Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Reduced high temperatures across the eastern 1/2 of the CWA this
afternoon, with widespread stratus expected to hold firm. Even
these new lower temperatures may be optimistic.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Fairly dry conditions are expected today as short range models indicate
a weak upper level ridge of high pressure shifting slowly eastward
across the Western High Plains into the Central Plains. A generally
weak westerly flow aloft and drier air in the lower/mid levels will
limit precip chances today. There is a slight chance for drizzle/light
rain late tonight as a southeasterly upslope flow begins to draw some
moisture back into the region while a southwesterly flow aloft begins
to intensify downstream of an approaching upper level trough. Enough
lift will be present to support the potential for light, but less than
appreciable precip across central and possibly portions of west central
and southwest Kansas.

A warming trend will initiate across west central and southwest Kansas
today as surface high pressure shifts eastward across the Great Lakes,
creating more of a southeasterly upslope flow across western Kansas
while lee side troughing begins to take hold across eastern Colorado.
This will set up a south to southeasterly flow across far western Kansas,
and in turn, draw slightly warmer into the region with H85 temperatures
well up into the teens(C). Cooler air will prevail across central Kansas.
Look for highs only up into the 50s(F) in central Kansas this afternoon
with the mid to upper 60s(F) possible in extreme southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Chances for precip pick up late Thursday as medium range models indicate
a strong upper level trough of low pressure pushing eastward across
the Four Corners Region early in the period creating an increasingly
difluent southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Meanwhile,
a south to southeasterly flow will persist across the high plains as
a developing surface low deepens lee of the Rockies. This will draw
moisture up into central and portions of southwest Kansas ahead of
a sharpening dryline attendant to the surface low in eastern Colorado.
Dynamic support aloft will become more favorable as the southwest flow
inensifies across the panhandles of Texas/Oklahoma into western Kansas
downstream of the approaching trough axis. Based on timing of the upper
level system and a strong afternoon cap, thunderstorms will be possible
along and ahead of the dryline more into Thursday evening as it begins
to edge slowly eastward. There is growing confidence for at least
marginally severe storms with a axis of instability building just east
of the dryline with MLCAPE values upward of 1,000 J/Kg, not to mention
short fuse model soundings showing 0-6km shear values of 50 to 60kt.
This is sufficient enough to support potential supercells with any
thunderstorm development once the erosion of the cap occurs. Drier
conditions remain likely over the weekend as the strong upper level
system pushes further eastward into the Ohio River Valley while upper
level ridging moves across the Intermountain West into the Western
High Plains.

A deepening surface low across eastern Colorado will create a strong
southerly flow across western Kansas enhancing warm air advection into
the area, pushing H85 temperatures into the upper teens(C) across central
Kansas to the lower 20s(C) closer to the Colorado border. Expect highs
generally up into the lower to mid 80s(F) Thursday afternoon. Cooler
temperatures return Friday as a cold front begins pushing through western
Kansas allowing for colder air to begin filtering southward into the
area. Based on the projected timing of the frontal passage, a widespread
range of highs are likely with temperatures ranging from only the 50s(F)
in west central Kansas to the 70s(F) in south central Kansas. More
seasonal temperatures can be expected to kick of the weekend Saturday
as a much cooler air mass settles in across the high plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Widespread MVFR stratus will continue into this evening.
Ceilings may improve briefly at GCK for several hours late this
afternoon, before returning tonight, but confidence is low. East
winds will become SE and increase to 15-25 kts through evening.
High confidence that flight categories will degrade at all
airports after 06z Thursday, as moisture increases in upslope
flow. LIFR cigs status cigs, and reduced vis in BR/FG/DZ expected
06-12z Thursday. Only included LLWS for GCK around 09z Thursday.
Cigs and vis will improve after 15z Thursday. Also after
15z Thursday, strong south winds will impact aviation with gusts
near 40 kts expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  46  81  51 /  10  20  20  40
GCK  58  45  82  47 /   0  10  30  60
EHA  69  46  82  44 /  10  10  20  50
LBL  65  45  82  47 /  10  10  30  60
HYS  52  45  80  54 /  10  20  20  30
P28  57  49  81  55 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Turner


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