Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 180510
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1210 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

...UPDATED FOR THE AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ABOVE THE ROCKIES DURING THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
INCREASED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW AS A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY
TOMORROW MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE KS/CO BORDER IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40
DEGREES ACROSS THE I-70 CORRIDOR TO MID 40S ACROSS THE KS/OK
BORDER. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD THERE ARE SUBTLE FEATURES THAT COULD
BRING A LITTLE PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.
ACTUALLY, THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A SMALL AND COMPACT S/WV TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES THAT WAS MOVING INTO FAR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE
WEEKEND.  BESIDES, BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED SO IT
APPEARS THAT THE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

THE NEXT CHANGE WILL BE ANOTHER DIGGING S/WV INTO THE SOUTHWEST
(AGAIN IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES). THE LONGER RANGE
MODELS HAVE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS DEVELOPMENT.
REGARDLESS, ANY IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY BE LATER NEXT WEEK.  THERE IS
ALREADY SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS NO NEED TO TWEAK
SMALL POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BUT THERE WILL
BE DAILY FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO CLOUD COVER THAT MOVES THROUGH.  THE
ONLY THING TO WATCH IS A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WHICH COULD ALLOW A WEAK "BACKDOOR" FRONT BY MONDAY BUT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THE IMPACTS WOULD BE GREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR WILL BE RULE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. JUST A FEW CIRRUS
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH ABOUT 20Z
TODAY. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND
BLOW AT 10 TO 17 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL AGAIN SUBSIDE TO SOUTHEAST
AFTER 01Z THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  48  75  50  73 /  10  10  10  10
GCK  47  75  47  72 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  48  77  49  72 /  10  10  10   0
LBL  47  77  50  74 /  10  10  10   0
HYS  46  73  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
P28  46  73  52  76 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOVORKA_42
LONG TERM...HUTTON
AVIATION...BURKE



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