000
FXUS63 KDDC 031932
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
132 PM CST Tue Dec 3 2013

...Update to long term discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

At 12z Tuesday a -35c 500mb low was located over Idaho/western
Montana. A +100kt 300mb jet streak was located in the based of
this upper low and extended from northern Nevada into southern
Wyoming. 700 mb level difluent flow appears to be located across
eastern Wyoming. This was located near the left exit region of
the 300mb jet. Across the Central Plains earlier this morning the
850mb temperatures ranged from +10C at North Platte to +15c at
Amarillo. Dodge City this morning had a 850mb temperature of +13c.
A surface cold front was located across Nebraska at 12z Tuesday.
North of this surface cold front low clouds, gusty north winds and
light snow/fog were observed from the surface observations across
eastern Wyoming and northwest Nebraska. Surface temperatures under
the status were mainly in the 20s. 850mb temperatures north of
this front varied from -9c at South Dakota to -13c at Glasgow MT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

Low level moisture was slowly advecting northward into south central
and southeast Kansas early this morning. This was manifesting itself
as areas of locally dense fog across north central Oklahoma into
southeast Kansas. The High Resolution Rapid Refresh model is
suggesting that fog could be developing into the Medicine Lodge and
Pratt areas by around sunrise and continue into this morning before
burning off. Will add some areas of locally dense fog to the gridded
forecast for a few hours this morning

The upper low and trough over the northern Rockies will continue to
dig south and southeast today. All of the 00z models have slowed the
passage of the front across western Kansas from previous runs. Ahead
of the front, westerly winds will develop today across far southwest
Kansas. This will likely help boost temperatures to near or around
70 in locations from Johnson and Elkhart to around Liberal. Have
raised high temperatures several degrees in that area as well as a
few degrees more around Garden City and Dodge City. With less of a
downslope component expected over central and south central Kansas,
highs should top out in the low to mid 60s.

The cold front should be moving to a position along I-70 by sunset
and then continuing south through the remainder of south central and
southwest Kansas by around or shortly after midnight. Gusty north
winds will develop tonight and there could be a period of time
behind the front that winds are approaching or meeting advisory
criteria. For now will let the next shift assess any need for wind
headlines tonight. Colder air and stratus will push south across
western Kansas overnight. Temperatures should range from around 20
over west central and far southwest Kansas to the mid 20s over south
central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

Wednesday night/Thursday:

The 03.012Z ECMWF, NAM, and GEM were indicating the potential for some
snow Wednesday night but mainly into Thursday as an 145 kt 250 hPa
jet streak moves across the region. This will create an ageostrophic
response (i.e. acceleration) and cause some synoptic lift across the
forecast area of responsibility. On top of that, the models indicate
low level 285 Kelvin isentropic lift on top of the cold airmass. The
GFS is the oddball out and was ignored as it did not match ensemble
mean nor the aforementioned consensus in the deterministic runs. Will
have to watch for a sneaky snow advisory snow amount being met. One
fly in the ointment is that the low levels are very dry (as expected
with an Arctic intrusion), so this could reduce probabilities for more
significant precipitation measurement. Of course, not ready to buy into
the thermodynamic profiles (particularly the NAM) this far out, but
did trend with higher pops, qpf, and lower temperatures. If a snow pack
does come into fruition, the minimums into Friday morning will have
to be watched as they could bottom into negative territory. Otherwise,
midweek will be cold and have gone with bias corrected mos guidance.

Friday and beyond:

Friday through Saturday will feature a precipitation free forecast as
the region will be between synoptic systems. The next chance of precipitation
in the form of snow will be on Sunday as another trof digs across the
central Rockies and eventually ejects out across the prairies. It is
too early to hammer out details this far out and have stuck with the
weighted blend solution. Temperatures will continue to remain below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

NAM, and HRRR were both in generally good agreement with the
timing of a cold front as it crosses western Kansas early this
evening. As this front passes, southerly winds at less than 10kts
will shift to the north and increase into the 20 to near 25 kt
range for several hours. Based on the latest model runs of the
HRRR and NAM the wind shift is expected to occur around 00z at
HYS. The wind shift is expected between 02z and 05z at DDC and
GCK. In addition to the gusty north winds following the frontal
passage MVFR status is expected to spread south across western
Kansas overnight. Based on surface observations at 16z north of
this front in Nebraska and bufr soundings the cloud bases are
expected to range from 1000 to 1500 feet.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  21  29  10  13 /   0   0  10  50
GCK  21  27  11  12 /   0   0  30  50
EHA  21  27   7  13 /   0  10  30  50
LBL  23  30  13  13 /   0   0  10  50
HYS  21  29   9  17 /   0   0  20  10
P28  29  36  14  19 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert