Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 022346
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
546 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
...Updated aviation discussion...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
Stubborn wraparound snow showers holding on from Scott City to
Kinsley, and from Garden City to Dodge City. Have noted the Garden
City visibility falling to 1/4 mile as of 1130 AM. Expanded likely
snow chances further south through 3 pm, when all guidance shows
wraparound precipitation collapsing.
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
Mature cyclone near Omaha accelerating away from SW KS. Remaining
wraparound snow showers will dissipate early this afternoon. Main
impact through this afternoon will be very strong NW winds, as
pressure gradient behind the departing storm remains very tight.
Wind gusts of 40-45 mph have been routine, and will continue
through about 4 pm. Areas of blowing snow will continue across
northern zones, on the new snowpack, through the afternoon. As
such, will let the winter storm warning for our northern zones
continue until its natural expiration at 6 pm. Travel remains
dangerous this afternoon along the I-70 corridor. Continued a
mention of blowing snow in the grids through midnight across
northern zones, as the NW winds will only slowly subside.
Cold air advection will continue tonight, pushing most locales
well down into the teens, and an elevated NW breeze will drive
wind chill factors to 0-5 degrees through Wednesday morning.
Not close to our wind chill advisory of -15, but it will be
uncomfortably cold for the Wednesday morning commute.
Wednesday...Cold, dry and mostly cloudy. Cold cyclonic flow
persists across Kansas, keeping temperatures well below early
February normals. Forecasting a high of 33 at Dodge City, compared
to the normal high of 46. Northern areas on the snowpack will fail
to reach freezing Wednesday afternoon. NW winds will continue, but
at reduced speeds, averaging 10-20 mph. Embedded weak shortwave in
the NW flow will enhance mid layer clouds through the day, as
shown by GFS RH cross sections/soundings. Kept plenty of clouds in
the grids on Wednesday, which will add to the chill.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
Entire long term forecast for SW KS is dry. Quite cold Wednesday
night, under a clear sky, with teens common, and single digits on
the snowpack across the northern counties. Weak high pressure
ridge axis approaches on Thursday, allowing afternoon temperatures
to moderate back to the mid to upper 40s, except 30s on the
A vigorous shortwave near Tucson, Arizona Friday morning will pass
well south of SW KS into W TX Friday afternoon. Associated trough
axis will traverse the CWA as well. No precipitation expected from
this moisture-starved system, although clouds will increase on
Friday. Warming trend that began on Thursday is halted, with
afternoon highs several degrees below normal. Broad ridging will
again allow temperature moderation on Saturday, well into the 40s,
with the southern zones near 50. This warming trend will not last
either, as an arctic airmass spills into the northern plains on
Sunday. 12z ECMWF offers the coldest solution this coming weekend,
with northerly 850 mb winds of 45 kts on Sunday. At any rate, the
forecast will be dry, as strong dry NW flow will prevent any
moisture from returning to SW KS.
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Wednesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016
Strong northwest winds, occasionally gusting to around 40 knots,
will persist at the terminals for a few hours into this TAF period
but should gradually diminish. Occasional MVFR and low VFR cigs
will also continue through about 06z. By later tonight, winds
should diminish to around 15 knots.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 17 33 16 44 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 14 31 11 40 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 18 35 16 45 / 0 10 10 0
LBL 17 37 17 47 / 0 10 10 0
HYS 17 28 12 35 / 10 0 0 0
P28 23 37 19 48 / 0 0 0 0
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ030-031-