Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 051857
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1257 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1255 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

While a westerly flow aloft prevails across the Western High Plains,
precip chances will remain absent across western Kansas through
Wednesday as A west-northwest downslope flow continues to funnel
extremely dry air into the region. The cold air mass across the
high plains will be slow to erode tonight as surface high pressure
drops southward into the Texas Panhandle. Under mostly clear
skies with fairly light winds, should see lows generally down into
the 20s(F) tonight. An upper level shortwave will drop southeast
across the Upper Midwest ushering a weak frontal boundary through
western Kansas early Wednesday. This will reinforce the colder air
mass across the Western High Plains resulting in highs only up
into the 40s(F) again Wednesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 403 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

On the hemispheric scale, ridging along the West Coast and deep
troughing across the eastern half of North America will continue.
This pattern will continue to result in periodic frontal passages,
but the fronts this far west will have some downslope modification
to them. The next coherent cold front looks to be Wednesday Night,
as the global models agree 850mb temperatures in the -8 to -11C
range will push into Kansas, but mainly the central part of the
state. This should result in temperatures on Thursday being the
lowest of the week with highs in central Kansas likely remaining in
the 30s. This will only be a brief shot of colder air, as downslope
momentum resumes late-week. Temperatures will rebound Friday back to
the upper 40s to lower 50s with even warmer temperatures by
Saturday. No precipitation is in the forecast as the northwest flow
pattern in between the ridge to the west, trough to the east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1103 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Wednesday
morning. West-northwest winds 5 to 15kt will persist through early
Wednesday as surface high pressure shifts southward from southwest
Kansas into the Texas Panhandle during the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  23  46  19 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  48  22  45  19 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  49  22  44  22 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  49  22  46  20 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  49  25  45  20 /   0   0   0   0
P28  51  25  48  22 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson



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