Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 290843
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
343 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

PARALLEL STRATIFORM CONVECTION WAS ONGOING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING, MAINLY AROUND HAYS AND FROM STAFFORD COUNTY
THROUGH COLDWATER AND ASHLAND. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PVA SIDE
OF THE UPPER TOUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND
ATTENDANT JET IN CENTRAL KANSAS. RELATIVE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BEHIND THE SYSTEM PROVIDED LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A DRY AND GENERALLY LESS ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST REMOVING
ANY FORCING MECHANISMS FOR DYNAMICALLY AIDED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. THE SURFACE WILL ALSO GENERALLY SEE A LACK OF
SURFACE/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE  TO SUPPORT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.
LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL AFTERNOON WHEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR FOLLOWING THE NAM SURFACE WIND
FORECAST. CLOUDS COULD BE SLOW TO EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTIES, BUT
A RAPID REBOUND IN TEMPERATURE SHOULD OCCUR ONCE INSOLATION IS
UNIMPEDED. MID 80S ARE THE MOST PLAUSIBLE RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND
80 DEGREES MAY BE FOUND OUT TOWARD THE COLORADO LINE WHERE
TEMPERATURE TENDENCY IS NOT AS POSITIVE. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, EVEN CALM AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OTHER THAN
RESIDUAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. IT IS PLAUSIBLE TEMPERATURES COULD
FALL INTO THE UPPER  50S ACROSS THE SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER
IN THE WEST, WHERE DEW POINTS WILL BE DECREASING WITH TIME.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY
WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. ALONG WITH A FAIRLY WEAK FLOW ALOFT,
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP
CHANCES PICK UP A LITTLE SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT
BASIN REGION. A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT OF
THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS AS A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS.
ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK, MODEST INSTABILITY
WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG AND FAVORABLE ENOUGH
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE VICINITY OF A
DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH. WIDESPREAD SEVERE IS UNLIKELY.

PRECIP CHANCES MAY PICK UP A LITTLE MORE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN OPEN SHORTWAVE TRANSITIONS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE IN
THE DAY WHILE A PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE
CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE UP INTO MUCH OF KANSAS. MEANWHILE, A
+90KT UPPER LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE OPEN WAVE IS PROJECTED TO
DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES NOSING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS. AS A RESULT, THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FIRE UP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY BE MORE LIMITED
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT INTO KANSAS WITH WEAKER DYNAMIC
SUPPORT ALOFT. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST IN CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE LOW LEVEL FORCING
WILL BE MORE IDEAL NORTHEAST OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. ALTHOUGH LESS CERTAIN, THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT SOMEWHERE
GENERALLY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SEASONAL SATURDAY AS
SURFACE PRESSURE BEGINS TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL HELP QUICKLY RETURN A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO
WESTERN KANSAS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO
THE OVERALL AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS
ONLY UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S(F) IN CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE
LOWER 90S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SOME WARM
AIR ADVECTION IS LIKELY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW DRAWS
WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. WIDESPREAD 90S(F) ARE LIKELY TO FINISH OUT
THE WEEKEND AS A RESULT. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MONDAY IN
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS BY MID DAY
DROPPING HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S(F) TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL AFFECT
THE HAYS TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT ONE TO POSSIBLY TWO HOURS AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. POST FRONTAL SURFACE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTH UNTIL AT LEAST MID
AFTERNOON FRIDY AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  61  90  68 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  88  59  91  67 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  88  61  91  67 /  10  10  10  10
LBL  89  61  91  68 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  85  61  89  68 /  10  10  10  10
P28  90  66  90  69 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RUSSELL
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...RUSSELL


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