Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 250546
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1246 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...UPDATED SYNOPSIS AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

AT 00Z WEDNESDAY A 500MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA. THIS WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
250MB JET STREAK. FURTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THE
MEAN FLOW FROM THE 850MB TO 500MB LEVEL WAS WESTERLY AND THE 850MB
TEMPERATURES AT 00Z WEDNESDAY RANGED FROM +5C AT TOPEKA TO +18C AT
AMARILLO. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY/DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
EXTENDED FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA AND EAST CENTRAL
WYOMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING LEAVING WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST
FLOW ABOVE WESTERN KANSAS. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING SHIFTING TO
MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PUSHES A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE FELT BEHIND THIS FRONT, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STRATUS POSSIBLE BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE ONLY AREA THAT HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS TO
MID 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
TO UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HOWEVER, IF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FASTER OR SLOWER THAN WHAT THE MODELS
SHOW THE TEMPERATURES COULD REFLECT A DIFFERENT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY GIVING WAY TO A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. MUCH
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH.
ALONG WITH A WEAKER FLOW ALOFT, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR PRECIP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN H5 VORT
MAXIMA DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN VOID OF NECESSARY MOISTURE,
A STRONG ENOUGH JET CORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 VORT MAXIMA MAY BE
ENOUGH SUPPORT ALOFT TO PRODUCE SPRINKLES OR EVEN A FEW ISOLATED
HIGH BASED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OUT WEST BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO BRINGING ABOUT A WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL WARM THE
NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER RAISING H85 TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND 5C
IN CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 10C IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOK FOR
HIGHS UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S(F) THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION RAISES H85
TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER WITH VALUES AROUND TO A LITTLE ABOVE 10C.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F) FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
LOWER TO MID 70S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING APPROACHES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HIGHS ARE LIKELY
TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S(F) THIS WEEKEND WITH THE LOWER 80S(F) A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS WERE BOTH IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MOISTURE SPREADING INTO WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TODAY
WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 650 MB LEVEL AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. BY LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING THE CLOUD
BASES DECREASE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AS THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z BUT AT
THIS TIME GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY WILL NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE TAFS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN EARLY TONIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. THE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE AFTER 18Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  29  63  33  66 /  10  10  10   0
GCK  27  63  33  68 /  10  10  10   0
EHA  31  63  35  70 /  10  10  10   0
LBL  28  64  35  68 /  10  10  10   0
HYS  27  58  31  62 /  10  10  20   0
P28  33  62  33  61 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT


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