Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 270703
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
203 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

...UPDATED SHORT TERM DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. EARLIER THIS MORNING THE WATER VAPOR LOOP, AND 00Z
WEDNESDAY UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACED ONE OF THE UPPER WAVES WERE
LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE
OBSERVATION INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLE. NAM, GFS, AND HRRR WERE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND BASED ON 06Z VERIFICATION OF THE UPPER WAVE AND
AREA FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION THESE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS EARLY MORNING EVENT. WILL THEREFORE KEEP HIGH
CHANCE OR EVEN LIKELY WORDING FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST
15Z ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THE UPPER
WAVE PASSES.

AS THIS FIRST SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
LATER THIS MORNING...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS
TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE NOSE OF AN 300MB JET STREAK AND IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET LATE
TODAY/EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH MOISTURE, AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAIN HAZARD CURRENTLY APPEARS TO
BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, HOWEVER A FEW OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
MAY ALSO PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND TREND
TOWARDS WHAT THE 850MB 00Z THURSDAY MIX DOWN TEMPERATURES
SUGGESTED FOR HIGHS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND THE 00Z
850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
MID 80S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
ELSEWHERE. IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE MORE SUN AND LESS CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES TO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT OF THE ROCKIES, A PREVAILING
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS PROVIDING INCREASED
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE, AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO POOL AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN A
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WITH H85 DEWPOINTS UP NEAR 15C.
ADDITIONALLY, A +70KT UPPER LEVEL JET LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS, IS PROJECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS TOWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH IN A CORRIDOR OF INCREASED INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP SHIFTS EASTWARD MORE INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MIGRATES FURTHER EAST. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES FURTHER EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WHILE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY EVEN AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW H85 TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND 20C ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WITH THE WARMEST AIR IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO
THE 80S(F) THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR 90F STILL POSSIBLE IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
FRIDAY AS A NORTHERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE
TROUGH. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
KANSAS AS A RESULT WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 20C NEAR
THE I-70 CORRIDOR. HIGHS ONLY UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S(F) ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOMEWHAT INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITIONS
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING AT LEAST
TWO SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL BE CROSSING SOUTHWEST KANSAS
OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. FIRST OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
CROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND
WILL CROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
BASED ON THE MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THERE WILL BE A CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS IN ALL THREE
TAFS EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
00Z NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE CLOUD BASES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AT OR ABOVE THE 3000FT AGL LEVEL.
GUSTY WINDS WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM EARLY
THIS MORNING OR LATER THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THE PREVAILING WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS AT AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  92  68  87  66 /  60  50  50  50
GCK  90  66  85  63 /  40  50  50  40
EHA  89  64  84  62 /  40  50  50  40
LBL  92  67  87  64 /  40  50  50  40
HYS  91  68  86  66 /  60  60  50  50
P28  96  71  89  69 /  30  50  60  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...BURGERT


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