Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 131715
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1115 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

WV imagery indicates a northwesterly flow aloft prevailing across
the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, a weak upper level shortwave
trough is moving eastward across the Pacific Northwest. Near the
surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is developing across
eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Areal expansion of stratus will be the main forecast challenge
heading through the morning hours, and should have a significant
impact of temperature trends through the day across the far north.
Some southeastward development of freezing fog is not out of the
question this morning, however the probability for freezing drizzle
in these areas of stratus is not looking quite as probable at this
time. A large temperatures gradient is expected this afternoon in
excess of 30 degrees from the Elkhart area which should be in the
60s...to Hays where highs will not likely exceed the 30s. A
shortwave now moving into the northern Rockies will affect the
northern and central high plains region by the overnight, having
very little impact on western Kansas other than pushing a cold
front/wind shift across the region before Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

Models have been consistent with a followup/secondary vort lobe
rotating through a bit farther south about 24 hours later which
will improve chances for rain or snow late Sunday night into very
early Monday morning. The remainder of the forecast period will
see rising thicknesses and more northwest flow aloft, resulting in
a warming trend through at least Thursday. Could not rule out
another 80 degree reading by Thursday as a warm dry downslope
pattern once again develops and possibly critical fire weather
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Sunday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MVFR cigs will linger in the vicinity of KGCK through early this
afternoon as a stratus deck slowly erodes away. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Sunday
morning. Gusty southerly winds around 20 to 30kt will persist
through late this afternoon as a lee side trough of low pressure
strengthens across eastern Colorado. The winds will subside below
20kt this evening with the loss of daytime heating then turn
northerly 10 to 20kt early Sunday morning as a weak cold front
moves through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  30  56  31 /   0   0  10  80
GCK  52  30  57  30 /   0   0  10  80
EHA  68  35  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  59  32  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  39  27  52  31 /  10   0  10  80
P28  44  32  58  33 /   0   0  10  80

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson


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