Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 121929
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
129 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1245 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

Temperatures have returned to February normals for a change this
afternoon, as much cooler surface high pressure builds into
northern Kansas. Surface high expected to be in the vicinity of
Hays by 6 pm. As such, NE winds will quickly weaken for the
remainder of the afternoon. Aloft, thick cirrus streams overhead,
well ahead of a strong closed low over Baja California at midday.

Tonight...Clouds will remain thick, with gradually lowering
ceilings, as upper low begins to approach through Sonora Mexico.
With the cloud cover, MOS guidance appears several degrees too
cold tonight, and opted for lower 30s instead at sunrise Monday.

All models show agreement, with a weak initial vorticity lobe
advecting into SW KS overnight. A band of light scattered showers
will result, favoring the SW zones first, then lifting northward
toward the I-70 corridor by midday Monday. This precipitation will
be light, with most locations receiving less than 0.10 inch QPF. A
few locales along the Oklahoma border have the best opportunity to
tally near 0.10 inch. As for precipitation type, mentioned a mix
of wet snowflakes with the light rain overnight, with
accumulations slim to none. After sunrise, and with 850 mb
temperatures positive above 0C, kept all precipitation as light
rain. At any rate, precipitation will be light with little in the
way of impacts.

Monday...Winterlike, for a change. Cloudy and cold, with
temperatures actually running several degrees below normal, in the
low to mid 40s. Kept chance pops for light rain for most zones
daylight Monday, favoring the southern 1/2 of the CWA by
afternoon. Expansive rain shield expected by 6 pm across W TX,
ahead of cutoff low ejecting to near El Paso. It appears the KS/OK
border will be on the northern periphery of this needed rainfall,
with the lion`s share remaining south of SW KS.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 117 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

Precipitation with the early week storm system looks to continue
through Monday night and Tuesday morning. A few snowflakes mixing
with the rain is still possible with possibler evaporative
cooling but most model output is in agreement with above 0C 850mb
temps.

Once the storm system moves out Tuesday we turn into another dry
period with an upper level ridge moving into the central plains.
Temperatures also look to warm by the end of the week with lower
70s possible by Thursday and around 70 for Friday.

The upcoming weekend will have another storm system in the
forecast which will bare monitoring with updated runs. The system
looks to have plenty of Pacific moisture and the Gulf looks to be
open at this point for the system. Widespread convection looks to
be the case from western Oklahoma into central Texas. The ECMWF
and GFS both have decent pops at this point for southwest Kansas
coming in from Sunday afternoon into night. I`m not sure if
convection is possible at this point for southwest Kansas but
there is the potential for it to happen.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

Broken to overcast cirrus this afternoon. NE winds will rapidly
weaken through 00z, as 1033 mb surface high moves to near HYS.
Surface winds will veer SEly this evening and overnight, but
remain light at less than 10 kts. Winds will continue to veer to
S/SW near 10 kts at all airports Monday morning. Cigs will
gradually lower through this TAF period, but VFR is expected to
continue, reaching as low as 4-5k ft AGL early Monday morning.
Models show excellent agreement with scattered -SHRASN spreading
northward across SW KS during the 06-18z Mon timeframe.
Precipitation will be light, so reduction to visibility will be
limited, and impacts on aviation minimal.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  44  30  53 /  30  40  30  10
GCK  32  44  29  52 /  30  30  20  10
EHA  30  42  30  49 /  50  50  40  30
LBL  30  42  30  50 /  40  50  40  30
HYS  33  47  29  54 /  10  30  20   0
P28  34  49  33  53 /  20  60  50  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Turner



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