Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 191733

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1233 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

...Updated Aviation and Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Water vapor loop midday showed a rather formidable disturbance in
the polar jet stream moving out of Montana into the Dakotas.
Meanwhile, a subtropical wave moved out of Colorado and into far
western Kansas this morning. This promoted the development of
showers and thunderstorms through the morning hours, particularly
across northwest Kansas. An axis of mid level moisture extended down
into southwest Kansas, however isolated to scattered showers that
were tied to this axis of moisture dissipated by midday. We were
tracking a fine line on DDC 88D between Garden City and Dodge City,
which is the first front. There was a second, stronger front farther
north, moving into southeastern Wyoming.

This initial front will have all the low level moisture to work
with, and by mid afternoon convection should erupt along it from
north central KS to the Arkansas River. This is the corridor where
the most concentrated thunderstorm activity will be from mid
afternoon through early evening. Later on, additional storms will
likely develop from the Arkansas River to the Oklahoma border. POPs
will be highest (80 percent) from Stafford to Barber County, and
will begin a decreasing trend after 03Z as one or two MCSs shift on
to the east. The second front will be pushing into west central and
southwest KS in the 06-12Z time frame, but moisture will be rather
depleted to support organized convection. As far as severe weather
threats are concerned, there is still a Slight Risk from SPC, which
still looks pretty good as SBCAPE reaches the 2000-3000 J/Kg range
along with deep layer shear enough to support organized multicell
clusters, and perhaps briefly a supercell structure or two at the
onset of convection. It would be this early phase that large hail
would be the greatest threat (perhaps up to golf ball size) with the
threat evolving more toward damaging straight line winds, especially
as storms move deeper into central and south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Much cooler temperatures can be expected in the wake of the front
with highs in the upper 70s Saturday. Temperatures should fall
into the lower to middle 50s by Sunday morning. There are chances
of thunderstorms again by Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the
aforementioned upper level disturbances. It is too early to tell
whether these will be severe. Temperatures will recover from Saturday`s
cooldown, with highs in the upper 80s by Monday and Tuesday and
then mid 80s by late week. There are additional chances for
thunderstorms late next week as southern stream and northern
stream upper level troughs continue to affect western Kansas.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Thunderstorms will likely affect or come close to affecting HYS and
DDC terminals late this afternoon. This would be at the early onset
of thunderstorm activity along this front, and convection should
move east of both terminals by early evening. Winds will generally
be less than 12 knots this evening and overnight after the storms
pass. The much cooler temperatures moving in, along with residual
low level moisture, will support the development of at least some
areas of MVFR and perhaps IFR ceiling at DDC and HYS. For now, we
will forecast MVFR ceiling after 06Z at HYS and DDC, but ceilings
could dip into IFR territory.


DDC  87  59  76  56 /  50  50  10  10
GCK  84  57  76  54 /  30  20  10  10
EHA  85  55  77  57 /  30  40  10  10
LBL  89  58  77  56 /  30  30  10  10
HYS  83  57  76  53 /  60  60  10  10
P28  91  64  77  57 /  80  80  10  10


.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.