Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 170535 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1235 AM CDT Sun Aug 17 2014

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

Short range models indicate the upper level ridge axis across the
Intermountain West pushing slowly eastward into the Western High
Plains tonight. Combined with a fairly weak flow aloft, drier
conditions are likely across much of western Kansas through Sunday
afternoon. However, isolated thunderstorms are possible across
eastern Colorado late this afternoon as a southeast upslope flow
develops across the region. Cannot rule out an isolated storm
drifting into portions of extreme southwest Kansas later tonight.
Mild temperatures are likely once again tonight with little change
expected to the overall air mass. Look for lows down into the
60s(F) across west central Kansas to the lower 70s(F) in south
central Kansas. Widespread 90s(F) are likely once again Sunday
afternoon with near 100F possible closer to the Oklahoma border.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

For this extended period, it will basically be hot with periodic low
chances for thunderstorms.  On Tuesday, the upper high pressure dome
will be southwest of our forecast area near the 4-corners area, with
a slight northwest down slope effect in place across southwestern
Kansas.  By Sunday, that upper high pressure system will break down
and travel east over the southern plains through Wednesday.  After
Wednesday, the upper high pressure will be centered near Florida,
and a low pressure trough will be moving toward us from California
and the west coast.

As for the lower level pattern over the surface, there will be a
cold front coming south on Tuesday afternoon, but only making it as
far south as I-70.  That front should get shoved back north on
Wednesday as a warm front, with a surface trough draped northeast to
southwest across our CWA.  That surface trough will meander around
our CWA through Friday, when another cold front will sag south into
our forecast region about Saturday.  Low end Pops will exist nearly
every day near the trough or front.  On Tuesday night and Wednesday,
I expect 20 to 30 Pops basically north of I-70, and lower slight
chances south of there.  On Thursday, a small short wave will come
down through western Kansas in the northwest flow, along with the
surface trough being in place, and just about anywhere in our CWA
there will be at least a 20 percent chance for thunderstorms.  Those
low 20 percent chance will be more concentrated near the trough on
Thursday night. There should be a breather from the rain chances
Friday, but then that aforementioned front will sag south into
western Kansas Friday night and bring 20 to 30 percent chances to
our west and north sections. It looks as if the front will start
to dissipate Saturday, and precipitation chances will diminish.

I mentioned the hot trend earlier, and most days will be in the
upper 90s, with a few 100F+ highs possible along the Oklahoma
border.  Minimum temperatures will be elevated and generally from
the upper 60s in the Scott City area to the mid 70s in the Barber
county area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

A few thunderstorms will be in the vicinity of Hays for a few
hours till around 08Z. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. A
weak lee surface trough will develop today with light and variable
winds becoming south at 10-15kt. By evening winds will become
southeast around 10kt. An area of thunderstorms may develop and
head towards KGCK and KHYS by around 04-07Z Sunday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  98  68  98 /  20  20  20  10
GCK  69  97  66  96 /  20  20  20  10
EHA  68  96  67  96 /  20  20  20  10
LBL  68  99  68  98 /  20  20  30  10
HYS  69  97  68  95 /  20  20  20  10
P28  71  99  71  98 /  10  20  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Burke
AVIATION...Kruse






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