Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 280500
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

In the very near term, continue to monitor convective trends on GOES-
16 Visible and Clean IR Channels, noting increasing convective
trends off all three of the main terrain ridges (Cheyenne, Palmer
Divide, Raton Mesa). Of most interest for our forecast area will be
Palmer Divide activity. As of mid afternoon, early convection is
going up in a very high LCL environment with T-Td spreads around 40
degF. The moisture mix-out has reduced SBCAPE some, to about 1500-
2000 J/kg across far eastern CO into far west central KS. Deep layer
shear is only marginally favorable for supercell structures, but
directional shear is certainly there with about 90-degree angle
between 1km and 6km AGL vectors. It is uncertain in what form
convection will be once they reach far west-central KS this evening.
There may be a small cluster underway with a semi-established cold
pool, thus limiting hail risk with more of a high wind risk through
mid evening. We will maintain 30-35 percent POPs from Syracuse to
Scott City to Wakeeney. A fairly decent shortwave trough moving
across Wyoming this evening will provide at least weak forcing for
ascent across western KS through the night to help sustain activity
beyond sunset. A strong low level jet will also help keep convection
going, and there is growing confidence in convective-allowing model
Composite Reflectivity fields that sub-severe convection should
fester through the overnight hours along roughly I-70 corridor in a
loosely organized manner. POPs may need to be increased of the HRRR
continues its trend of back-building convection across west-central
KS after 05z.

Going into Wednesday, the aforementioned shortwave trough will
result in a surface front pushing into western Kansas early in the
day. With summer insolation and continued westerly momentum aloft,
this front will stall out roughly Hugoton to Garden City to Hays by
midday. Along and ahead of the front, afternoon temperatures should
reach mid-upper 90s without much problem. The front is expected to
slowly lose its identity late in the afternoon with post-frontal
winds veering around to the southeast, shifting the focus for late-
day convection back over the terrain-favored region(s) of Colorado.
There is only one model that attempts deep moist convection along
the former front itself and that is the 3km Nested NAM, as it fires
storms from roughly Meade to Greensburg to Stafford between 21z and
00z (12z run of this model). None of the other CAMs show this, so
confidence is fairly low at initiation on the front.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Wednesday Night: There is increasing confidence of a supercell
thunderstorm or two rolling east-southeast into northwest KS,
perhaps evolving into a small MCS after dark as it approaches
roughly Scott City to Wakeeney corridor (and points east-southeast
from there). This is where highest POPs will be in the grids, but
only at 20-30 percent.

Thursday:  Should another nocturnal MCS roll across northern-central
KS, an outflow boundary will likely lay across central KS somewhere.
Even if not, NAM12 shows a decent synoptic surface circulation
across southwest KS by early afternoon at or just east of DDC, with
a warm front extending northeast from there into central KS. The
upper level pattern shows a broad cyclonically-curved flow with 40-
50 knots at 6km AGL. NAM12 also shows a dryline feature extending
south of the surface low down into the eastern TX Panhandle. 500mb
temperatures will be around -9 to -10C late afternoon across our
area, which is fairly cool for 29 June. The pattern is more
reminiscent of late May or early June vs. 29 June, and is shaping up
to be a fairly classic looking severe weather setup for portions of
southwest, south central, and central KS.

Friday: Mean mid-level trough axis moves off to the east, centered
from Upper Midwest to the lower Missouri Valley, with cooler high
pressure at the surface in place. This would yield drier weather
Friday and temperatures back down to lower to mid 80s for highs.

Saturday:  A general west-northwest flow pattern in place, with
leeside low pressure trying to redevelop again in southeast
CO/northeast NM. This should bring moisture back into far southwest
KS and into eastern CO supporting higher terrain activity which
would then move into western KS. Again, not all that hot,
temperature wise, with highs in the upper 80s.

Sunday: Absence of characteristic summer subtropical high is
noteworthy, with west-northwest flow continuing across higher
terrain. Perhaps a better opportunity for a more active lee trough
convective episode than Saturday. Slightly warmer temperatures than
Saturday with highs most likely lower 90s areawide.

Beyond:  One last northwest flow day, fairly convectively active
across the High Plains on Monday, then the summer subtropical high
starts to build across the Southwest by Tuesday. This would probably
put us in to a drier regime with daily highs back into the mid-upper
90s...and eventually some lower 100s perhaps by Day 9-10 (July 5-6
or so)

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

A strong low level jet will continue to produce widespread LLWS
through sunrise. South winds will remain elevated in response,
gusting at times to near 30 kts. Thunderstorms approaching HYS as
of 05z will affect the HYS terminal for several hours this
morning, and included a convective TEMPO group. HRRR model is
enthusiastic with spreading these storms as far south as GCK/DDC
overnight, but will wait for radar trends to confirm before adding
a convective mention to the GCK/DDC TAFs. After sunrise, SW winds
will remain strong and gusty to near 30 kts for a few hours, as
the low level jet mixes out and weakens. Winds are expected to
weaken substantially at all airports by 18z Wed. Low level jet
reestablishes from LBL to DDC from 00-06z Thu, with 850 mb winds
of 55-60 kts, for more LLWS. Airports will be dry and convection
free through 00z Thu. After 00z Thu, strongest instability
expected near HYS, where VCTS/CB was included.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70  96  69  95 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  68  95  65  93 /  20  10  10  10
EHA  66  96  64  95 /  20   0   0  10
LBL  69  98  68  97 /  10   0  10  10
HYS  70  93  67  91 /  30  10  30  10
P28  71  97  72  98 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner


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