Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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938
FXUS63 KDDC 082337
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
537 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Northwest flow will continue above western Kansas through tomorrow
with a strong jet in place over the same area. Mid to upper levels
look to saturate across central Kansas tonight into tomorrow
leading to increased cloudiness. Otherwise expect only a few high
clouds through tomorrow. Northwest winds continue through tomorrow
as a dome of high pressure continues to sit over the Southern
Plains. Gusty northwest are expected again tomorrow afternoon,
mainly across far western Kansas. A weak frontal boundary may
retrograde into portions of the area tomorrow afternoon but only
slightly decrease wind speeds and temperatures a few degrees. As
for temperatures, lows tonight look to dip into the mid 20s with
highs tomorrow ranging from the lower 40s across northern Kansas
to upper 50s across far southwestern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

An upper level ridge will be in place across the Western United
States through Saturday with an upper level long wave trough above
the Eastern United States. This will place western Kansas under a
northwest flow aloft. With the exception of Tuesday night, when
mid level clouds are possible, skies look to be mostly clear with
occasional high level cloudiness. Towards the surface, a westerly
component of the wind is expected across western Kansas Wednesday
into Wednesday night as high pressure slides eastward across the
Southern Plains. Wind then shift to more of a northerly direction
Thursday into Friday as a weak upper level shortwave moves down
through the northwest flow an help push a cold front through the
area at the surface. High pressure filters into the region
throughout the remainder of the forecast period with cooler
temperatures in place. As for temperatures, the warmest day looks
to be Wednesday with highs ranging from the upper 40s across north
central Kansas to around 70 degrees across far southwestern
Kansas. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday night look to dip into the mid
to upper 20s with lows 30s along the KS/OK border. Highs Thursday
and Friday are expected to range from the upper 40s across north
central Kansas to mid 60s across far southwestern Kansas. Lows
Thursday night are anticipated to fall to around 30 degrees.
Models suggest much cooler temperatures this weekend with the
possibility of high Saturday ranging from the upper 30s across
central Kansas to mid 50s across far southwestern Kansas. Highs
Sunday only to look to be a few degrees warmer.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Tuesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Gusty north winds will diminish into the 10-15 knot range shortly
after sunset this evening and continue that way overnight. Look for
the winds to become gusty to 25 knots again by 16z-18z Tuesday.
Some occasional VFR cigs could develop around Hays after 15z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  52  27  64 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  25  53  26  66 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  30  58  31  71 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  28  58  28  69 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  24  43  24  50 /   0   0   0   0
P28  27  51  26  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Gerard



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