000
FXUS63 KDDC 131834
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
134 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2014

...Updated short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

Gusty south to southwest had developed earlier this afternoon as
a surface trough of low pressure deepens along the lee of the
Rockies. If not already these winds will range from 15 to 25 mph
range by late day. In addition relative humidities will range from
10 to 15 percent. Current red flag warning still look on track so
will continue this warning through 7 pm.

An upper level disturbance, which was located over northern Idaho
at 12z Thursday, will move out of the Rockies and out into the
Western High Plains early tonight. As this system crosses into the
the High Plains a surface trough of low pressure will move east
across western Kansas and a cold front will move south across
Nebraska. The winds across western Kansas will decrease to around
10kts and veer to the west northwest as this surface boundary
passes early this evening. Gusty North winds will then develop
during the early morning hours as a cold front moves across
western Kansas. Skies early tonight will be mostly clear, however
after midnight mid to high level moisture will begin to increase
across western Kansas. Given clear skies early along with a period
of decreasing winds have favored the new, slightly cooler, MAV/MET
guidance. Lows tonight are expected to range from the lower 30s in
west central Kansas to near 40 in south central Kansas.

High pressure a the surface will build into western Kansas by
Friday afternoon and 850mb temperatures are expected to cool into
the 5c to near 8c range by 00z Saturday. 12z NAM and 12z GFS were
both in decent agreement with increasing moisture in the 600mb to
400mb level during the early morning hours as a 500mb deformation
zone moves slowly into southwest Kansas. Based on the expected
cloud cover early Friday and 850mb temperatures at 00z Saturday
will trend highs Friday afternoon towards what the cooler 850mb
mix down temperature which suggested highs will range from the
upper 50s in west central Kansas to the mid 60s near the Oklahoma
border in south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

The 00z medium range models show a progressive westerly upper level
flow pattern over North America through the extended period. An
upper level low pressure system over central California that is
somewhat removed from the main westerly flow will get ejected
eastward toward the southern plains this weekend as shortwave
troughs move east out of the northern Rockies. Much of the energy
from this first wave will pass to the south of western Kansas but a
second shortwave trough will dive out of the Pacific Northwest
southward along the Front range of Colorado late Saturday into
Saturday night. Precipitation chances do not look overly significant
with this wave and the current forecast for slight chance to chance
pops look reasonable. The models do not indicate a significant cold
air intrusion into the central High Plains with this wave but model
sounding profiles show some potential for light snow before
precipitation chances diminish by Sunday morning.

Upper level ridging will occur over the central High Plains on
Sunday into Monday before another shortwave trough moves out across
the northern part of the country on Tuesday. The ECMWF shows this
next wave digging farther south through the central Plains than the
GFS and GEM models. At the least, there will be a brief cool down
through midweek. Will keep the forecast dry for now through Day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

Gusty southwest winds will increase to around 15kts this
afternoon as a surface trough of low pressure deepens along the
lee of the Rockies. The winds will then decrease and veer more to
the west northwest overnight a this surface trough of low pressure
will then moves across southwest Kansas. VFR conditions are
expected over the next 24 hours given that BUFR soundings indicate
only mid to high level moisture will precede an upper level
disturbance as it crosses the central high plains during the
overnight hours.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  36  61  36  63 /   0  10   0  10
GCK  35  60  34  62 /   0  10   0  10
EHA  39  59  36  62 /   0  10   0  20
LBL  37  60  35  63 /   0  10   0  10
HYS  36  61  35  62 /   0   0   0  10
P28  40  65  37  64 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Burgert