Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 161150
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
650 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

A nice and tranquil weather day is expected today. Aloft, a dry
northwest flow will continue. At the sfc, weak lee troughing will
prevail. The net result is mainly clear skies and highs in the
lower to mid 70s. With the breezy winds and warm temperatures, the
fire weather hazard will be elevated for portions of the forecast
area. Still, only humidities dropping down to 20-25% will
preclude from Red Flag Warning at this time. For tonight, the
tranquil and dry weather continues. Lows in the 40s still looks on
track with the most recent guidance.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

The pattern above more-or-less remains unchanged for Tuesday.
Winds may be slightly weaker and highs look to be slightly warmer.
Fire weather doesn`t appear to be elevated as higher dewpoints
will advect in with the continued southerly winds/lee troughing.
For Wednesday, SW KS ends up in split aloft and a weak high at
the surface. Highs will continue to increase a few degrees with
values flirting around the 80F mark. The warm and tranquil weather
prevails Thursday and Friday. The 00Z EC shows a weather system
moving across the state with an associated fropa and the threat
for showers/thunderstorms. Most of the BL moisture in the model is
SE for the forecast area, so not expecting any significant rains
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Broad high pressure over southern Plains with a weak trough across
the higher terrain today will be a setup for moderate southwest
surface winds today. Local GFSMOS is indicating surface winds
gusts around 25 knots through the afternoon and ending abruptly
around sunset. This dry pattern will ensure no restrictions from
cigs or vsbys through the TAF period. Moderate wind shear in the
lowest 2000 ft may develop late this evening into the overnight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  73  43  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  74  40  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  74  45  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  73  40  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  74  43  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
P28  73  44  75  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Russell



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