH AIDING IN SOME
SLIGHT MID LEVEL COOLING AND OVERALL SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.  MID LEVEL FLOW AT THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH AXIS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS (500MB) ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SHEAR ALONG WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW FOR SUPERCELL STORMS (ALONG WITH THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE).  ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY
EVENING SHOULD DISSOLVE AFTER SUNSET AS INSOLATION GOES AWAY AND THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
A MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE PACIFIC JET WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWEST/GREAT
BASIN REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ENTERING THE ROCKIES AND
WESTERN PLAINS SATURDAY. THE DRYLINE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH OF THESE DAYS...BUT SATURDAY WILL BE THE BETTER
DAY OF THE TWO FOR MORE ORGANIZED SUPERCELL STORMS GIVEN THE GREATER
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE NEAR AND JUST SOUTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS NORTH OF A DIGHTON TO
LACROSSE LINE WHERE THE FORECAST SURFACE LOW WILL BE PER THE ECMWF
MODEL. SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW...HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FOUND OVER A LARGER AREA THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH SOME UPPER
90S EVEN POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND:
THE INITIAL JET STREAK WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LEADING TO THE FORMATION OF AN UPPER LOW...HOWEVER AN ENERGETIC JET
WILL STILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WHICH COULD LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE INCLUDED THROUGH THE ALLBLEND
GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY GIVEN THE PROSPECTS OF SOME POTENTIAL
POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION ROLLING EAST OFF THE EASTERN COLORADO
TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSURE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THIS MORNING, BUT THEY WILL CHANGE TO SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNRISE, AND
THEN TO EASTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHERN KANSAS, AND HELP PULL DOWN A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY RESULT IN THE BKN080-120 RANGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  60  86  64 /  20  20  10  20
GCK  91  59  88  62 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  89  58  92  60 /  10  10  20  20
LBL  90  60  92  61 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  89  60  83  64 /  20  20  10  20
P28  85  63  84  65 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SUGDEN
SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...BURKE