Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200005
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
605 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Boundary layer moisture continues to increase this afternoon, as
observed with dew points across our south central Kansas counties
making it to the 50 degree threshold. Fog and expanding stratus
could redevelop just as the loss of isolation begins across that
region. Additionally, the NAM family of models has been in general
agreement with spreading showers and embedded thunderstorms north
across the area from western OK around 00 UTC and though central
Kansas though midnight, with precipitation generally ending after
that. As the precipitation moves off to the east towards early
Monday morning, the HRRR at this time developing another round of
advection fog through the highway 183 corridor, which may cause
travel problems in those areas as was the case last night and this
morning. With a wave moving through the region, the fog won`t linger
anywhere near as long as it did this morning, as westerly downslope
surface winds develop by around 12 UTC Monday.

On Monday, an 850 mb ridge shifts across western Kansas with breezy
northwest surface winds preceding light winds heading into the
evening and overnight. Temperatures  may be similar to what we`ve seen
on Sunday. The initial 850 mb cold pool will quickly be replaced
with adiabatically warmed air with NAM taking surface temperatures
into the 60s by mid afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Moderation right back into the climatological abnormally warm regime
through mid week is expected starting Tuesday. Looking like 80
degrees can`t be ruled out any of the days Tuesday through Thursday
near the OK line. The next wave continues to be advertised by the
models by late Thursday and Friday timeframe, with a chance for snow
and rainshowers precluding a colder and windier Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

The wind will gradually shift from the south to southwest toward
12z ahead of a cold front. The front will pass around 15-16z
with a wind shift to the northwest at 15 kts. VFR conditions
are expected to persist at DDC/GCK but MVFR CIGS will return
for a few hours at HYS along with a few showers between 04z
and 08z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Hamilton and Kearney counties were added to the Fire Weather Watch
primarily covering northwest KS and northeastern CO for Monday
afternoon. Any combination of slightly warmer temperatures or
drier dew points than the models are showing could easily send
the area (or more) into the red flag criteria for around 3 hours
or so late Monday afternoon. Notably the ECMWF has much drier dew
points than our current mesoscale model runs. Other than that, dry
fuels and breezy winds it the afternoon would discourage outdoor
burning across the entire area west of highway 283.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  71  37  75 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  40  69  32  76 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  39  68  35  76 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  40  71  33  77 /  20   0   0   0
HYS  48  69  36  75 /  30   0   0   0
P28  52  74  39  74 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch Monday afternoon for KSZ061-062.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Finch
FIRE WEATHER...Russell



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