Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 251711
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1111 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A BROAD, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY, AND BE OVER AN AXIS FROM
MINNESOTA TO ILLINOIS TO MISSISSIPPI BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  A
SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL SLOWLY EDGE EAST TODAY
AND BE NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  TODAY WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING. BY LATE
MORNING, THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TO 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY.
THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AID IN THE WARM UP TODAY, AND HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN A SMALL RANGE, FROM AROUND 50F DEGREES EAST OF
HIGHWAY 183, TO THE MID 50S IN THE HAMILTON, STANTON AND MORTON
COUNTY AREAS.

TONIGHT, THERE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT COMING SOUTH FROM THE WYOMING
PLAINS, AND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM CST.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME MID LEVEL
CEILINGS WITH IT, BUT I DOUBT THE WHOLE NIGHT TIME PERIOD WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY.  RATHER, SKIES SHOULD START OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS TONIGHT WILL
START OUT WEST AROUND 10 MPH, AND THEN SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH AS THE FRONT PASSES BY.  MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST IN THE SYRACUSE TO
DIGHTON TO WAKEENEY AREAS, AND FALL TO THE MID 20S.  TO CONTRAST
THIS, THE SOUTHEAST ZONES SOUTHEAST OF A ST. JOHN TO KINSLEY TO
ASHLAND LINE, WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH MINS OVERNIGHT, ONLY
FALLING TO THE LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY RECOVERING FROM A BRIEF VISIT
OF COLDER AIR FROM THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL AND DIGGING TROUGH.
WARMEST READINGS WILL BE ACROSS MY FAR SOUTHWESTER COUNTIES AS
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE ENOUGH TO BOOST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE GRADIENT OF MAX TEMPERATURES FROM WARMEST IN THE
SOUTHWEST TO COLDEST IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOWARDS HAYS COULD
SHIFT A LITTLE SO LATER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY.

UPPER HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
LATER IN THE WEEK. SURFACE PRESSURES WILL FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND A RESULTING SOUTHERLY FETCH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
ENSUE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH
WARMER AS DEEP MIXING WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES, SPREADING NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. I`M PROBABLY A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS ON FRIDAY AS 85H TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO
BE 15 TO 18 C.

ARCTIC AIR MAY MAKE A RETURN VISIT OVER THE WEEKEND, OR MAY BE
DELAYED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DRIVEN BY THE POLAR JET CARVING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. DETAILS ON PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES IS
POINTLESS AT THIS TIME. BUT, I`M SURE ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. DESPITE THIS, FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO REMAIN VFR. LEE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
15-25 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 10-18 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  29  50  26 /   0  10   0   0
GCK  52  28  50  25 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  53  31  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  53  28  55  30 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  51  29  44  22 /   0  10   0   0
P28  53  32  51  25 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURKE
LONG TERM...HUTTON
AVIATION...SUGDEN



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