Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171055

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
555 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Early morning analysis shows an area of low pressure extending
from around Hays and Russell back toward Garden City. Winds have
become light and variable to the north of the axis with
temperatures dropping accordingly. Farther south, southwesterly
winds have stayed up which is keeping temperatures in the lower to
mid 60s at 3 am. Today will see the last round of very warm to
hot, possibly record breaking, temperatures. A band of strong mid
level winds extends from central California into the central and
northern Plains. A fast moving shortwave trough will move from the
central Rockies this morning into the Midwest by this evening. As
daytime heating progresses, we should see some of these winds
mixing toward the surface which will enhance downslope warming.

Most model guidance yesterday was way underdone in the amount of
heating that occurred. The HRRR and RAP models slowly caught on
during the day yesterday and have been showing run to run consistency
in a plume of upper 90s to low 100s max temperatures across the
southern part of southwest Kansas this afternoon. Have bumped up
high temperatures at least a few degrees across the area this

A strong cold front will push south across central and southwest
Kansas during the evening hours. Winds will switch to the north
and we could see fairly strong gusts for a few hours through mid
to late evening before weakening later tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

The models continue to show another strong positively tilted shortwave
trough moving out over the Plains states around Wednesday night. This
configuration is not favorable for precipitation in the High Plains
as the better moisture will be shunted off to the east. The models are
showing less and less potential for rainfall over western and central
Kansas with each run which makes sense. The biggest impact this will
have is another shot of cooler temperatures for Wednesday and
Thursday as another cold front pushes through. Temperatures on
Thursday may struggle to get out of the 50s. Frost could again be
a problem especially around Thursday morning. Upper level ridging
builds back into the central part of the country by the upcoming
weekend. Temperatures should be warming back into the 70s to
around 80.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

VFR expected through TAF pd. SW winds 12-25 kt bcmg N tgnt w fropa.


Issued at 353 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Another day of deep atmospheric mixing coupled with downslope flow
will result in hot and dry conditions. Relative humidity levels
should drop into the single digits to around 10 percent. A little
more uncertainty as to the strength of the winds but think we should
see at least frequent gusts to 25 mph to reach Red Flag criteria.
Given the warmer temperatures, think that sufficiently low relative
humidity levels should reach the Highway 183 corridor. Have added
the area from Edwards and Pawnee counties up to Trego and Ellis
counties into the warning for this afternoon.


DDC 100  48  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  98  45  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  95  46  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  99  47  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  93  48  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
P28  97  53  76  48 /   0   0   0   0


Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7
PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>080-



LONG TERM...Gerard
FIRE WEATHER...Gerard is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.