Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 230830

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
330 AM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

...Updated short and long term discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2016

Water vapor imagery shows a mid level closed low over Nevada early
this morning with a 100 knot jet extending from the southwest into
the southern quadrant of the low. The models show this system
moving into Wyoming this evening and into South Dakota by Sunday
morning. A low level jet had developed over western and central
Kansas overnight. Some of the mesoscale and convection allowing
models show a few elevated showers and thunderstorms developing
along the Highway 183 corridor early this morning. Don`t see any
evidence of this in the satellite imagery at this time but may
have to add small pops to the eastern counties for a few hours
this morning.

At the surface, low pressure was deepening over eastern Montana
with a trough developing farther south adjacent to the eastern
slopes of the Rockies. The resulting strong pressure gradient
across western Kansas will bring windy conditions to much of the
area today. 850 millibar temperatures are progged to range from
the upper teens over south central Kansas to the mid 20s along the
Colorado border. This should result in afternoon high temperatures
in the low to mid 80s from east to west. The surface trough should
slowly move east this afternoon and evening. Moisture return is
fairly meager ahead of this trough but convection allowing models
show showers and thunderstorms breaking out after 4 pm along the
Colorado border and moving east this evening. Bulk shear and
instability are fairly weak so am not expecting much more than
quarter size hail and some gusty winds at best. The going
forecast has a decent handle on this and only made some minor
adjustments. Given continued south to southwest flow overnight,
lows should be fairly mild, ranging from the mid 50s in central
Kansas to the upper 40s/low 50s along the Colorado border.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 329 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2016

On Sunday the upper low continues eastward which will push the
surface trough into central Kansas. With a drier airmass spreading
across southwest Kansas, the best chance for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms on Sunday will be along the Highway 281 corridor
around Pratt and Medicine Lodge. Scattered thunderstorms will be
possible by late afternoon. Shear and instability parameters look
more favorable for large hail, perhaps up to golfball size and
damaging winds.

Tuesday continues to be the next favorable day for severe weather
as another strong upper level system rolls out of the western
states across the northern and central Plains. The models suggest
that a surface low will be deepening over eastern Colorado with a
warm front extending east into central Kansas, while a dryline
moves east across southwest Kansas. There will be betterpotential
for severe weather along the warm front and dryline, including
large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. There is still
some uncertainty as to where the exact placement of these features
will be as run to run model variations continue for the next day
or two.

Thursday should be fairly quiet as the midweek system moves east of
the region and another strong upper trough digs into the southwest.
This next system is expected to bring showers and thunderstorms to
western Kansas by Friday and Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2016

VFR conditions are expected through this period at the TAF sites. A
low level jet developing around 1-2kft off the surface tonight will
persist through sunrise before dissipating. Southerly winds will
become gusty to around 35 knots at times especially from late morning
through sunset. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms could be
in the vicinity of GCK and HYS through the last part of the period.


DDC  84  56  81  49 /   0  10  10   0
GCK  86  53  80  46 /  20  20   0   0
EHA  85  51  80  45 /  10  10   0   0
LBL  85  55  83  48 /   0  10   0   0
HYS  83  57  80  48 /  10  30  10   0
P28  82  58  82  55 /  10  10  20  20


.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.