Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 260819
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
319 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

...Updated short and long term discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

This evenings analysis as well as water vapor loops show an upper
level ridge centered over the eastern slopes of the Rockies. An
upper disturbance evident in the water vapor imagery was lifting
northward into western colorado and utah. This disturbance will
top the upper ridge and drop southeast through the central plains
on thursday.

Subsidence associated with the upper ridge will keep the weather
pattern dry across southwest and central kansas through tonight.
Increasing thickness values will result in temperatures warming up
even more over Tuesday`s highs...generally in the mid and upper
90s. Southerly winds will also be increasing across western
Kansas today as the lee side trough along the kansas/colorado
border strengthens through the day.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

As the western CONUS disturbance approaches the central Plains
tonight, we will see increasing high level cloudiness and slightly
warmer overnight lows compared to the past few nights. On
Thursday, the upper wave moves out over western Kansas, chances
for showers and thunderstorms will be increasing by Thursday
afternoon and then spreading southeast by Thursday evening.

There is some disagreement between the NAM and GFS as to how much
low level moisture return will occur ahead of this system. The NAM
is moister than the GFS and looks more reasonable given the amount
of moisture return that is ongoing across the southern and central
Plains. Given the NAM values for buoyancy and shear, there is
some potential for a few storms over central Kansas during the
afternoon and early evening hours to produce large hail and strong
to damaging winds. Temperatures will be somewhat cooler over
western sections of southwest Kansas on Thursday as cloudiness
increases and somewhat cooler air starts to move in. On Thursday
night, the main area of showers and thunderstorms starts to move
southeast out of the region as the upper wave moves through.
Precipitation should be coming to an end over south central
Kansas before sunrise on Friday.

The weather pattern will return to mainly dry conditions on Friday
and through the weekend as upper level ridging dominates the
central High Plains again. By early next week, the upper flow
begins to increase from the southwest as the upper ridge axis
slides to the east. This will bring a return to at least slight
chances for thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Wednesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

Look for VFR conditions to persist through this period as upper level
high pressure continues to build east into the central Plains. A
surface low pressure trough will deepen along the kansas/colorado
border which will bring increasing southerly winds to the terminals
during the day Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  70  94  65 /  10  10  40  50
GCK  96  70  91  64 /   0  10  30  40
EHA  96  69  92  64 /   0  10  30  40
LBL  97  70  94  65 /  10  10  40  50
HYS  97  70  92  65 /  10  10  40  50
P28  94  70  95  69 /  10  10  40  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Gerard


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