Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 112306

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
606 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

A dry period will continue through late Thursday afternoon as a
west-southwest flow aloft prevails across the Western High Plains
during the period. Although a return flow will begin to draw
moisture up into central and much of southwest Kansas, it will
increase slow enough to limit instability across the region.
Factoring in a weak flow aloft, precip chances will remain absent
across the area through late Thursday. Lee side troughing will
continue to support a modest southerly flow across the high plains
tonight, drawing warmer air northward into western Kansas. Look
for lows only down into the 40s(F) to the possibly the lower
50s(F) late tonight. The prevailing lee side trough in eastern
Colorado is projected to edge eastward toward the Kansas border
Thursday resulting in more of a southwest downslope flow across
the region. Considering short range models are showing H85
temperatures pushing up into the lower to mid 20s(C) by midday,
expect widespread 80s(F) for highs Thursday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

The next cold front is poised to enter western Kansas Friday
afternoon, but this front will only have a weak initial push, which
will eventually stall out across far southern Kansas as it awaits
the main upper level trough across the Pacific Northwest region.
There will likely be a 20-25 degree gradient across western/central
Kansas Friday afternoon with mid 80s forecast ahead of the front
(south central KS) to the lower 60s across northwest KS.

Surface-based thunderstorms are not expected Friday night along the
front, however elevated nocturnal storms are suggested by both the
GFS and ECMWF models as the low level front transitions to slightly
warm frontogenetic. These initial storms will probably leave a
meaningful outflow boundary, perhaps enhancing convergence along the
main polar front, focusing an area for enhanced surface-based
development of strong/severe convection later in the afternoon
Saturday. Not much has changed in the overall thinking for placement
of best severe chances Saturday -- mainly south central KS, east of
a Larned to Ashland line.

As the main positively-tilted trough axis in the mid-upper
troposphere approaches western Nebraska late Saturday, low level
anticyclogenesis will increase quite a bit, sending a surge of north
winds south through western Kansas. ECMWF and GFS show 850mb winds
of 45-50 knots for about a 6 hour period late Saturday Night. The
intense MSLP rises behind the front, along with the gradient itself,
will support sustained surface winds of 25 to 35 mph, gusts to 50
mph at times. These winds will decrease quite a bit later in the
morning Sunday as the surface high moves in quickly. In the grids,
we had to load in the CONSMOS guidance as SuperBlend winds were
woefully low given the meteorology of this forecast wind event just
behind the front. Thanks surrounding WFOs GLD, GID, ICT, AMA, OUN
for coordination on the wind grids behind the front.

After that, quieter weather is forecast early next week, with
moderating temperatures (after Sunday) with highs back into the upper
60s to 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

South/southeasterly winds tonight will range from 10 to 15 knots.
Overnight a 30 to 40 knot south wind is forecast to develop
across western Kansas in the 1000 to 2000 ft AGL level. This speed
shear expected overnight will not meet the wind shear criteria so
will not include this in the 00z tafs. Gusty south winds at 15 to
20 knots will return to southwest Kansas by late morning on
Thursday. Model sounding indicating VFR conditions over the next
24 hours.


DDC  50  85  58  78 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  47  85  53  74 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  50  87  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  50  87  57  81 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  45  82  54  68 /   0   0   0   0
P28  48  82  61  85 /   0   0   0  10




LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.