Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 040602
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
102 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
...Updated short term section...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2015
A weak shortwave currently moving through the Central High Plains
will bring a chance of light rain showers this morning. This
activity should dissipate or move out of the area by noon. Mid to
upper levels of the atmosphere look to remain moist throughout the
day into tonight leading to mostly cloudy skies across western
Kansas. Southeast winds will continue today through tonight as lee
troughing continues across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures,
highs today look to only reach into the mid to upper 60s with lows
tonight dipping into the upper 40s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
The early part of the extended period will see height levels
building somewhat over the middle part of the country while the
western conus upper low drops south through California. The cool
airmass over the central High Plains will gradually loosen it grip
by early next week. We should see mainly dry conditions with
slowly moderating temperatures through midweek. The latest medium
range model solutions are all suggesting that the west coast upper
low will push east through the central and southern conus around
next Thursday as westerly momentum increases over North America.
This system will provide the next significant chance for precipitation
for western Kansas. The CR_Init gives chance to slight chance pops
for the area from Wednesday through Thursday. This looks
reasonable for now but is suspect it could be subject to change
given how the models handle these closed low systems plus the fact
this is still 5-6 days out.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Sunday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015
Light rain showers will be possible early this morning across DDC
and GCK terminals bringing brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise expect
VFR conditions with a layer of mid level clouds. Winds will
generally be from the east southeast at 6-9 knots.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 47 75 54 / 20 0 10 0
GCK 65 49 75 53 / 20 10 10 10
EHA 66 51 74 52 / 10 10 10 10
LBL 67 49 76 53 / 20 10 10 10
HYS 65 48 75 54 / 20 0 10 10
P28 71 51 75 55 / 20 0 10 10