Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 182047
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
347 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

...Updated Long Term Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

For tonight into the first half of Friday, sensible weather will be
quite benign. Winds remaining out of the south at around 10 mph
through the night should keep the boundary layer mixed just enough
to prevent temperatures from getting much below 70 most locations. A
cold front will be charging south during the day tomorrow. The high
resolution models are actually showing that the main front with the
colder air will not arrive until the overnight hours, however a pre-
frontal trough axis with a wind shift to the north will be pushing
through in the afternoon. There will not be much of a temperature
difference behind this initial wind shift, therefore even the far
northwest counties in west-central Kansas should still see
temperatures rising to mid to upper 80s. South of the wind shift in
the mid to late afternoon, temperatures should easily reach 92 or 93
east of a Minneola to Kinsley line. The convergence along this front
will initiate thunderstorms in the 20-22Z time frame, as is shown by
pretty much every model. The low level winds will be veered enough
ahead of the front such that it will most likely be detrimental to
supercell structures. That said, we should still see initial
discrete convection attain some structure to support hail in the 1-
inch to golfball size range in a limited time window. There will
also be a damaging wind threat given the hot temperatures leading to
aggressive downdrafts with potential isolated microbursts. Highest
POPs in the grids will be from very late in the Friday period into
the first 3 to 5 hours of the Friday Night period, with central and
south central KS counties in the Likely range with 60-70 POPs.
Portions of west central and southwest KS, especially west of
Highway 283 may not see much thunderstorm activity at all. The
secondary front with the colder air later in the night may lead to
some showers and isolated thunder, but this would be much more
isolated/widely scattered in coverage.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

After the cold front passage late Friday Night, the weekend weather
will be tranquil and cooler. With 850mb temperatures in the teens,
afternoon temperatures at the surface will only top out in the 70s
Saturday and lower 80s Sunday. The center of the large surface high
will shift east into the mid Mississippi Valley by the end of the
weekend, and western Kansas will see a return to southerly flow
along with a warming lower troposphere. A subtropical low/trough
across the southwest states will lead weak southwesterly flow into
southwest Kansas. A lead disturbance ejecting out Late Monday
Night/early Tuesday will lead to an increase in low level moisture.
Lee trough convergence will start to increase by Tuesday across the
High Plains, and this will be the next time mentionable
precipitation will enter the forecast. A polar trough will also be
developing in western Canada extending into the Northern Rockies
around midweek, which will spawn another cold front. This would
enter the picture around Wednesday with slightly better chances for
thunderstorm activity given the baroclinic forcing for ascent.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 132 PM CDT Thu Aug 18 2016

No aviation weather impacts are expected through Friday midday.
There will be a slow increase in low level moisture, but the warm
airmass in place will prevent development of low stratus, and
dewpoints will not get above the lower to mid 60s. Winds will
continue from some variation of south, with speeds overnight in the
6 to 10 knot range. They will pick back up to the 12 to 15 knot
range out of the southwest at DDC, but as the trough axis approaches
at GCK and HYS, the gradient will be weaker, keeping winds less than
12 knots through midday Friday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  90  58  76 /  10  30  50  10
GCK  67  87  56  76 /  10  20  20  10
EHA  65  88  55  77 /  10  20  40  10
LBL  67  92  58  77 /  10  20  40  10
HYS  67  85  56  76 /  10  70  70  10
P28  70  93  64  77 /  10  30  70  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid



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