Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261133

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
633 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Today is another tricky temperature forecast. Mesoscale models (ARW,
NAM, NMMB) all suggest that stratus will stick around for most of the
day. It appears that the warm sector/warm front will remain south into
Okla and will not make it into Kan. Therefore, have considerably reduced
highs for today than previously forecast. NW zones might barely make
it out of the 40s. In the SE, lower 60s could be possible, although
these locations might not make it out of the 50s. This is particularly
true if the warm front does not move any north. Both ARW and NMMB break
out precipitation north of the 500-hPa low axis today across the central,
northern, and eastern zones. Have adjusted the highest pops as a result.
Think that the most severe thunderstorms will remain into Oklahoma.
Elevated hailers could be possible across the far SE zones. Elevated
LHP suggests hail might make it up to 1", but even MUCAPE will be limited.
Thinking up to 1" hail and 50-60 mph outflows are the main threats.
There also could be a cold core associated storm (low topped supercell)
that tracks along the warm front that could produce a tornado. This
is possible across NW Okla and not for the forecast district.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

The precipitation will exit the area early Monday as the 500-hPa low
quickly moves away from the forecast district. Shortwave ridging will
build in behind with a dry forecast following. Highs on Monday should
rebound back into the 60s with a weak WAA pattern eventually developing.
Attention then turns to the late Tuesday and into Wednesday period.
The EC still shows a large low across the Desert SW with considerable
moisture advection into the Great Plains. The warm sector will most
likely be E/SE of the forecast area, however, a baroclinic zone and
isentropic lift will set the stage for a heavy rain event late Tuesday
and into Wednesday morning. A few inches could be possible with locally
higher amounts depending on the track of the low. Severe weather will
be on the unlikely side as SW Kansas will remain on the cold side of
the synoptic system. The 00Z EC run was a little lighter on precip
amounts than compared to the 12Z run, however, the overall consistency
of this model to show widespread rain across the FA is still important.
Beyond that, another chance for rain might enter the picture late in
the period as another wave with decent low level moisture impacts the
forecast district. Temps look to be fairly seasonal, maybe a touch
below in days of heavy rain.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Low level moisture will increase this morning as a east to
southeasterly up slope flow continues. IFR to LIFR stratus and fog
will be possible at DDC and GCK for the next several hours and
then the visibilities will begin to improve and ceilings will
increase into the MVFR category towards 18z. VFR conditions will
be possible between 18z and 21z. Scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are expected after 21z as an upper level low crosses
southwest Kansas. Winds today will be easterly at 10 to 15 knots.
Tonight these winds will back to the north as an area of low
pressure at the surface moves across northwest Oklahoma.


DDC  57  39  67  42 /  50  50   0   0
GCK  51  37  68  43 /  50  50   0   0
EHA  58  36  67  42 /  20  10   0  10
LBL  58  38  68  44 /  20  20   0   0
HYS  54  40  63  42 /  60  60   0   0
P28  63  45  67  43 /  60  60  10   0


Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ030-



LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Burgert is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.