Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDDC 300500
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Rain showers along with a few embedded rumbles of thunder will
taper off from southwest to northeast overnight as a negatively
tilted upper level trough crosses western Kansas and isentropic
down glide develops in the I295 and I305 levels. Before this
precipitation ends the potential still exists for brief periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall this evening...mainly in north central
Kansas.

Unable to disagree with previous forecast for chilly overnight
lows tonight, especially west of a Dighton to Liberal line. Lows
are expected to fall back to around 35 in this area.

On Saturday ongoing precipitation will continue across north
central Kansas as an upper low will slowly move from northwest
Kansas into Nebraska. Based on the cool 900mb to 850mb
temperatures Saturday afternoon along with clouds will trend
towards undercutting guidance for highs Saturday. Highs in the 50
to 55 degree range appears reasonable in west central and north
central Kansas. Highs in the lower 60s will be possible in south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

On Sunday the focus will shift to the next upper level low which
will be located near the four corners region on Sunday afternoon.
As this next system approaches Sunday night through early next
week the chance for precipitation will once again be on the
increase across southwestern Kansas. Given the latest trend and
track of this next feature from the GFS and ECMWF the better
opportunity for precipitation in western Kansas will be late
Sunday night into early Monday. Temperatures will stay on the cool
side from Sunday and Monday given the cloud cover and 900mb
temperature trends from the GFS.

Warmer temperatures are then expected to return mid to late week
as the next system exits the central plains and an upper level
ridge axis begins to build across the central Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2016

Gradually improving flying conditions expected through Saturday.
IFR/MVFR stratus cigs will persist through about sunrise, as
closed cyclonic ciculation moves to near HYS. Cigs will gradually
improve to VFR at DDC/GCK this afternoon with broken
stratocumulus persisting. MVFR cigs will persist longer near HYS
nearest the low`s circulation. A few wraparound -SHRA are possible
near HYS this afternoon, warranting a VCSH mention, otherwise
airports will be dry. After 15z Sat, NW surface winds gusty at
15-25 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  56  39  55 /  80  10  10  20
GCK  37  52  38  52 /  80  10  10  30
EHA  34  55  36  52 /  20  10  10  40
LBL  36  58  38  55 /  50  10  10  30
HYS  40  53  41  53 / 100  30  20  20
P28  44  64  44  61 /  70   0   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.