Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 210744
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
244 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014
...Updated short term section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
An upper level ridge will continue to spin around the southern
Rockies with a 60+ knot 250 mb jet stretching around it from the
Desert Southwest to Nebraska and South Dakota. Upper level moisture
will also be on the increase allowing more high clouds to be present
this afternoon. A trough of low pressure will be found at the
surface across the KS/CO border today into tonight allowing south to
south southwest winds to be felt across western Kansas. A few
thunderstorms may form along this trough late this afternoon into
evening, otherwise expect partly cloudy skies. Highs today are
expected to reach into the upper 90s with a few places making it to
triple digits. Any storms that do form this evening are expected to
move off to the east and slowly dissipate by around midnight.
Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies across western Kansas. Lows
tonight are forecasted to dip into the lower 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014
For Tuesday into Wednesday, a shortwave trough rounds the top of the
very warm upper ridge across the Central Plains, pushing a cold
front across western Kansas on Wednesday. Ahead of this wave, a very
warm airmass will continue on Tuesday with highs around 100.
Guidance for Tuesday has warmer highs from 101 to 105, however
it has been a few degrees too warm of late. For Wednesday highs
cool a bit to the mid and upper 90s with the warmest across the
Oklahoma border. A few thunderstorms are possible on Monday night
into Tuesday as a weak surface trough moves out into western
Kansas but chances are slight. Very warm temperatures aloft may
keep thunderstorms from forming. Any storms that form will likely
be not severe with very weak layer wind shear expected.
For Thursday into next Weekend, the warm upper ridge begins to
retrograde as northern branch upper level energy tops the ridge
across the Northern Plains. The next best chance for measurable
rainfall is toward the Weekend as a cold front associated with an
upper trough moves across Kansas. Highs in the mid to upper 90s cool
back to the low to mid 90s by Sunday with the front. Overnight lows
will continue very mild from 70 to 75.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014
VFR conditions will prevail overnight into the afternoon with
scattered high clouds. Winds will generally be from the south
southwest at 8-10 knots overnight increasing to 15-20 knots by
late afternoon with higher gusts.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 99 73 100 72 / 10 20 10 10
GCK 100 72 100 72 / 10 20 10 10
EHA 99 71 100 69 / 20 20 10 10
LBL 100 72 101 71 / 10 20 10 10
HYS 100 73 101 73 / 10 20 10 20
P28 98 74 100 75 / 10 10 10 10