Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 182325
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
525 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
TONIGHT AND KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
PANHANDLES OF TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, WITH A WEAKENING FLOW
ALOFT AND THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH, LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH, DECREASING
CLOUDS, HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM
SNOWPACK MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S(F) ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
OVERALL AIRMASS EXPECTED. A VERY BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY
TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS MORE SOUTHERLY.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH
H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A LITTLE ABOVE 0C FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER EXPECTED EARLY IN THE DAY,
LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE 40S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS WELL AGREED UPON BY THE GFS/ECMWF AND SOME
DEGREE THE NAM FAMILY AS WELL INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
MAIN DIFFERENCES WILL BE MESOSCALE AND SMALLER SCALE. HOWEVER THE
MODELS TEND TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ON
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WESTERLY WAVE
INTO THE SOUTHERLY PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THIS CERTAINLY SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES AND PERHAPS
ADVECTION FOG ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA BUT IS NOT A
CERTAINTY.

THE NEXT FEATURE WILL BE MOISTURE SCOURING COLD FRONT DRIVEN THROUGH
THE AREA BY THE DEEP SUBSIDENT NW FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH
AROUND MONDAY. THE INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF
THIS SUGGESTS STRATUS AND PERHAPS EVEN DRIZZLE OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT BASED ON PATTERN RECOGNITION. CURRENT SUPER BLEND KEEPS
ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES RELEGATED TO THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, DRIER SURFACE AIR SHOULD
BE WORKING INTO THE REGION REDUCING THE PROBABILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

THINGS WILL START OUT IN THE IFR CATEGORY, AND GET WORSE. PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST TONIGHT, ALONG WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. THE CIG AND VSBY WILL BOTH LOWER AROUND 06Z TO
OVC007 AND 3SM BR. BY MORNING OR AROUND 10Z, EXPECT OVC003 AND 2SM
BR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AROUND 17Z FRIDAY, WITH
VFR EXPECTED THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  25  45  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  23  47  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  23  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  25  48  25  51 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  23  42  23  47 /   0   0   0   0
P28  28  42  29  49 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...BURKE



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