Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 102304
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
604 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Early afternoon water vapor loop and RAP analysis showed center of
compact upper low over far northeastern KS, which continued to pull
away from the Central Plains. Weak shortwave ridging was moving
across Colorado in its wake. The surface high behind the departing
system was quite weak, with only a 1026mb ridge, more or less,
extending from southeastern SD into southwestern KS. Winds will drop
off quite a bit at sundown, and we expect a prolonged period of wind
speeds of 6 knots or less. Clear sky, light winds, and dewpoints
around 30F will allow temperatures to fall through the 30s after
midnight. There is still a little bit of uncertainty regarding how
large of an area will see 32 degrees or colder temperature for a
low, but there is a typical diurnal fall of 25 degrees from today`s
highs in this good radiational cooling environment would certainly
support a number of counties in west central Kansas reaching 32F for
a low. As a result of this thinking, will be hoisting a Freeze
Warning for areas generally north of the Arkansas River, and a Frost
Advisory south of this (excluding far south central KS). Thanks to
WFO GLD, GID, AMA, PUB, ICT for coordinating the frost/freeze
hazard.

This will be the last cold morning for awhile, as we will be
entering a warmer pattern with the upper level flow pattern becoming
southwesterly Wednesday. This will foster development of the leeside
trough and south-southwest winds will be on the increase as a
result, particularly far southwest and west central KS in the
afternoon where MSLP gradient will be stronger. This area will also
be the first to see downslope momentum, leading to afternoon
temperatures topping out in the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

Not much change in the overall thinking from previous forecast, as
we continue to anticipate a nice warming trend back into the 80s
Thursday and Friday. The next front Friday, though, looks a touch
faster than what it looked like yesterday, so the 80s will likely
only be realized closer to the Oklahoma border. Areas of far west
central KS may struggle to escape the 60s. This will likely be a dry
front Friday/Friday Night, with much of the initial thunderstorm
activity found farther northeast across far northeast KS/northwest
MO. That said, the GFS is definitely a more vigorous solution with
the QPF field, and as a result, SuperBlend POPs are higher (30-40
percent 06-12z Saturday). The front will likely stall out across
southern/central KS with increasing low level moisture pulling
northward toward it. The ECMWF, GFS, Canadian models all show a
similar signal of slightly positively tilted upper trough from the
western Dakotas into Colorado, which is generally not very favorable
for precipitation in western Kansas in mid-Fall.

Very strong cold frontogenesis usually results, and all three models
show this happening late in the day Saturday. Saturday looks like a
much better chance for more organized strong/severe thunderstorms,
potentially affecting our southeastern counties (south central
Kansas). SuperBlend POPs of 40-50 percent are in the grids for areas
east of Larned to Greensburg to Coldwater, although my gut tells me
the best activity will probably be east into WFO ICT forecast area
deeper into south central and eastern KS. Temperatures Sunday look
quite cool as intense low level cold advection will drive south
lower single digit Celsius temperatures at 850mb, supporting Sunday
highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s most locations. Look for the
Sunday highs to be a bit lower in future updates if these latest
global model trends continue regarding magnitude of cold air behind
this trough.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2017

A trough of low pressure at the surface will begin to develop
across eastern Colorado overnight as a surface high moves across
eastern Kansas. The light north/northeasterly winds will shift to
the south by early Wednesday morning. These southerly winds will
increase through the day and are expected to be in the 15 to 20
knot range by 18z Wednesday. Model soundings indicating VFR
conditions over the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  33  70  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  32  71  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  35  74  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  35  73  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  33  67  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
P28  36  69  49  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM
MDT/ Wednesday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>064.

Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ065-066-
074>080-084>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert



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