Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 150500
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 321 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Afternoon water vapor loop and RAP analysis revealed a strong, zonal
Pacific jet from Northern California to the Dakotas. A shortwave
trough was embedded within this jet core across Wyoming. This
induced fairly strong low level response on the High Plains, and was
largely responsible for allowing low stratus to erode quicker and
farther east than most morning mesoscale model solutions were
suggesting. This resulted in temperatures warming well into the
upper 60s to lower 70s for a larger portion of southwest and west
central Kansas.

The shortwave trough in Wyoming will continue to push east tonight,
pushing a cold front at the surface south across western Nebraska
and eventually western Kansas later tonight. Whatever low stratus
attempts to make it back west this evening will quickly become
shunted quickly south and east once the front moves through.
Dewpoints will fall to around 30F by daybreak, but there will not be
much in the way of cold air behind this front, given the degree of
downslope trajectory of the parcels in the low levels. The coldest
air, by far, will be well off to the northeast toward the Upper
Midwest region. Winds behind the front will be around 15 to 20 mph
for a 3 to 5 hour period early in the morning before weakening to 10
mph or less by afternoon. It should turn out to be rather pleasant
Wednesday afternoon with a lot of sunshine, very little wind, and
temperatures topping out 57 to 60F for a high.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

A much more intense Pacific jet will be entering the Rockies and
adjacent Central Plains Friday/Friday Night, but again this will
also be low amplitude with the core of the jet passing just north of
our southwest Kansas region. The end result will be a surface low
tracking from east-central Colorado through Central Kansas before
shooting off into Illinois. Light accumulating precipitation will be
confined to areas of southern Nebraska and perhaps far northern
Kansas, but west central and southwest Kansas are expected to remain
dry. Thursday will be quite mild, but breezy, ahead of the
approaching storm. Highs in the upper 60s west to upper 50s east.
Friday will be more interesting, as the surface low really begins to
deepen just to our northwest. A surge of strong west-southwesterly
downslope momentum will allow 850mb temps to rocket up to around
+21C at Dodge City. 850mb temp of +21C at Dodge City mixes down to
around 82F at the surface, and this would be a record high for the
date (November 17th record is only 80F at Dodge City). There will
likely be an abundance of high cirriform cloud cover, although the
opacity of this cloud is nearly impossible to forecast at this
stage. We will be going with highs in the upper 70s with around 80F
along the Oklahoma border. This is a +2F adjustment of the
SuperBlend starting point guidance. At any rate, it definitely looks
quite warm Friday. Strongest winds will likely be south of the
Arkansas River where gradient will be stronger. winds along the
Oklahoma border could be quite strong in the 20-30 mph range (if not
a touch higher).

As has been the theme with all these waves passing by, the coldest
air will be well off to our northeast given downslope momentum
behind the front masking a lot of the cold advection. After this
storm system moves through, we will return to above normal
temperatures going into the end of this forecast period (beginning
of next week). A major shift in the large scale circulation regime
does not seem all that likely through next week, so the prevailing
below normal precip and near/above normal temperatures should
continue until such hemispheric pattern shift occurs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Much improved flying weather through Wednesday. No cig/vis
concerns through this TAF forecast cycle; expecting VFR/SKC.
A dry cold front will sweep through the terminals through 12z
Wed, producing strong north winds, with gusts up to 30 kts.
Strongest north winds are expected right at sunrise Wednesday.
Winds will rapidly diminish through the afternoon hours, as a
surface high settles into SW KS by 21z. Expect winds to go light
and variable for several hours 21z Wed - 03z Thu, before light
SEly return flow develops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  39  59  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  37  57  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  37  56  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  39  59  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  39  58  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
P28  45  61  35  59 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner



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