Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 131512
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
912 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 908 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

WV imagery indicates a closed off upper level low shifting slowly
eastward across the Desert Southwest creating a difluent southwest
flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a broad
area of high pressure is drifting east across the Central Plains.
Widely scattered showers continue to lift northeast across western
and central Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 311 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

An upper level low will move along southern portions of New
Mexico today, then into western Texas tonight. A weak vorticity
lobe will be located across west central and northern Kansas this
morning bringing a light mix of light rain and snow. Little to no
accumulation is expected in this area. This precipitation will
then change over to rain by the afternoon. A second piece of
energy will move across Oklahoma and the TX/OK panhandles this
afternoon into this evening. A few showers may make it into our
CWA with the best chance along the KS/OK border. I kept the chance
of precipitation along the KS/OK border tonight but believe most
of this will be well south, out of the forecast area. Skies will
be mostly cloudy through tonight with the exception of along I-70
where clearing will be possible after midnight. Winds will
generally be from a southerly direction today shifting to a
northerly direction tonight. Highs today will only reach into the
40s with lows tonight falling to around freezing.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 311 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

There could be a stray shower along the KS/OK border tomorrow
morning, otherwise expect decreasing cloudiness from north to
south. Mostly clear skies are anticipated by Tuesday evening.
Mostly clear skies and dry conditions will hang around the
forecast area through at least Friday night as an upper level
ridge builds first over the western United States then shifts
eastward over the Plains. Another storm system may move through
the area this weekend but confidence is low at this time. As for
temperatures, highs will generally be in the low 50s tomorrow then
mid to upper 50s Wednesday. Strong downsloping winds are expected
Thursday and Friday leading to highs reaching into the upper 60s.
Highs may reach into the low to mid 60s this weekend. Lows will
dip into the upper 20s Tuesday night with 30s through the
remainder of the long term forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 643 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

A mid level short wave lifting north across the area is
responsible for a band of rain this morning. The rain band moving
over freezing surface temps was warming the layer, preventing
FZRA. Ceilings will remain in the VFR category. Additional rounds
of showers cannot be ruled out going forward but significant
impact to aviation (restricted vsbys etc) are not expected at
least through this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  47  32  51  27 /  30  30  10   0
GCK  45  31  52  26 /  40  30   0   0
EHA  46  31  49  28 /  40  40  20   0
LBL  42  32  50  26 /  40  40  20   0
HYS  47  29  53  27 /  80  20   0   0
P28  49  34  52  30 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Russell



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