Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 100723
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
223 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
...Updated for Short Term...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2015
For today, a surface trough of low pressure in the lee of the
Rockies will provide light south winds early this morning. Winds
increase to 15 to 24 mph by mid morning mixing. Lots of sunshine is
expected today with a warm front moving across western Kansas. 850
mb temps rise from around 13 degrees celsius yesterday to around 23C
today. This will give highs into the low to mid 80s with the warmest
toward the Colorado Border.
For tonight, weak upper level ridging across the Central Plains will
breakdown ahead of the next shortwave trough moving into the
Intermountain West. At the surface, a lee trough will move slowly
into far western Kansas with light south winds around 8 to 12 mph
and lots of clear skies.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 117 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
Dry conditions will persist across western Kansas through early
next week as the upper level ridging out west moves slowly
eastward across the Central and Southern Rockies Saturday, and
into the Central Plains Sunday. An extremely weak flow aloft
associated with the upper level ridge axis and limited
moisture/instability will keep precip chances at bay through
Sunday night. An upper level trough of low pressure is projected
to push east across the Northern Rockies Sunday and into the
Northern Plains Monday sending an attendant cold front southward
into western Kansas to begin the week. However, a lack of low/mid
level moisture will hinder significant precip chances. Above
normal temperatures are expected Saturday as the aforementioned
upper level ridge approaches from the west. A prevailing
southerly flow will draw warmer air northward into western Kansas
pushing H85 temperatures up into the upper teens(C) across
central Kansas to the mid 20s(C) in extreme southwest Kansas. Under
plenty of sunshine, look for highs well up into the 80s(F)Saturday
afternoon. The warming trend will continue into Sunday with highs
pushing the lower 90s(F) in some places. Another frontal passage
late Sunday/early Monday will once again drop high temperatures
down near seasonal levels.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Saturday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015
VFR conditions will continue. A surface lee trough of low pressure
will provide southerly winds increasing to 12-22kt by mid morning.
Tonight, light south to southeast winds will prevail.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 83 57 92 55 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 84 53 92 53 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 85 55 92 54 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 84 56 92 56 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 83 58 94 54 / 0 0 0 0
P28 81 59 92 55 / 0 0 0 0