059
FXUS63 KDDC 062200
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One or more strong to severe, fairly large thunderstorm
  clusters likely to move southeast across western Kansas
  through the night tonight.

- Main severe risk will be damaging straight line winds to 70
  mph, perhaps isolated higher than that, particularly west of
  Highway 283 and north of Highway 50.

- Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday
  and Monday Night and even into Tuesday as a fairly strong
  upper level jet remains across the High Plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Another night of thunderstorms in the forecast tonight,
with the main challenges being severity/magnitude of the
expected mesoscale convective system(s), timing, and placement
of the thunderstorm clusters tonight.

First of all, none of the convection allowing models (CAMs)
captured the ongoing small MCS moving southeast across
southwest Nebraska as of 20Z. This MCS was tapping into higher
SBCAPE with the southernmost storm SVR-warned about to move
almost straight south across the Kansas line. Should this
initial cluster make it down to the I-70 corridor, large hail to
1.5"+ in diameter and damaging winds to 70 mph would be the
main concern some time after 23Z (6 PM CDT). Otherwise, the
"main show" would be coming out of northeast/east central
Colorado later tonight at the nose of a 60kt 250mb jet streak.
Good low level upslope winds across western Kansas were
advecting upper 60s/around 70F dewpoints closer to the Colorado
line. Initial storms were developing along the Palmer Divide,
which will track east or east-southeast along I-70 into
northwestern Kansas, perhaps merging with the ongoing southwest
Nebraska MCS. A severe wind risk (60-70mph peak gusts) will
exist as the MCS (or a couple MCSs) mature(s) later this evening
as it moves into west central and southwest Kansas. The morning
12Z HREF probabilistic and ensemble mean convective fields show
a good signal of one or more MCSs rolling southeast through the
night. The latest 18Z deterministic NAM12 model is even more
aggressive than the 12Z run in its convective QPF signal all
through the night. We have increased POPs to 60+ across more of
southwest Kansas, and may need to bump them up even more.

There should be a decrease in the convective activity and/or
MCS(s) moving east of our southwest Kansas region in the 09-15Z
time frame early tomorrow morning. This will no doubt leave an
outflow boundary somewhere across our southwest KS region
tomorrow, but this will slowly diminish by mid to late
afternoon, so it is unclear how much of a role, if any,
remaining outflow boundaries play with respect to convective
initiation. 700mb temperatures will be slightly warmer, so there
may be a bit stronger capping inversion in place, but as
temperatures warm to around 90 degrees, it would not take much
low level convergence to initiate storms (outside of the more
obvious initiation across the higher terrain of Colorado). A
Slight Risk from SPC continues for the Day 2 Outlook tomorrow.

After Monday, the upper level ridge will continue to expand its
influence across the Colorado Rockies toward far western Kansas
with even warmer 700mb temperatures, however once again even
late Tuesday/Tuesday evening, good dewpoints in place (upper
60s/lower 70s) with southeasterly surface winds in place will
probably be enough for another round of storms across the
Central High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

VFR and light winds are expected to prevail through this TAF
period, outside of the influence of any thunderstorms.
Confidence regarding thunderstorm evolution through tonight is
low, with some models forecasting an organized mesoscale complex
rolling southeast across the airports, and other models dry.
Tried to split the difference in this set of TAFs for now,
mentioning VCTS/CB/VCSH 06-12z Mon for now. Amendments are
expected overnight pending radar trends. Primary risk to
aviation from any convection will be outflow wind gusts
40-50 kts.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner