Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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184
FXUS63 KDDC 190431
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1131 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2016

Upper anticyclone has taken over, with 500 mb heights of
597-598 dm. Lack of downslope and green vegetation again holding
temperatures down this afternoon from what would normally be
expected with such strong height rises. Temperatures only in the
mid 80s to lower 90s as of noon, but should get some upper 90s
this afternoon once mixing increases with a south wind averaging
15-25 mph. Thunderstorms firing near Raton Pass, NM this afternoon
will expand in coverage and spread NE across eastern Colorado into
NW Kansas this afternoon and evening, on the periphery of the
upper level ridging and associated capping. It is not impossible
a storm may approach the far NW corners of our CWA through this
evening, but the vast majority of activity will remain NW of our
zones, and kept the forecast dry through tonight.

Tuesday...No change in the synoptic pattern, delivering another
hot and dry day. High confidence that all locations will be dry,
as upper high expands and pushes moisture plume further westward
into Colorado. Plenty hot in the 90s, but again green vegetation
and lack of downslope will preclude most locations from reaching
100. South winds again averaging 15-25 mph in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2016

Strong sprawling high pressure ridge centered near SE Kansas will
be in firm control Wednesday and Thursday. Few clouds, breezy
south winds, no chance of rain, and hot afternoons. Afternoon
highs within a few degrees of 100.

Friday...Still hot, with highs near 100. Upper ridge will be in
the process of retrograding southwestward, ending up as a 598 dm
high near Lubbock, Texas Friday evening. With more of a westerly
flow aloft, this will open the door for a possibility of a
thunderstorm across the northern zones Friday evening, as both
12z GFS and ECMWF suggest.

Saturday and Sunday...Rain chances increasing over the weekend.
Upper high retreats westward quickly, ending up in California by
Saturday afternoon, and over the Great Basin as a sprawling 598 dm
ridge on Sunday. NW flow aloft will return, allowing for
convective potential to return to SW KS. CR_init pop grids show
this trend nicely, with an emphasis on the western zones nearest
the higher terrain. N/NW flow will continue through early next
week, as massive upper ridge finds a home near Utah. With the
northerly flow and a gradual reduction in heights, temperatures
will show a gradual cooling trend Sunday and next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Mon Jul 18 2016

VFR conditions will prevail. Light south winds become south at
15-23kt after 15-17Z as a surface lee trough continues.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71  98  72 100 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  69  98  70 100 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  69  98  71  99 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  69 100  72 101 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  73  98  74 100 /  10   0   0   0
P28  73  98  74 101 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Kruse



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