000
FXUS63 KDDC 112358
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
558 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2013

..Updated for aviation discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

A cold longwave trough gripped much of eastern North America.  Mid
and lower tropospheric temperatures were very cold across much of
the eastern CONUS. While several synoptic baroclinic zones could be
identified from the Gulf Coast states through the Midwest region,
the baroclinic zones were not very frontogenetic with uniform
west-southwest winds in the highly zonal pattern. There was a minor
shortwave trough at 500mb moving through the Lower Great Lakes
region...but this did not move the needle much in terms of mid level
frontogenesis and overall sensible weather impacts.  Across Kansas,
a reinforcing shot of cold air moved into the state late yesterday,
but the true arctic air remained well north into the eastern
Dakotas, Minnesota and northern Iowa (at least at 850mb). Some of
this arctic air at the surface had reached southeastern Nebraska,
which was not modifying much given the snowpack encompassing much of
eastern and southern Nebraska.  The snowpack reached as far south as
the Highway 24 corridor of north-central Kansas and between Highway
24 and 36 across northeastern Kansas.  There was no remaining
snowpack across the southwest Kansas region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013

The short term forecast will be quiet tonight and Thursday. The
surface high which prevailed across Kansas today will continue to
move southeast tonight. The large surface high will extend from
Texas to the lower Ohio Valley by midday Thursday and a slight
pressure gradient will exist across southwestern Kansas.  The
resulting south-southwest wind will range from 11 to 15 knots. The
surface trajectories will be from the surface high and this is shown
well in the NAM Bufr soundings as rather shallow mixing heights
Thursday afternoon.  The 850-750mb layer will be warming nicely
thanks to the downslope off the higher terrain. NAM Bufr sounding
for DDC valid mid-afternoon shows mixing up to about 890mb, which is
only about 300 to 400m AGL. The thinking is that temperatures should
warm to about 43 to 46F across most of the area, but anything warmer
than that appears rather unlikely, and did take down the previous
forecast about a degree or two across the board. There should be
abundant sunshine, so that will definitely make it feel warmer than
what we have seen recently.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013

Medium range models indicate an upper level shortwave trough
shifting east out of the Desert Southwest into the South Plains of
Texas Friday bringing the possibility for precip across east Texas
up through the central plains of Oklahoma and Kansas. However, the
best chance for precip will likely remain off to our east and
southeast with limited available moisture expected across much
of western Kansas as an attendant cold front moves through the
region. A west to northwesterly flow aloft will then set up across
the Western High Plains late this weekend into next week. However,
drier conditions will persist across western Kansas, generally due
to a lack of low/mid level moisture and a weaker flow aloft.

Temperatures may be a challenge Friday as a cold front is projected
to push through western Kansas by mid to late afternoon. With a
similar air mass from Thursday still in place ahead of the
approaching front going into Friday, highs are expected to climb
well up into the 40s(F) across south central Kansas and along
the Oklahoma border in southwest Kansas. Temperatures may struggle
to reach 40F across central Kansas where the front is expected to
reach by mid day. Colder temperatures are likely Saturday as cold
air filters southward into western Kansas in wake of the frontal
passage Friday. The GFS/ECMWF show a pool of H85 temperatures just
below 0C spreading southward across western Kansas and into
Oklahoma. Even with decreasing cloud cover expected during the
day, highs are likely to reach only the 30s(F) across central
Kansas with the lower 40s(F) still a possibility in extreme
southwest Kansas. Temperatures will rebound Sunday and through
the early part of next week as the flow aloft becomes more
northwesterly and the colder arctic air remains blocked off
to the north.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013

A weak surface trough will remain in the lee of the Rockies
through the period, resulting in weak south to southwest winds,
mostly 10 kts or less. VFR conditions will prevail in the absence
of low level moisture.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  14  46  23  46 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  14  46  20  46 /   0   0  10  10
EHA  19  51  22  47 /   0   0  10  10
LBL  15  48  29  47 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  13  45  21  44 /   0   0  10  10
P28  15  46  24  45 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Umscheid
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Finch