Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 300017
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
617 PM CST Fri Nov 29 2013
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday) ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST
FRI NOV 29 2013
A dry and progressive northern branch shortwave trough in northwest
flow aloft will move across the Upper Midwest tonight and Saturday.
This feature will help push a weak cold front across western Kansas
tonight with light south winds shifting to the northwest at 8 to 12
mph after midnight. Only a few cirrus clouds will move across the
area tonight with mostly clear skies. Overnight lows will be in the
mid to upper 20s.
For Saturday, a pleasant day is in store, with skies becoming clear
and light north to northwest winds becoming light and variable
towards evening. A strong upper level jet will be moving just south
of Kansas across Oklahoma and western Texas with some cirrus
cloudiness. The weak cold front will be pushing into northern
Oklahoma and into the Texas Panhandle by late afternoon. Highs on
Saturday will still be fairly mild and in the upper 50s to near 60.
These temperatures look good from previous forecast and current
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013
Tranquil conditions are expected this weekend into the first part of
next week with westerly flow aloft and dry conditions in the lower
and mid levels of the atmosphere. A weak upper level shortwave is
progged to move across the Central Plains Sunday, but with the
atmospheric column being so dry only a few mid level clouds are
anticipated to form. Lee troughing develops Monday night into
Tuesday as a stronger upper level trough moves into the Pacific
Northwest. This will shift winds to more of a southerly direction at
the surface. Above normal temperatures are expected Sunday through
Tuesday with upper 50s Sunday, around 60 degrees Monday, and mid to
upper 50s on Tuesday. Lows will be in the upper 20s Monday morning
with lows in the lower to mid 30s Monday into Tuesday.
A lot of uncertainty continues regarding the evolution of the
aforementioned upper level trough through the rest of next week.
However, models do suggest this trough to shift eastward and become
an upper level low across the Northern Plains Wednesday with a
second piece of energy diving southwestward into the Rockies. This
will help push a surface cold front into the central High Plains
sometime around Tuesday night or Wednesday. Low to mid level
moisture will be moving northward into the central Plains ahead of
the front increasing cloud cover. A chances for light snow or light
rain changing to light snow will develop by Thursday into Friday as
much colder air moves south into the central Plains.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST FRI NOV 29 2013
VFR flight category is expected through the entire TAF period for
HYS, DDC AND GCK. The 00 UTC KDDC sounding exhibited very dry air.
Pressure falls across the Northern and Central Plains will allow a
weak cold front to move into western Kansas overnight, shifting
light winds northwest.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 29 58 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 25 58 27 56 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 28 58 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 30 59 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 24 54 26 54 / 0 0 0 0
P28 30 58 30 56 / 0 0 0 0