000
FXUS63 KDDC 192305
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
605 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY SWINGING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE OF THIS LOW AND MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. TOWARDS THE
SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS KANSAS BUT STALL OUT ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW.
EVEN WITH THIS DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WIND, A FEW SHOWERS OR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO AMPLE MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS. NONE OF THESES STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE BUT
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE STRONGEST.
OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH TOMORROW.
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND
THE KS/CO BORDER TO UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS
TOMORROW ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
ANOTHER BUSY DAY WITH A TORNADO WATCH OUT TIL 10 PM FOR OUR EASTERN
3 MOST COUNTIES.  PROBLEMS WITH GFE ONLY COMPOUNDED THE BUSY DAY.
THE EXTENDED PRETTY MUCH STAYED THE SAME, WITH LIMITED TIME TO
ANALISE THE DATA.  THE 3 EAST COUNTIES OF BARBER,  PRATT AND
STAFFORD WILL LIKELY, IF ANY, HAVE ONLY SEVERE HAIL ON THE SMALL
SIDE.  THE WINDS BY THIS TIME ARE NEARLY STACKED FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.  HOWEVER, SINCE THE CURRENT WATCH WAS LINKED TO AREAS TO
THE EAST, A TORNADO WATCH WAS DECIDED ON.

STEPPING INTO THE EXTENDED, THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING
NORTH AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WHILE DIP INTO
THE I-70 AREA. LOW END 20 POPS EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKEENEY
AND HAYS AREA.  A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  LOW 20
PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ENTER WESTERN KANSAS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, INCREASE TO 30 TO 50 POPS ON THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH
FROM THE NORTHERN LOW SWEEPS THROUGH DODGE`S AREA.  THAT UPPER
TROUGH WILL BASICALLY KEEP 30 TO 45 PERCENT POPS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE FAR EASTERN ZONES OF STAFFORD, PRATT AND BARBER COUNTY WILL
STILL HAVE 20 POPS IN FOR SUNDAY.  IF I HAD TO PICK ONE DAY WHEN THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IS, IT WOULD HAVE TO BE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GIVE THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.  THERE COULD EVEN
BEEN SOME SEVERE STORMS LATE THURSDAY, WITH BOTH THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVING OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE FRONT SINKING IN, OR BACKING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST.  TEMPERATURES DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM PREVIOUSLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

SCATTERED LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL TAPER
OFF BY MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT KEEPING THE WINDS NORTHWEST AND 10KTS OR
LESS. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. CIGS BETWEEN 5000 AND 7000 FEET WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET AS CONVECTION CROSSES HAYS AND NEAR THE
DDC AIRPORTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  78  50  77 /  30  20  20  10
GCK  50  77  49  75 /  30  20  20  10
EHA  49  75  49  77 /  30  20  20  10
LBL  52  78  50  79 /  20  20  20  10
HYS  53  78  50  72 /  40  20  20  20
P28  57  81  55  80 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT