Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 260545
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS FELT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM THIS EVENING SHOULD MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT TO MORE
OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION TOMORROW AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES THROUGH
THE CWA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS
WITH INCREASING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWS OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH AROUND 30 DEGREES ELSEWHERE. HIGHS TOMORROW ARE ANTICIPATED
TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CENTRAL KANSAS
WHERE HIGHS AROUND 60 DEGREES LOOKS MORE LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE AN H5 VORT MAX DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN
OUTSIDE SHOT FOR PRECIP TO EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS.
ALTHOUGH THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, A JET CORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 VORT MAX MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW ISOLATED HIGH
BASED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OUT WEST BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD, MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY.

THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS ABOUT A WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL HELP RAISE H85
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE 10C ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS.
LOOK FOR HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 60S(F) FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
LOWER TO MID 70S(F) POSSIBLE IN EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE
WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST INTO THE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND LEE SIDE TROUGHING PREVAILS
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S(F) ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY WITH THE LOWER 80S(F) NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY WILL HALT THE WARMING TREND DROPPING HIGHS BACK DOWN NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

A NARROW POST FRONTAL VERY LIGHT RAIN BAND IS NOW EXITING THE
REGION. A CLEARING LINE IS NOTABLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL,
AND CLEARING ANTICIPATED AT HYS AND DDC IN THE COMING HOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS BECOMING MORE GUSTY ONCE BONDARY LAYER MIXING DEVELOPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  33  68  41  76 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  33  70  41  78 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  35  72  42  80 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  34  71  41  78 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  31  63  38  72 /  20  10   0   0
P28  34  63  41  74 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...RUSSELL


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