Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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323
FXUS63 KDDC 300518
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1218 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Dynamic storm system affecting the area at this time, with the
initial warm conveyor belt bringing rain across most of the area.
A better defined banded region of snow was ongoing earlier across
the western counties which likely accounted for up to a third of
the overall remaining snowfall expected for the storm duration
through midday Sunday. The initial snow was wet; model liquid to
snow ratios indicated only on the order of about 6 or 7 to 1, and
still local amounts of 4 to 7 inches fell near Scott city/Ulysses.
The overall rain snow line heading into tonight is not expected
to shift much either but enough for locations like Trego and Dodge
City to get in on some snowfall. The NAM/WRF holds the area of
good mid level frontogenetic forcing very near the KS/CO line,
with little movement eastward though the night. The other issue
will be the strong gradient winds developing sustained at 30 mph
or higher from the north. The blowing and drifting may be
lessened somewhat from the very low snow ratios and wet snow on
the ground. Given the nature of the low ratio, heavy wet snow it
is not clear if 3 hours of 1/4 mile or less visibility will be
met, required to go with Blizzard warning. The far southeast
counties likely will just see rain overnight in the isentropic
lift, as the models indicated low probability of cloud ice,
required for dendrite formation.

Sunday the system will be winding down in the morning, as winds may
pick up in the subsident backside of the exiting system. Models have
temperatures moving very little if at all into Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Slow moderation into the 60s by mid to late week. Rain chances
return around midweek as another wave in the broad cyclonic flow
drops out of the northern Rockies into west Texas by Wednesday
night. Model indicate a ridge building in over the Plains states
after that heading into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

Next round of widespread rain and snow will spread across western
Kansas overnight as an upper low lifts northeast across the Texas
Panhandle. IFR ceilings with MVFR visibilities due to rain or
snow can be expected from this precipitation overnight and early
Sunday. Garden City will have the best chance for significant
snowfall between 9z to 21z Sunday with snow accumulations over
this time frame being 6 to 10 inches. With this heavier snowfall
visibilities may also be reduced to less than one mile at times.
At Dodge City and Hays snowfall of 2-5 inches will be possible
depending on when the rain changes over to snow. Time frame for
this snowfall is also between 9z and 21z Sunday for Dodge City,
Hays will be 12Z Sunday through 00z Monday.

Gusty north winds near 25 knots will increase to around 30 knots
between 12z and 15z Sunday and then continue through the
remainder of the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  32  37  33  61 / 100 100  20   0
GCK  31  37  30  54 / 100 100  20   0
EHA  30  40  31  56 / 100  90   0   0
LBL  31  41  31  62 / 100 100  10   0
HYS  32  36  34  59 / 100 100  50   0
P28  38  44  36  68 / 100  80  20   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ031-
045-064-077-078-086-087.

Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ030-043-044-061>063-074>076-084-085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert



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