000
FXUS63 KDDC 282308
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
508 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET, HOWEVER THE RAP
AND NAM WERE IN BOTH DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN WINDS IN THE
0 TO 500M AGL LEVEL CONTINUING AT 20 TO 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
THIS ALONG WITH THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT LITTLE WARMER THAN WHAT THE LATEST MOSGUIDE,MAV, AND MET
GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING. TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT OVERNIGHT WILL
STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
30S IN WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 40 IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR WILL INVADE WESTERN KANSAS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT, WHICH WAS LOCATED
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND MONTANA EARLIER THIS MORNING, CROSSES
WESTERN KANSAS. NAM, GFS, AND ECMWF WERE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS AVERAGING FROM 30 TO NEAR 40 KNOTS
BEHIND THIS FRONT BETWEEN 12Z THURSDAY AND 18Z THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION THE 0-1KM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL 8 TO 10C
BETWEEN 00Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. 12Z NAM INDICATED THAT THE
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM 10C TO 14C AT 00Z THURSDAY TO 0
TO 3C AT 00Z FRIDAY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. GFS WAS EVEN A FEW
DEGREES COOLER BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THESE
TRENDS IN COOLING TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST MOSGUIDE AND MAV WHICH WERE SIMILAR WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO AROUND 50 NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED RANGE. INITIALLY COOLER AND
SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWING AN EARLY THURSDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE RECENT
MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD THEN COME TO AN END AS LOWS FALL THROUGH
THE FREEZING MARK INTO THE 20S ONCE AGAIN.  THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN
CONTINUE TO BRING IN THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHICH
WILL HAVE IMPACTS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE GFS/AND ECMWF AS WELL AS
THE BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS SUPPORT A RELATIVELY WARM SOLUTION
WITH THE 700 MB LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DDC FORECAST AREA, OR
SIMPLY AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT PHASE OF THE EVENT
LOOKS MOST LIKELY LATE FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT/DRY CONVEYOR BELT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BOTH ARE INDICATING
PARTICULARLY HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S GOING THROUGH
THE MORNING ON SATURDAY, WHILE THE LATEST MOS IS ALSO TRENDING
WARMER WITH THE SURFACE LOWS. ADDITIONALLY, MODEL METEOGRAMS HAVE
RECENTLY SIGNIFICANTLY CUT ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE EVENT TO LESS THAN
THE LOW END OF ADVISORY CRITERIA IN WORST CASE SCENARIO. GFS COBB
SNOW OUTPUT SUGGESTS WELL UNDER A HALF INCH EVEN IN THE COLDER POST
FRONTAL AIR LATE SATURDAY.

WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY BREEZY AND COLDER CONDITIONS  OF SUNDAY.
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING  WHERE UNCERTAINTY SPREAD RANGED FROM THE UPPER TEENS
TO THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE BACK CLOSER TOWARD
THE NORMAL CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 15 TO 25KT WILL PERSIST
TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA
BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO NEBRASKA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  49  26  47 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  34  49  28  47 /   0   0   0  20
EHA  37  48  32  44 /   0   0   0  50
LBL  36  51  30  44 /   0   0   0  40
HYS  36  47  25  47 /   0   0   0  10
P28  41  51  26  46 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...JJOHNSON