Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271641
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1141 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Weak pulse convection continues to sputter along on various
outflow boundaries early this morning. HRRR takes any activity
south of the KS/OK line by 4 am. Otherwise, expect moist east/SE
upslope flow to yield stratus across the eastern and NE zones
through sunrise. Any stratus will burn off rapidly after sunrise.

Today...windy and warmer. After a pleasant break from the heat and
wind the past few days, it is back to traditional summertime
weather today. It will be a windy day on the plains, with low
pressure near 989mb in western Nebraska inducing strong south
winds across Kansas. Followed the strongest wind guidance
available, with gusts near 40 mph likely (especially west of Dodge
City). GFS progs a pressure gradient of 11 mb across the CWA
5-7 pm, as 850mb winds increase to near 35 kts. With nearly full
sun and efficient mixing, gusts of this 35 kt caliber can be
expected. Instability will increase significantly this afternoon,
in response to moisture advection holding dewpoints in the lower
60s. CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg is expected across the NE/E zones
by afternoon. However, with the lack of convergence or focusing
mechanisms, opted to keep all zones dry through 7 pm. With strong
warm advection, temperatures will be several degrees warmer than
Monday, with lower 90s common.

Tonight...Still appears primary risk for severe thunderstorms will
be in Nebraska and northern Kansas this evening. Still, 00z
NAM/GFS show excellent agreement forecasting convection to impact
the northern zones this evening, after 7 pm. In our CWA, severe
thunderstorms including possible supercells are most probable
along the I-70 corridor (Trego, Ellis counties) where NAM
forecasts healthy CAPE, shear and EHI. GFS depicts a well-timed
shortwave this evening that may enhance the potential for large
hail and damaging winds. Also, a strong low level jet is
anticipated after sunset tonight, which may serve to improve the
longevity of any storms after sunset. With elevated south winds
and boundary layer moisture, it will be quite warm tonight with
many locales holding near 70.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

The heating trend continues on Wednesday, with afternoon
temperatures ranging from the mid 90s to near 100 along the
Oklahoma border. Strong instability expected Wednesday afternoon,
as this heat combines with boundary layer dewpoints in the lower
60s. NAM/GFS both show CAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg east and NE of
Dodge City through Wednesday evening. Again, with the lack of
convergence or a triggering mechanism, kept the forecast dry for
all zones through 7 pm Wed. After 7 pm, scattered thunderstorms
are expected NE of a Scott City-Jetmore-Pratt line. Sufficient
midlevel flow near 40 kts and strong CAPE will allow some storms
to produce large hail and damaging winds across the NE zones
Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.

More heat on Thursday, with highs well into the 90s. And again,
most of Thursday will be dry, with subsidence behind the previous
night`s storms and under a strong capping inversion. Most
thunderstorm activity will again wait until after 7 pm, and again
favor the eastern zones near the greatest convergence and
instability. 00z ECMWF continues to depict a large MCS across
central Kansas Thursday evening, which would likely have at least
some impact on our eastern zones. Severe storms again are most
likely in the NE zones (near Hays) Thursday evening, with large
hail possible, from initial supercells before the MCS matures
over central Kansas. 00z GFS offers a strong MCS signature over
the northern CWA Thursday evening, and would suggest severe
weather is likely north of roughly US 50 (with a primary threat of
damaging winds).

Friday will be noticeably milder, with temperatures back into the
80s, after a convective outflow-aided cold front passes Thursday
night. Weak surface high over Kansas and associated NE winds will
finally stabilize the atmosphere, with all zones dry and
convection-free Friday afternoon/night.

A warming trend expected on the first weekend of July, with
temperatures back into the 90s Sunday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Aviation weather should be fairly tranquil through the period,
with strong south winds the main weather element of interest. Very
warm temperatures will yield VFR conditions with no additional
risk of IFR or even MVFR ceilings. Scattered thunderstorms will
develop late this afternoon/evening across eastern Colorado, and
there is enough indication of convection rolling along I-70 toward
HYS terminal to at least mention some VCTS or PROB30 for about a 3
hour period late tonight -- most likely centered around the 06z
time frame. An intense nocturnal low level jet around 55 knots
will develop overnight at around 2000 feet, so LLWS group will be
included.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  71  96  68 /  10  10  10  20
GCK  93  68  94  65 /  10  20  10  10
EHA  93  65  95  62 /  10  20   0   0
LBL  94  69  99  68 /  10  10   0  10
HYS  90  70  93  66 /  10  30  10  30
P28  91  72  97  71 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid



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