000
FXUS63 KDDC 291709
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1109 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 12Z THURSDAY A NORTHWEST FLOW WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW A 500MB TROUGH EXTENDED
FROM MINNESOTA TO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
AT THE 850MB LEVEL A BAROCLINIC ZONE WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. NORMAN HAD A 850MB TEMPERATURE OF +14C, DOGE
CITY REPORTED +5, AND NORTH PLATTE AND TOPEKA AT 12Z THURSDAY
REPORTED -5C. 850MB WIND SPEEDS ACROSS KANSAS AND NEBRASKA WERE
BETWEEN 30 AND 45 KNOTS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM AN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO CENTRAL TEXAS AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NORTH
OF THIS FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO EASTERN WYOMING.
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLIER THIS MORNING A 500MB
RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO IDAHO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ABOVE THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THEN SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
NORTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN KANSAS TODAY SHIFTING TO MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 50
DEGREES WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

EARLY ON SATURDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE ALOFT, A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE WILL FORM
FROM THE 4-CORNERS AREA NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  THIS
COMBINATION SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO OUR FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, WITH LIKELY POPS IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES
BY MIDNIGHT. THE LOWER LAYERS WILL COOL DOWN AS THE COLD FRONT
PLUNGES THROUGH TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING.  THEREFORE,
STARTING AROUND 06Z OR MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, THE WEATHER TYPE
WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW, WITH LIKELY POPS STILL
CONTINUING IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE LIKELY POPS WILL SHIFT OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST COLD/WARM ENOUGH
FOR A RAIN OR SNOW MIXTURE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TO
THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT, PERHAPS BRINGING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION. POPS WILL LOWER INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT
RANGE BY 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT, AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
WELL SOUTH AND THIS EVENT WILL CHANGE INTO AN OVERRUNNING EVENT.
OVERALL THROUGH THE PRECIPITATION EVENT, I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION, DUE PRIMARILY TO THE RAIN EVENT OCCURRING FIRST.

WE WILL RETURN TO A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY, BUT WITH THE
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL HAVING A GRIP ON SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL GO THROUGH A VERY SLOW WARM UP THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH MAX TEMPERATURES RISING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S ON SUNDAY TO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY WEDNESDAY.  NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A MINOR WAVE ALOFT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS, AND MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW FLAKES TO WESTERN KANSAS. THURSDAY WILL COOL DOWN A
BIT, WITH LOWER TO MID 40S FOR HIGHS IN OUR EAST, BUT REACHING AS
HIGH INTO THE MID 50S IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST NEAR ELKHART.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AT AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BACK
INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE BETWEEN 21Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO WESTERN
KANSAS. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL BELOW 10 KNOTS BY 06Z FRIDAY AND
THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BY DAYBREAK AS AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE MOVES FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA TO
CENTRAL KANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT
GIVEN THAT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED THE MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 700MB LEVEL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  27  47  33 /   0   0   0  70
GCK  50  28  47  33 /   0   0   0  60
EHA  50  32  44  33 /   0   0   0  60
LBL  52  30  44  33 /   0   0   0  70
HYS  47  25  47  33 /   0   0   0  70
P28  52  26  46  34 /   0   0   0  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT