Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 060855
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
255 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2013
...UPDATED SHORT TERM...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013
Arctic air with temperatures at the 850 mb level chart around -25
degrees C was noted across the northern Plains, which will be our
source region air for western Kansas in the near term. The air
across Nebraska and South Dakota is also very dry with surface dew
points in the negative 10 to negative 20 F range. Farther south
across central Kansas, weak banded returns of weakly forced snow or
flurries continued in pockets through the overnight, mainly east of
the highway 283 corridor. The back edge of an extensive mid level
cloud area was noted from central Nebraska into northeast Colorado.
Surface winds varied between 5 and 10 knots, although winds were
light near the Colorado line.
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013
Areas of flurries will still be possible early this morning across
central Kansas , but no accumulation is expected with these very dry
pockets of very light snow. With expansive cloud cover, temperatures
may not be quite as cold as earlier forecast. As a result and given
current and projected wind speeds through the next 6 hours, true
wind chill advisory criteria will not likely to be met. We will
cancel the wind chill advisory for this morning. Still very cold
conditions are expected. Even colder temperatures are expected by
tonight as the cloud cover clears with the sinking drier air from
the north. Initally, light winds will be favored with the very dense
and dry air in place. However by the 10 to 15 UTC timeframe on
Saturday, an increase in surface wind speeds due to advancement of
the next system and increased surface pressure gradient should
plummet apparent temperatures possibly as cold as 20 below zero in
some areas briefly. In the meantime, some of our coldest maximum
daytime temperatures of the year should be experienced this afternoon as
intense cold advection causes temperatures to struggle through the
teens, even under clearing skies and eventually abundant insolation
in the afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST THU DEC 5 2013
Sfc high pressure will shift off to the east Friday night. This will
result in northeasterly winds eventually shifting southeast on the backside
of said departing high. A cold night is expected with minimums near
0F. Would not rule out a few negative values if skies clear more than
expected. Will have to watch for the potential for a wind chill advisory
during the overnight and morning hours.
Saturday and beyond:
The forecast becomes a bit more interesting during the weekend. An amplified
trof will eject from the central Rockies and out across the plains by
Sunday. This wave does have some upper level dynamics associated with
it (140-150 kt jet streak traverses across the forecast area of responsibility).
At the low levels, fairly intense warm air advection, 280-290 Kelvin
isentropic lift, and 850-600 mb increasing frontogenesis will lead
to snow late Saturday and into Sunday. The more enhanced area of said
parameters is forecast along and north of the 850 mb pressure perturbation
...basically the northern half of the forecast area. Models still show
low end snow advisory amounts along and north of highway 96. Even some
of the GEFS members show 2-4" of snow. There is huge bust potential
in temperatures for Sunday, should this snow/snow pack/cloud cover come
into fruition. The ECE shows a high of 8 for KDDC versus 22 from the
MEX. Will apply a slight bias towards the ECMWF solution versus the
GFS. Boise verification shows this guidance doing better than the
MEX with the current cold air mass over Kansas.
After Sunday, the forecast will remain precipitation free as isentropic
downglide and subsidence develops in the wake of the departing synoptic
trof. There is some question of when this cold air will be dislodged
and more of a low level 850 mb downslope plume will develop. The ECMWF
indicates this possibility of seeing "warmer" temperatures (i.e. above
freezing) by mid to late next week. The deterministic runs have been
fairly consistent over the last few days.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013
We will need to watch closely for any IFR ceiling development
into the early morning as the back edge of the mid level cloud
shield exits the region. Enough mid level cloud should remain
however to keep low stratus development to a minimum, but the HRRR
does hint at the possibility of localized IFR/LIFR stratus
development which is too low of a chance to include in prevailing
or tempo groups.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 15 0 16 8 / 10 0 30 40
GCK 15 -2 13 7 / 0 0 30 50
EHA 13 3 17 9 / 0 0 30 40
LBL 15 1 15 8 / 0 0 30 40
HYS 15 -5 15 6 / 10 0 30 50
P28 21 3 21 10 / 10 0 20 40
WIND CHILL ADVISORY from 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ to 11 AM CST /10 AM
MST/ Saturday FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>077-084>086.