Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 212310
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
610 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. MID TO HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL. WITH THE RATHER MOIST MID LEVELS, CAPPING WILL BE
VERY WEAK; BUT SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES WILL ONLY BE ABOUT
500-700 J/KG. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN WESTERN
KANSAS AND PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY; BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK,
WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY NOT FALL BELOW THE 50S DUE TO THE LOWER 50S
DEWPOINTS AND SOUTH WIND. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE
MID TO HIGH 70S DESPITE THE MID LEVEL CLOUD AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS AN ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC WAVE MOVES EAST. THAT IS PRETTY MUCH THE LAST
SHOT FOR RAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM DOMAIN.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE BUSINESS
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAY IS FORECAST FRIDAY
AS THE RIDGE IS IN THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED WARM 850-HPA TEMPERATURES - LOW
20CS! LOW TO MID 80S LOW REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND RESULTANT COOLER TEMPERATURES
IS POSSIBLE NEXT MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN TREND TO NEAR OR PERHAPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL - DEPENDING
ON THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED, SO MODELS AREN`T SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF QPF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE 18Z BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATED MOISTURE WILL BE
IMPROVING IN THE 700MB TO 500MB LEVEL, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN THE
800 TO 700MB LEVEL WITH SOME SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM BECOMING POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE ROCKIES AND CROSSES THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS TIME BASED ON TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL NOT INCLUDE SHRA/TSRA IN THE 00Z TERMINAL.
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  75  53  77 /   0  40  50   0
GCK  53  76  49  77 /   0  30  20   0
EHA  52  73  49  78 /   0  20  10   0
LBL  53  75  52  79 /   0  30  20   0
HYS  55  75  51  73 /   0  60  70   0
P28  56  77  56  79 /   0  40  50   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...BURGERT



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