Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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518
FXUS63 KDDC 021757
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1257 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

...Updated Aviation and Short Term Sections...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016

Quiet weather will persist through the Short Term Period. The only
thing to watch will be a fairly weak upper level perturbation moving
from north to south across the Northern Plains today. This will
reach western Kansas late night/early Tuesday and will bring some
mid level cloud with it. Very light precipitation may be associated
with some of the mid level potential vorticity anomaly, but the lack
of moisture and frontogenesis will prevent organized precipitation,
and we will keep the POPs below mentionable (less than 15 percent).
Nevertheless, a few sprinkles can`t be ruled out across far west
central/southwest Kansas. Late in the afternoon, there may be enough
convergence along a weak surface trough to promote development of
very light rain showers/sprinkles as the -21 or -22C 500mb cold
pocket moves through southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon May 2 2016

Kansas weather will be quiet and dry through the upcoming week,
along with a pronounced warming trend. Weak shortwave embedded in
northerly flow aloft will drop through SW Kansas on Tuesday, with
very little fanfare. A sprinkle or two is possible, but the odds
of measurable rain are very low, and kept the forecast dry (pop
grids less than 15%). High pressure ridge axis amplifies strongly
over the Rocky Mountains and high plains Wednesday, in response to
deepening upper lows in California and the Great Lakes. Expecting
few if any clouds over SW Kansas by Wednesday as strong subsidence
takes over. Afternoon temperatures will warm nicely, back to where
they should be in early May, in the upper 60s and lower 70s on
Tuesday, and in the upper 70s Wednesday.

Thursday and Friday...High pressure ridge axis remains highly
amplified, as it phases ever so slowly eastward across the high
plains. Models have been consistent with the ridge axis passing
SW Kansas Friday morning. As such, thickness and 850 mb
temperatures peak on Friday afternoon, and Friday is expected to
be the warmest day of the forecast period (low to mid 80s).

Moisture transport on strong southerly flow will begin Friday,
with south winds gusting over 40 mph. Increased mixing and
boundary layer moisture will keep Saturday morning lows mild in
the mid to upper 50s.

Saturday and Sunday...Potential for thunderstorms will clearly
increase across SW Kansas this weekend, as SW flow returns aloft,
and the dryline is established. Magnitude of the severe weather
threat will depend on how much jet energy emanates from the large
closed Great Basin low, and the quality of the moisture return
east of the dryline. These details are far from clear this far
out, but the 00z ECMWF run currently suggests convection is most
likely across the western zones Saturday, and the eastern zones on
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Mon May 2 2016

A northwest wind will persist through the TAF period, at generally
less than 12 knots. A weak upper level disturbance will pass from
north to south late tonight into Tuesday, but will have no impact on
aviation weather as VFR is expected to persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  40  69  45 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  63  38  69  42 /  10  10  10   0
EHA  61  42  69  43 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  63  39  69  43 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  64  40  71  46 /  10  10  10   0
P28  65  42  74  47 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Umscheid



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