Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 201125
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
625 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Cold front now dropping though south central Kansas which was the
focus for surface based convection earlier. Determining the extent
of leftover mid level stratiform clouds will be on issue early this
morning, as well as any showers across the northern counties
associated with the elevated front. Going through the early morning
we might see a few showers from near Scott City to Wakeeney, if any
at all. A relatively cool day will follow the post frontal pattern,
with models and  MOS varying between the upper 40s and 50s for a max
temperatures range, despite full insolation.  The day will remain
dry with the next chance for precipitation not coming until very
late in the second period at best (early Friday morning).

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 213 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

By Friday, southwest and central Kansas will still be in the cool
sector of a developing synoptic scale storm pattern. Both the GFS
and ECMWF show our area of KS in the cold conveyor belt region with
potential for severe storms in the southern Plains. The pattern
would suggest an initial round of scattered thunderstorms early in
the event followed by rain with only isolated convection heading
though late in the day Friday. Models are in the neighborhood of an
inch of more precipitation for the event on average.

Saturday night and Sunday morning may be cold enough for frost
development especially in the western counties. The remainder of
the period will bring dry weather with a warming trend. Elevated
fire weather conditions will likely return by early next week.
Models develop the next precipitation chances around day 7
(Thursday).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this
evening. Northeasterly winds 10 to 20kt will persist across across
southwest and central Kansas through early this afternoon as
surface high pressure shifts eastward across the Northern Plains.
Winds will then turn more easterly 5 to 15kt this evening as the
surface high pushes further east into the Upper Midwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  47  52  40 /   0  50  70  40
GCK  69  47  50  38 /   0  40  70  30
EHA  70  47  56  38 /   0  40  60  20
LBL  72  48  54  39 /   0  50  70  20
HYS  68  47  54  41 /   0  10  70  50
P28  71  51  55  42 /  10  50  70  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson


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