Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 220544
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1244 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE IS THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT.
MODELS (IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF) HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE EVENT TONIGHT...NOT STARTING THE ONSET OF RAIN IN
THE ELKHART AREA UNTIL 01-03Z TIME FRAME AND THE HIGHWAY 283
CORRIDOR UNTIL 06-08Z. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE
RATHER COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE, BUT SOME SPORADIC THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AS FAR AS AMOUNTS GO, FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT IN A
WIDESPREAD ONE-HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS INCH EVENT, ENDING SOMETIME
MIDDAY FRIDAY (EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST). IN THE WAKE OF THE
PRECIPITATION EVENT, COOL, UPSLOPE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE,
AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S PRETTY MUCH ALL DAY. THE
FAR SOUTHWEST MAY RECOVER TO THE MID 60S, BUT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
FOR TOMORROW IS TOO WARM, AND THE OFFICIAL GRIDS FOLLOW A BLEND OF
THE ECMWF AND THE COOLEST HIGH-RES MODEL, THE WRF-ARW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY SPIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNER`S REGION AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE EJECTING NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SHORTWAVES MOVING AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
INCREASING LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. TOWARDS THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BRING UP ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS FAR WESTERN KANSAS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
BE HIGH THROUGHOUT THIS TIME FRAME, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED AN
INCH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, HOWEVER, A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
WITH SMALL HAIL AND WINDS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. A COLD FRONT
THEN SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
DECREASING CLOUDINESS. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT
FROM SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND TOWARDS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO DIP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ONLY
REACHING INTO THE 60S DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION FALLING. HOWEVER, IF THE CLOUDS BREAK OUT ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KANSAS A FEW PLACES COULD REACH AROUND 70 DEGREES. HIGHS
IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KANSAS TO LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE FIRST ROUND OF STRATIFORM RAIN IS ENTERING SOUTHWEST KANSAS AT
THIS TIME AND WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 6
HOURS. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY FALL INTO THE IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR
CATEGORY AS WELL OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES RAIN
COOLED. AFTER THAT, RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ENDING AT LEAST
TERMPORARILLY AT GCK AND DDC, AND EVENTUALLY AT HAYS, LEAVING MVFR
STRATUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TO BE SLOWLY ERODED BY
THE STRONG LATE MAY INSOLATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  66  58  76 /  60  60  40  40
GCK  53  67  56  77 /  50  50  40  40
EHA  55  71  54  77 /  40  40  20  10
LBL  56  67  57  78 /  60  60  20  20
HYS  52  64  57  75 /  50  50  50  40
P28  55  65  61  75 /  60  80  70  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...HOVORKA_42
AVIATION...RUSSELL


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