Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271705
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1205 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A PREVAILING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WHILE A
BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL
LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL PLACE WESTERN KANSAS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, A DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ABOVE US TODAY LEADING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH LEE TROUGHING REDEVELOPING
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO
REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWS TONIGHT DIPPING INTO THE MID
60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

FOR SUNDAY, UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND MISSOURI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WEAK WIND SHIFT
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY EAST OF DODGE
CITY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH FORECAST CAPES AROUND 3000 J/KG BUT WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

FOR MONDAY, SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE GREAT LAKES
SHORTWAVE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER
90S.

FOR THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY, ANOTHER NORTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY.
RAINFALL CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A
CHANCE FOR A FEW MCS`S IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WARM BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S ON WEDNESDAY, THEN COOL AGAIN TO AROUND 90 FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF
WESTERN KANSAS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5 TO 15KT BRIEFLY EARLY
SUNDAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS BY MID DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  65  95  65 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  89  63  95  65 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  88  65  95  65 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  88  65  95  66 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  88  63  95  64 /   0   0   0  10
P28  89  65  97  67 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJOHNSON
SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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