Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 171700

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Latest upper air analysis showed a vigorous 500 mb shortwave
trough/closed low located over eastern Colorado early this
morning. Thunderstorms over central Kansas earlier this evening
have moved off into eastern Kansas and the convective watch in
effect through the overnight hours has been cancelled. A few
showers and thunderstorms were lingering over north central Kansas
where the low level jet was impinging on a frontal boundary in
that area. Farther west, an area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms associated with a mid level deformation zone was
spreading into far southwest Kansas. The deformation area will
work its way into far western Kansas early this morning and then
gradually diminish through the morning hours as the upper low
continues east northeastward.

As the upper low and its surface reflection move off this morning,
the area will come under increasing west northwest flow off the
surface which will mix down after sunrise. We could see sustained
winds around 25 knots at times today especially to the north of
Highway 50/400. Winds will diminish later this afternoon as the
upper low pulls away from the region.

Tonight, surface pressures will begin to fall over southeast
Colorado in response to the next upper low system digging into the
central Rockies. This will result in winds switching to a
northeasterly upslope flow. The evening will start out mostly
clear but mid/high clouds will be increasing ahead of the upper
low. The boundary layer upslope conditions could result in areas
of stratus and possibly some fog developing later tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed May 17 2017

Thursday will see the upper low continuing to move out over the
central High Plains. The surface low is progged to deepen over the
Texas Panhandle while a warm front drifts back northward over
central and southwest Kansas in response to strong meridional flow
over the region to the east of the upper low. A very moist airmass
will also be spreading back into central and southwest Kansas to
the east of the dryline. The models show some differences in the
position of the front and dryline Thursday afternoon which will
have some implications on the exact placement of severe convection
that will likely develop during the afternoon and evening hours. Model
forecasts show MUCAPE values upwards of 2000-3000 j/kg with 0-6km
bulk shear on the order of 50-60 knots. The latest Day 2 severe
weather outlook from SPC has been upgraded to a moderate risk for
severe weather over parts of south central and southwest Kansas as
far west and north as Highways 25 and 96 which looks reasonable.
In addition to the severe weather, there will be an increased threat
for flooding in this area with storms potentially developing and
training along the warm front.

Thunderstorms could linger or redevelop again on Friday especially
toward central Kansas before the upper low begins to open up and
lift out to the northeast. Saturday and Sunday should be fairly
quiet before another upper trough dives out of the northwest into
the central Plains with increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms again early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed May 17 2017

VFR expected today and tonight. IFR conditions possible for KHYS/KDDC
tomorrow morning as moisture returns. Overnight LLWS is also possible
for KLBL via a LLJ. NW winds today becoming E tomorrow.


DDC  79  49  79  52 /  10   0  30  70
GCK  78  47  75  48 /  20   0  40  40
EHA  79  48  76  46 /  60   0  20  30
LBL  82  51  81  50 /  20   0  20  40
HYS  75  48  72  51 /  80   0  20  80
P28  82  54  81  59 /  10   0  30  80




LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Sugden is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.