Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 250502
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1202 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TONIGHT, WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE MID LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS TONIGHT, LEE
TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE MID LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE HIGH 40S IN FAR WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT, WITH WARMER
50S FARTHER EAST. GIVEN THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY, SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SLIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT. AS A RESULT, A SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT
SATURDAY AS OPPOSED TO THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS TODAY OUGHT TO RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER (MAINLY LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S AS OPPOSED TO MID TO UPPER 80S). AFTER A PATCH OF
CIRRUS PASSES THIS AFTERNOON, SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM STRETCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE WEEKEND.
UPPER 80S APPEAR LIKELY, APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS (89F IS THE RECORD
HIGH AT DODGE CITY SUNDAY). THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY, THOUGH, AS
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO
OFFSET WARMING FROM DIRECT INSOLATION. THE COOLER ECMWF WAS FOLLOWED
GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONGER INITIAL COLD ADVECTION. LATE MONDAY
NIGHT, WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE 700MB
FRONT, HOWEVER THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AT 700MB AND THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST TO OUR NORTH. THE
LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST
IN THE BROADER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING BACK UP INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S, WHICH IS REFLECTED ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PREVAIL LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS ARIZONA.
LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE LIKELY WITH A
NEAR-ZERO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE POLAR JET
STREAM SHIFTS WELL BACK TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY 10-16KT AFTER 18Z AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN EASTERN COLORADO. TONIGHT THE
WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 10KT WITH DECOUPLING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  85  54  88 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  49  86  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  50  87  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  51  87  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  50  81  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
P28  57  87  57  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...KRUSE



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