Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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000
FXUS63 KDDC 050415
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1015 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

WV imagery indicates an upper level shortwave trough digging
southeast across the Central and Southern Rockies. Meanwhile,
upper level ridging is moving ashore off the Pacific into the
Intermountain West. Near the surface, a large area of high
pressure continues to dominate across the Western High Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Increasing clouds expected this afternoon through tonight, as
strong shortwave approaches SW KS. With the added cloud cover, low
temperatures Friday morning will be several degrees milder than
those observed this morning. Lift ahead of this feature is quite
strong by sunrise Friday, with overcast mid layer clouds expected.
Moisture supply is very limited, however, so only expecting virga
or flurries as this system passes. The best opportunity for light
accumulations of snow will be confined to WFO Goodland`s CWA.
A mostly cloudy sky will persist much of Friday as the shortwave
passes SW KS, with surface winds backing to N/NW at 10-20 mph
through the afternoon. Associated weak cold advection will hold
high temperatures Friday afternoon near Thursday`s readings, with
again northern zones with the deepest snowpack struggling to get
to freezing.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Entire long term forecast is dry for SW KS. In fact, models are
forecasting an extended period of very quiet weather that will
continue through at least Saturday February 13th.

Saturday...The pick day of the weekend. High pressure quickly
rebounds, allowing for moderating afternoon temperatures. Weak
lee troughing will promote gentle SW downslope, sending the
southern 1/2 of the CWA into the mid to upper 50s. Meanwhile,
melting snow will hold the northern zones to near 40.

Sunday...Temperature forecast becomes a little trickier, as a cold
arctic airmass sweeps into the northern plains. Clearly, the brunt
of this arctic air will bypass SW KS, missing us to the NE. Still,
models are in disagreement on how much cold air sloshes into SW KS
on Sunday. 12z GFS drops 850 mb temps from near 6C Saturday, to
near -3C on Sunday. 12z NAM a bit colder, with an 850 temp of -4C
on Sunday. 12z ECMWF is now notably colder than its runs
yesterday. Gusty NW winds of 20-30 mph will have a downslope
component helping to offset some cold air advection, but the wind
will also be coming off the refrigerated snowpack of NW KS. Wanted
to go colder in the max temps grids Sunday, but neither MOS
guidance or the neighbor`s grids supported doing so. Forecasted
40s for now, but there is some potential for a busted temperature
forecast on Sunday.

Monday...Flow becomes highly amplified across North America, with
a 585 dm upper ridge over Nevada, and a 521 upper low over
Michigan. Very strong but dry NW flow will persist over SW KS,
with afternoon NW winds of 20-30 mph with higher gusts.
Temperatures will remain near normal.

Tuesday through Thursday...Heights gradually rise over SW KS, as
flow deamplifies, SW US ridge expands onto the plains, and
downslope develops. Gorgeous weather will result. Most of the snow
will have been melted, allowing 50s to return. with 60s across the
SW zones.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

An upper level disturbance approaching the central Plains will
bring increasing clouds to western and central Kansas. VFR cigs
will develop this evening and continue through the remainder of
the period. There is some small potential for light rainshowers
to move across the area late in the period but confidence in this
is low enough to preclude mentioning in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  20  42  20  53 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  17  38  15  46 /   0  10   0   0
EHA  22  43  20  57 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  20  45  17  57 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  16  35  17  39 /   0   0   0   0
P28  23  48  24  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Gerard


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