Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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446
FXUS63 KDDC 131747
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1147 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 245 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

Another day of a large high temperature gradient across southwest Kansas.
Far SW Kansas near the Colorado border will see the warmest highs with
upper 40s expected. Across central Kansas, lingering cloud cover and
negative 850-hPa temperatures will only result in highs in the upper
teens to around 20F. Otherwise, early this morning, there could be
scattered flurries. Another shot of light snow/flurries is possible
Sunday morning by Hays as a disturbance moves in from Nebraska.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 245 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

A nice warm up is expected Sunday. Downslope warmed air will move across
western Kansas with 850-hPa temperatures peaking around 5C near the
Colorado border. Widespread 50s look reasonable for the warm up/highs.
This rebound in temperatures will be fleeting though. On Monday,
an Arctic front will move through and with temperatures crashing.
Did lower highs Monday to the lower to mid 20s, which could be too
warm. There is baroclinicity with this system, and some light
snow/flurries could be possible with insignificant accumulation
amounts. N to NE winds around 20 mph will create raw/blustery
conditions and wind chills Tuesday morning could be minus 10 or
even colder. Beyond this, slow moderation of the Arctic airmass
will occur for the rest of the extended period. Significant precip
chances look bleak attm.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

The main challenge in the aviation forecast will be at the HYS
terminal and how long MVFR/IFR ceiling will last and if
redevelopment occurs. For now, will be following trends of
scattering out of ceiling from southwest to northeast, reaching
HYS by mid to late afternoon. The latest model runs suggest there
will be enough of a westerly downslope push to keep the stratus
east of HYS tonight before the next cold front moves in tomorrow
morning. Winds are expected to remain below 12 knots at all
terminals through the period, with a wind shift from south to
west...then to northwest late tonight into early Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  24  16  50  22 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  28  17  52  22 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  47  24  54  24 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  35  18  52  23 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  20  14  46  19 /   0  20   0  40
P28  24  16  47  25 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Umscheid



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