Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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270
FXUS63 KDDC 201732
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1232 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Dry conditions will persist across western Kansas through late
Sunday afternoon as short range models indicate an upper level
shortwave trough pushing further east into the Great Lakes Region,
giving way to a more zonal flow aloft across the Western High
Plains. Meanwhile, broad surface high pressure will drift east-
southeast across the Northern and Central Plains ushering much
drier air southward into the high plains. Along with a weakening
flow aloft and little instability, precip chances will remain
absent across the region through the remainder of the weekend.

Clearing skies, light winds, and much cooler air filtering southward
into western Kansas will allow temperatures to drop well below normal
tonight. Considering surface dewpoints are already falling into the
40s(F), look for lows well down into the 50s(F) with a few upper 40s(F)
possible in some locations, particularly across central Kansas near
the I-70 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 235 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

A warming trend will commence by early next week ahead of the
next upper level trough. There is a chance of thunderstorms
Tuesday and Wednesday and the storms late Tuesday could be severe
with large hail given the strongly veering, albeit weak wind
profile, along with moderate surface based CAPE. Behind the
front, cooler air can be expected once again by Wednesday night
into Friday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Sunday
morning. Northerly winds 10 to 20kt will persist across western
Kansas through late this afternoon as surface high pressure moves
slowly east-southeast into the Northern and Central Plains. Winds
will then become light and variable tonight as the surface high
continues to shift across the Central Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  77  55  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  77  53  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  78  57  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  78  55  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  77  53  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
P28  80  55  84  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...JJohnson



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