Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDDC 130030
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
704 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
KANSAS AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT
MOVES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS SKIES CLEAR THE SURFACE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL KANSAS. MODELS TODAY ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO BE LOCATED
EAST OF HIGHWAY 283 BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 7 AM SATURDAY. BASED ON
THESE LIGHT WINDS, CLEARING SKIES, AND EXPECTED SURFACE DEW
POINTS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL UNDERCUT THE COOLER MET
GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. WILL STAY NEAR THE LATEST MET/MAV
FURTHER WEST GIVEN THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THIS SOLUTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 WITH THE THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A
PRATT TO SYRACUSE LINE.

ON SATURDAY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS A WESTERLY DOWN SLOPE FLOW
IMPROVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN KANSAS AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURES FALL ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. IN ADDITION
TO THE INCREASING WINDS ON SATURDAY THE 850MB TEMPERATURES AT 00Z
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 8C IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO 17C
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. THIS IS A 5C TO 10C WARM UP BETWEEN 00Z
SATURDAY TO 00Z SUNDAY. USING THIS AS A GUIDE FOR HIGHS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THE PREVIOUS SHIFT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FENGSHEN THAT INTENSIFIED BRIEFLY
EAST OF JAPAN ON 7 SEPTEMBER RIPPLED THROUGH THE WESTERLIES AND WAS
MOVING OVER WESTERN ALASKA ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN INTENSE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 170W THIS MORNING. STRONG RIDGING WAS IN
PROGRESS FROM THE WEST COAST OF CANADA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES INTO NORTHERN ALASKA. DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION OF A MEAN
LONG WAVE TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA WAS IN PROGRESS AND LIKELY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN
THE POLAR JET WILL MOVE OVER THE PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE RIDGE AND DIG
INTO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE LONG WAVE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF ALASKA OCCLUDES AND
WEAKENS AND WILL PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BROAD RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS NEXT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, AND ANOTHER STRONG PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK.

A KELVIN WAVE WAS MOVING RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE
AND WAS CENTERED NEAR 120W THIS MORNING. THE NUMERICAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE KELVIN WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
AND ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN AFRICA BY AROUND 20 SEPTEMBER.
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AS THE KELVIN WAVE PASSES, AND ENHANCED HIGH LEVEL
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE MAY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WILL DIG INTO THE
DAKOTAS SUNDAY, AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN EASTERN
COLORADO. A PLUME OF WARM AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL SPREAD ACROSS KANSAS
SUNDAY, AND H7 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 10C IN WESTERN KANSAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG
A WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY, BUT
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT LIKELY WILL PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN COLORADO MAY APPROACH THE KANSAS BORDER SUNDAY EVENING
BUT PROBABLY WILL BE NORTH OF HAMILTON COUNTY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD
REACH MEDICINE LODGE BY LATE MORNING MONDAY. THE GFS AND GEM ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DIGS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THAN THE GFS AND ARE A
LITTLE FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A NUMBER OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN
AND ARE MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GEM. THE PREPONDERANCE
OF EVIDENCE SUPPORTS THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT, AND THE ECMWF
LARGELY WAS USED FOR MINOR GRID ADJUSTMENTS. THE FRONT WILL PASS
DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS UNDER A PLUME OF WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT,
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL BE
CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS WHERE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND ISENTROPIC LIFTING WILL ENHANCE
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE WARM SECTOR. WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL
MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOL DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE ELEVATED FRONTOGENETIC REGION BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY, BUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TUESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LIKELY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. A MINOR UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY, AND A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND ADDITIONAL
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS AS A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND
ENHANCES ISENTROPIC LIFTING IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE BOUNDARY
MAY STILL BE WALLOWING IN KANSAS THURSDAY, AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR IN CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT.
BY SATURDAY A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN KANSAS AND PROVIDE
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. TROPICAL HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ODILE MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH THE
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN KANSAS TONIGHT,
ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN CLEARING OF
THE MVFR DECK BY 04Z AT KHYS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AFTER
12Z AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY KEEP MFVR CIGS AT DDC/GCK THROUGH 14Z UNTIL DAYTIME
HEATING ERODES THE CLOUD DECK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  37  67  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  36  68  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  39  72  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  38  71  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  35  64  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
P28  39  68  52  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BURGERT
LONG TERM...RUTHI
AVIATION...FINCH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.