Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 230535
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1135 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

AN UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL STAY SOUTH OF KANSAS AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS TEXAS INTO FRIDAY.
CLEARING SKIES AND DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS KANSAS TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
INCREASE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY
AROUND 5 TO 8 MPH BY MIDNIGHT, WITH CLEAR SKIES, AS A RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS
WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS. PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FROM 20 TO 24 DEGREES.

FOR FRIDAY, WEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH BECOME NORTHWESTERLY LATE AT 10
TO 15 MPH AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS KANSAS. HIGHS
WILL BE AROUND 50 WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN
KANSAS. CLEAR SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TOWARDS
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS GIVING
WAY TO A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OFF THE COAST
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ASHORE THIS WEEKEND.
THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE LARGE AMPLIFIED RIDGE SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE, A LOW LEVEL WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL USHER MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

A WARMING TREND IS LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS(C) ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS SATURDAY.
ALONG WITH THE HELP OF A PREVAILING DOWNSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE, LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 50S(F) ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 60F POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 60S(F) FOR THE MOST PART SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES,
RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  19  49  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  16  48  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  13  46  27  51 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  15  47  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  17  50  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
P28  22  50  28  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...FINCH


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