Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 091814
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1214 PM CST Tue Jan 9 2018

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 322 AM CST Tue Jan 9 2018

Upper level ridging will slide eastward over the Southern Plains
today then into the Lower Mississippi Valley tonight. Meanwhile,
an upper level low currently just off the coast of California will
slide through the Desert Southwest today then into the Four
Corners region tonight. Towards the surface, a trough of low
pressure will be located across eastern Colorado. This will lead
to south to southwest winds today through tonight. No
precipitation is expected through the short term forecast with
decreasing cloudiness this morning with mostly clear skies this
evening into the overnight period. As for temperatures, highs
today are expected to range from around 60 degrees across central
Kansas to low 70s across far southwestern Kansas. Lows tonight are
progged to range from the lower 30s across west central Kansas to
around 40 degrees along the KS/OK border.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 322 AM CST Tue Jan 9 2018

The upper level low mentioned in the short term section will move
into the Central Rockies Wednesday, then Central Plains Wednesday
night. Cloudiness will increase as this system approaches with
Mostly cloudy skies expected Wednesday night. Precipitation
chances increase Wednesday evening with the best chance Wednesday
night. Temperatures fall below freezing Wednesday night with all
precipitation expected to change over to all snow by sunrise
Thursday. It is still to early to tell how much snow will fall
with this system, but as of now most activity looks to be confined
to northern Kansas and into Nebraska. One main hazard with this
system will be the winds as strong northerly winds will be felt
Wednesday night through Thursday. This system then quickly moves
out of the area Thursday with decreasing cloudiness from west to
east. Upper level riding then builds across the western United
States over the remainder of the long term forecast. A shortwave
is expected to move down through this flow Friday night. A slight
chance has been added but I believe most places will remain dry
with only an increase in cloudiness. Models then suggest a
shortwave move down through the northwest flow early next week.
This may bring some precipitation with it and will need to be
watched over the next several model runs. As for temperatures,
highs Wednesday look to soar into the upper 60s with a few places
possibly reaching around 70 degrees. Highs then fall into the
upper 20s to upper 30s Thursday behind the cold front then range
from the mid 30s across central Kansas to around 50 degrees across
far southwestern Kansas Friday. Another surge of cold air moves
through the area Saturday leading to highs ranging from around 20
degrees across central Kansas to upper 30s across far southwestern
Kansas. Highs in the 30s will then be possible Sunday and Monday.
Lows look to fall into the 20s Wednesday night with teens
throughout the remainder of the long term forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CST Tue Jan 9 2018

South winds will persist (or redevelop in the case of KGCK)
through the period due to a surface trough in the lee of the
Rockies. Winds will increase from the southwest toward the end
of the period. VFR conditions will persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  66  39  72  23 /   0   0  10  50
GCK  66  36  71  22 /   0   0  10  70
EHA  70  42  70  24 /   0   0  10  70
LBL  68  40  72  24 /   0   0  10  50
HYS  62  34  67  21 /   0   0  20  80
P28  62  40  67  27 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Finch



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