Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 242041

National Weather Service Dodge City KS
241 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

...Updated long term section...


A large upper level high will continue to dig into the western
United states with a ridge in place across the eastern United
States. This will place western Kansas under west to southwest
flow aloft through the short term period. Mid levels of the
atmosphere look fairly dry but as you head to the surface a trough
of low pressure becomes present across eastern Colorado. This will
allow southerly winds to continue with moisture being fed
northward into central Kansas through tomorrow. An increase in mid
to low level cloudiness is expected in this area, generally east
of Highway 283 with mostly clear skies expected elsewhere. In
addition, a surface cold front will start moving through
northwestern Kansas in the afternoon shifting winds to more of a
west to northwesterly direction. As for temperatures, lows tonight
look to range from the mid 20s across portions of west central
Kansas to upper 40s across portions of south central Kansas. Highs
tomorrow look to range from the lower 40s across portions of west
central Kansas to upper 60s across the KS/OK border.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)

The upper level low over the western United States will slowly
move eastward into the Central Rockies then basically sit there
through Saturday before ejecting eastward through the Plains
Sunday into early next week. Upper level shortwaves will eject
eastward from this feature enhancing lift across the Plains for
the remainder of the week into the weekend. Towards the surface,
the aforementioned cold front in the short term section will
continue to sink southward as Wednesday night progresses.
Northerly winds will be felt behind this feature and continue
through at least Sunday. Precipitation chances begin to increase
across central and south central Kansas after midnight as moisture
pools into the area then spread eastward through sunrise as
isentropic lift improves behind this boundary. This precipitation
should fall mostly as rain with the exception of west central
Kansas where it may mix with snow, sleet, or even freezing rain
towards sunrise. Widespread precipitation is then expected across
all of western Kansas Thursday and then continue through Thursday
night. Temperatures near the surface look to fall below freezing
Thursday afternoon into Thursday night with much warmer
temperatures just above this around 850mb. This looks to result in
precipitation to fall across much of the area as freezing rain or
sleet, especially by late Thursday afternoon into the evening
hours. Precipitation is expected to change over to snow across
west central Kansas by Thursday afternoon then spread
southeastward Thursday night. Some ice accumulation is expected
with this system with areas east of Hays to Liberal having the
highest amounts. Precipitation chances continue into Friday and
look to fall mostly as snow or a mix of snow and sleet. The
exception to this will be across portions of central and south
central Kansas where sleet or freezing rain will be possible.
Otherwise expect continued mostly cloudy skies. Snow totals across
western Kansas look to remain light through Friday and generally
less than 3 inches and be confined to western and west central
Kansas. Upslope southeasterly flow will be found Saturday into
Sunday improving lift across the area. Upper level dynamics will
also be improving early this weekend based on the latest track of
the next upper level wave which will be located near the left exit
region of a 250mb jet. Precipitation chances end by early next
week with decreasing cloudiness as the upper level feature moves
out of the area with high pressure building into the area.

As for temperatures, lows Wednesday night will generally range
from the mid 20s across portions of west central Kansas to lower
50s across south central Kansas. Temperatures Thursday do not look
to move much throughout the day behind the cold front with highs
ranging from the upper 20s across west central Kansas to lower 50s
across south central Kansas. An arctic air mass will be in full
force across western Kansas Thursday night through Friday night
with lows in the low to mid 20s and highs Friday in the upper 20s.
Temperatures rebound into the 30s Saturday and Sunday then in the
upper 30s to lower 40s Monday. Lows will generally fall into the
mid to upper 20s.



VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight with
increasing high clouds overnight. Winds will generally be from
just west of a southerly direction around 12 knots this afternoon
shifting to the southeast around 8 knots overnight.


DDC  36  64  39  40 /   0  10  60  80
GCK  29  63  35  35 /   0  10  50  60
EHA  34  68  37  39 /   0  10  40  50
LBL  33  68  43  44 /   0  10  50  60
HYS  35  58  35  35 /  10  10  60  70
P28  47  66  53  53 /  10  10  80 100


.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
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