Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 101701

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1201 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

...Updated Aviation...

Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

The synoptic pattern through Sunday will be characterized
by upper level troughing over the northern plains and upper
midwest and a baroclinic zone across the southern and central
plains. A component of the mid level flow across the Rockies
will result in weak low level troughing over the southern high
plains and low level moisture inflow into southwestern Kansas
along with weak cold fronts approaching from the north before
stalling. Unseasonable strong mid to high level flow across the
Rockies with embedded disturbances can be expected. There is no
sign even after this weekend of upper level ridging returning to
the plains. Instead, a mainly zonal flow pattern with embedded
disturbances will develop and persist, along with continued ample
low level moisture from the south.


Issued at 913 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Updated grids and forecast products through tonight to align with
current trends and thinking. Presently, weak thunderstorms are
entering western Morton county, with stronger activity in eastern
Colorado approaching Hamilton county from the west. Included some
pops in the short term to accomodate this activity. HRRR/12z NAM
solutions spread this activity into the SW zones through midday,
and will probably need to increase pops again for this scenario.
Storm intensity will likely increase by afternoon as instability
increases. Much more concerned about severe potential this evening
and tonight. New 12z NAM shows continuity from many of its
previous runs, showing MCS generation starting near the KS/CO
border north of Syracuse around 7 pm, with a severe forward-
propogating MCS blasting its way SE across SW KS this evening and
tonight, exiting the southern zones (Oklahoma border) by 4 am.
Included large hail and damaging winds in the grids for the NW
zones this afternoon. More importantly, included damaging winds
and heavy rain in the grids for all zones this evening and
tonight. A high end damaging wind event is possible, given the
strong convective /QPF signal 12z NAM is displaying. Along with
increasing severe mention in products, will be enhancing severe
risk in social media, perform a conference call with emergency
management around midday, and coordinate with SPC to increase
severe risk categories (particularly for wind and for tonight).


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

A weak cold front will approach western Kansas this evening as
a disturbance in northwesterly flow passes to our northeast.
Ample low level moisture, surface heating and 40-50kt 0-6 km
bulk shear all point to the possibility of thunderstorms,
some severe. Supercell structures are possible this afternoon
and early this evening before the convection evolves into a
large cluster, possibly accompanied by damaging wind. This event
will end in the late evening hours along the Oklahoma state line.
Hail as large as tennis balls and wind gusts in excess of 70 mph
are expected with the strongest storms. Highs today should reach
into the 80s after the morning fog burns off. Temperatures tonight
will fall back into the lower to middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

There are chances for thunderstorms every day, except perhaps
for Sunday. Heavy rainfall will be the main concern although
given the aforementioned upper level pattern with upper level jet
persisting, severe weather certainly can`t be ruled out.
Placement of low level boundaries and air mass recovery will be
key to any severe episodes and these won`t be known with much
detail until perhaps the day before. High temperatures will be
mainly in the upper 70s to 80s unless it happens to be raining in
the afternoon. Lows should be in the lower to middle 60s given
that dewpoints should stay close to that range along with light
nighttime winds.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Complicated TAF package with convection likely impacting aviation
at various times through tonight, followed by IFR/LIFR stratus
cigs Friday morning. Tried to keep the 18z TAFs simple for now,
acknowledging that many amendments will be needed over the next 24
hours based on convective/radar/stratus trends. Strong convection
will impact LBL/GCK and surrounding areas through midday. Primary
convective event is expected during the 00-09z Fri time frame,
when models depict an organized convective complex impacting most
if not all of the airports. Primary risk from this convection will
be outflow wind gusts in excess of 50 kts. Inserted convective
TEMPO groups in the 18z TAFs when storms are most likely.
Convective outflow-reinforced cold front will also pass this
evening with gusty NE winds, gusting to near 30 kts even outside
of convection. Finally, have high confidence that flight
categories will degrade after 06z Fri, with IFR/LIFR stratus cigs
expected. Reduced vis in BR/FG also expected Friday morning.


DDC  86  64  83  66 /  40  80  20  50
GCK  85  62  81  65 /  50  80  20  50
EHA  87  62  80  64 /  30  80  20  50
LBL  90  65  82  67 /  30  80  20  50
HYS  84  62  82  65 /  50  60  10  50
P28  90  67  85  68 /  50  70  30  50




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