Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 070623

123 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2014


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

Short range models indicate an upper level shortwave exiting the
Northern Rockies and pushing east-southeast into the Northern
Plains today bringing the possibility for precip from the Dakotas
this afternoon southward into Nebraska and potentially portions of
Western Kansas tonight. As the shortwave approaches, an attendant
cold front will push southward into western Kansas this evening.
Low level moisture will continue to pool ahead of the front with
H85 dewpoints in excess of 10C across central and southwest Kansas.
Meanwhile, an upper level jet core associated with the shortwave
is projected to dive southeast across the Dakotas this afternoon
and into Nebraska toward this evening. As a result, thunderstorm
development is likely across Nebraska this afternoon with storms
migrating into northern Kansas tonight. The better chance for
storms is expected across central Kansas in the vicinity of the
I-70 corridor where proximity to the upper level jet will be
closest. Any convection is likely to be high based with the
primary threat being gusty outflow winds.

Very warm temperatures will continue today as a lee side trough
re-establishes itself by this afternoon strengthening a southerly
flow into western Kansas. This will draw slightly warmer air into
the area today pushing highs near to slightly above 100F this
afternoon. Look for lows down into the 60s(F) across west central
Kansas tonight in wake of a cold front pushing through western
Kansas overnight. Lows are still expected in the lower 70s(F)
across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)

Typical summertime weather will continue in the Central Plains
through the extended forecast period. A mean long wave ridge will
remain anchored over the Rockies and will retrograde slightly as a
vigorous upper level trough near the British Columbia coast phases
with an upper level cyclone moving into northern Saskatchewan and
drops into the mean long wave trough near 85W Tuesday. The ridge
will build back into the Central Plains by Thursday an upper level
cyclone currently near the Aleutians moves through the mean long
wave trough in the eastern Pacific and reaches central Canada. The
ridge will retreat west again next weekend as the vigorous upper
level trough digs southeast into the eastern United States long wave
trough position. The ECMWF is considerably slower and deeper than
the GFS as the Canadian trough drops into the mean long wave
position next weekend. Most of the GEM ensemble members and the
00Z GFS ensembles are less amplified than the ECMWF, as is the
ESRL reforecast solution. The less amplified GFS solution largely
was used for minor grid adjustments.

Tropical thunderstorms remain suppressed in the Indian Ocean, and
there is little evidence of a coherent eastward propagating Madden
Julian Oscillation. Atmospheric relative angular momentum is near
climatology with little indication of significant torques to effect
a large change.

Following the temporary amplification of the east coast long wave
trough next weekend, ridging will build across the central and
southern United States, and several days of seasonably hot weather
with only minimal chances for thunderstorms near the persistent lee
trough as high level moisture flows around the subtropical
anticyclone. The next opportunity for some cooling with a front may
come around 19-20 July, subject to the usual high level of
uncertainty with such events.

A cold front will move into northern Kansas Monday evening under a
strong elevated mixed layer. The best chance for an organized
cluster of thunderstorms will be in from southeast Nebraska across
northeast Kansas into Missouri Monday night, but a few thunderstorms
are possible along the boundary near Interstate 70 Monday evening.
The front will move into northern Oklahoma Tuesday morning, and
drier air with dewpoints in the upper 40s and 50s will invade
Kansas. A few high based showers in a region of mid level
frontogenesis may develop early Tuesday morning and gradually
dissipate before noon. Surface based thunderstorms will be well
south of the Kansas border Tuesday afternoon, but upslope flow may
support development of thunderstorms in eastern Colorado that will
move into western Kansas during the evening hours. Pressures will
fall in the lee of the Rockies as the mid level flow becomes more
zonal on Wednesday, and the old frontal boundary will begin to lift
north as a warm front. Isentropic lifting over the boundary as a
modest low level jet develops Wednesday night will support
considerable thunderstorm development from northwest into south
central Kansas. Friday and Saturday will be windy and warm as high
pressure aloft builds into the Central Plains. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible along a weak cold front that will move
into northwest Kansas Saturday afternoon.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Monday
evening. Winds will remain light and variable through late this
morning as a weak cold front pushing southward across northwest
Kansas moves further south before washing out across southwest
Kansas. A surface low will develop across eastern Colorado this
afternoon turning winds south to southwesterly 15 to 25kt.


DDC 102  70  90  64 /   0  10  10  20
GCK 101  68  90  63 /   0  10  10  20
EHA 100  68  90  64 /   0  10  20  30
LBL 102  70  90  65 /   0  10  20  30
HYS 102  67  86  63 /  30  30  10  10
P28 100  73  93  67 /   0  20  20  20




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