Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 192026
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
326 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

A shortwave trough passing across the central plains
this evening will push a front southward into western
Kansas. Convergence will increase along the front and
thunderstorms are expected to develop after 6 pm around
Stafford and Kinsley. Shear and moderate CAPE are favorable for
supercells with hail as large as golf balls. There is still some
debate about whether there will be a line of storms along the
front or a brief window of time with isolated storms. Cold
advection behind the front tonight will result in lows in the
upper 40s to mid 50s, with highs in the upper 60s to near 70
degrees Thursday.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

A strong upper level storm system will amplify across
the southern plains on Friday. Western Kansas will be
north of the front with ample elevated moisture so that
widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected.
Highs may only reach into the upper 40s to  mid 50s given
the cloud cover and rainfall. A drier airmass will move
into western Kansas with continued cool temperatures.
Warmer temperatures can be expected by Monday and
Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees.
Fast moving upper level disturbances will pass across
the central plains next week and this is not
favorable for precipitation on the western high plains.
The upper level pattern may amplify across the
western United States by April 28-29th, resulting
in lee troughing and moisture return into central and south
central Kansas.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

South winds will persist ahead of a cold front and then shift
to the northeast at 15 kts between 01 and 03z. VFR conditions
will persist.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  70  47  53 /  30   0  50  70
GCK  50  69  47  51 /  10   0  40  70
EHA  50  70  46  54 /   0   0  40  60
LBL  54  72  48  53 /   0   0  50  70
HYS  49  68  47  53 /  20   0  10  80
P28  55  71  50  55 /  40  10  50  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch



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