Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 181100
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Earth, wind and fire concerns for today. Today will be very warm with
strong southwesterly downslope winds as low level cyclogenesis occurs
across southeast Colorado. A weak dryline will surge across the central
zones with very warm temperatures and strong southwest winds expected
in its wake. To the southeast, with higher dewpoints, the relative
humidity will be more on the marginal side for the southeastern zones.
For temps and weather, expect widespread mid to upper 70s across a
good portion of southwest Kansas. The air quality model does show a
plume of sfc dust in the axis of stronger sfc winds. Have areas of
blowing dust for Liberal, Dodge City, Greensburg, and Larned areas.
Confidence on this is not particularly high, but our dry and drought
plagued Earth could easily stir up some dust with the 20 to 40 mph
winds that are expected today. The other and more impacting concern
is red flag conditions. For the specifics, see the section below. The
bottom line, do not burn today as fires can easily get quickly out
of control. Any hot work should be safely monitored as well as cigarettes
properly extinguished.

Attention the turns to tonight. An Arctic front will approach the region
tonight and clear much of the forecast district by morning. The main
exception to this is near the Oklahoma border, particularly for far
southwest Kansas, as the front slows down.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 333 AM CST Sun  Feb 18 2018

For tomorrow, highs will likely occur around midnight or in the morning
hours with values crashing through the day. This is particularly true
across the northern zones, where about a 40-50 degree temperature drop
is expected between today and tomorrow. Did sharpen the highs for tomorrow
across the southern zones, where the gradient will be impressive, even
just across the southern counties. The front is expected to be dry
with no precipitation associated with it. There could be elevated fire
weather conditions across far southwest Kansas, but confidence on this
is medium. If the front does not slow down, then obviously any fire
weather concerns will be lower.

Cold air will continue to surge southward on Tuesday with 850-hPa temperatures
around -11C across the north. Highs will only be in the 20s to the
north and 30s to the south. It looks like any precipitation will be
east and south of the forecast area.

Beyond Tuesday, cold air will continue across the Central Plains on
Wednesday. The fb grids have some pops across the eastern zones early
Thursday. Would not be surprised if there is a trend to a drier solution
with time as the main wave and best WAA is probably going to be too
far away from much of the forecast area. Something to watch. Temperatures
will continue to moderate through the rest of the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 500 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

VFR is expected through TAF pd. LLWS of 50-60 kt will gradually decrease
towards dawn. Surface winds will increase later today and be southwesterly
25-35 kt. Gusts of 50 kt could be possible during the early afternoon
period. Winds will decrease tonight by dusk. Another 40-50 kt LLWS period
is psbl through the overnight period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Much of the red flag warning has been unchanged and will continue as
is. There are a few counties that are marginal in terms of our thresholds.
Kept Ellis, Rush, Pawnee, and Stafford counties in to blend in with
NWS Wichita GFDI criteria. The threshold they use is different than
our RH/Wind criteria. Regardless, the meteorology is there for very
active fire weather growth. Very warm temperatures (relative to the
time of the year), strong downslope southwesterly winds, and low rh`s
will favor red flag conditions for much of the fire district. Given
antecedent conditions, felt it was prudent to not be conservative with
RFW criteria. The bottom line... do not burn today as fires could easily
get quickly out of control.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  76  44  51  24 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  76  36  54  18 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  75  42  71  23 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  76  46  73  29 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  74  32  38  16 /   0   0  10  10
P28  71  54  70  37 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ today to 7 PM CST /6
PM MST/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>078-
084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden
FIRE WEATHER...Sugden



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