Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 242204
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
504 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH TOMORROW. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE CROSSING OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
FOR STORMS WILL OCCUR IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES WILL BE AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SURFACE CAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. STORMS THAT FORM WILL MOVE DOWN INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS AND MAY CLIP THE AREA AROUND ELLIS COUNTY.
CONDITIONS ARE MUCH LESS FAVORABLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST WITH SHEAR
VALUES OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND VERY LITTLE CAPE. ADDITIONAL
STORMS MAY FIRE UP IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO, BUT WILL LIKELY STAY
SUBSEVERE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THE HEAT WILL BE THE HEADLINE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH HEAT INDICES
RISING UPWARDS OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS THE DODGE CITY AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY. THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE SEEN IN BARBER COUNTY
WHERE DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND
10-15 MPH AND THE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHWEST TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY THE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS WILL SEE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS BRINGING A CHANCE
OF RAIN AND STORMS INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE A
STRONGER WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS MOST OF
WESTERN KANSAS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOT BE AS STRONG SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THE THREAT FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE MORE INTO
NORTHERN KANSAS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF
NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH VALUES OF AROUND 100 EXPECTED EVERY DAY BEFORE A WEEK
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A
CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND
10-15 MPH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AROUND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 459 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS A LARGE RIDGE OF WARM HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR HAYS AFTER 06-09Z WITH SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73 100  72  99 /  20  30  40  30
GCK  71  99  70  97 /  20  40  40  40
EHA  71  99  71  97 /  30  30  30  30
LBL  72 101  72  98 /  20  30  30  30
HYS  73  98  73  98 /  40  30  40  20
P28  75 102  75 100 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ031-046-065-066-
081-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WHITE
LONG TERM...WHITE
AVIATION...KRUSE


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