Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 181834
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
134 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

...Updated Short Term and Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

For tonight into the first half of Friday, sensible weather will be
quite benign. Winds remaining out of the south at around 10 mph
through the night should keep the boundary layer mixed just enough
to prevent temperatures from getting much below 70 most locations. A
cold front will be charging south during the day tomorrow. The high
resolution models are actually showing that the main front with the
colder air will not arrive until the overnight hours, however a pre-
frontal trough axis with a wind shift to the north will be pushing
through in the afternoon. There will not be much of a temperature
difference behind this initial wind shift, therefore even the far
northwest counties in west-central Kansas should still see
temperatures rising to mid to upper 80s. South of the wind shift in
the mid to late afternoon, temperatures should easily reach 92 or 93
east of a Minneola to Kinsley line. The convergence along this front
will initiate thunderstorms in the 20-22Z time frame, as is shown by
pretty much every model. The low level winds will be veered enough
ahead of the front such that it will most likely be detrimental to
supercell structures. That said, we should still see initial
discrete convection attain some structure to support hail in the 1-
inch to golfball size range in a limited time window. There will
also be a damaging wind threat given the hot temperatures leading to
aggressive downdrafts with potential isolated microbursts. Highest
POPs in the grids will be from very late in the Friday period into
the first 3 to 5 hours of the Friday Night period, with central and
south central KS counties in the Likely range with 60-70 POPs.
Portions of west central and southwest KS, especially west of
Highway 283 may not see much thunderstorm activity at all. The
secondary front with the colder air later in the night may lead to
some showers and isolated thunder, but this would be much more
isolated/widely scattered in coverage.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

There are chances of thunderstorms Friday and then again by
Tuesday and Tuesday night ahead of the aforementioned upper level
disturbances. The storms Friday afternoon and evening could be
severe with large hail given the moderate surface based CAPE and
strongly veering wind profile. The best chance of storms will be
along and east of a line from Wakeeney to Larned to Coldwater.
Much cooler temperatures can be expected in the wake of the front
with highs in the upper 70s Saturday. Temperatures should fall
into the lower to middle 50s by Sunday morning. It is too early
to tell whether the storms Tuesday and Wednesday will be severe
in association with the aforementioned northern stream and
southern high plains troughs. Temperatures will recover a little
after Saturday`s cooldown, with highs in the mid and maybe even
upper 80s by Monday and Tuesday and persisting through the week.
There are additional chances for thunderstorms late next week end
next weekend as southern stream and northern stream upper level
troughs continue to affect western Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

No aviation weather impacts are expected through Friday midday.
There will be a slow increase in low level moisture, but the warm
airmass in place will prevent development of low stratus, and
dewpoints will not get above the lower to mid 60s. Winds will
continue from some variation of south, with speeds overnight in the
6 to 10 knot range. They will pick back up to the 12 to 15 knot
range out of the southwest at DDC, but as the trough axis approaches
at GCK and HYS, the gradient will be weaker, keeping winds less than
12 knots through midday Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  67  90  61 /  10  10  60  50
GCK  92  65  87  59 /  10  10  40  40
EHA  93  65  86  58 /  10  10  30  30
LBL  92  67  89  61 /  10  10  40  30
HYS  95  67  86  59 /   0  10  50  50
P28  91  69  92  67 /  10  10  50  70

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Umscheid



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