Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 191700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE PLAINS FOR
SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST TODAY.  SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES UP FROM YESTERDAY`S LEVELS BY
ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO. THERE WILL BE SOME MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND
THIS MORNING, BUT IT SHOULD DIMINISH BY NOON OR SO, ALLOWING FOR
A NICE WARM UP. THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD
SEE THE WARMEST MAX TEMPERATURES, RANGING IN THE UPPER 70S. THE
HAYS AREA IN OUR NORTHEAST WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN
THE MIDDLE 70S. WINDS TODAY WILL START OUT FROM THE SOUTH AROUND
10 MPH, BUT INCREASE QUICKLY INTO FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH
GUSTING TO 25 MPH BUY 14 TO 15Z, AS A SURFACE TROUGH ADVANCES EAST
FROM COLORADO.

AS FOR TONIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED SOMEWHAT BY
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSING THROUGH TO OUR NORTH.  THE ECMWF MODEL
SHOWS JUST A SLIVER OF LIGHT RAIN GLANCING OUR SOUTHERN MOST
COUNTIES.  THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS OF THE RAP, NAM, AND NMM AND ARW
MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP, AND THUS I HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE
FORECAST.  SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. THUS, I AM EXPECTING MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 40S IN THE SCOTT
CITY AND SYRACUSE AREAS, AROUND 50F DEGREES FROM LIBERAL TO DODGE CITY
TO LARNED, AND THE LOWER 50S IN THE COLDWATER, PRATT AND MEDICINE
LODGE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SUPPRESSING ANY ACTIVITY FROM FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY DRY LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS
BY TUESDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE FELT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO REACH INTO THE MID 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TUESDAY MORNING AND LOWER 50S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGING ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO BE OBSERVED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CONFINED TO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY SHIFTING TO MORE
OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. LOWS BY SUNRISE THURSDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO MID 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PD. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY 15-22 KT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE DOWN TO 6-12 KT BY 00Z. A SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  77  50  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  77  47  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  78  50  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  78  49  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  74  48  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
P28  76  52  76  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...SUGDEN


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