Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 250724

224 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2014

...Updated long term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

A wedge of warm 850mb to 700mb temperatures that was located just
south of a surface boundary which extended from the Oklahoma
panhandle to northeast Kansas at 00z Monday will lift north today
and by 00z Tuesday this warm air will be located across most of
western and south central Kansas. Based on the the forecast mixing
height and the 00z Tuesday temperatures in the 850mb to 700mb
level from the NAM and GFS it will be another day with highs in
the upper 90s to near 100 degrees across most of western and south
central Kansas.

In addition to the warming temperatures 700mb moisture will also
be improving across central and north central Kansas which may
give rise to some afternoon convection as CAPE values increase to
1000 to 2000 j/kg, especially across northern Kansas. At this time
it appears the better forcing and instability late today along
with the better low level moisture will be near/north the surface
boundary in north central Kansas so will focus late day convection
around and north of the interstate 70 corridor with more widely
scattered storms being possible further south.

Tonight warm air advection and moisture advection improves near
the nose of a developing low level jet. This will be just north of
a surface boundary that will remain nearly stationary early
tonight across west central and north central Kansas. At the same
time an upper level trough is forecast to cross northwest Kansas.
As a result will increase the chances for convection across west
central and north central Kansas, especially north of where the
+12c to +14c 700mb temperature gradient is forecast to be located
by the NAM and GFS at 06z and 12z Tuesday. Preciptable water
values Monday night are forecast to range from 1.5 to 1.75 across
northern Kansas so some storms tonight may produce periods of
heavy rainfall. Also am unable to rule out the chance for some
storms becoming severe Monday evening north of the interstate 70
corridor base on 0-6km shear of 30 to 40 knots and CAPE values
ranging from 1500 to near 3000 j/kg at 00z Tuesday from the NAM
and GFS. Main hazard at this time appears to be quarter size hail
and wind gusts of 60 mph or greater.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

An upper level low will trek from the Pacific northwest Monday to
the Central Plains by Friday before exiting the area this weekend.
Mid to upper levels of the atmosphere will saturate as this system
approaches bringing increasing cloudiness to western Kansas. Towards
the surface, a frontal boundary is expected to be positioned across
west central Kansas Tuesday before lifting northward to northern
Kansas and Nebraska Wednesday into Thursday. This frontal boundary
will be the main focal point where thunderstorms are expected to
develop. There could also be storms developing along the higher
terrain across eastern Colorado before moving into western Kansas
later on. A cold front is then progged to move through the area
Thursday with wrap around moisture in place Friday. Thunderstorm
chances envelop the CWA Wednesday night through Friday before
tapering off Friday night. A drier pattern then sits up for this
weekend with partly cloudy skies expected. As for temperatures,
highs will start out in the 90s Tuesday and Wednesday before cooling
off into the 80s Thursday through Saturday. Highs Sunday look to top
out in the lower 90s. Lows are forecasted to range from the mid 60s
across west central Kansas to lower 70s across south central Kansas
Tuesday through Thursday morning before cooling off into the 60s
Friday into this weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)

A weak surface boundary will lift north across western Kansas
overnight. As this boundary moves into west central and north
central Kansas the surface winds will become south southeast at
around 10 knots by 12z Monday. Based on 03z verification from the
NAM and HRRR will stay close to these models on timing of the wind
shift overnight. Southerly winds will increase to around 15 knots
by the early afternoon. BUFR soundings indicating VRF conditions
will prevail overnight and Monday as moisture around the 700mb
level improves during the Day on Monday. Late day instability and
forcing across north central Kansas may also give rise to some
scattered evening convection but given the scatters nature of the
storms late Monday will not include mention of thunderstorms yet
in the Hays 06z tafs.


DDC  98  69  96  69 /  20  20  30  30
GCK  98  67  94  67 /  20  30  40  40
EHA  96  67  93  67 /  20  20  40  30
LBL  98  69  96  69 /  20  20  30  30
HYS  98  68  94  68 /  30  70  50  50
P28 100  73  99  74 /  10  20  20  20




SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.