Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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040
FXUS63 KDDC 220732
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
132 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 115 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Snow and blowing snow conditions will linger across central Kansas
through mid to late morning as the core of the upper level system
across eastern Kansas lifts northeast through the Central Plains,
effectively bringing an end to precip chances across western Kansas
this afternoon through the remainder of the period. Strong northwest
winds will gradually subside through this afternoon and evening as
a deepening surface low shifts east-northeast out of eastern Kansas,
in turn relaxing the pressure gradient across western Kansas. Limited
to elevated fire weather conditions will exist this afternoon due in
part to the gusty northwest winds and lowering relative humidity.

Cold air surging into western Kansas today will result in much
lower high temperatures today. Expect highs only into the 30s(F)
across central Kansas this afternoon, especially with cloud cover
holding on the longest here. Highs in the 40s(F) are more likely
further south and southwest. Look for lows down into the teens(F)
across west central Kansas to the 20s(F) in south central Kansas
under mostly skies with much lighter winds.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 130 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

A much drier pattern will prevail across western Kansas through at
least Thursday as ridging aloft building across the Intermountain
West shifts out into the Central Plains during the week. A west-
northwest downslope flow will help erode the cold air mass across
the Western High Plains Tuesday, allowing H85 temperatures to push
up near to slightly above 0C in the afternoon. Widespread highs in
the 40s(F) can be expected under plenty of sunshine. The gradual
warming trend will continue through Thursday as lee side troughing
develops and strengthens across eastern Colorado in response to
the ridging aloft moving across the Western High Plains. This will
easily push highs well above normal Thursday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

A strong winter storm will move eastward across the Western High
Plains into the Central Plains overnight. Snow and blowing snow
conditions are likely in the vicinity of KHYS generally after 03Z
resulting in IFR cigs/vsbys through mid to late morning. Although
to a lesser degree, KGCK and KDDC will be effected with MVFR cigs
and possible MVFR vsbys due to snow and blowing snow conditions.
VFR conditions will return to all TAF sites by early to mid
afternoon Monday. A strengthening surface low will move east-
northeast out of eastern Kansas into the Great Lakes Region
through this afternoon. As a result, strong northwest winds 30 to
40kt will persist across western Kansas overnight with gusts
upward of 50kt toward daybreak. The winds will then gradually
subside through late Monday afternoon as the surface low moves
out of eastern Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  43  22  49  21 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  40  20  46  19 /  20   0   0   0
EHA  48  21  48  20 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  47  20  49  19 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  37  20  43  19 /  90   0   0   0
P28  45  24  51  23 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
KSZ043>046-061>066.

Winter Storm Warning until noon CST today for KSZ030-031.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson



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