Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 140500
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Main challenge in the short term forecast will be extent of dense
fog tonight. It seems like a fairly classic setup for widespread
dense fog, as axis of 45-47F dewpoints extended from Texas Panhandle
into far southwest and west central KS, with much of this moisture a
good ways west of the afternoon stratus line (which at 21z extended
from roughly along the U283 corridor). All mesoscale models show
large area of 1/4 mile or less visibility development in the 03-06z
time, especially east of U183. Coordinated with GLD on a Dense Fog
Advisory given the rather high degree of confidence in the event.
There is some degree of uncertainty on the west and east boundary of
the dense fog, and counties may need to be adjusted accordingly
through the night/early tomorrow morning. The abundant cloud cover
farther east along with 10 mph wind from the south should keep
temperatures from dropping much, with overnight lows expected to be
mid to upper 40s east of a Meade to Dodge City to Hays line.

On Tuesday, the main challenge will again be how far east and
quickly the morning low stratus will burn off. The latest Sky grids
will reflect a fairly slow erosion of the cloud, given how much low
level moisture is, and will continue to be, in place. This will, of
course, have an impact on temperatures again in the east with a fair
gradient in highs from west to east. We should see afternoon
temperatures reach mid 70s at Elkhart while Hays to Ness City to
LaCrosse will struggle to reach mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

A low amplitude, but fairly strong shortwave trough will be pushing
quickly east across the Northern Plains Tuesday Night. This will
usher in a cold front into Kansas, scouring out the low level
moisture and persistent stratus cloud cover. Trajectories behind
this system in the 800-600mb layer will be off the Wyoming high
terrain, thus any cold air will be largely masked by downslope
warming. Nevertheless, with the frontal passage itself, we should
have a 3-5 hour period of fairly strong north winds of 15-25 mph
mainly during the overnight hours into early morning Wednesday.
Winds will slacken off quite a bit Wednesday midday/afternoon,
resulting in quite a pleasant day with highs in the mid to upper
50s under quite a bit of sun.

Later in the week, the surface will start responding to an intense
Pacific jet streak moving into the Great Basin and eventually Central
Rockies. Winds on Thursday will increase out of the south to around
20-30 mph as an elongated low pressure develops within the lee
trough across the Northern/Central High Plains.

All three major global models (Canadian, ECMWF, GFS) show a 150+
knot 250mb jet nosing into the Central Plains by Thursday
Night/Friday morning. The jet core will be north of our southwest
Kansas region, thus is expected to result in yet another dry
scenario for our part of the world. Friday could prove to be quite
mild and windy...either out of the west-southwest or northwest
depending on where the intense front is located. The GFS model is
fastest, which is what the official forecast will reflect as far as
winds are concerned, although if the GFS trends slower with the
front, the wind forecast will need to be adjusted (winds more from
the southwest). This would also result in a much warmer forecast,
for if we remain in the dry/warm sector with west-southwest winds,
temperatures would top mid-upper 70s over much of southwest and west
central KS.

Much like the mid-week system, this early weekend storm system will
also be blowing through the Central Plains quite quickly with
trajectories coming out of Wyoming not long after frontal passage.
Any cold air we see from this front will likely be fairly short-
lived, modified by downslope warming.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Poor flying conditions will plague SW Kansas terminals tonight
into Tuesday morning. Once again, IFR/LIFR stratus is increasing
as of midnight. Expectation is for stratus to transition to areas
of dense fog overnight and toward sunrise, with consensus of short
term models bringing surface visibility down to as little as
1/8 mile by 12z Tue. Included a period of 1/4 sm (VLIFR) at all
terminals. Again on Tuesday, stratus and fog will gradually erode
from west to east, with VFR returning to GCK and LBL first, around
16z. Expect VFR at DDC near 18z, but stratus may hold most of the
daylight hours at HYS. Near the end of this TAF period, around
05z Wed, a dry cold front will arrive with strong N/NW winds
gusting to near 30 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  45  56  40  59 /  10  10   0   0
GCK  37  63  37  57 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  41  73  40  58 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  42  65  41  59 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  44  53  39  57 /  10  10   0   0
P28  49  61  46  62 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Tuesday for KSZ030-031-
043>046-062>065-075>080-085>089.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner



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