000
FXUS63 KDDC 192039
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
339 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

...Updated for short term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

Upper level ridging will slowly build into western through Sunday.
As we have seen much of the summer, the NAM is still too warm with
high temperatures by several degrees, and by more than that at Hays
where low clouds persisted all day. As a result, surface based
convection along the lee trough on the western high plains has not
occurred this afternoon due to higher convective inhibition. There
is still a slight chance that storms will develop late this
afternoon but chances are dropping rapidly since there is no sign
of convection as of 320 pm. Any storms that develop could be
severe with large hail and damaging winds. However, if storms stay
farther west near the Colorado border in the drier air, then only
marginally severe storms would be expected. After any evening
storms die off, skies will become mostly clear later tonight.
South winds at 10 kts will keep temperatures from falling much
below the upper 60s. Redevelopment of low clouds tonight after they
burn off late this afternoon is not expected given the warming
airmass. Despite 3000-4000 j/kg surface based CAPE ahead of a
dryline on Sunday, the lack of upper level support given the
expected upper level ridging will tend to inhibit storm
development. Also, capping will probably continue to be stronger
than progged since surface temperatures should remain cooler than
the models (especially the NAM) suggest (around 100F at Garden
City, with mid to upper 90s farther east.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

A warm upper level ridge expands across the Central Plains into
Wednesday with some upper level disturbances rounding the top of the
ridge on late Monday and Tuesday. Will continue with slight chances
for rainfall far west on Sunday night, then bring slight chances
across western Kansas with the upper level wave on Monday into
Tuesday morning.

The upper ridge begins to flatten somewhat midweek into the Weekend
with another chance for thunderstorms mainly on Saturday with some
northern branch disturbances.

High temperatures will continue very warm into next Weekend with
upper 90s to around 100 with a lee trough and warm south winds.
Overnight lows will also be mild from 70 to 75 degrees.

Have lowered dewpoints a bit in the extended period and along with
highs near 100, heat indices should stay below advisory criteria of
105 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

Surface troughing in the lee of the Rockies and resultant south
winds were leading to an erosion in the low stratus clouds. Skies
at KDDC and KGCK had cleared as of 1730 UTC and expect clear skies
to persist at these sites through the period. MVFR CIGS will gradually
erode at KHYS through 22z with daytime heating.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  97  72  98 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  68 100  72 100 /  20  10  10  20
EHA  66  97  72  99 /  30  10  20  20
LBL  68  99  72  99 /  20  10  10  10
HYS  69  97  72 100 /  10  10  10  10
P28  69  95  72  96 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Finch