Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 170656
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1256 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1253 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

A weak frontal boundary attendant to a fast moving upper level
shorwtave transitioning across the Northern Plains, will quickly
push through western Kansas this morning, reinforcing the drier
air mass across the region. Along with a weakening westernly flow
aloft, this will keep precip chances at bay across western Kansas
through Saturday night. Despite the brief northerly flow, little
change to the air mass is likely. So, expect highs to climb well
up into the 50s(F) to near 60F this afternoon. Should see lows
only down into the 30s(F) tonight. Of slightly more concern will
be the gusty north winds developing this afternoon in conjunction
with lowering relative humidity levels. At the very least, look
for a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions setting up
for a few hours early to mid afternoon before winds quickly subside
toward this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 346 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

The pressure gradient increases Saturday night with the deepening
low, which will cause wind to become 10-20 mph sustained, gusting
to 25 overnight from the south. Wind speed will increase with
mixing after sunrise 15-25 sustained, with gusts to 35 from the
southwest. Temperatures Sunday will reach into the 70 throughout
western Kansas. With the wind being higher and relative humidities
being lower on Sunday, elevated fire weather concerns continue.
After collaboration with other offices, it was decided to hold off
on issuing a fire weather watch for now.

On Monday afternoon, a strong cold front pushes through Kansas
ahead of an upper level trough. High temperatures on Monday will
be determined by the timing of the cold front. For now, we have
70s toward the Oklahoma border and 40s toward the north. However,
this will likely shift.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be cooler as cool Arctic air sets in.
Highs right now look to be in the 30s/upper 40s. Thursday and
Friday, warm air advection and lee troughing prevail with highs
in the 50s both days. Unfortunately, dry weather looks to continue
for the weekend...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1116 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early
Saturday evening. South winds 10 to 20kt will persist across
western Kansas overnight as a lee side trough of low pressure
slowly shifts eastward across eastern Colorado toward the Kansas
border. Winds will then turn northerly 15 to 25kt mid to late
morning as a cold front pushes through western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  28  58  36  74 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  25  58  34  75 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  33  62  35  76 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  29  60  35  77 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  25  58  33  72 /   0   0   0   0
P28  32  62  34  69 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Reynolds
AVIATION...JJohnson



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