Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 300607
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
107 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017
Any lingering light rain across central Kansas early this morning
will quickly dissipate as short range models show a closed off
low across far eastern Kansas shifting eastward into Missouri
while upper level ridging moves out of the Colorado Rockies into
the Western High Plains today. This will give the high plains a
break from precip chances through Thursday night. Although winds
will remain northerly through much of the day, warmer temperatures
are likely as cloud cover slowly scatters west to east through
this afternoon giving way to sunshine across extreme west Kansas.
Warmer air will begin to move into the far western reaches of the
state as a quickly developing lee side trough sets up a southerly
flow there by mid afternoon, pushing H85 temperatures well above
10C. Expect highs only up into the 50s(F) across central Kansas
where cloud cover will prevail longer to the 60s(F) in extreme
southwest Kansas where sunshine will break out earlier in the day.
Look for lows down into the 30s(F) tonight as clearing skies and
lighter winds allow for cooler temperatures.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017
There will be a brief break in between systems Thursday night into
Friday morning, with increased cloudiness Friday afternoon. Mostly
cloudy skies are expected by Friday night with rain chances
increasing from west to east. This system initially has the same
kind of track the first one did, but then splits as it starts to
exit the Rockies. One upper level low will move over Kansas with
the other sliding well south into the Southern Plains.
Nevertheless, precipitation is expected to be possible this
weekend. This system then moves out the area Sunday with
decreasing cloudiness. Models then suggest another system moving
into the area by the mid part of next week. However, confidence in
timing and track is low. Temperatures throughout the long term
forecast look to fluctuate from the 50s Friday, mid 40s northwest
to upper 50s southeast Saturday, around 60 degrees Sunday, then in
the 60s for the first part of next week. Lows will generally be in
the 30s with the exception of central and south central Kansas
where low 40s will be possible.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017
Low level stratus will persist across central and portions of
southwest Kansas through mid to late Thursday morning resulting in
MVFR cigs in the vicinity of all TAF sites overnight. Periods of
IFR cigs will be possible toward daybreak. The stratus deck will
begin to lift Thursday afternoon while scatterering our west to
east late in the period. Northerly winds 15 to 30kt will persist
overnight as a strong surface low shifts slowly eastward across
eastern Kansas. Northerly winds will then begin to gradually
subside throughout the day Thursday as the surface low moves
further east into Missouri.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 37 58 35 58 / 50 0 0 0
GCK 36 62 37 55 / 30 0 0 10
EHA 35 65 38 59 / 10 0 0 20
LBL 38 63 37 60 / 20 0 0 10
HYS 38 55 36 53 / 70 10 0 0
P28 41 55 36 61 / 20 10 0 0