Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 011808
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
108 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Short range models indicate a general westerly flow aloft
prevailing across the Western High Plains tonight as upper level
ridging remains predominate across the Desert Southwest. Although
the flow aloft will remain fairly weak across southwest and south
central Kansas, the NAM and GFS do show a modest +60kt jet core
streaming east out of the Colorado Rockies into southern Nebraska
and northern portions of Kansas with a right exit region setting
up across northwest and north central Kansas late tonight. As a
low level jet develops generally across southwest and south
central Kansas overnight, a few isolated thunderstorms will be
possible across central and eastern portions of southwest Kansas
where an H7 baroclinic zone is expected to reside, not to mention
marginal instability present with MUCAPE values in excess of 500
J/KG. Drier conditions will take hold across much of central and
western Kansas Wednesday as upper level ridging builds northward
across the Central Plains.

Little change is expected to low temperatures tonight as a prevailing
low level southerly flow continues to reinforce the warmer air
mass in place across the high plains of western Kansas. Look for
lows down into the 70s(F) across south central Kansas with a few
upper 60s(F) possible in west central Kansas. Highs are expected
well up into the 90s(F) Wednesday afternoon as southerlies persist.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 446 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

Heading into the extended period, the pattern continues to support
just about 1 standard deviation warmer than normal for high
temperature. Even warmer overnight lows are indicated by the gfs mos
numbers, with upper 60s common through next Tuesday, September 8.
Both the GFS and the ECMWF tend to flatten the upper ridge, with
faster flow and better baroclinicity over the Northern Plains and
Nebraska. This setup should be favorable for several rounds of
convective activity of our area, as well as to more localized
shortwave energy aiding small scale lift over western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Wednesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Wednesday
morning. Southerly winds of around 15 to 25kt will persist across
central and portions of southwest Kansas through early this evening
then subside somewhat tonight with the loss of daytime heating as
a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored near and along
the Colorado border.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  95  68  95 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  67  96  66  96 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  67  95  66  95 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  67  96  67  96 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  68  97  69  97 /  20  10  10  20
P28  70  96  70  95 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson


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