Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 202000 AAA
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
300 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Updated for Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

The weather pattern will be fairly similar to what we saw yesterday
with an intensifying mid to upper level ridge across the Southern
Rockies and a trough of low pressure across eastern Colorado at the
surface. A few differences will be a slight shift in the winds to
the south southwest and slightly warmer as mid level temperatures
increase. Skies will become mostly clear by this afternoon with
highs ranging form the lower 90s across south central Kansas to
around 100 degrees across west central Kansas. With dewpoints in the
60s across central and south central Kansas, it will feel very warm
with heat indices around 100 degrees. A few thunderstorms may
develop across the higher terrain of eastern Colorado in the late
afternoon, but will have a harder time to initiate due to the warmer
mid level temperatures. As of now these storms are not expected to
affect far western Kansas. Skies become partly cloudy overnight with
winds out of the south. Lows overnight are expected to be in the
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For Tuesday into Wednesday, a shortwave trough rounds the top of the
very warm upper ridge across the Central Plains, pushing a cold
front across western Kansas on Wednesday. Ahead of this wave, a very
warm airmass will continue on Tuesday with highs around 100.
Guidance for Tuesday has warmer highs from 101 to 105, however
it has been a few degrees too warm of late. For Wednesday highs
cool a bit to the mid and upper 90s with the warmest across the
Oklahoma border. A few thunderstorms are possible on Monday night
into Tuesday as a weak surface trough moves out into western
Kansas but chances are slight. Very warm temperatures aloft may
keep thunderstorms from forming. Any storms that form will likely
be not severe with very weak layer wind shear expected.

For Thursday into next Weekend, the warm upper ridge begins to
retrograde as northern branch upper level energy tops the ridge
across the Northern Plains. The next best chance for measurable
rainfall is toward the Weekend as a cold front associated with an
upper trough moves across Kansas. Highs in the mid to upper 90s cool
back to the low to mid 90s by Sunday with the front. Overnight lows
will continue very mild from 70 to 75.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A surface trough will remain in the lee of the Rockies through the
period, resulting in south winds at 10-15 kts. VFR conditions will
prevail as clear skies are expected underneath an upper level
ridge.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  99  72 100 /  10  10  20  10
GCK  73 102  72 100 /  10  20  20  10
EHA  70  99  71 100 /  10  20  20  10
LBL  72 101  71 101 /  10  10  20  10
HYS  74 102  72 102 /  10  10  20  20
P28  73  98  74 100 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Finch






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