Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 281025
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
425 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

...UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM ROCKIES AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST, THEN RAPIDLY
SPREADING EASTWARD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY
FOR ALL OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EXCEPT FOR SCOTT AND
TREGO COUNTIES FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH SNOW BEGINNING
IN THE ELKHART TO SYRACUSE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN RAPIDLY
SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE REST OF WESTERN KANSAS BY DAWN. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
AROUND 10 TO 14 DEGREES. AN INCH OR 2 IS POSSIBLE BY MORNING
ESPECIALLY FAR WEST.

FOR SATURDAY, SNOW WILL BE CONTINUING WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WITH MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON, AS THE UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH
MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY, A GENERAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SUNDAY NIGHT, A WEAK
FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE SAME TIME, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS
OCCURS, LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH WESTERN
KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
GIVEN THAT THE MID LEVELS DRY OUT DURING THE DAY AND A CONTINUATION
OF MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF DRIZZLE WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

BY TUESDAY, THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH DIGGING OUT OF
WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING WITH WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
40S AND 50S ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES COULD BE FALLING BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SNOW AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
MOVES OVER THE AREA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL SEE DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE ONSET OF A SNOW EPISODE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WILL
RESULT IFR AND POSSIBLE PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS AS WELL AS LOWERED
VISIBILITY TO AROUND 3/4 SM AT TIMES IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY AFTER LATE MORNING,
HOWEVER CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE IFR RANGE INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  23  31  21 /  90  60  30  20
GCK  27  23  30  20 /  70  60  20  20
EHA  30  25  31  22 /  50  40  20  30
LBL  29  26  33  23 /  90  50  20  20
HYS  27  21  33  20 /  70  60  40  20
P28  28  24  35  23 /  90  50  40  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ031-044>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...GERARD
AVIATION...RUSSELL


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