Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261900
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, A STRONG
JET CORE IS PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS
EDGING INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS
OF 100KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS NAM/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW MID/HIGH
LEVEL VERTICAL PROFILES BEGINNING TO SATURATE. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOT QUITE AS COOL TONIGHT FROM THIS
MORNING`S LOW TEMPERATURES, EVEN AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE
NORTHERLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL AIR
MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET CORE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS MAY HELP KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE FROM THE NIGHT PREVIOUS WITH LOWS ONLY DOWN
INTO THE 30S(F) FOR THE MOST PART WITH NEAR 40F POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
SOUTH ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. FOR FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES
WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP DRAW WARMER AIR NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN KANSAS WITH H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AROUND 10C
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO NEAR 15C OUT NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.
EXPECT HIGHS UP NEAR 60F ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO WELL UP INTO THE
70S(F) IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHERE SOME DOWNSLOPING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPING. HIGHS MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S(F) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DEPENDING ON HOW
LONG MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

OVERALL, THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE RATHER UNEVENTFUL BY LATE
MARCH STANDARDS DURING THE PERIOD FROM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID-NEXT
WEEK. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WEST WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. A NORTHWEST
FLOW JET STREAK WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY, AND A REINFORCING POLAR SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS,
AFFECTING MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE FRIDAY WITH A FAIRLY SHARP
WEST-TO-EAST GRADIENT EXPECTED. WILL BE GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS TO AROUND 60 FROM HAYS TO
PRATT. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE OFF SATURDAY WITH A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH
IN ADVANCE OF A FAIRLY SMALL SCALE, BUT SOMEWHAT INTENSE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MUCH WARMER HIGHS WILL BE
REALIZED, ESPECIALLY OUT WEST WHERE LOWER 80S APPEAR LIKELY. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTH, RESULTING
IN A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES LESS
THAN SATURDAY, BUT STILL ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR LATE
MARCH. THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY WITH
CONTINUED ZONAL MOMENTUM ACROSS THE ROCKIES LEADING TO A LOT OF
LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERIC DOWNSLOPE. THE PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH MAY
ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO COME BACK UP INTO KANSAS BY MID NEXT WEEK,
BUT IT IS UNCLEAR HOW THIS WILL BE MANIFEST AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GO WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAM JETS EVOLVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TURNING WINDS NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 15 TO
25KT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE MID TO
LATE EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MUCH OF KANSAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  35  70  41  77 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  34  72  40  79 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  38  73  42  82 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  37  73  41  81 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  31  64  38  75 /  10  10   0   0
P28  37  63  41  77 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJOHNSON
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON



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