Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 200846
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
346 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2014

...LONG TERM AND FIRE SECTION UPDATES...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

As the mean 500-700mb low approaches southwestern Kansas late
tonight into Sunday, precipitation will markedly increase. For this
evening, shower and thunderstorm activity will develop after 22Z
along the quasi-stationary from across far west-central Kansas into
southeastern Colorado. This is where the highest POPs will be 30-40
percent from Wakeeney southwest to Syracuse. Given the paltry
surface-based instability (only a few hundred J/kg CAPE), only
sub-severe convection is expected.  It will be a mild overnight with
mostly cloud skies continuing and south winds staying up in the 12
to 16 knot range. This will result in overnight lows only down to
the mid to upper 50s for most locations, especially along and east
of Highway 283 where winds will be a bit stronger through the night.

Much more numerous and organized shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected on Sunday. Using a blend of the GFS and the ECMWF, the best
area for the most organized precipitation will likely be along a
corridor from Rolla to Meade northward to Lakin to Kalvesta and
northeast later on in the afternoon Jetmore to Ness to Hays areas. A
few locations in this region may see an excess of one-half inch of
much-need rainfall. Most areas will likely see three to five tenths
of an inch...along the deep low level convergence zone (surface to
800mb or so). Other scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely
develop farther east within the zone of broad southerly low level
winds and increasing moisture. Any sort of sunshine that occurs will
destabilize the atmosphere enough to support convection with 700mb
temperatures around +2C. There may be an isolated report of
marginally severe hail in the strongest storm tomorrow, however the
thermodynamic profile does not really favor hail storms given the
poor mid level lapse rates and rather moist 500-700mb layer.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

Models show the shortwave trough exiting the area on Monday, as
surface high pressure settles southward from the North Plains under
the advancing mid level ridge. This pattern will result breezy
northeast surface winds eventually veering southeast by Monday
night. The relative weak cold advection pattern should at least
limit the diurnal warming in the afternoon. Much warmer than normal
conditions are expected however by Tuesday and especially on
Wednesday as a dryline moves into the area with strong vertical
mixing potential. The upper wave pattern across the region suggest
very windy conditions on Wednesday well into the wind advisory
criteria range for the entire area, from southwest winds and first
and then with a cold front crashing through western Kansas as the
dynamic low moves through the Northern Plains. Additionally the
dryline should be the focus for deep moist convection development
in the late afternoon, with rapidly moving thunderstorms. Large
scale lift could prolong convective activity in the central Kansas
or even on a retreating dryline later into the late afternoon and
evening hours. The remainder of the week will probably bring flat
upper ridging across the high plains while another wave moves
onshore of the west coast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

An area of light rain showers will push up into southwest Kansas
early this morning. Will carry a tempo group for light rain
showers at Garden City where the bulk of these showers will move
through. Will also carry VCSH at Dodge City. Additional showers
will develop and move through the Dodge City and Hays areas
through the morning hours. Any ceilings that develop should stay
in the VFR category through this period.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

Breezy southerly winds and much warmer than normal temperatures are
anticipated for Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Dew points in the
30 and 40s should relegate relative humidities from falling below 20
percent in the warmest part of the day. A better chance for
achieving red flag conditions may occur Wednesday as a dryline
sweeps into the area with much more dry air especially west of
highway 83.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  75  53  75  47 /  60  50  10   0
GCK  73  51  75  46 /  60  50  10   0
EHA  72  49  75  48 /  50  20  10   0
LBL  74  51  77  48 /  50  50  10   0
HYS  75  56  74  45 /  60  60  10   0
P28  75  56  77  47 /  50  50  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Gerard
FIRE WEATHER...Russell






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