Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 230618
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
118 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

...updated discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

The general concern today is with pops. The evening thunderstorm complex
is moving out of the forecast district early this morning. There is
some spotty showers farther to the southwest. As a result, have broadbrushed
the area with slight pops. For this afternoon, some of the CAMs are
dry. This makes sense as there is some subsidence in the wake of a
departing synoptic trof across the Northern Plains. High pressure will
build in as well through the day. As a result, have lowered pops considerably
and kept towards a drier solution. There might be a few showers/thunderstorms
in the northwest zones this afternoon, but confidence is not high.
Low end slight pops look reasonable for now. Severe weather is not
expected as both instability and shear are very marginal. Lightning
would be the main threat. Otherwise, enjoy todays highs, which are
expected to be in the pleasant 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 123 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Pleasant weather will continue through the weekend with 70s and 80s
for highs. There maybe a slight chance of storms Sunday in the northwest
flow aloft pattern and some lower BL moisture forecast. The slight
to low end chance pops look reasonable for now. A broad ridge will
start to influence our weather by the beginning of the upcoming business
week and temperatures will trend to the hot/normal side. By mid week,
increasing BL moisture and a pattern more conducive for MCS activity
might evolve with higher probabilities of thunderstorms. Towards the
end of the long term domain, temps will be well in the 90s a few storms
possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

VFR is expected through TAF pd. There will be some high end VFR to mid
level clouds, but don`t think we will see any further reductions to
MVFR. TSRA will impact KHYS early this morning. Mainly -tsra free for
the other terminals today as high pressure builds in from the north.
Winds will start NE 15-25 kt and then decrease 5-15 kt as the high
builds into the greater region.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  77  57  80 /  70  20   0   0
GCK  60  75  55  79 /  70  20  10  10
EHA  60  74  57  78 /  60  20  10  10
LBL  64  76  58  79 /  60  20  10  10
HYS  63  77  54  79 /  80  20   0  10
P28  69  82  58  82 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden


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