Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 290550
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1250 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late today near a
surface boundary that will extend from southeast Colorado into the
Panhandle of Texas. Once developed these storms will spread
northeast into southwest Kansas early this evening. Scattered
thunderstorms are then expected to continue and even expand across
western and south central Kansas during the overnight hours as
850mb warm air advection improves with 700mb to 500mb lapse rates
of 7 to 8C/km.

Widespread rain showers and thunderstorms can be expected during
the day on Friday as a 400mb potential vorticity anomaly,
associated with an upper level jet streak. approaches from the
southwest. Based on the expected cloud cover and widespread
precipitation on Friday will continue to favor highs only in the
upper 40s to lower 50s for all but south central Kansas. In south
central Kansas will trend towards or even undercut the coolest
guidance for highs.

Preciptable water Friday afternoon from the GFS and NAM is
forecast to be around 1 inch so although severe weather is not
anticipated at this time there will be a chance for moderate or
even a period of heavy rainfall with a few of these storms as the
upper level dynamics improve, especially across north central and
south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2016

Late Friday night/early Saturday widespread showers and
thunderstorms will begin to taper off from southwest to northeast
as an upper level trough crosses western Kansas. A surface ridge
axis, cooler air, and low clouds will then begin to move into
southwest Kansas. Given the cooling expected in the 0 to 0.5km
level from the NAM and GFS it does appears lows in the 30s will be
likely for most of western Kansas by early Saturday morning.
Temperatures will be in the 40 to near 45 degree range in south
central Kansas.

A brief break in the precipitation will then develop during the
day on Saturday as one upper level system moves across Nebraska
and the next upper level system begins to dig into the southwest
United States. As this next system approaches southwest Kansas
late Sunday into early next week there will be another chance for
widespread precipitation.

As for temperatures....for Saturday did favor highs climbing back
into the upper 50s to mid 60s given that southwest Kansas has the
potential for more afternoon sun, at least early. Highs only in
the 50s are then expected from Sunday through early next week
given that a cool dome of high pressure at the surface is forecast
to settle into the Central Plains along the return of clouds and
precipitation. Lows will be mainly in the 30s.

By Tuesday this next round of precipitation is expected to be
exiting western Kansas so may need to monitor how quickly clouds
will exit Tuesday night. Lows falling back to near 30 for portions
of western Kansas will be possible if skies do clear.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Upslope flow and moisture transport above the surface will lead to
LIFR CIGS by 12z and which will persist through the period.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected as an upper
level disturbance approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  49  37  60 /  90  90  70  10
GCK  43  44  35  58 / 100  90  60  10
EHA  43  45  34  59 /  80  80  30   0
LBL  46  48  37  61 /  80  80  40   0
HYS  42  48  40  56 /  80  90  80  20
P28  49  58  47  68 /  80  90  80   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Finch



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