Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 131119
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
519 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 450 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Stratus clouds this morning, judging by the HRRR in the immediate
timeframe and the RAP/WRF by afternoon suggest a limit to the northward
expansion of low clouds to around the K96 corridor, or generally
south of the Scott City-Ness City-Rush Center line. Also there is
some reasonably good consensus for sub-freezing highs across the
entire forecast area today, outside of the outlier WRF-NMM which
develops warmer high well above freezing over southwestern
section. In additions to the temperatures and timing/northward
extend of stratus, the onset of precipitation, at least in light
brief periods appears from the 12km WRF and to develop as early as
00 UTC, and more favored in the east or south east, certainly
qualifying as freezing drizzle or freezing rain at that time. The
greatest threat areas for any light freezing rain will be
overnight mainly along the KS/OK line.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 450 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

A deeply entrenched cold surface airmass will be in place Saturday,
where the coldest axis will run from the Missouri valley into south
central Kansas and central Oklahoma. Highs out in our western
counties will may rise above freezing, maybe approaching 40 degrees
in the afternoon, however crashing quickly towards evening. Also the
WRF family of models ramp up overrunning precipitation late in the
day Saturday, still in the liquid phase as the models show very warm
temperatures aloft as warm as 5 to 7 degrees. This is already
showing it`s hand in the impressive 850 mb moisture transport field
over west Texas and the strong temperature gradient deep into se New
Mexico at this time. From that point forward it will be a matter of
periodic moderate to heavy rain bands lifting north across the
region with the warm intrusion aloft. Models continue to support a
cold surface despite shear volume of rain and potential for latent
heat release boundary layer warming. The GFS and ECMWF show
the potential for heavy freezing rain continuing into Sunday. In
fact although the GFS is on the fence for freezing temperatures
Sunday afternoon it climbs that hill from much colder morning
temperatures, while the ECMWF remains well in the freezing rain
accum zone of upper 20s. Finally, the upper low races from west
Texas toward central Kansas, eventually somewhat eroding the cold
layer across south central Kansas late Sunday, allowing a
changeover to rain. Still the upper low will continue northeast on
Sunday night, dragging the deformation axis and narrower axis of
cold air aloft farther east and likely accumulating snow across
the west.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 518 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

VFR ceilings will thicken and lower late today as moisture
improves and weak lift develops across southwest Kansas. MVFR
conditions will be possible in the DDC and the GCK areas between
00z and 03z Sunday and after 06z Sunday across northern Kansas
around Hays. Some scattered light freezing drizzle may also
develop in the GCK and DDC areas after 09z Sunday but the at this
time the probability appears low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  28  22  32  25 /  10  30  60  70
GCK  28  22  33  26 /  10  10  50  70
EHA  34  26  37  28 /  10  20  50  70
LBL  30  25  34  27 /  10  30  60  70
HYS  27  20  32  25 /   0  10  30  60
P28  31  25  33  28 /  20  50  80  80

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Ice Storm Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Monday for
KSZ030-031-043>046.

Ice Storm Warning from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ this evening to 6 AM
CST /5 AM MST/ Monday for KSZ061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert



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