Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200546
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1146 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

A CENTER OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY TURN NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON EASTERLY AND THEN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE RETURN (WEAK) SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
HOWEVER THE LEVEL OF CIRRUS REMAINS LESS CERTAIN. NAM MODEL
INDICATES INCREASING DEW POINT TEMPERATURES POOLING NEAR THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST KS THROUGH SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. IN THESE AREAS THE MODELS SUGGEST SOME POSSIBILITY FOR FOG
OWING LARGELY TO SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

THE NAM MODEL AND IT`S RELATIVE MESOSCALE MODELS MUST AGAIN BE
IGNORED FOR THURSDAY`S MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THEY CONTINUE
TO BE INFLUENCED BY A FALSE SNOWFIELD. THE GFS/ECMWF AND MOS
NUMBERS WILL HANDLE THE TEMPERATURE FIELDS MORE REALISTICALLY
UNTIL THIS ISSUE IS RESOLVED. WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DOWNSLOPE
OR WARM ADVECTION, MODEL TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 DEGREES ON
THURSDAY LOOK REASONABLE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

THE FIRST PERIODS OF THE "LONG TERM", THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
WILL BE FOCUSED ON DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT WITH NOT MUCH ELSE
IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER ACTIVITY AFFECTING SOUTHWEST KANSAS
OTHERWISE (AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND).  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED A WHOLE LOT OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE TRACK OF THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE (COMING IN OFF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY) AND THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC (WEAK) DEVELOPMENT STILL FAVOR SOME WEAK
FRONTOGENETIC/ISENTROPIC LIFT COMING INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL KS
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. AS SOME OF THE 900-850MB THETA-E
ADVECTION/SATURATION REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL KS, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 (EXCEPT
FOR PLACES LIKE KIOWA RIGHT ALONG THE OK BORDER). THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO OUTPUT "DRIZZLE" QPF (0.01-0.02 INCH) AS
FAR NORTHWEST AS ROUGHLY A COLDWATER TO LARNED LINE, AND THIS IS
WHERE WE WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 20 POPS FOR DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE. ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMB OUT OF SUB-FREEZING TERRITORY
AFTER SUNRISE. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RESPONSE AND WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS/MOISTURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

THE NEXT MUCH STRONGER MID LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO FRIDAY, BUT IT WILL BE ENTERING A LOWER
TROPOSPHERE ABSENT OF BAROCLINICITY (EXCEPT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH
TEXAS NEAR THE SURFACE). THE ONLY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE TIED TO WARM CONVEYER BELT, AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
DO NOT FAVOR ANY PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST AS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH
THE MID LEVEL WAVE REMAINING OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE. SATURDAY WILL
ACTUALLY BE FAIRLY MILD, COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING TO WHAT IT HAS BEEN,
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 53-57F RANGE MOST PLACES.
THE SATURDAY WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY AN INTENSE ZONAL JET
WITH VERY NICE MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION COMING IN OFF THE PACIFIC.
AGAIN, THE ZONAL NATURE OF THIS FEATURE AND PLACEMENT OF LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC DEVELOPMENT TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WILL INHIBIT ANY
PRECIPITATION OF SUBSTANCE THIS FAR WEST. SINCE THIS MAJOR JET WILL
BE QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THE SATURDAY WAVE, THE TWO ENTITIES WILL
PHASE INTO A MAJOR MID LATITUDE CYCLONE (AS IS SHOWN NOW BY BOTH THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF MODELS) OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION.
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS FROM THIS WILL
BE VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS, PRIMARILY ON SUNDAY AND PROBABLY
LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS WELL. WHILE WE WILL SEE SOME COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THIS MAJOR LOW, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CROSS-MOUNTAIN MOMENTUM
IN THE 800-650MB LAYER TO OFFSET SOME OF THE COLD ADVECTION WITH
DOWNSLOPE.

IN THE DAY 8 TO 10 TIME FRAME, THE GFS AND GFS13-PARALLEL ARE VERY
DIFFERENT FROM THE ECMWF IN WHAT MAY TRANSPIRE TOWARD THE IMPORTANT
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY TIME FRAME. THE GENERALLY HIGHER-SKILL ECMWF
SHOWS A MUCH COLDER, WETTER SCENARIO WITH ARCTIC AIR COMING DOWN
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHEREAS THE NCEP GLOBAL SOLUTIONS DO NOT
SUPPORT THIS AS OF RIGHT NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY, BUT WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG
CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN THIN BROKEN TO BROKEN
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH BASES AOA200 IN GCK AND DDC TODAY,
SPREADING TO HYS BY 00Z. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY, AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT WILL BE LIFTED OVER THE RETREATING COOL AIR
MASS, AND WIDESPREAD STRATUS WITH CEILINGS BLO010 WILL DEVELOP
BEFORE MIDNIGHT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE STRATUS WILL APPROACH
DDC BY 06Z AND WILL REACH HYS AND GCK AFTER 08Z FRIDAY. VISIBILITIES
WILL FALL TO BELOW 1 MILE IN FOG IN DDC AND GCK BY 09Z FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  48  25  45 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  22  50  23  46 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  25  49  25  52 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  22  50  23  48 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  22  50  24  43 /   0   0  10  10
P28  26  49  30  46 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...RUTHI


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