Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 190732
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
232 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to strengthen across the southern
Rockies today into tonight with a 250 mb 50+ knot jet positioned
above eastern Colorado and Kansas. Another weak shortwave is progged
to move around this ridge during the afternoon into evening and help
increase lift across portions of the CWA. Mid levels of the
atmosphere are a little more moist than yesterday but I do not
believe it will be enough to produce copious amounts of clouds
throughout the day. This is different as you head to the surface as
low level moisture will be abundant allowing for stratus to be found
during the morning hours. These clouds should dissipate by afternoon
leaving mostly clear skies. Temperatures to return back to normal
for this time of year this afternoon with highs ranging from the
upper 80s across central and south central Kansas where clouds will
hang around the longest to mid 90s across the KS/CO border. A trough
of low pressure will be located across eastern Colorado throughout
the day with southerly winds being felt across the forecast area.
Towards the late afternoon, a few storms are expected to form across
the KS/CO border and slide east during the evening hours. With
MLCAPE values over 1000 J/Kg and 0-6 shear above 20 knots, a few of
these storms may become severe with hail and damaging winds being
the main concern. This activity should weaken and dissipate by
midnight leaving partly cloudy skies for the rest of the night. Lows
by Sunday morning look to be in the upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

The question in the extended is the magnitude of the elevated
mixed layer as the upper ridge builds into the southern and
perhaps central Rockies. All the forecast models have varying
amplitude. It`s hard to believe the atmosphere will become too
capped for at least high plains convection. Even though the ridge
does appear to be likely to build, there will still be decent flow
across the northern Rockies. This will result in lee surface
troughing and should promote a continued fetch of southerly flow
and higher theta-e air into the plains. I think higher terrain
convection, at least on a scattered basis during the late
afternoon and evening hours, seems plausible well into the
extended. But, I also don`t see it moving too far east into my CWA
given light flow aloft. Max temperatures will be heavily moderated
by recent wetness and the amount of vegetative growth. Thus, I
did not go too aggressive on Tmax.

Late in the period or towards the end of next week it appears that
another amplified trough may be setting up for the Midwest and
eastern U.S., and consequently another cool down.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

Low clouds have formed across the DDC and GCK terminals this
evening creating IFR conditions. Short term models suggest these
low clouds to continue throughout the overnight. Visibilities may
also fall to below 6 miles at times but dense fog is not expected.
Hays should remain in VFR throughout the night with only scattered
low clouds. Winds will generally be from the south at 10 to 15
knots increasing to around 15 knots by late morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  69  96  72 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  93  68  97  70 /  20  30  10  10
EHA  95  67  97  69 /  40  50  10  10
LBL  94  69  98  71 /  20  30  10  10
HYS  89  69  97  72 /  10  10  10  10
P28  88  69  93  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hutton
AVIATION...Hovorka_42





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