Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261736
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

As an upper level trough crosses western Kansas early today the
early morning convection, located over mainly south central
Kansas, will shift east/northeast. As this first upper level
system crosses the Central Plains another, stronger upper level
trough will be exiting the Central Rockies and West Central High
Plains. The moist east/southeasterly up slope flow will continue
today across southwest Kansas and with improving moisture
convergence developing by late morning near a surface boundary in
far eastern Colorado ahead of this approaching upper wave there
will be a chance for scattered thunderstorms. Further east a
surface boundary will be lifting slowly north as a warm front and
based on moisture north of this boundary, the improving afternoon
instability, and 0-6km shear later this afternoon there will also
be a very slight chance for thunderstorms by mid afternoon near
and north of this surface boundary/warm front. At this time it
appears the better chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms
will be ahead of the upper level system and near and north of the
surface boundary that will be slowly moving across southwest
Kansas. Some of these storms late today and every this evening may
bee strong or even severe with the main hazard being strong winds
of around 60 mph. Hail up to the size of quarters will also be
possible early in the event.

Temperatures yesterday got warmer than what initially thought
last night so given this along with the model soundings late today
highs should climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s by late day.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Temperatures across western Kansas will continue to warm through
the weekend as a surface warm front lifts north into Nebraska and
850mb temperatures rebound into the 20C to 25C range. In addition
to the warmer temperatures this weekend there will also be a
chance for thunderstorms each day. Given the timing of another
upper level disturbance crossing the Central Plains it would
appear that the better opportunity for convection will be late
Sunday.

Also late this weekend the GFS and ECMWF both suggest an upper
low developing over the southwest United States where it will move
very little through at least Monday. Confidence on how models
handle these events are low and am currently uncertain on how this
will evolve through to mid week. It does appear that east of this
upper low some tropical moisture will to be drawn northward
towards southwest Kansas which should keep the chance for
precipitation going through at least mid week. Temperatures will
be near or slightly below the seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Aug 26 2016

IFR conditions will improve to VFR by early afternoon. Second concern
is overnight tsra with a complex moving out of Colorado. Activity will
exit the area by early morning. Winds be light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  80  62  88  65 /  60  60  20  30
GCK  79  58  89  63 /  60  70  30  30
EHA  82  61  89  61 /  60  60  30  30
LBL  84  62  91  63 /  50  50  30  30
HYS  76  61  85  64 /  50  50  20  30
P28  83  67  88  68 /  40  30  20  30

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Sugden


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