Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 150515
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1215 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

WV IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE,
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME, FAIRLY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH NO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. POST-FRONTAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE AND PROFILES
THEMSELVES ARE NOT THAT FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THINK THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING QPF BECAUSE THEY ARE PICKING UP ON THE STRATUS BEHIND THE
FRONT. HAVE SEEN THIS BEFORE WITH THERE IS 0.01" WHERE THE MODEL IS
GENERATING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FORECAST COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITIES ARE NOT
THAT IMPRESSIVE EITHER, SO WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF MORE AREAS JUST
SAW CLOUDS THAN ANY PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY TIGHT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE NORTHWEST TO
MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GET
PUSHED EAST AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC.

ON MONDAY NIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY`S
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MOIST LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG AND
POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA GIVEN THAT LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT. TUESDAY
SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS A LEE SIDE
TROUGH DEVELOPS AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE WARMING
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING TOWARD CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THAT AREA AND LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES. WILL CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR FOR THIS BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.

THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS OF AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO COME OUT LATER IN THE WEEK. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING SOMETHING OF AN ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK
WITH THE UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO CALIFORNIA. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE WAVE MOVES OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE DRAGGING A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AROUND NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR ON THIS AND LIKELY WILL BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
STRATUS IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR LEVELS IN THE VICINITY OF ALL TAF
SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL TURN NORTHERLY 15 TO 25KT LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  60  71  57  80 /   0  20  10  10
GCK  59  66  56  81 /   0  20  10  10
EHA  62  67  58  83 /   0  20  10  10
LBL  62  76  59  81 /   0  20  10  10
HYS  59  67  52  74 /  20  20  10  10
P28  64  84  59  80 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


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