Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 201759
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1259 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

The weather pattern will be fairly similar to what we saw yesterday
with an intensifying mid to upper level ridge across the Southern
Rockies and a trough of low pressure across eastern Colorado at the
surface. A few differences will be a slight shift in the winds to
the south southwest and slightly warmer as mid level temperatures
increase. Skies will become mostly clear by this afternoon with
highs ranging form the lower 90s across south central Kansas to
around 100 degrees across west central Kansas. With dewpoints in the
60s across central and south central Kansas, it will feel very warm
with heat indices around 100 degrees. A few thunderstorms may
develop across the higher terrain of eastern Colorado in the late
afternoon, but will have a harder time to initiate due to the warmer
mid level temperatures. As of now these storms are not expected to
affect far western Kansas. Skies become partly cloudy overnight with
winds out of the south. Lows overnight are expected to be in the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Upper level high will strengthen as it slowly moves north across New
Mexico into southern Colorado through mid week. Models this morning to
various degrees continue to move weak several upper level
disturbances through this upper high early in the week with and
the GFS and ECMWF still suggested a more significant upper level
disturbance will move across the central Plains on Monday night.
Given that the models continue to agree on timing and track of
this Monday night upper wave will keep a mention of thunderstorms
going Monday night as the upper wave passes. As for precipitation
chances after Monday night will stay close to persistence for
thunderstorm chances from late Tuesday through Thursday given the
uncertainty on timing and track of the other subtle upper level
features crossing the Central Plains along with the warm mid level
temperatures. Will need to monitor the potential for improving
chances for thunderstorms near and north of the Interstate 70
corridor given a weak cold front is forecast to drop south into
portions of northern Kansas.

As the high strengthens mid week over the central and southern
Rockies an upper low will be deepening off the coast of the
Pacific Northwest mid week. As this upper low will move east
towards the Northern Rockies late week the upper level ridge axis which
will be located north of the Colorado upper high will weaken and
shift east. The upper high is expected to begin to move southwest
across the four corners region. As the upper ridge axis shifts
east and a westerly flow improves across the Rockies mid to late
week the 700mb temperatures are forecast by both the ECMWF and GFS
to warm from +14c to +16c at 00z Wednesday to +16c to near +18c at
00z Saturday. 850mb temperatures do indicated some cooling mid
week with the cold front but warm from the mid to upper 20s at 00z
Thursday to the low to mid 30s by 00z Saturday. Based on these
temperatures expected in the 850mb to 700mb layer will stay close
to the latest guidance for highs. Highs around 100 degrees still
look reasonable Monday and Tuesday followed by a brief cool down
mid week. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be mainly in the mid
to upper 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A surface trough will remain in the lee of the Rockies through the
period, resulting in south winds at 10-15 kts. VFR conditions will
prevail as clear skies are expected underneath an upper level
ridge.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  73  99  72 /  10  10  10  20
GCK 100  73 102  71 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  99  72  99  70 /  10  10  20  20
LBL 100  73 101  71 /  10  10  10  20
HYS  96  74 102  72 /  10  10  10  20
P28  93  73  98  73 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Finch






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