Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 141808
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
108 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Models this morning appear to be doing a decent job with
precipitation continuing near and east of Dodge City early this
morning where the better 850mb warm air advection near the nose of
a low level jet moves north across central Kansas. Severe weather
this morning from these storms is not expected at this time. This
area of early morning convection is then expected to lift north
northeast by early this afternoon.

Another round of convection will then be possible late day as a
stronger upper level trough exits the Rockies and begins to cross
eastern Colorado and western Kansas. As this upper wave begins to
cross western Kansas late day the 0-1km moisture convergence will
improve along a cold front that will be located near and east of
highway 283. Also better instability and shear will be present
late day ahead of this next approaching wave so there will be a
chance for some of these storms late Saturday to be strong or
possibly even marginal severe. Area most favorable for these
stronger storms will be along and east of a Stafford to Coldwater
line with the main hazard being 60 mph winds gusts along with
hail up to the size of quarters.

Behind the cold front late Saturday afternoon strong northwest
winds can be expected based on the reinforcement of cooler air
spreading across western Kansas, and forecast mean wind speeds in
the 0-1km level, and 850mb winds. Winds of 30 to 35 mph not out of
the question for several hours late Saturday afternoon behind
this cold front and wind gusts of 45 mph also being possible.

Gusty northwest winds will decrease after midnight as the upper
wave/cold front moves east across central Kansas and an area of
high pressure starts to build into western Kansas. The lightest
winds around 12z Sunday are still forecast to be near the Colorado
border and based on the expected clear skies, magnitude of the
cold air returning, and light winds the current Freeze Watch still
looks on track. Still that some differences still exist on how
quickly and exactly where the lightest winds will be early Sunday
morning am currently favoring keeping the Freeze watch in place
for now. Will continue to look at the latest models as they become
available and adjust as needed.

As for temperatures today will be favoring raising the highs
based on the wedge of warm air forecast by all the models in the
850-800mb level, good mixing potential, and a more shallow layer
of low level moisture. Highs climbing back into the lower 80s
appearing more likely now south of Dodge City before temperatures
begin to fall during the mid to late afternoon as cold air
advection improves across western Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

A progressive upper level trough will move quickly east across
the Mississippi and Ohio Valley on Sunday as a northwesterly flow
develops across the Western High Plains. At the surface a cool
dome of high pressure will build across western Kansas and based
on the 850mb temperatures forecast at 00z Monday the highs are
expected to be mainly in the low to mid 60s. Could be a few
degrees warmer across far western Kansas where westerly down slope
flow begins to improve.

Early next week an upper level ridge axis will move across the
western United States as a down slope northwesterly flow continues
across eastern Colorado and western Kansas. This continues to
support a warming trend next week as temperatures climb from
around 70 on Monday into the 75 to near 80 degree range mid week.
Precipitation chances still appear low through Wednesday despite
several upper level waves rotating around the upper ridge axis and
down the northwest flow across the central Plains.

Wednesday and Thursday a stronger upper level trough is forecast
to move out of the Central Rockies and across the West Central
High Plains. As this next, more significant, upper wave passes
moisture still appears limited so precipitation chances late week
still appear small for western Kansas. There will be a chance for
some slightly cooler air to filter into southwest Kansas late week
behind a weak cold front but what little, if any, cooler air that
does filter into western Kansas will brief with warmer
temperatures expected to return by early next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

A cold front will pass through the TAF sites from 21 to 00z,
with north winds at 25 kts. Until then, southwest winds
will shift to the north. MVFR CIGS at KHYS will improve
to VFR this afternoon with daytime heating and frontal passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  36  63  40 /  30  10   0   0
GCK  84  32  63  38 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  90  33  63  40 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  91  35  63  37 /  20  10   0   0
HYS  71  35  63  39 /  30  10   0   0
P28  84  40  63  41 /  60  60   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for KSZ061-
062-074.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Finch



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