Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 052009
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
209 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1255 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

While a westerly flow aloft prevails across the Western High Plains,
precip chances will remain absent across western Kansas through
Wednesday as A west-northwest downslope flow continues to funnel
extremely dry air into the region. The cold air mass across the
high plains will be slow to erode tonight as surface high pressure
drops southward into the Texas Panhandle. Under mostly clear
skies with fairly light winds, should see lows generally down into
the 20s(F) tonight. An upper level shortwave will drop southeast
across the Upper Midwest ushering a weak frontal boundary through
western Kansas early Wednesday. This will reinforce the colder air
mass across the Western High Plains resulting in highs only up
into the 40s(F) again Wednesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 206 PM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

A dry pattern will persist through the weekend as a meridional
flow aloft develops across the Western High Plains downstream of
an increasingly amplified upper level ridge across the Intermountain
West. A series of upper level impulses moving down across the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will help send additional weak
frontal boundaries through the Central Plains supporting a
persistent north-northwesterly downslope flow across western
Kansas. This will reinforce the drier air already dominating the
region, and in turn hinder precip chances through the weekend.

Below normal temperatures are likely Thursday as another surge of
colder spreads south-southwest into western Kansas in wake of a
frontal passage the day prior. The NAM/ECMWF show H85 temperatures
dropping well below 0C by Thursday afternoon. Highs are only
expected to reach the 30s(F) across central Kansas with near 40F
still possible in extreme southwest Kansas. Temperatures will bounce
back Friday as more of a northwest downslope flow develops across
the high plains, allowing some erosion of the sub-freezing air
mass. Highs will climb easily into the 40s(F) in central Kansas
Friday afternoon with the lower to mid 50s(F) expected in southwest
Kansas. The warming trend lingers into Saturday with widespread
50s(F) across central and much of southwest Kansas. The lower 60s(F)
cannot be ruled out in extreme southwest Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1103 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Wednesday
morning. West-northwest winds 5 to 15kt will persist through early
Wednesday as surface high pressure shifts southward from southwest
Kansas into the Texas Panhandle during the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  23  46  19  37 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  22  45  19  38 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  22  44  22  39 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  22  46  20  40 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  25  45  20  35 /   0   0   0   0
P28  25  48  22  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson



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