Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261822
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
122 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN THE SAME, AS NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.  THERE
IS A FRONT WHICH WENT THROUGH TO THE SOUTH LAST NIGHT, STALLING NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. THAT FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO ADVANCE BACK
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT, AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD
FORM IN WESTERN KANSAS. THERE IS ALREADY A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS
SHOWING UP ON RADAR NEAR JOHNSON CITY AND SYRACUSE. DEW POINTS
ARE RIDING FAIRLY HIGH, IN THE LOWER 60S IN OUR WEST AND THE MID
60S IN OUR EAST. SO, I THINK THERE WILL BE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS
THE AFTERNOON GOES ON AND THE FRONT COLLIDES WITH THE DEVELOPING
SURFACE TROUGH. THE LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW IS ADVECTING
MOISTURE INTO THE SURFACE TROUGH, AND THIS COMBINATION WILL
TRIGGER A FEW STORMS. THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT IN
OUR WEST, AND MIGRATE TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES NORTH OF I-70 WHERE
THE FRONT SHOULD BE BY LATER THIS EVENING. FURTHERMORE, THERE IS
ONE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
EVENING AND HELP SUPPLY UPPER SUPPORT FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT DOWN BURST WINDS
TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A SECOND MID LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS FORECAST BY THE NAM AND
ECMWF MODELS TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH TO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY THAN TODAY. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING, THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SCATTERED THROUGHOUT SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS, MAINLY FROM HIGHWAY 283
AND EASTWARD. SINCE THERE WILL AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN, THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GOING MAX T`S RANGING FROM NEAR 90F DEGREES IN
SYRACUSE AND SCOTT CITY AREAS WILL RANGE SLIGHTLY UPWARD TO THE
MID 90S IN THE BARBER COUNTY AREA. SURFACE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE SOUTH AND INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
15G25MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES TO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT OF THE ROCKIES, A PREVAILING
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS PROVIDING INCREASED
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE, AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO POOL AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN A
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WITH H85 DEWPOINTS UP NEAR 15C.
ADDITIONALLY, A +70KT UPPER LEVEL JET LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS, IS PROJECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS TOWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN A CORRIDOR OF INCREASED INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP SHIFTS EASTWARD MORE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MIGRATES FURTHER EAST. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES FURTHER EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WHILE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY EVEN AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 20C ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO
THE 80S(F) THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 90F STILL POSSIBLE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
FRIDAY AS A NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE
TROUGH. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
KANSAS AS A RESULT WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 20C NEAR
THE I-70 CORRIDOR. HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOMEWHAT INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITIONS
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, EVEN THOUGH A CELLING IN THE
OVC120 RANGE WILL DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP, WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE AT KGCK
AND KHYS. VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN GOOD IN THE RAIN, AND CIGS WILL BE
IN THE MID LEVEL RANGE OF OVC100.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  92  68  87 /  30  60  50  50
GCK  67  90  66  85 /  50  40  50  50
EHA  66  89  64  84 /  50  40  50  50
LBL  68  92  67  87 /  30  40  50  50
HYS  68  91  68  86 /  50  60  60  50
P28  73  96  71  89 /  10  30  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURKE


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