Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 201730
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1230 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Strong 599 dm upper anticyclone centered over western Oklahoma at
midday. Sinking air everywhere with no clouds across the central
and southern plains. With an increase in thickness over Tuesday,
and excellent mixing from SW winds gusting near 30 mph, all
locales will be easily hotter than yesterday. All locations within
a few degrees of 100 at peak heating this afternoon. All pops are
zero this afternoon and tonight. May see a cumulus or two under
the subsident high this afternoon. Another LLJ overnight with SW
850 mb winds near 45 kts. Mixing will keep all locales in the 70s
Thursday morning.

Thursday...Hot! 598 dm upper high directly over SW KS, with full
searing sunshine and few if any clouds. 850mb thermal field near
30C will support afternoon maximum temperatures of 100-105 for all
counties. So it will be very hot everywhere. The challenge is
determining the amount of (or lack of) dewpoint mixing during the
afternoon, and where a heat advisory is required. Feel widespread
green vegetation will hold surface dewpoints in the lower 60s
during peak heating Thursday, which translates to a heat index of
105-108 across much of the eastern zones for 1-3 hours. In
coordination with WFOs GID/ICT have issued a heat advisory for the
eastern CWA. With no change in thickness or 850 mb temperatures,
allowed the advisory to continue through Friday afternoon. Kept
all zones dry Thursday with token pops (<15%), but GFS/NAM/ECMWF
all suggest isolated thunderstorms may approach the NW CWA
Thursday evening on the NW periphery of the upper high.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

For Thursday and Friday, the heat continues with 700 mb temps
warming a few degrees. This will allow mix down temps to be a few
degrees warmer and range from 100 to 104. However dewpoints below 65
are expected and likely not add to the heat index. Still these temps
will be very close to heat advisory especially for south central
sections where dewpoints will be the highest. Later shifts may need
evaluate how much dewpoints mix out, and if heat advisories will
be required for parts of the area.

For the weekend into early next week. Shortwave troughs will
traverse across the Plains with increasing chances for mainly late
afternoon and evening scattered thunderstorms. These waves will
allow the heat wave to break with highs back into the low to mid 90s
from Sunday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Jul 20 2016

VFR/SKC through Thursday, with only a few cumulus each afternoon.
SW winds gusting near 30 kts this afternoon, diminishing at
sunset. Consensus of short term models again develops widespread
low level wind shear starting around 06z, with 850 mb winds (LLJ)
peaking around 45 kts. No changes Thursday; SKC and no convection
with high pressure firmly in control. After 15z Thu, SW winds
15-25 kts at all airports.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  73 102  74 /   0   0  10  10
GCK 101  72 101  71 /   0   0  10  10
EHA 100  71 101  71 /   0   0  10  10
LBL 100  71 102  72 /   0   0   0  10
HYS 101  75 104  74 /   0   0  10  10
P28 100  75 105  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ030-
031-044>046-064>066-079>081-089-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Turner


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