Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 132137

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
337 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 313 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

A strong upper level disturbance was digging southeastward toward
Baja today and will become neutrally tilted over northern Mexico
by Saturday night. Cold air was in place over the central and
northern plains and warm and moist air was flowing into Texas
from the Gulf of Mexico. Isentropic lift will develop Saturday
morning with freezing rain breaking out during the day and
advancing northward. Given the solid cloud cover, temperatures
should not drop very much tonight, then only rise into the upper
20s on Saturday. The ice storm warning start time was changed to
6 am Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 313 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Widespread freezing rain will persist through Sunday night and
early Monday across most of southwestern Kansas. A change to snow
is possible across far western Kansas Sunday night as the mid
level trowal sets up. But its possible that even in the far west
the entire event could be freezing rain given the strong elevated
warm layer. Major ice accumulations of a half inch to an inch and
a half are expected. If the rain falls hard enough at times then
all of it will not accumulate as ice and there would be some
melting and runoff. Additionally, warmer rain falling into the
cold layer could result in temperatures rising to near 30 degrees
on Sunday, especially over south central Kansas. A colder
solution per ECMWF was maintained as opposed to the warner GFS.
Any warm surge Sunday night with the surface cyclone is expected
to be across eastern Kansas. Temperatures could warm to above
freezing in Medicine Lodge Sunday night but even this may not
occur. Temperatures tend to be colder than expected in these
situations when cold air is trapped under an elevated warm pool.
The GFS shows a more southerly track to the upper level system and
this may be due to the influences of convection.This solution
could possibly result in northwestern Kansas missing out on the
heaviest precipitation.

Another upper level system will pass across the central plains
Tuesday but given that the moisture will have been shunted to the
east by the aforementioned system, precipitation is not expected.
yet another upper level system is expected to progress into the
plains by late next week but this is too far out to speculate on
details. Some precipitation can be ruled out for next weekend as
this system passes.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1148 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS are expected to develop/persist through the
period as an upper level storm system approaches. Some light
freezing rain may develop at KDDC/KGCK by the end of the period
but conditions are expected to deteriorate quickly after the end
of the period with widespread freezing rain at the TAF sites.


DDC  22  29  24  27 /  40  80  80  90
GCK  21  30  25  28 /  20  70  80  90
EHA  26  34  25  35 /  40  70  80  90
LBL  25  30  25  31 /  60  80  90  90
HYS  20  29  25  32 /  10  30  60  70
P28  24  30  27  34 /  60  80  80  70


Ice Storm Warning from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Saturday to 6 AM CST
/5 AM MST/ Monday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.



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