Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210548
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1248 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

A large, longwave upper level trough will continue to develop
across the western United States this weekend. With mid level flow
increasing across the Rockies, strengthening surface lee troughing
will result in increasing south winds and low level moistening.
Initially the moist axis will be situated across western Kansas
but by Monday and Tuesday this may shift into central and south
central Kansas. A warm front will pass northward into Kansas on
Saturday. A cold front associated with an ejecting lead shortwave
trough will pass across western Kansas Monday. By late next week,
the main upper level trough over the western United States will
move east and approach the plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Cloud ceilings will lower tonight due to diurnal cooling and
continued low level moisture advection. Temperatures will be held
up by clouds and wind with lows in the upper 50s. The warmest
readings on Saturday will be in western Kansas with upper 80s
behind the dryline, with slightly cooler readings in the upper 70s
to lower 80s in central Kansas to the north of the warm front.
There is a small chance of thunderstorms Saturday evening near the
intersection of the dryline and warm front and southwestward along
the dryline. These storms could be severe with large hail.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

There is a better chance of thunderstorms late Sunday ahead of the
dryline and these could be severe with very large hail, damaging
winds and possibly even a tornado or two. Additional thunderstorms
are possible Sunday night as the cold front passes in the wake of
a minor shortwave trough. Highs will be in the 80s, with warmest
readings once again in far western Kansas. There are chances for
thunderstorms through Friday across the central and southern
plains as upper level troughing over the southwestern United
States gradually moves eastward and approached the plains.The
locations of the various surface features such as fronts, drylines
and outflow boundaries will determine where thunderstorms will
develop and there is limited skill at refining these locations
several days ahead. That said, the best chance of thunderstorms
and severe weather Monday through Friday will be over central and
especially south central Kansas closer to the rich low level
moisture. High temperatures will remain fairly mild with mainly
upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows ought to be mainly in the 50s to lower
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Increasing surface moisture in upslope flow will enhance a
lowering of ceilings going into the overnight, hours. By around
12 UTC, a zone of waa/isent lift induced convection may develop
east of HYS, moving into central KS through the mid morning.
Additionally, surface based convection is likely to develop later
in the afternoon/early evening, from near tribune to Garden City,
and the eastward extent of propagation leaves some uncertainty.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  73  63  84 /  20  20  50  30
GCK  58  80  62  86 /  20  50  60  30
EHA  59  85  58  88 /  10  10  30  20
LBL  59  84  62  86 /  10  30  40  30
HYS  56  67  61  80 /  20  30  30  30
P28  59  72  62  81 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Russell


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