Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 290845
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
345 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A CHALLENGING FORECAST PERIOD LIES AHEAD FOR THE SHORT TERM AS A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE, AND CHANCES  FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST  AT LEAST
UNTIL THE WEEKEND. A WEAK PV ANOMALY/SHORTWAVE SIGNAL IS MOVING
THROUGH THE  CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT,
ENHANCING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PANHANDLES INTO EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS MORNING. THE RELATIVE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
SHEAR, AND WEAK TO MODERATE CAPES SHOULD RELEGATE THE STORM
INTENSITIES  WELL BELOW ANY SEVERE LEVELS. THE RELATIVE LAYER
MOISTURE/PWATS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE OT AT TIMES LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS, AND THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED
AREAS COVERAGE AND AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL  STORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG AN UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN IN RECENT DAYS, AS WELL AS A
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT INT HE SURFACE DEW POINT MAKING THE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES MORE COMFORTABLE. HIGHS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
SHOULD NOR EXCEED THE 80S.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND GOING
FORWARD. HOWEVER THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE STILL NOT EXCEEDING
SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGY.  THE SYNOPTIC FLOW SUPPORTS GENERAL; NORTHWEST
SUBSIDENT FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS FROM THE WEEKEND FORWARD AS
THE UPPER HIGH STRENTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST KANSAS MAY BECOME SPLIT BETWEEN THE
WEAK FLOW COLORADO DAILY CONVECTION AND THE BETTER SUITED IMPULSE
DRIVEN MCS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL TRENDS
FOR CONVECTIVE CHANCES AT TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY STORM
CHANCES LOOK MOST LIKELY AT DDC AND GCK ALTHOUGH NOT ABSOLUTE AS THE
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE WIDELY SCATTERED. GENERALLY LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND BEHIND THE SURFACE FLOW SHOULD CHARACTERIZE THE
PREVAILING SURFACE WIND CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  64  86  65 /  50  40  30  30
GCK  83  63  86  64 /  40  40  30  30
EHA  81  65  86  65 /  50  50  30  30
LBL  83  66  87  67 /  60  50  30  30
HYS  85  63  86  64 /  10  30  20  20
P28  88  67  88  67 /  40  50  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...RUSSELL


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