Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221731
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1231 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Main focus during the short term period was pops. A few showers are
continuing early this morning. Additional development is expected later
today as a minor UL wave moves through. Meso and global models differ
with QPF, so broadbrushed the pops across the forecast district. Not
expecting a whole lot of rain with this activity, although a few spots
could see a couple tenths under the strongest of activity. Severe thunderstorms
looks unlikely as both shear and particularly CAPE are marginal. Only
calling for marginal wind and hail and that is probably being generous
with the threats. Otherwise, highs today will peak in the 60s, which
is from the cooler side of solutions considering all the precip and
cloud cover today. Lows mainly in the 40s are forecast for Tuesday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

On Tuesday, drier northerly flow aloft and at the sfc will prevail.
FB pops are slight, and only for the northeastern zones. Otherwise,
much of the area won`t see any precipitation. Even cooler highs are
expected Tuesday as a cool high pressure center prevails across the
Plains. Uneventful weather will continue through midweek with a dry
forecast. Moderating temperatures are expected Wednesday as high pressure
shifts off to the east and weak WAA resumes. 80s will be common Thursday
as the warm sector spreads northward. The EC is showing the potential
for nocturnal thunderstorms Friday and particularly Saturday during
the overnight periods. Confidence this far out is low and will have
to watch how the models evolve. Temperatures during the rest of the
extended period look pleasant with no pronounced hot or cold periods.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Scattered light rainshowers, along with isolated pockets of MVFR
cigs, will persist around the southwest and central Kansas
terminals through about 19-21z before moving southeast of the
region. Skies will be clearing from northwest to southeast behind
the showers as well. A cold front will push south across western
Kansas this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible for an hour or along and behind the front. Winds will
become northerly and gusty to 25 knots at times behind the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  47  67  42 /  40  20  20   0
GCK  70  46  65  41 /  50  30  10   0
EHA  69  47  65  43 /  20  30  10   0
LBL  68  47  66  43 /  40  20  10   0
HYS  69  47  65  42 /  50  30  20   0
P28  68  51  69  45 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Gerard



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