Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 270912
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
312 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSIONS...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE 00Z 500 MILLIBAR ANALYSIS SHOWED A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW
PATTERN OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDED FROM
SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA WHILE A DEEP TROUGH WAS OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH. FARTHER WEST, A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
CALIFORNIA. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WAS NOTED OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT AS THE CALIFORNIA
UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND PHASES WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING BRITISH COLUMBIA. ONE MORE WARM DAY IS
IN STORE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. WARM TEMPERATURES OFF THE
SURFACE WILL MIX DOWN AS DAYTIME HEATING INCREASES. 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 3-4 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS AFTERNOON THAN
MONDAY. WE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE AREA AND I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS
REACH 80 DEGREES. WINDS WILL START OUT FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE WEST
BUT SHOULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS A
LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S.
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD SEE LOWER 40S AS SOUTHERLY WINDS STAY UP
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

BREEZY COLD ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER INFLUENCE
FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING, FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BASED ON THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY COULD HAVE MAJOR
IMPACTS ON HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
INITIAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY PROVIDE AS MUCH DOWNSLOPE WARMING AS
TO OFFSET ANY STRONG COOLING TENDENCY DURING THEY DAY, AS THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF THE MID 60S`S IN
MOST CASES, INCLUDING THE CONSENSUS OF MOS. HOWEVER, A PRONOUNCED
COOL DOWN  WILL IMMEDIATELY BE FELT BY THURSDAY WHERE DAYTIME
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES APPEAR STILL AROUND A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW A STRONG WAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SOUTHERN STREAM JET,
DRIVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES. ONCE THIS JET
EXIST THE REGION TO THE SOUTH, A BRIEF 24 HOUR PERIOD OF MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FOR DRY, PERHAPS
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER
ARRIVES. MID LEVEL QG FRONTOGENESIS PRECEDED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT IS LIKELY BY LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING.
AS THE COLUMN SLOWLY SATURATES, THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN, AND TURN TO SNOW AT SOME POINT IN THE
TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE. LITTLE MORE DETAILS CAN BE GLEANED AT THIS
POINT GIVEN THIS IS A DAY 6 SYSTEM, HOWEVER ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN GAINED TO INCREASE POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES THE
COOLING TREND, WITH HIGH POSSIBLY AS COLD AS BELOW FREEZING AGAIN
BY THE BACK PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND COULD BE
GUSTY TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE
CITY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ANOTHER DAY OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS FALLING TO AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT OVER
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 MPH. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  40  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  76  38  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  73  40  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  75  39  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  77  39  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
P28  74  43  72  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GERARD
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD
FIRE WEATHER...GERARD



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