Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 191723
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1223 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

There isn`t much to say, once the upper high takes over. Upper
high centered near the Ozarks into Oklahoma this afternoon, with
anvil debris from last night`s MCS in Nebraska trapped in the
anticyclonic circulation aloft. Between the dissipating cirrus,
a lack of a good downslope component, and continued green
vegetation/transpiration and high dewpoints, most locales will
fall short of 100 again this afternoon.

Wednesday...No change in the pattern means no change in the
weather. Hot and dry. Models warm 850 mb temps on average another
2 degrees on Wednesday, and with a decent SWly surface wind
component gusting near 30 mph, more locations will crack the 100
degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

For Wednesday into Friday, the heat wave continues with upper level
warm ridging and little to no chances for any rainfall. Highs will
be near 100 on Wednesday, then could be the warmest on Thursday and
Friday near 102. Lower dewpoints less than 70 should keep most of
the area just below heat advisory criteria. Lows will be warm and
in the low to mid 70s.

For the weekend, the upper warm ridge begins to breakdown with a
more active northern upper jet and waves moving across the Rockies
into the Central Plains. These upper level waves will give some
increasing chances for rainfall into Monday. Highs will be slightly
cooler and in the lower to mid 90s for Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Jul 19 2016

VFR/SKC through Wednesday. South winds at 15-25 kts this
afternoon, diminishing some at sunset. Another SWly low level jet
develops overnight with 850 mb winds increasing to near 40 kts.
Another round of LLWS mentioned in the TAFs for beginning in the
06-08z time frame. After 15z Wed, SW winds increase sharply, with
gusts near 30 kts at all airports. No chance of thunderstorms with
strong high pressure aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  73  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  96  71 100  72 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  97  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  98  73 101  72 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  96  75 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
P28  97  74 100  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Kruse
AVIATION...Turner


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