000
FXUS63 KDDC 090518
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1118 PM CST Sun Dec 8 2013

...Updated for the aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

Water vapor imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate an upper
level shortwave ejecting eastward out of the southern Rockies.
Meanwhile, a secondary upper level impulse is dropping southward
across the northern Rockies of Idaho and western Montana. Near the
surface, an area of low pressure is pushing southeast across
southern Colorado. Some low level moisture has moved back north
into western Kansas with surface dewpoints up into the lower to
mid teens(F) across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

Relatively dry conditions will continue across central and southwest
Kansas tonight as the upper level shortwave now exiting the southern
Rockies into the Western High Plains, lifts northeast into the Great
Lakes Region. Meanwhile, short range models indicate the upper level
shortwave across the northern Rockies dropping further south into
the Four Corners Region tonight, then turning east across the
southern Rockies Monday. As the system approaches Monday, favorable
dynamics aloft, including a +130kt jet and increased divergence,
will help set the stage for possible light snow development across
the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma where mid/upper level
moisture is projected to increase. Although the bulk of any snow
fall is expected to remain to our south, the potential exists for
light snow to reach the extreme southern portions of southwest and
south central Kansas with any accumulations generally less than an
inch.

Temperatures will remain well below normal tonight as a weak cold
front pushes through western Kansas by this evening reinforcing the
cold air mass locked in across the Western High Plains. Expect lows
back down into the single digits(F) to near 10F tonight as a result.
Similar high temperatures are likely going into Monday as well with
little change to the overall air mass. Look for highs well up into
the teens(F) to the possibly the lower 20s(F) across south central
Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

The 12z runs of the GFS, ECMWF and GEM all continue to show the
upper level flow becoming less amplified through the early part of
this week as the deep polar vortex over Hudson Bay migrates east
off the coast of Newfoundland. The increasingly zonal flow pattern
and trend toward downslope flow across the western High Plains will
allow warmer air to advect back into western Kansas through the mid
to latter part of the week. Temperatures will climb back closer to
normal values for the first half of December.

A shortwave trough moving southeast into the central part of the
country on Tuesday night will push a cold front south across western
Kansas by Wednesday morning. This system will not have much moisture
to work with so no precipitation is expected. Ridging over the
northern Rockies will push east toward the northern plains later in
the week with another shortwave trough on its heels. A disturbance
over far northwest Mexico will get kicked eastward toward the
southern plains by Friday. The models show precipitation developing
across the southern plains northward into Kansas Thursday night into
Friday ahead of this wave. Obviously still some uncertainty with
this system but the models keep the bulk of this to the east of
south central Kansas. Will continue the dry forecast through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

Cold high pressure will rule this TAF forecast. Light and variable
winds will prevail through the 24 hour period, with a southerly
direction returning by late Sunday afternoon. A little light fog
may develop just around sunrise in the KDDC and KHYS sites.  A
northwest to westerly flow aloft will bring a few high, and
perhaps a few mid level, clouds passing throughout today. Overall,
VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC   5  20   3  37 /   0  10   0   0
GCK   3  20   2  35 /   0  10   0   0
EHA   5  20   4  36 /   0  20   0   0
LBL   5  20   4  38 /   0  20   0   0
HYS   3  20   5  34 /  10   0   0   0
P28  10  23   8  37 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Burke