000
FXUS63 KDDC 151428
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
928 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 928 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

12z NAM suggests a stormy evening and night ahead, with a strong
MCS propogating slowly across SW KS. Initial convective
development is expected along the CO/KS border in the 5 pm
timeframe, with upscale growth into a complex toward central
Kansas through midnight. NAM suggests 2-4" of rain is possible
whereever the expected MCS decides to track tonight. For now,
increased pops through tonight, and added heavy rain/gusty wind
wording to the grids. May have to increase pops further, and will
need to examine hydrology issues through tonight, if the slow-
moving MCS materializes as 12z NAM suggests.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Highs clouds will give way to breaks of sun this afternoon. Given
the expected sunshine and 850mb temperature trends from 00z
Tuesday to 00z Wednesday the highs today will be at least as warm
as yesterday, most likely a couple of degree warmer. The previous
forecast with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s still looks
closer to what we will have than the slightly cooler guidance so
will stay close to the previous forecast for highs today.

By late today a +60 knot upper level jet will extend from the
the northeast panhandle of Texas to eastern New Mexico with the
left exit region forecast to be located across southeast Colorado
and southwest Kansas. An area of low pressure will be deepening
across southeast Colorado late day as a surface boundary/warm
front begins lifts north into extreme southwest Kansas. Given the
late day instability, 850mb warm air advection, and moisture
return ahead of this boundary surface boundary along with the
location of the left exit region of the upper level jet there will
be a chance for some widely scattered thunderstorms after 3 pm
across southwest and south central Kansas. Preciptable water is
forecast to be greater than 1.5" across western Kansas so at this
time it appears that heavy rainfall will be possible from any of
these storms that does develop late today and early tonight. Wind
gusts up to 70 mph and around half dollar size hail will also
possible from the stronger storms.

Storms will continue through overnight as the eastern Colorado
convection moves across western Kansas through midnight. After
sunset the hail threat will decrease while the potential for heavy
rains and strong winds continue. Convection continuing through
early Wednesday morning will possible, especially across north
central Kansas as a 400mb PV begins to cross southwest Kansas
after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Some lingering convection will be possible early Wednesday
morning as an upper level trough crosses the central Kansas. A
cool dome of high pressure will build into western Kansas during
the afternoon as a surface frontal boundary drops south across
Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle. The chance for precipitation
Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday currently appears low
and highs mainly in 85 to 90 degree range across western Kansas
Wednesday and Thursday still looks on track.

The next chance for convection for will be on Thursday night as
another upper level trough, embedded in the west southwesterly
flow, crosses the central and southern Rockies and moves out into
the plains. With a moist up slope flow present north of the
surface boundary across the panhandle of Oklahoma/southeast
Colorado and southwest Kansas this currently appears to be the
most favorable area for late day and evening convection. This area
of convection will move east during the overnight hours so much
of southwest Kansas and possibly even south central Kansas will
have a chance for this next round of thunderstorms. Again heavy
rainfall will be possible and these storms may also contain some
gusty winds and hail, especially early Thursday night.

How quickly these storms cross western Kansas will be key for any
early morning convection on Friday across south central Kansas,
but by late Friday afternoon and Friday night it appears that
there will be another chance for convection across all of western
Kansas once again as the next in a series of upper waves cross the
Western High Plains. The chance for thunderstorms will continue
through the weekend into early next week with the better
opportunity for western Kansas being Sunday night.

After a brief cool down mid week to late week the temperatures
are expected to rebound back into the 90s over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

An upper level disturbance will approach the plains this evening
and tonight. Ahead of this feature, south winds will increase
today. There is a chance of t-storms near the terminals between 00
and 09z with strong winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  91  68  87  62 /  20  50  30  10
GCK  91  65  85  60 /  30  40  20  10
EHA  91  63  85  61 /  40  40  10  10
LBL  94  67  87  63 /  40  40  10  10
HYS  89  68  83  62 /  30  50  40  10
P28  90  72  91  67 /  20  40  30  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Finch