Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 161104
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
504 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

A drier pattern will continue today through tonight as a west-
southwest flow aloft prevails across the Western High Plains
during much of the period. A dry air mass will remain settled
across western Kansas despite a southerly flow quickly returning
to the high plains this afternoon on the backside of a departing
surface high across the Central Plains. Precip chances will remain
absent across the area through Friday night. Surface high
pressure will move across eastern Kansas today reinforcing the
colder air mass already moving into western Kansas, keeping H85
temperatures down around to just below 0C. Expect highs pushing
the lower to mid 40s(F) this afternoon with the warmer temperatures
in extreme southwest Kansas, particularly if enough sunshine
breaks out. Highs may only reach the upper 30s(F) in central
Kansas. Look for lows down into the 20s(F) across central Kansas
Friday night with the lower to mid 30s(F) likely in extreme
southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 208 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

A weak upper level shortwave transitioning across the Western High
Plains will usher another frontal passage through western Kansas
Saturday reinforcing an already relatively dry air mass across the
region. With an already weakening westerly flow aloft, precip
chances will remain absent through the remainder of the weekend. A
deepening trough across the Intermountain West early next week will
set up an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft across the
Western High Plains in advance of yet another projected frontal
passage expected late Monday. Regardless of a prevailing southerly
flow ahead of the approaching boundary, moisture will remain fairly
limited hindering precip chances for the region.

Above normal temperatures are expected Saturday regardless of a weak
frontal boundary pushing through western Kansas early in the day.
With little effect on the air mass across the high plains, should
see highs pushing well up into the 50s(F) to near 60F Saturday
afternoon. A quickly developing and strengthening lee side trough
will set the stage for a strong southerly flow Sunday, drawing
much warmer air into western Kansas. Widespread 70s(F) are likely
for highs Sunday afternoon. A frontal passage Monday will drop
high temperatures back down below normal going into the middle
part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 500 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this
evening. Northerly winds 10 to 20kt early this morning will
gradually subside through early afternoon becoming light and
variable as surface high pressure moves out of Nebraska into
eastern Kansas. South winds 10 to 20kt will develop this evening
as the surface high kicks eastward out of Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  42  27  60  37 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  42  25  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  45  32  60  36 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  43  27  60  36 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  40  25  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
P28  43  30  62  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson



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