Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 211959
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
259 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRANSITIONING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND FURTHER EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY. ALONG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
FROM NEBRASKA SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN KANSAS WILL REINFORCE A COOLER
AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT. EXPECT LOWS WELL
DOWN INTO THE 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS
MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST OUT OF EASTERN KANSAS. THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANCE TO H85 TEMPERATURES WITH THE MID
TEENS(C) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE UPPER TEENS(C) IN EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 70S(F) TO NEAR 80F
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

THIS EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A NUMBER OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS PASSING OVER THE PLAINS.  ON TUESDAY, THE FIRST WAVE WILL
BE CROSSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND A BROAD TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SOUTH THROUGH KANSAS. THE CAPE SHOWING FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA IS IN THE 1500 J/KG
LEVEL, PER THE NAM AND GFS.  THUS SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND THE CURRENT HWO MENTIONS UP TO QUARTER-SIZE HAIL,
WHICH SEEMS ABOUT APPROPRIATE.  ON TUESDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, THERE WILL BE A WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.  THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE STORMS AND AGAIN
THERE BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HAIL PRODUCERS TUESDAY EVENING, WITH
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORM TO OUR WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY, AND A NARROW, AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LOW SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS AND INTO WEST TEXAS. A SURFACE LEE SIDE
TROUGH WILL FORM BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER.  THE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE A BIT LOWER,
AND FOR NOW I DO NOT THINK THE SEVERITY LEVEL WILL BE AS HIGH AS
IT WILL BE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL EXTEND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN
2/3RD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MORE LIMITED THURSDAY NIGHT, AND WITH THE UPPER TROUGH LESS
INTENSE, POPS WILL BE ONLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE LOWER LAYERS WILL DRY OUT SOME, AND
THUS FRI AND SAT SHOULD BOTH BE DRY OR PRECIP-FREE.  THE ECMWF
MODEL IS SHOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN OUR WEST, BUT THAT
SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR NO RAIN.

HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM 80F TO 85F DEGREES, AND LOWS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF
NEBRASKA INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT WHILE TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PUSHES FURTHER OFF TO THE EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  80  57  80 /   0  10  40  40
GCK  53  78  56  82 /   0  20  30  30
EHA  55  78  58  84 /   0  30  40  20
LBL  53  80  58  84 /   0  20  30  30
HYS  50  78  55  78 /   0  10  50  50
P28  52  80  59  79 /   0   0  40  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON


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