Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 230917
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
317 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD, AWAY FROM KANSAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE WEST
COAST, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TODAY, WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW LEADING TO WARMER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT IN THE
ABSENCE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 20S OR PERHAPS LOWER 30S DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG
THE WINDS ARE. ON THE HIGH PLAINS, IT ONLY TAKES A BRIEF DROP OFF
IN WINDS AT NIGHT FROM 10 TO 5 KTS TO RESULT IN A SHORT-LIVED,
DOWNWARD SPIKE IN TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EJECTS EASTWARD
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME, SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPPING THE WEST COAST
RIDGE DIVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND CLOSES OFF INTO AN UPPER
LOW IN THE VICINITY OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE FEATURES EVOLVE INTO A
SHORT LIVED REX BLOCK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVES OUT OF CANADA INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
WAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE COLD AIR IMPACTS FROM THIS FRONT WILL BE SHORT LIVED
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS DOWNSLOPE WARMING WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY
QUICK RECOVERY TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.

THE WEST COAST UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH MIDWEEK. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
60S AND POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED AS DOWNSLOPE WARMING
CONTINUES. BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REX BLOCK
GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO WESTERN KANSAS LATER IN THE WEEK. THERE COULD BE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR SNOW BY LATE WEEK
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES,
RESULTING IN GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  51  28  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  50  27  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  46  27  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  48  27  54  30 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  52  27  61  37 /   0   0   0   0
P28  51  28  61  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FINCH
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...FINCH


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