Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 172357
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
657 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ABOVE THE ROCKIES DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
INCREASED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW AS A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY
TOMORROW MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40
DEGREES ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO MID 40S ACROSS THE KS/OK
BORDER. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD THERE ARE SUBTLE FEATURES THAT COULD
BRING A LITTLE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.
ACTUALLY, THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A SMALL AND COMPACT S/WV TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES THAT WAS MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE
WEEKEND.  BESIDES, BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO IT
APPEARS THAT THE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

THE NEXT CHANGE WILL BE ANOTHER DIGGING S/WV INTO THE SOUTHWEST
(AGAIN IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES). THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS HAVE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS DEVELOPMENT.
REGARDLESS, ANY IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY BE LATER NEXT WEEK.  THERE IS
ALREADY SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS NO NEED TO TWEAK
SMALL POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BUT THERE WILL
BE DAILY FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO CLOUD COVER THAT MOVES THROUGH.  THE
ONLY THING TO WATCH IS A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WHICH COULD ALLOW A WEAK "BACKDOOR" FRONT BY MONDAY BUT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THE IMPACTS WOULD BE GREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST, RESULTING IN
SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. AS A RESULT, WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT, THEN SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS BY 21Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  44  65  48  75 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  43  66  47  75 /   0   0  10   0
EHA  45  66  48  77 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  45  66  47  77 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  40  63  46  73 /   0   0   0   0
P28  45  66  46  73 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...HUTTON
AVIATION...FINCH



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