Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 081424
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
924 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2014
...Update to synopsis...
ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
A fairly stagnant synoptic pattern was in place, as one would expect
during the middle of Summer across the CONUS. A northwesterly 90-100
kt jet was moving across the Northern Plains. At 500-hPa, a western
ridge prevailed from Oregon to Texas. Monsoonal moisture was noted in
the easterly flow across the Desert SW on the south side of the high.
At the lower levels, "cold" air advection was noted per the KDDC raob
with 700-hPa temp down 5C from yesterdays 12Z raob, and 850-hPa temp
down 10C as well. At the sfc, an associated cold front had translated
well south of the region into Oklahoma.
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
The thunderstorm activity really waned as it moved south earlier
tonight. The northern half of our CWA received from less than a
tenth of an inch in Garden City and Jetmore, to nearly an inch in
the Scott City and LaCrosse areas. A cold front was moving down from
northern Kansas, and will travel south through most of our CWA.
There will be 20 percent chances of non-severe thunderstorms in a
30-40 mile wide band move from the north to the south through
western Kansas this morning. The cold front was moving southward
through Western Kansas as I write, and should be down in Oklahoma by
15z this morning. Therefore, it looks as if today will be
considerably cooler than yesterday, with maximum temperatures only
reaching the mid 80s in the soaked areas near Wakeeney, Hays and
Scott City. Further south, down along the Oklahoma border,
temperatures should rise into the upper 80s. Winds will be
northeast early and plenty of mid level clouds will constitute a
ceiling. After the front sinks farther south, winds should become
north at 10 mph or less by noon.
Tonight, that front will not be too far south in Oklahoma, when a
low level jet forms and brings some moisture north and over the
front. There will not be too much upper troughing in our area
tonight, so I lowered Pops a bit due to not much destabilization
going on. Minimum temperatures were not changed, and should range
from the lower 60s in our north to the mid 60s in our south.
Wednesday should start out Partly Cloudy with a warm front moving in
from the south. A lee side trough will likely form in Colorado in
the afternoon, and move into western Kansas late. There may be a
few late afternoon storms in our western counties near the Colorado
border. The is not much instability at that time, so severe storms
are not anticipated.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
Medium range models indicate a northwesterly flow aloft prevailing
across the Western High Plains early in the period Wednesday as an
upper level ridge axis slowly shifts eastward across the
Intermountain West. A series of H5 vort maxima are projected to
cycle off the ridge axis and drop southeastward across the high
plains of eastern Colorado and western Kansas. Meanwhile, a
prevailing southeasterly flow near the surface will continue to
draw ample moisture up into central and western Kansas while a
lee side trough of low pressure develops across eastern Colorado.
As a result, thunderstorms are likely across eastern Colorado
Wednesday afternoon as lower/mid level lapse rates steepen across
the high plains. These storms will drift eastward, potentially
moving into west central and southwest Kansas overnight.
Additional thunderstorm development will be possible across
central Kansas toward early Thursday morning as the surface
trough axis pushes eastward across western Kansas overnight.
This and surface high pressure parked across the Great Lakes
Region will enhance an area of convergence across central and
eastern Kansas, not to mention an axis of higher surface
dewpoints being drawn northwest into central Kansas within the
upslope flow. Although the flow aloft is expected to be less than
favorable, enough forcing/lift near the surface will exist to
support thunderstorm development across central Kansas early
Thursday with any storms moving off to the east by the afternoon
time frame. Drier conditions are expected Friday as the upper
level ridge moves further east out of the Rockies into the
Western High Plains.
Near normal temperatures are likely Wednesday as a lee side trough
of low pressure develops across eastern Colorado while surface high
pressure drops southeast out of the Northern Plains into the
southern Great Lakes Region. This will set up a south to
southeasterly flow into western Kansas drawing slightly warmer
air north into western Kansas. The GFS/ECMWF show H85 temperatures
warming slightly from the day previous with values in the lower
20s(C) across central Kansas to near 30C in extreme southwest
Kansas. With GFS/ECMWF model soundings showing steep low level
lapse rates developing by Wednesday afternoon, look for highs well
up into the mid to upper 80s(F) across central Kansas with lower
to mid 90s(F) across much of southwest Kansas. Widespread 90s(F)
are expected Thursday and Friday as the warming trend continues
through the end of the week.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014
Isolated thunderstorms will linger across central and southwest
Kansas early this morning before dissipating by mid day. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through late this
evening. Northeasterly winds of around 10 to 20kt will persist
through early this afternoon as surface high pressure moves out of
the Rockies into the high plains of eastern Colorado. Winds will
then turn more east to southeasterly this evening as the surface
high shifts further eastward.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 86 64 89 68 / 30 20 20 30
GCK 85 63 90 67 / 30 20 20 20
EHA 85 64 93 70 / 20 30 20 30
LBL 87 65 94 69 / 20 30 20 20
HYS 85 61 89 67 / 40 10 20 30
P28 89 67 90 69 / 20 20 20 30