000
FXUS63 KDDC 131909
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
209 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

...UPDATED SHORT TERM AND FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

AT 12Z THURSDAY A 500 MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A 500MB THERMAL TROUGH WAS
LOCATED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN COLORADO. ANOTHER,
BETTER DEFINED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO SOUTHWEST OF DEL RIO TX. FURTHER WEST A -27C 500MB LOW WAS
LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF WASHINGTON. AT THE 700MB LEVEL
+14 TO +16C TEMPERATURES EXTENDED FROM DODGE CITY SOUTHWEST INTO
THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS AND NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. THE WIND WAS
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. AT THE 850MB LEVEL +14 TO +18C
DEWPOINTS EXTENDED FROM DODGE CITY SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE
850MB TEMPERATURES AT DODGE CITY AND AMARILLO WERE 22C THIS
MORNING AT 12Z THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

FOR THIS EVENING, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AND SURFACE
THAT-E ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS
STILL LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS OF 18Z. MUCAPES FROM SPC
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS WERE AROUND
2000 J/KG BUT THERE WAS ALSO SOME INHIBITION TO OVERCOME AS WELL.
AT THIS TIME GIVEN SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF HEATING THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATE TODAY IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. A FEW OF THE NON HYDROSTATIC MODELS EVEN SUGGESTED
THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION NEAR OR
NORTHWEST OF THE GARDEN CITY AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AS AN
OUTFLOW FROM THE INITIAL COLORADO STORMS CROSSES WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.  AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON HOW OR IF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS IN COLORADO WILL DEVELOP. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS AND ADJUST FORECAST AS NEEDED. AT THIS
TIME WILL KEEP SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS. MAIN HAZARD THIS EVENING WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 50 TO 55
MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

ON FRIDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND EASTERN KANSAS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS BY LATE DAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM EASTERN COLORADO TOWARDS
NORTHWEST KANSAS. AT THIS TIME THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR LATE DAY
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN NORTHWEST
KANSAS SO WILL TRIM PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH 7 PM. THE 850MB TEMPERATURES FROM THE
NAM AND GFS AT 00Z SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE GREATER THAN 30C
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE 700MB TEMPERATURES VARY FROM
+14 TO +16C. GIVEN THESE 850-700MB TEMPERATURES LATE FRIDAY THE
AFTERNOON HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 100 TO NEAR 103 DEGREE
RANGE STILL APPEARS REASONABLE. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE THE 40S WILL RESULT IN THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER AM UNSURE IF THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REACH RED
FLAG WARNING CRITERIA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE CURRENT
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED. AS A RESULT WILL NOT UPGRADE THE FIRE WATCH
THAT IS CURRENTLY ISSUED FOR MOST OF WESTERN KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

FRIDAY WILL START OUT VERY WARM AND BECOMING WINDY.  THUS, IT SEEMS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BE MET, AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS
ISSUED IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES FROM 17Z FRI TO 02Z SAT.  THIS AREA
WHERE RH`S DROP TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AND WINDS GUST OVER 25 MPH
IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM JOHNSON CITY TO MONTEZUMA TO WAKEENEY.
IN ADDITION TO THE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS, MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE
RFW AREA WILL REACH THE 101 TO 104 DEGREE RANGE.  THERE WILL BE A
TROUGH EDGING EAST FROM COLORADO DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY, AND
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW ELEVATED STORMS, BASICALLY
NORTHWEST OF LINE FROM SYRACUSE TO GARDEN CITY TO HAYS LINE.  THESE
STORMS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE OF A SEVERE NATURE, BUT WIND GUSTS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.  ON SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL SAG DOWN INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS, AND BRING A FOCUS AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
STORMS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM SYRACUSE TO JETMORE TO SAINT
JOHN.  THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
PUT THAT WEATHER TYPE INTO THE GRIDS THIS EARLY.  THE FRONT WILL
EDGE FARTHER SOUTH BY SUNDAY, AND BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.  THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST
OF HIGHWAY 183, WHERE SOME SUBSTANTIAL RAIN IS POSSIBLE.  AN UPPER
WAVE WILL BE PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
SO THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
AND EXTENDING EAST OF HIGHWAY 183 INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURE WILL GO THROUGH A SLIGHT ROLLER-COASTER PATTERN.  FRIDAY
SHOULD BE HOT WITH HIGHS FROM 98 TO 103F, THEN DIP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  THEN THAT COLD FRONT WILL
SINK THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, AND
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S.  THAT SHOULD BE A WELCOME CHANGE FOR MOST
SOUTHWESTERN KANSANS.  THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE JUST  SOUTH OF
THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW A LOT OF SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AND
HIGHS WILL REBOUND BACK UPWARD INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO
NEAR 20KTS RANGE AS A WARM FRONT CROSSES WESTERN KANSAS. TONIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BACK INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE 850 TO 700MB LEVEL NORTH
OF THIS FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
VFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 100 TO 103 DEGREE
RANGE ON FRIDAY AS GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP. THIS
COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S WILL RESULT IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE TEENS FOR SEVERAL HOURS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE LOCATED IN
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN
EFFECT. OUTDOOR BURNING IS DISCOURAGED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  71 101  71  90 /   0  10  10  20
GCK  72 101  69  93 /  10  10  20  20
EHA  71  98  67  95 /   0  10  20  20
LBL  72  99  69  92 /   0  10  10  20
HYS  71 103  70  95 /  10  10  20  40
P28  71 100  72  92 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>077.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BURGERT
SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...BURKE
AVIATION...BURGERT
FIRE WEATHER...BURGERT