Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271911
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
111 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

...updated discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 111 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

For tonight, relatively quite weather is expected. There will be downslope
southwest wind all night, so low temperatures across the southern zones
might be relatively mild - mid 40s. To the northwest, cooler and drier
air will result in more typical lows - upper 20s to lower 30s.

For tomorrow, a strong cold front traverse the region from the morning
into the early afternoon hours. There will be a large temperature gradient
in highs tomorrow with 50s to the north and 70s to the south. There
are elevated fire weather concerns, which is discussed below.

For precipitation, not looking very impressive with a progressive trof
moving through and much drier air advecting in from the NW. The low
chance pops look good for now. There will be a strong baroclinic zone
moving through and both the global and mesoscale models do show some
widely scattered rain showers developing post-frontal in the early
afternoon to evening hours. The NMMB almost looks convective, but mid-
level lapse rates are not that steep. Most of the precipitation should
be liquid. If there is any snow, it would be very light and the dendritic
growth zone quickly becomes unsaturated.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 111 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Much cooler temperatures will prevail for Wednesday - 50s area
wide. Winds will remain on the breeze side. There might be a small area
of significant (RFW) fire weather hazard even with the cooler
temperatures but as the dewpoints continue to drop and winds
remain elevated. A moderation of temperatures is expected to close
out the business week as dry air prevails and weak warm air
advection eventually ensues. Next weekend is looking pleasant with
70s as stronger downslope and WAA develops upstream of a synoptic
trof to the northwest. Another strong cold front is possible just
outside the long term forecast domain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

VFR expected through TAF pd. Watching low stratus, but current trends
suggest that could remain east of the KHYS terminal through the rest
of late morning. Some mid level clouds will move in with a fropa tomorrow.
Fropa for KHYS and KGCK with KDDC remaining at the very end of the
TAF pd. Any post-frontal precipitation is forecast outside the TAF
forecast domain. N winds will increase behind front 13-23 kt.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 111 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

There is somewhat of a fire weather concern for the next several days.
However, discussing only today and tomorrow. The lowest relative humidities
are prevailing across the Panhandles. Across far SW KS, humidities
are falling and will let the current RFW ride out to exp. For tomorrow,
there will be quite the temperature gradient in the downslope warmed
air ahead of the front. Highs in the 70s are forecast by the ARW/EC/GFS.
Even taking higher temps, lower dewpoints, and stronger winds, do not
have enough confidence to go with an RFW for tomorrow. Yes, fire weather
conditions will certainly be high end elevated for the counties bordering
Oklahoma. Will let the mid shift take a look at 00Z NWP data as uncertainty
is just too high attm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  44  58  28 /   0   0  20  40
GCK  66  36  52  25 /   0   0  20  40
EHA  68  43  65  25 /   0   0  20  20
LBL  70  41  70  27 /   0   0  20  20
HYS  63  36  53  28 /   0   0  20  30
P28  65  46  74  33 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ this evening for
KSZ061-074-075-084>086.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden
FIRE WEATHER...Sugden


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