Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 251725
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1225 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
TODAY. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY I304 TO I313 ISENTROPIC SURFACES
FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATED MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE
IMPROVING EARLY TODAY. BASED ON THIS IMPROVING MOISTURE AND LIFT
EARLY TODAY AM RELUCTANT TO REMOVE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR
AREAS MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. AT THIS TIME THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS PRECIPITATION FROM THIS ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FURTHER NORTHWEST MODELS THIS MORNING ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY MID DAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LOCATED OVER IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA AT 00Z
WEDNESDAY, MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BY LATE DAY
THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE IMPROVING ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. WITH MOISTURE LOCATED
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AND AN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS MOVING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE TODAY WILL
MENTION ANOTHER AREA WHERE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE END BEFORE MIDNIGHT SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY MIDNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENESIS MOVES INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS. BEHIND THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THE SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AND BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING UNDER
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE AT LESS THAN 10
KNOTS. BASED ON THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z WILL FOLLOW
THE COOLER GUIDANCE AND FAVORED OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 20S IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 35 DEGREES IN SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FRONT PASSES A
NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH
RANGE. IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS COOLER AIR WILL BE
INVADING WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BASED ON INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 18Z WEDNESDAY AND 00Z THURSDAY BEHIND THIS COLD
FRONT THE HIGHS ACROSS FAR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAY
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB MUCH WARMER THAN THE UPPER 50S. FURTHER
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 850MB TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

DRY NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

FOR THURSDAY, COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN KANSAS. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH
HIGHS FROM 60 TO 65.

ON FRIDAY, A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH HIGHS WARMING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FAR WEST, TO AROUND 65 OVER PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

FOR SATURDAY MUCH WARMER AIR SPILLS INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. HIGHS WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

FOR SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS PUSHING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS KANSAS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE FOUND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

BY MONDAY, SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FOR TUESDAY, A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF DODGE CITY AS GULF MOISTURE
RETURNS. HIGHS WARM BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.

OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 DEGREES
ON FRIDAY MORNING, THEN INTO THE 40S INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AOA100. A FEW MID TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COULD FORM BEHIND A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN. THIS COULD BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
TO THE TAF SITES. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 35
KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS THEN DECREASE TO AROUND 8 KNOTS THIS
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  63  29  63  33 /  30  30  10  10
GCK  61  27  63  33 /  40  20  10  10
EHA  60  31  63  35 /  30  20  10  10
LBL  63  28  64  34 /  30  30  10  10
HYS  57  27  59  31 /  60  20  10  10
P28  67  33  62  34 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42


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