Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KDDC 300625
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
125 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING FROM EASTERN COLORADO AT 00Z
TUESDAY INTO NEBRASKA BY 12Z TUESDAY. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IN
THE KINSLEY, STAFFORD, PRATT OR EVEN MEDICINE LODGE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO END BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z BASED ON LATEST HRRR AND RAP.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND
ADJUST TIMING AS NEEDED. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF FAR
WESTERN KANSAS GIVEN THE 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS FROM 00Z TUESDAY
TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. FURTHER EAST/SOUTHEAST NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM NORTHERN
UTAH INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY MID DAY WHICH STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP. AS THIS NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS EARLY TONIGHT THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY ALONG AND EAST
OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY HAYS TO
MEADE. EAST OF THIS AXIS LATE TODAY THE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, CAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1000 TO
1500 J/KG, AND 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS AT 21Z
TUESDAY AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THIS IF STORMS DO DEVELOP LATE
TODAY A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN
HAZARD AT THIS TIME WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND 3 AM. A COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50 TO 55
DEGREE RANGE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY
PATCH FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

STARTING WITH TUESDAY NIGHT, THE FIRST TROUGH WILL BE GOING EAST
THROUGH THE AREA, TAKING THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN COUNTIES,
EXITING THERE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL BE
ENTERING FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, GIVING A
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS FIRST IN OUR EASTERN ZONES NEAR HAYS,
SAINT JOHN AND MEDICINE LODGE, WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOWLY MIGRATING THROUGH TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, RAINSHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO THE 50 PERCENT CHANCE
RANGE, AND INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES SUCH AS MORTON, MEADE AND COLDWATER COUNTIES. NOT
TOO MUCH RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED. THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL
SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY, BRINGING PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE RECENT FALL PERIOD TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S IN THE SCOTT CITY TO WAKEENEY AREAS,
AND WILL BE AROUND 70F DEGREES ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

BEYOND THURSDAY, THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH
MONDAY. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, EITHER. FRIDAY
WILL HAVE COOL MODERATING TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S, BUT THEN SHOULD INCREASE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S RANGE
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS, AS WELL AS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. IN BETWEEN, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS
WILL BE COOL, WITH MINS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BASED ON BUFR
SOUNDINGS, HRRR, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE CLOUD BASED MAY
BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE MVFR CATAGORY AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS PASS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE BRIEFLY, MAINLY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z
TUESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR, NAM, AND RAP THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE LIKELY IN THE GCK AREA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z, DDC BETWEEN
08Z AND 10Z, AND HYS FROM 09Z TO 12Z. THE PREVAILING WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND OUTSIDE THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT
AROUND 10 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OUTSIDE THESE
STORMS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
IN THE DAY. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS PASSES THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE STRONGER WINDS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE HAYS AND
DODGE CITY AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  57  81  52 /  20  20  20  30
GCK  82  54  78  49 /  10  10  30  40
EHA  80  51  78  49 /  10  10  10  30
LBL  84  53  80  51 /  10  10  10  30
HYS  81  58  77  52 /  40  20  40  50
P28  85  62  86  59 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.