Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 071927

227 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014

...Update to short term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)


The main focus for tonight is where convection will be located and how
severe. Right now, visible satellite imagery shows some developing cumulus
across the Plains of east-central Colorado. Expect further development
of cumulus into northwest Kansas through the afternoon. This activity
is along a frontal boundary. Convective allowing models break out thunderstorms
this evening with the best chances along the I-70 corridor. Storms may
extend all the way down to Highway 96, though, later tonight. As far
as severity, some of the models want to mix out current dewpoints, which,
so far, is not happening as much as the models indicate. Running the
thermodynamic and wind-related parameters through the Large Hail Parameter
(LHP) comes up with a value of 6. This basically suggests that hail
could potentially be up to the size of golf balls. Not really sure if
we will get a sustained weakly rotating updraft or not, so hail could
be smaller. There is not a threat of tornadoes. There could be 60+ mph
outflow winds, as an inverted-v thermodynamic profile is expected. Have
the highest pops for Trego and Ellis counties and then taper values
quickly southward as thunderstorms are not expected along and south
of a line from Coolidge to St. John. The most recent HRRR has storms
south of this line, however, this model tends to overdo cold pools and
resultant upscale growth. Overnight lows will be in the 60s/70s.


Much cooler temperatures are expected for tomorrow as the aforementioned
front sinks south of the region. Have lowered maximums as the majority
of the models are now cooler with "cold" air advection in the wake of
the front. Expecting maximums mostly in the mid 80s along with 10-20
mph N/NE winds. There could be some storms along and south of the Arkansas
river...have slight pops in after 21Z, but most of the precipitation
will be during the long term period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

This extended period will begin with Tuesday night.  A small short
wave in the upper atmosphere will be coming northeast from  the
southwest, with low and mid-level moisture overriding a front which
will be across New Mexico and Oklahoma.  Just slight chances for
storms at first in our southwest corner, followed by a brief period
of 30 percent Pops.  A warm front will then get pushed northeastward
late Tuesday night, and the small 20 percent thunderstorm chances
will advance northeast with the front, in the form of a NW to SE
oriented 20 to 40 mile wide band.  Precip chances will diminish
toward Wednesday morning, as the front out races the upper level
support.  Late Wednesday, a lee side trough will trigger a few
thunderstorms in our west and southwest zones, with another upper
short wave trough traveling southwest through Western Kansas
Wednesday night.  Since plenty of low level moisture will be in
place when the upper trough moves through, 30 to 40 percent chances
for thunderstorms seems appropriate, especially in our eastern zones
Wednesday night.  There could be some good rainfall amounts in the
Hays to St. John areas Wednesday night. Then the upper high pressure
ridge will build in across the western parts of the southern
plains Thursday, and cut off our chances for widespread rain. Each
afternoon a lee side trough will form, and on Friday evening and
night, as well as on both Saturday and Sunday evenings, and there
will be slight chances for thunderstorms in our west. On Monday, a
small upper low pressure wave forms in far western Kansas and
moves across Kansas. This will help aid storms form north of the
I-70 corridor Sunday night, and in our northeast and east zones

Wednesday will start out relatively mild, with maximum temperatures
around 90 degrees.  Then the warm air advances back into Western
Kansas.  850 mb temps near 30C in our west Thursday, ranging down to
25C in our east zones will yield highs Thursday in the upper 90s
west to the lower 90s east.  Max Temperatures will be very similar
Friday through Sunday.  When that upper low moves across Monday,
plenty of clouds will be present, and highs will be considerably
lower in the mid to upper 80s.

Minimum temperatures will average in the middle 60s on Thursday and
again on Monday.  For the Friday through Sunday stretch, minimums
will be the lower to mid 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)

Convective potential is still the highest at KHYS this evening as
all the convective allowing models are in fair agreement that
there will be no convection farther south. Have included a tempo
group as a result. Other concern is wind shift with fropa late
tonight. NNE-NE winds 15-25 kt possible through overnight pd across
the terminals.


DDC  67  86  64  90 /  10  20  20  20
GCK  66  85  63  91 /  20  20  20  20
EHA  67  85  64  93 /  10  30  30  20
LBL  69  87  65  91 /  10  30  30  20
HYS  66  85  63  89 /  50  10  10  10
P28  72  89  67  90 /  10  20  30  20




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