Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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594
FXUS63 KDDC 201756
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1156 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Vigorous shortwave moving across SW KS this afternoon. Have
expanded pop grids for rain showers, and included thunder, given
CAMs and modest instability. Coverage will favor areas along and
north of U.S. Highway 50.

Cloud ceilings are expected to lift this evening, as subsidence
arrives behind the departing shortwave. With the sky clearing
briefly for several hours through Saturday morning, models hint at
the potential for patchy radiational fog. Included patchy areas of
fog in the grids, but confidence is not as high as previous
nights. Dry air advection will allow temperatures to fall into the
upper 20s at many locales by sunrise Saturday.

Saturday...Only a small break of partial clearing in the morning,
before the next shortwave quickly approaches during the afternoon.
Clouds will be increasing and lowering during the afternoon.
Despite this, atmosphere remains mild, with afternoon temperatures
in the lower to mid 50s. Winds will back to SE/E and increase
some after noon, in response to strong cyclogenesis in the
northern Texas panhandle by 6 pm. Most of Saturday will be dry,
but consensus of model guidance begins to spread light rain into
the SW zones during the afternoon. As such, increased pop grids to
the chance category for light rain, from Elkhart to Hugoton to
Liberal.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 200 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Yet another trof is progged to move across the Southern Plains over
the weekend. Again, some light showers and snow showers will be possible
with this second feature. The main low is forecast rather far south,
so precipitation along the OK state line will be light and much of our
area will remain dry. Beyond this, a third system moves across Nebraska
Tuesday and Wednesday, leaving much of southwest Kansas dry. After that,
a dry pattern is forecast from the ECMWF. Temperatures look fairly warm
through the weekend with 50s. A slight cool down is forecast in the
wake of the weather systems next week with mainly 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Complicated TAF package. Degraded flight categories will continue
for the next several hours, with MVFR stratus at GCK/DDC and fog
slowly dissipating at HYS. A strong shortwave will bring scattered
light rain showers, and isolated -TSRA, through this afternoon.
Coverage of this activity will be limited, so only included VCSH
for now. -SHRA will remain in the vicinity of HYS into the
evening. Ceilings are expected to gradually improve this evening
as the shortwave departs. Models are hinting at patchy fog
developing again around 09z Sat as the sky clears, but confidence
is low, so only included modest vis reductions in BR and VCFG for
now. Winds will not be a factor during this TAF cycle, averaging
near or less than 10 kts.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  49  28  54  31 /  30  10  10  20
GCK  48  26  51  29 /  30  10  10  20
EHA  51  27  51  30 /  10   0  30  30
LBL  55  27  53  30 /  10   0  30  30
HYS  47  31  52  31 /  30  20   0   0
P28  53  33  58  35 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Turner



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