Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 270534
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1134 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL IMPROVE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE
NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES FROM 00Z TUESDAY TO 00Z WEDNESDAY WARMING 3 TO 7C
DESPITE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE DAY. AT THIS TIME GIVEN THAT THE
WARMER AIR IN THE 900 TO 850MB LAYER LATE TUESDAY WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND BASED ON THIS 850MB WARMUP EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WHICH WAS NEAR THE LATEST WARMER THAN THE WARMER GUIDANCE.

WIND SPEEDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE AT LEAST AS STRONG THAN WHAT THEY
WERE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS
GIVEN THE DEVELOPING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS
FAR EASTERN COLORADO, AND 0-1KM MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS. BASED ON
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH LATE DAY NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER AND AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE MID
20S THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES,
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. THE LOWEST AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR AND WEST OF GARDEN CITY,
HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

BREEZY COLD ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER INFLUENCE
FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING, FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BASED ON THE
ECMWF AND GFS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY COULD HAVE MAJOR
IMPACTS ON HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
INITIAL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY PROVIDE AS MUCH DOWNSLOPE WARMING AS
TO OFFSET ANY STRONG COOLING TENDENCY DURING THEY DAY, AS THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF THE MID 60S`S IN
MOST CASES, INCLUDING THE CONSENSUS OF MOS. HOWEVER, A PRONOUNCED
COOL DOWN  WILL IMMEDIATELY BE FELT BY THURSDAY WHERE DAYTIME
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES APPEAR STILL AROUND A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW A STRONG WAVE
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SOUTHERN STREAM JET,
DRIVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STATES. ONCE THIS JET
EXIST THE REGION TO THE SOUTH, A BRIEF 24 HOUR PERIOD OF MID LEVEL
RIDGING WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FOR DRY, PERHAPS
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BEFORE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER
ARRIVES. MID LEVEL QG FRONTOGENESIS PRECEDED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT IS LIKELY BY LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING.
AS THE COLUMN SLOWLY SATURATES, THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN, AND TURN TO SNOW AT SOME POINT IN THE
TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE. LITTLE MORE DETAILS CAN BE GLEANED AT THIS
POINT GIVEN THIS IS A DAY 6 SYSTEM, HOWEVER ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN GAINED TO INCREASE POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES THE
COOLING TREND, WITH HIGH POSSIBLY AS COLD AS BELOW FREEZING AGAIN
BY THE BACK PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WEST
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND COULD BE
GUSTY TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT GARDEN CITY AND DODGE
CITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  34  73  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  33  75  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  37  74  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  33  74  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  34  73  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
P28  36  73  42  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...GERARD


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