Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 180653
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
153 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

THERE IS A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, THERE IS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF A HIGH PRESSURE REGION EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED WEST FROM THE SOUTHERN
OHIO VALLEY TO SOUTHWEST TEXAS, THEN ARCHING NORTH TO THE WEST
SIDE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES. THIS MEANS THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH TODAY OR
TONIGHT, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING
OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH ABOUT 19
TO 20Z TODAY, THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 18 MPH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNDOWN, SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SETTLE TO LESS THAN
10 MPH.

TODAY WILL GET A SLOW START ON HEATING, DUE TO SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S MOST LOCATIONS.
THE WARMEST READINGS SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE OKLAHOMA LINE.  TONIGHT,
WITH FEWER CLOUDS AND LIGHT UPSLOPE WINDS, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP TO THE MIDDLE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS.  THE HAYS AREA SHOULD BE
THE COOLEST AROUND 45F DEGREES, WITH THE LIBERAL/MEADE AREAS
DROPPING ONLY TO THE 48F RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD THERE ARE SUBTLE FEATURES THAT COULD
BRING A LITTLE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.
ACTUALLY, THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A SMALL AND COMPACT S/WV TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES THAT WAS MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE
WEEKEND.  BESIDES, BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO IT
APPEARS THAT THE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

THE NEXT CHANGE WILL BE ANOTHER DIGGING S/WV INTO THE SOUTHWEST
(AGAIN IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES). THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS HAVE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS DEVELOPMENT.
REGARDLESS, ANY IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY BE LATER NEXT WEEK.  THERE IS
ALREADY SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS NO NEED TO TWEAK
SMALL POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BUT THERE WILL
BE DAILY FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO CLOUD COVER THAT MOVES THROUGH.  THE
ONLY THING TO WATCH IS A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WHICH COULD ALLOW A WEAK "BACKDOOR" FRONT BY MONDAY BUT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THE IMPACTS WOULD BE GREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR WILL BE RULE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. JUST A FEW CIRRUS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 20Z
TODAY. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND
BLOW AT 10 TO 17 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL AGAIN SUBSIDE TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER 01Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  47  75  50 /   0  10  10  10
GCK  66  47  75  47 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  66  48  77  49 /   0  10  10  10
LBL  66  47  77  50 /   0  10  10  10
HYS  63  46  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
P28  66  46  73  52 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HUTTON
AVIATION...BURKE


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