Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 121846
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1246 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

...Updated synopsis and short term sections...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

An upper level ridge of high pressure is located over the Rockies
with a long wave trough over the east coast. This places the
Central High Plains under northwest flow aloft. High to mid levels
of the atmosphere over western Kansas are fairly dry leaving only
a few high clouds visible across western Nebraska and northwest
Kansas. Some of these clouds may make it into portions of west and
west central Kansas this afternoon. As we head to the surface, low
levels of the atmosphere are saturated across portions of central
and western Kansas leading to a deck of low stratus extending
north and east of a line from Colby to Kingman. This deck of
clouds is slowly shifting southeast, however, these clouds are
expected to dissipate over the next couple of hours. An area of
low pressure with associated stationary front is sprawled out
across eastern Colorado with a dome of high pressure filtering
into the Northern Plains. This will lead to winds backing from the
northeast this afternoon to more of an easterly direction this
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Low clouds are expected to form once again over north, west
central, and north central Kansas tonight with mostly clear skies
expected elsewhere. This deck of clouds may be thick enough for
light freezing drizzle to fall, mainly north of Highway 96. Winds
look to back form an easterly direction this evening, then
shifting southeast by midnight. Low clouds are expected to extend
into Oklahoma by sunrise tomorrow but then slowly dissipate by mid
afternoon like we saw today. Winds take more of a southerly
direction with an increase in speed tomorrow as the area of low
pressure mentioned in the synopsis intensifies and slides into
southeastern Colorado. The dome of high pressure will continue to
build across Northern and Central Plains. As for temperatures,
lows tonight look to range from the upper teens across north
central Kansas to upper 20s across far southwestern Kansas. Highs
tomorrow are anticipated to range from the mid 30s across north
central Kansas to mid 60s across far southwestern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

The significant temperature gradient continues into the weekend as a
cold airmass will still be influencing the central Kansas counties.
Sunday will be the day westerly flow returns, warming highs back
into the 50s across the entire area, and setting off the beginning
of another waring trend that will last through the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

MVFR conditions look to improve to VFR this afternoon across the
HYS terminal with a brief period of of low clouds possible above the
DDC terminal over the next hour or two. Otherwise expect VFR
conditions at the DDC terminal. VFR conditions are expected
across the GCK terminal throughout the afternoon into the evening.
Low clouds look to reform across the HYS terminal after sunset and
persist through late morning tomorrow. There could be a brief
period of low clouds move into the DDC and GCK terminals towards
sunrise tomorrow but have left the mention of this out of the TAFs
at this time. Winds will start out from the northeast this
afternoon slowly backing to the southeast by midnight tonight.
Wind speeds should remain below 12 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  21  45  30  56 /  10   0  10  10
GCK  23  52  30  57 /  10  20   0  10
EHA  29  64  37  58 /  20   0   0  10
LBL  26  57  32  59 /   0   0  10  10
HYS  19  36  27  52 /  20  20   0  10
P28  21  43  32  57 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hovorka_42
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...Hovorka_42


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