Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDDC 240900
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
300 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

THE LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES
INDICATED A S/WV TROUGH DIVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN
MONTANA. THIS S/WV AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET IN THE MID-LEVELS
WILL BE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY. A STEEP LAPSE RATE AND
UVV FROM THE S/WV WILL HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE VERY DRY SO THAT
VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE SURFACE. THE MOST LIKELY
AREAS TO RECEIVE MORE THAN A TRACE WILL BE PRIMARILY WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF MY COUNTIES. GRIDDED DATA WILL HAVE VERY LOW POPS OUT
WEST. WITH MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE HIGH BASED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS, SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY, ALTHOUGH NOT
NEARLY AS STRONG AS WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE S/WV THIS EVENING AND DECOUPLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY AND SKIES WILL START
TO CLEAR. THUS, OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COLDER THAN LOWS THIS MORNING MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BY TUESDAY, SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WILL BE UNDER A LONG-FETCH OF
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW.  AN UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE
MOVED TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THEN. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALOFT WILL BE OFF THE CALIFORNIA AND BAJA COAST. THE UPPER
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THURSDAY, AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN COAST, AND THE PACIFIC HIGH
DIMINISHES IN SIZE. THIS WILL BRING A WARM FRONT THROUGH MOST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY`S SOLUTION, AS WELL. THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY, BLOW LIGHTLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY, AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON THANKSGIVING.

NO PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, AS UPPER DISTURBANCES
WILL BE SCANT AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S TUESDAY, AND THEN RISE TO THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE ONLY TIME PERIOD WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WILL BE
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH IN
THE UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL GO THROUGH
A SLOW WARMING TREND FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN LEVEL
OFF. LOWS TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOWER 20S, AND WARM TO THE
LOWER 30S BY THURSDAY OR THANKSGIVING MORNING, AND REMAIN IN THAT
RANGE THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, THERE COULD BE WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVE THROUGH, AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
20S.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND, THERE APPEARS TO BE A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WINDS HAVE DECREASED WITH DECOUPLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER,
BY MID-MORNING THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS, BUT NOTHING LIKE SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  23  53  28 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  50  20  53  27 /  10  10   0   0
EHA  50  23  53  30 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  52  22  53  27 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  48  22  53  28 /   0   0   0   0
P28  53  23  52  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HUTTON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...HUTTON



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.