Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 131700
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1200 PM CDT Sun Apr 13 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

Water vapor imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate an upper
level shortwave trough shifting eastward across the Western High
Plains. Meanwhile, a stronger secondary upper level trough is
digging southeast across the Northern Rockies. Near the surface,
a cold front is pushing southeast across south central Kansas.
Drier air is surging southward into western Kansas behind the
front with surface dewpoints down into the lower 30s(F) across
far southwest Kansas to the lower 50s(F) across south central
Kansas ahead of the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

An upper level shortwave currently over the area will continue to
move eastward towards the Mid Mississippi Valley today bringing
severe weather to eastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma. Meanwhile, a
second upper level shortwave is progged to move into the Central
Rockies today then into the Central High Plains tonight. Towards the
surface, an area of low pressure will shift from western Kansas this
morning and stretch from central Oklahoma to Missouri this
afternoon. Cold air will be advected southward behind this low
bringing windy conditions and below normal temperatures to western
Kansas. North winds of 30 to 40 mph will be observed this afternoon
with gusts up to 50 mph. High today are expected to range from
around 50 degrees across west central Kansas where the surge of cold
air will move through this morning to around 70 degrees across south
central Kansas where the surge of cold air is not expected to move
through until later in the day. Precipitation chances will also be
on the increase as the day progresses as mid level moisture wraps
around the aforementioned area of low pressure. The chance of rain
showers start out across west central Kansas this morning spreading
across the remainder of the CWA by this evening. Otherwise expect
mostly cloudy skies throughout the day.

Precipitation chances continue this evening as the second shortwave
moves into the Central High Plains. A band of mid level
frontogenesis forms across portions of southwest Kansas overnight
and this is where the heaviest precipitation is expected. Rain will
mix or change over to snow from west to east as the night progresses
with a majority of the CWA changing over to snow by sunrise Monday.
The only exception to this will be across south central Kansas where
temperatures may stay above freezing. With the exception of central
and South Central Kansas, snow fall amounts by Monday afternoon are
forecasted to be around an inch with closer to two inches of snow
possible across the KS/CO border. Lows Sunday night are expected to
range from the upper 20s across the KS/CO border to around 32
degrees across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

A widespread hard freeze is expected early Tuesday morning as ideal
radiational cooling will likely set up with clear skies and light
winds. Given the fairly high confidence in temperatures reaching the
mid to upper 20s, we will have a Hard Freeze Watch (forecast lows of
28 or colder during the growing season, which has just started
across much of the area) in effect for all of our west central,
southwest, and south central KS counties.

The next weather maker expected to impact the western Kansas region
will be Wednesday Night into Thursday. There are some significant
differences, though, between the ECMWF and the GFS models regarding
degree of amplification and resulting lower-mid tropospheric
development. The GFS is far more aggressive with both the cold air
intrusion into western Kansas as well as precipitation in the cold
sector. In fact, the GFS is suggesting a fair amount of snow in the
cold sector across much of the western half of Kansas Thursday,
whereas the ECMWF shows much less precipitation and focused farther
north toward the Kansas-Nebraska border. The official forecast calls
for Chance POPs (30 to 50 percent south to north) focused during the
day Thursday.  We kept the mention of snow mainly across areas
along/north of the Arkansas River and west of a Jetmore-Hays line,
however if the ECMWF model starts to trend more toward the more
aggressive GFS solution, then this forecast will need to be revised
to include more snow for more areas (as well as much cooler
temperatures).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

Low level stratus will persist across central and southwest Kansas
through early Monday morning resulting in widespread MVFR cigs at
all TAF sites with brief periods of IFR cigs possible. An upper
level storm system will move out of the Colorado Rockies into the
high plains tonight. Snow is expected to develop across
southeastern Colorado early this evening then move eastward into
southwest and central Kansas overnight. This may affect KGCK and
KDDC resulting in periods of IFR cigs/vsbys, although light snow
reaching as far north as KHYS cannot be ruled out. As for winds,
gusty north winds of 25 to 35kt will continue through early this
evening in wake of the frontal passage this morning. Winds will
remain northerly but subside somewhat later this evening to
around 15 to 25kt as surface high pressure moves southeast
along the Rockies into Colorado.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  28  44  24 /  50  60  30   0
GCK  53  27  45  24 /  60  70  20   0
EHA  55  27  45  26 /  50  70  20   0
LBL  58  28  44  26 /  50  70  30   0
HYS  53  28  45  24 /  60  60  20   0
P28  71  32  45  25 /  40  50  40   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM CDT /Midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8
AM MDT/ Monday FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>078-084-085.

HARD FREEZE WATCH from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR KSZ030-
031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday FOR KSZ066-079>081-
086>088.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson






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