Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 232041
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
341 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

MURPHY`S LAW IS IN EFFECT THIS EVENING. MORE IMPORTANTLY, TODAY ILLUSTRATES
HOW FICKLE MESOSCALE METEOROLOGY IS. THE WARM FRONT WITH ALL THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS HAS BARELY MOVED NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL. THE
NET RESULT IS THAT INSTABILITY IS NON-EXISTENT RIGHT NOW. HAVE SERIOUS
DOUBTS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM. I HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE EASTERN ZONES JUST IN CASE THE 4 KM NAM IS CORRECT. AGAIN, IT WOULD
TAKE SOME SERIOUS AIR MASS MODIFICATION IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME FOR
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY MORE CONDUCIVE METEOROLOGY
AFTER DARK AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. OTHER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
WHAT I AM NOW THINKING... WE WON`T SEE SQUAT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
HAIL ARE BECOMING VERY UNLIKELY AS WELL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE 70S. IT WILL BE WINDY AND DEWPOINTS
WILL MIX OUT. HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE REGION AS A RESULT
AS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE VERY LIKELY. DO NOT BURN TOMORROW.
OTHER THAN TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, POPS WILL TREND TO ZERO
PERCENT BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAYBE SOME DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING,
BUT THIS ISN`T IN THE FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONING
EASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY SENDING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. HOWEVER, A FAIRLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A LACK OF
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND LITTLE INSTABILITY PRESENT WILL RESULT
IN GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT IS PROJECTED TO
PUSH ASHORE OFF THE PACIFIC THURSDAY SETTING UP A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR PRECIP
MAY PICK UP A LITTLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN H5 VORT MAXIMA TRACKS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER, LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT BEST LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES TO A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SNOW MIX LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.

COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. COLDER AIR FILTERING DOWN
INTO THE AREA WILL LOWER H85 TEMPERATURES FROM THE TEENS(C) THE DAY
PREVIOUS WELL DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS(C) BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY UP INTO THE 60S(F) WITH A FEW UPPER 50S(F)
POSSIBLE NEAR THE I-7O CORRIDOR AND NEAR 70F POSSIBLE IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS
ONLY UP INTO THE 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES TO HELP EDGE THE
COOLER AIR MASS FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. NEAR 60F IS
STILL POSSIBLE IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE AIR
MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS UNDERGOING LITTLE CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2015

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20
KT IN ITS WAKE. IT IS UNCLEAR IF CONVECTION WILL FORM, SO LEFT THAT
OUT OF THE TAF. A FROPA EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH WINDS VEERING
NORTHWESTERLY 10-25 KT. VFR CIGS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  73  39  65 /  20  10   0  10
GCK  41  71  36  64 /  10  10   0  10
EHA  41  72  41  64 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  43  73  38  67 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  42  72  38  62 /  40  20   0  10
P28  48  75  42  68 /  20  10   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
TUESDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...SUGDEN



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