Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 210257

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
957 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017


Issued at 955 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

WV imagery indicates an upper level trough of low pressure
transitioning eastward across the Great Basin and the Four Corners
Region. Meanwhile, a southwest flow aloft is prevailing across the
Western High Plains. Near the surface, a strong lee side trough of
low pressure is anchored near and along the Colorado border.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Water vapor imagery is showing a broad shortwave trough lifting
out of the southern High Plains this afternoon with two distinct
vort centers over far southwest Kansas in southwest Oklahoma. These
will move northeast across western and central Kansas through the
late afternoon and evening hours. A few of the CAMs continue to
show a few showers developing mainly over south central Kansas.
Visible sat imagery shows that a cumulus field has developed in
that area. Will maintain some very slight chance pops over south
central Kansas for a few hours late this afternoon and early evening
but not real confident that we will see much of anything develop.

Short term models all show a fairly significant low level jet developing
this evening with the strongest winds (70 knots at 850mb) centered
more toward central Kansas. We should see a diurnal lull in winds
around sunset with winds increasing again this evening into tonight.
The strong southerly low level flow will continue to pull increasingly
more moist air into central and south central Kansas which could
result in areas of lower stratus developing later tonight into
Saturday morning east of Highway 283.

On Saturday, a stronger upper level trough currently located over
the Great Basin will move out over the central CONUS. As the upper
wave moves out, a dryline moves eastward through southwest Kansas
ahead of a southward surging cold front. The best chance for any
showers and thunderstorms still appears to be confined to eastern
portions of southwest Kansas into central Kansas by Saturday
afternoon. Model soundings indicate a warm layer in the lower
levels that could keep any convection from developing over much of
the area. The greatest chances should be over south central Kansas
in the afternoon where the front will encounter the most unstable
airmass. There will be sufficient shear and instability for severe
storms. Timing of the front will be critical as an earlier passage
will result in thunderstorms and severe potential east of the
forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

The remainder of the weekend should be fairly quiet as an upper
level shortwave ridge moves southeast over the central High Plains.
Early next week, a strong upper level ridge builds over the western
CONUS while a large upper trough develops over the east. Another
fast moving shortwave trough will brush southeast over the central
High Plains by Monday afternoon and evening. No precipitation is
expected with this system given the dry airmass in place. The
middle part of next week should be mild and dry as weak upper
ridging and low level downslope set up again on Wednesday.

Late in the week, the medium range models show a fairly deep upper
trough digging into the central CONUS. The GFS has come around to
a more similar solution to the ECMWF and GEM models today. Todays
models bring a cold front through western Kansas on Thursday with
cold air settling into the area Thursday night. If this pans out,
there is better potential for hard freeze conditions along with
the potential for some light snow Thursday night into Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

The main impact to aviation will be strong winds continuing
through the forecast period with winds gradually veering to the
southwest through west...and eventually northwest early Saturday.
The timing of winds becoming north-northwest will be 15-18z
Saturday. IFR/MVFR ceiling from stratus clouds is expected to
remain east of HYS and DDC terminals, so will be keeping VFR
through the forecast period. Thunderstorm chances will also be
east of DDC and HYS terminals tomorrow afternoon/evening.


Issued at 314 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Drier air will be spreading into far southwest Kansas behind a
cold front on Saturday. Lowest relative humidity values are
expected in the 20-25 percent range. While this is not low enough
for Red Flag conditions, there will be a heightened threat for
wildfires due to the lowered rh levels and gusty north winds
behind the front. These heightened wildfire conditions could
extend into next week as a relatively dry airmass remains in place
over the region.


DDC  61  68  39  71 /  10  10   0   0
GCK  55  64  35  71 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  53  64  36  70 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  58  67  36  71 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  61  67  38  71 /  10  20   0   0
P28  66  74  43  72 /  20  40  20   0




LONG TERM...Gerard
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