Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 181112
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
612 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Reaching saturation again across SW Kansas this morning, with
visibility dropping here at the office and relative humidity of
100%. Something similar at Garden City, and satellite imagery
shows patchy fog/stratus trying to form. Updated to include patchy
fog in the grids through 9 AM. Currently do not expect fog to be
as dense or as widespread as yesterday, but it will be monitored.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Well-defined shortwave moving into central Kansas early this
morning, taking the convective potential with it. Lingering
thunderstorms across Ellis/Rush counties as of midnight will
depart east shortly.

High pressure builds strongly into SW Kansas today, with 500 mb
heights reaching 587-589 dm by evening. As such, a clear sky will
prevail with few if any clouds and a light SW wind. Atmosphere
warms strongly today, with an 850 mb temperature change of +7C
over yesterday. This coupled with weak downslope will deliver high
temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90. A clear sky continues
with light winds tonight. Lows Monday morning ranging from the
upper 40s across western Hamilton county, to the upper 60s across
eastern Barber county.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Summer is not over yet. Strong upper anticyclone expands over the
southern plains on Monday, with 500 mb heights reaching 593 dm by
Monday evening. Followed the warmest guidance available, with
mid 90s common Monday afternoon. Few if any clouds and very light
winds beneath the upper ridge axis.

Tuesday...More unseasonably hot temperatures, with little change
in thickness or 850 mb temperatures as upper high maintains its
influence on SW KS. Mid 90s again expected, some 15 degrees above
normal. As the lee trough reorganizes, south winds return, but not
too bad yet, at 15-25 mph.

Wednesday and Thursday...High pressure very gradually weakens during
this time. Not much change in sensible weather, though, as 850 temps
remain stagnant and downslope winds will encourage toasty temps near
90 each afternoon. With winds helping mixing, morning lows will also
be unseasonably warm, near 70 Wednesday morning.

Friday and Saturday...Medium range models including the 00z ECMWF
show consistency with prior runs, forecasting a strong closed low
near Yellowstone Wyoming Friday, and pivoting into North Dakota
Saturday. Temperatures remain unseasonably warm Friday with the
added effect of prefrontal warming. Cold front passage still looks
slated for Friday night, and this is when the model blends crank
out the highest pops in the grids. High confidence of much cooler
temperatures next weekend, but models disagree exactly how much
cooler it will be.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Areas of fog will persist through mid morning resulting IFR
cigs/vsbys in the vicinity of KGCK and KDDC. VFR conditions can
then be expected at all TAF sites through late this evening. Light
southwesterly winds will develop through this afternoon as a lee
side trough of low pressure in eastern Colorado moves into extreme
western Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  60  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  89  57  94  60 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  89  56  94  59 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  90  55  94  62 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  88  61  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
P28  89  66  94  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...JJohnson



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