Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 250515
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1215 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

Precip will remain absent across western Kansas through early
Tuesday as short range models indicate a weak northwest flow aloft
prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of a building
upper level ridge across the Intermountain West. Although low
level moisture will begin lifting back north into western Kansas
overnight, a lack of instability will result in persistent dry
conditions through much of the period. Warmer low temperatures are
likely tonight as prevailing southerlies in the lower levels draw
slightly warmer air northward into western Kansas. Look for lows
generally down into the 60s(F) toward daybreak Tuesday morning.
The warming trend will continue for highs Tuesday as warm air
advection persists across western Kansas. Highs are expected
mainly up into the lower to mid 90s(F) with a few upper 80s(F)
still possible in central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

An outside chance for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms will
be possible across portions of central Kansas late Tuesday night as
an upper level jet max crests the ridge axis across the Northern
Rockies and dives southeast into the Central Plains. A prevailing
southeasterly upslope flow will draw moisture up into central and
portions of western Kansas with surface dewpoints pushing back up
into the 60s(F). This will result in steadily increasing
instability based on NAM/GFS model soundings, supporting the
potential for isolated pockets of showers and thunderstorms late
Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Thunderstorm chances
pick up toward the end of the week as the GFS and ECMWF indicate
an upper level shortwave cresting the ridge axis across the
Central Rockies Wednesday night and moving out into the Western
High Plains Thursday. As the shortwave kicks out of the Rockies, a
surface trough lee of the Rockies will begin to edge eastward into
western Kansas by Thursday afternoon providing the focus for
possible thunderstorms across portions of western and central
Kansas into early Friday, especially with ample moisture pooling
ahead of the approaching surface trough. Drier conditions are
expected Friday afternoon as a cold front pushes through western
Kansas late in the week.

A warming trend will likely continue Wednesday under the influence
of a prevailing low level southerly flow across western Kansas,
further enhancing warm air advection into the area. Highs are
expected to reach the lower to mid 90s(F) across central and
southwest Kansas Wednesday afternoon. Similar temperatures are
expected Thursday as the southerly flow persists with highs dropping
into the 80s(F) Friday in wake of a projected frontal passage late
in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

an upper level ridge of high pressure over the rockies will move very
slowly east through this period. at the surface, a trough of low pressure
will persist from eastern wyoming to along the kansas/colorado border.
these conditions will result in vfr conditions and southerly winds around
10 knots at the terminals through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  94  67  92 /  10  10  20  40
GCK  65  95  68  93 /  10  10  10  30
EHA  66  97  68  94 /  10  10  10  30
LBL  67  96  68  94 /  10  10  20  30
HYS  64  93  67  91 /  10  10  20  40
P28  65  93  67  92 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Gerard



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