Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 170512
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1212 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Given latest radar trends it appears that the ARW, NMM, and to a
slightly lesser degree HRRR may have the right idea with
convection increasing north of Dodge over the next 3-6 hours given
the isentropic lift, cooling 700mb temps, 850 waa, and mid level
instability. Have lowered/removed precipitation chances south of
Dodge.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Quite a difference in the models this afternoon concerning
possibilities for convection across south central Kansas.
The HRRR has really only been supported by the WRF-NMM and has
been consistent run after run today supporting a cluster of
thunderstorms initiating near the cold front-dryline intersection
in northwest OK, and moving quickly northeast over the areas of
Comanche Barber Pratt and Stafford counties between 4 and 7 pm.
There is about 30kts of 0-6 km bulk shear, and and LHP value in
the lowest bin (still thinking half dollar or slighlty larger
size hail for max size), and possibility of locally severe wind
gusts. Several of the other CAM`s fail to produce convection
across our local counties. As the boundary spreads south later
tonight, low level stratiform clouds will redevelop and
overspread much of the area by early Sunday morning. The trend
of the low level cloudiness will be one of the forecast
challenges for Sunday temperatures, as winds remain light easterly
and upslope under a surface high pressure ridge. It could remain
cloudy all day over the entire forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Latest 12UTC GFS continues to show weak mid level differential
vorticity moving through the downstream flow Sunday night, which
may account for additional elevated showers and thunderstorms
through the region. Light and variable or even easterly winds
Monday should be replaced by south winds as another warm front
develops by Monday night. This will setup a hot downslope flow day
on Tuesday, where the GFSMOS has 95 degrees at DDC. Both the GFS
and EC meet this hot airmass with another cold front on Tuesday
night, which should easily knock temperatures back down into the
low 80s on Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

NAM and RAP models soundings indicating increasing low level
moisture overnight and early Sunday with MVFR conditions
developing between 12z and 15z Sunday for all the TAF sites with
the last area for MVFR ceilings being in the Hays area. Ceilings
may even dip briefly into the IFR category for a short period
early this morning at Dodge City and Garden City. Once these low
clouds do develop these cloud bases will slowly increase slightly
but cloudy skies are expected through early tonight. Cloud bases
will gradually rise during the day into the low VFR category by
the mid to late afternoon. Scattered elevated convection possible
through the overnight hours, mainly north of Dodge City so will be
including VCTS at HAYS and GCK. Winds overnight into early Sunday
will be northeast at 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  77  62  90 /  20  30  30  20
GCK  53  74  60  88 /  30  30  30  10
EHA  51  76  59  89 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  56  78  61  91 /  20  30  30  20
HYS  53  72  61  85 /  30  40  50  20
P28  63  79  65  89 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert



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