Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 140543
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1143 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

With a low persisting in eastern Colorado, lee troughing aided in
gusty south/southwest wind once again today, along with beginning
a strong warming trend for the next few days. Tonight, low
temperatures will be roughly 7-10 degrees warmer than last night,
reaching the upper 30s near the Oklahoma border, to upper 20s to
toward northern Kansas. High temperatures were bumped up for
Valentine`s Day. The ECMWF has 850 temperatures over far
southwestern Kansas at 18 degrees C. With mixing, an extremely dry
ground and downslope flow dominating tomorrow, highs near Elkhart
will be upwards of 80 degrees, with most of the area seeing highs
in the 70s. Wind on Wednesday will be breezy enough, and relative
humidity low enough, that fire weather will be a concern
Wednesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Upper level flow becomes quasi-zonal on Wednesday ahead of an
approaching trough. The surface low in eastern Colorado will
finally move southeast on Thursday, causing a cold front to move
through southwest Kansas on late Thursday afternoon. Despite the
cool Arctic air moving in, broad westerly flow will allow high
temperatures on Thursday to reach into the 70s near the Oklahoma
border.

The cooler Arctic high moving on Thursday night in will push a
baroclinic zone through the region. Without good moisture, we`ll
only see strong winds in our region behind the front with
a rising and strong pressure gradient. Went with a consmos
solution on winds, raising wind in our areas at 20-25 sustained,
gusting to 35 through roughly 6am Friday. Despite the Arctic
high, temperatures remain above freezing on Friday, thanks to the
high moving east during the day, causing southerly flow by the
evening.

Saturday, warm air advection starts the day, but a cold front
moves through in the afternoon. This is curtailed by warm air
advection Sunday morning. Another cold front moves through
Monday.

Despite all of this, Southwest Kansas will remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

A rather low impact aviation forecast through Wednesday Night with
mainly high clouds around and VFR flight category prevailing. Wind
direction will be mainly out of the southwest through the period,
with strongest winds in the 12 to 15 knot range at LBL during the
afternoon. GCK, DDC, and HYS terminals will not have very strong
winds today, topping out in the 10 to 12 knot range for the most
part.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  34  77  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  33  75  40  66 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  37  79  44  69 /   0   0  10   0
LBL  36  79  45  72 /   0   0  10   0
HYS  27  70  38  59 /   0   0   0   0
P28  34  78  49  75 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reynolds
LONG TERM...Reynolds
AVIATION...Umscheid



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