000
FXUS63 KDDC 271916
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
216 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Updated short term section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

An upper level ridge will continue to be present across the Southern
Plains and Rockies throughout the short term period with an upper
level long wave trough positioned across the eastern United States.
Mid levels of the atmosphere will be fairly saturated with partly to
mostly cloudy skies expected through tomorrow. A surface cold front
currently extends from eastern Colorado, down through the Panhandles
of TX and OK, then through northern Oklahoma. This frontal boundary
is expected to slowly sag southward into northern Texas tonight into
tomorrow. Cool and moist southeast flow will be observed behind this
feature bringing below normal temperatures to the CWA. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to form along and slightly behind the
aforementioned front. Most of the activity looks to remain south of
the area this evening into the overnight hours. However, there is
still a slight chance that a few of these storms could slide
northward and into far southwestern Kansas. Storm chances end by
sunrise tomorrow with partly cloudy skies expected into the early
afternoon. Additional thunderstorms are then possible again across
far western Kansas by late afternoon spreading east as the evening
progresses. Otherwise expect increasing cloud cover. Lows overnight
are expected to dip into the lower to mid 60s with highs tomorrow
ranging from the upper 70s across far southwestern Kansas to mid 80s
across central and south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Cooler than normal and at times, wet conditions are in store for the
extended period of the forecast. Beginning with Monday, extensive
clouds behind the initial frontal boundary in combination with light
easterly upslope surface flow should promote cooler temperatures,
even as cool as the ECMWF suggest (mid 70s in the western counties).
An increasing chance for post frontal instability showers also
exists Monday and into Tuesday as elevated warm moist air begins
advecting northeast from the Southern Rockies into the Plains. The
biggest change to the forecast database was an increase in PoPs as
we head into Tuesday night and Wednesday. The ECMWF and GFS show the
best QPF values in this timeframe associated with isentropic lift
induced rain and thunderstorms and a shortwave rotating through the
northwest upper flow.  Wednesday continues to be the least warm day
of the forecast period, with potential for highs around 15 degrees
below normal for the end of July. Convection chances will diminish
after Thursday with temperatures moderating through the 80s, but
remaining still about a standard deviation cool.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR conditions with low clouds AOA020 will be observed across the
GCK terminal for the next hour with decreasing clouds thereafter.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into tonight
with decreasing high clouds AOA100. Winds will generally be from
the northeast around 10 knots this afternoon decreasing and
shifting to more of a northerly direction around 5 knots this
evening into the overnight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  83  64  82 /  10  10  30  70
GCK  64  83  64  80 /  10  20  30  80
EHA  65  79  65  80 /  40  30  40  80
LBL  66  81  65  80 /  30  30  40  80
HYS  63  85  63  84 /   0  10  20  50
P28  66  86  66  85 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Hovorka_42