Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 282151
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
351 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

...Updated Short Term, Long Term, Fire Weather Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

A longwave trough was centered across the central CONUS today with
several disturbances of note on the smaller scale rotating through
the pattern. None of these were, or will be impacting western Kansas
weather in any impactful manner. The lower troposphere flow field
across western Kansas was largely in response to the southwest
periphery of the pressure gradient due to a very deep surface low
centered across the eastern Dakotas. The trajectories were largely
downslope component, and we were not receiving any true polar cold
air advection...at least yet. As a result of this, we should see
temperatures top out in the 60 to 64 degree range over much of
southwest and south central Kansas, which is at or slightly above
most of the guidance and gridded 2-meter temperature fields.

For tonight, with light winds out of the northwest and a mostly
clear sky, we should see temperatures fall easily into the upper 20s
considering how dry the low levels are. In fact, we may need to drop
the forecast a couple more degrees over some areas by press time
later this afternoon. The northwesterly flow will continue through
the day Tuesday, but the 900-800mb gradient will be a bit stronger,
which should translate into stronger winds at the surface with
fairly decent late morning to late afternoon mixing -- which the
NAM12 shows should reach about 3000 ft AGL by mid to late afternoon.
A mid tropospheric vorticity lobe rotating south around the west
side of the Dakotas gyre will help push some cooler lower
tropospheric temperatures south late tonight, which will reach
western Kansas early Tuesday. This will shave a good 10 degrees off
the temperatures that we are seeing today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

One more breezy/windy day is forecast Wednesday afternoon as western
Kansas remains in the strong gradient of the slowly departing upper
midwest low. There was collaborative agreement to raise the wind
speeds to at or just above CONSMOS guidance with widespread 20-24
knots sustained in the grids. 850mb temperatures will remain fairly
cool at or just below 0 degC, which will yield surface temperatures
in the afternoon in the upper 50s to perhaps lower 50s right along
the Oklahoma border. By Thursday, a slight synoptic pattern shift
will occur with another deepening of the western portion of the
longwave trough across the Great Basin region. This will induce
lower pressure to our southwest, and this will set up a pressure
pattern col across southwest Kansas in the lower troposphere with
very light winds. This will continue into Friday with a surface high
expanding across the Great Plains to our north. Temperatures will
remain seasonably cool with 850mb temps remaining around 0 degC,
give or take a couple degrees. The trough out west will deepen by
Friday and Friday Night, but will likely be too far south to have
any impact on our weather from a precipitation standpoint. The ECMWF
is the only global model that keeps the trough in tact by Saturday
as it moves across the central CONUS, whereas the Canadian and GFS
cut off the low over northern Mexico. Because of this divergence in
the model solutions, no change was made to the SuperBlend starting
point in the POP and other weather elements.  The best chances for
rain/snow will be along the Oklahoma border, but at this point that
doesn`t even look all that great. Scant QPF grids will be tied to
these low POPs.

Even though the GFS and ECMWF disagree on the weekend trough, they
interestingly both agree on a major pattern shift toward the end of
this forecast period late weekend into early next week across
western North America. There are growing signals of a significant
arctic airmass buildup across Western Canada at D+7. At least a
small chunk of this airmass should spill out into the American Great
Plains in the D+8 to D+10 time frame, but as has been discussed many
times before, the devil is in the details, and we just do not know
how this fundamental pattern change would impact western Kansas
weather going into the 8-11 December time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1133 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

The wind direction is not forecast to shift much from the
northwest through the period. Wind speeds this afternoon will
range 13 to 17 knots (a little higher at HYS) with gusts in the
low to mid 20s at times. The very dry airmass in place in the low
levels will keep flight category at VFR throughout the region
through Tuesday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 350 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2016

Elevated fire weather conditions will develop both Tuesday and
Wednesday as northwest winds of 20 to 25 mph will develop with
relative humidity falling in the afternoon each day to 20 to 25
percent. The combined conditions will be a little more widespread on
Wednesday with a larger area seeing stronger winds than on Tuesday.
By Thursday, winds are forecast to relax substantially as a weaker
pressure gradient develops across southwest Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  28  50  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  26  48  25  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  26  49  23  47 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  27  51  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  26  47  28  46 /   0   0   0   0
P28  32  55  29  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid
FIRE WEATHER...Umscheid



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