Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 221702
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1202 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Water vapor imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate an upper
level ridge of high pressure moving eastward out of the Colorado
Rockies into the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, a strong upper
level trough of low pressure is digging southeast across the
Pacific Northwest. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low
pressure is strengthening across extreme eastern Colorado. Drier
air remains in place across central and southwest Kansas with
surface dewpoints primarily in the 30s(F).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Through today, the upper level ridge will continue to move east out
over the Plains states while a strong shortwave trough moves into
the Intermountain west. The surface ridge will move east as well.
Warm air advection will increase in the low to mid levels over the
central High Plains today, along with some increasing low level
moisture. The far southwest portion of Kansas will see the warmest
afternoon high temperatures in the lower 80s while in central Kansas
around Hays, temperatures should manage to climb into the mid to
upper 70s. As surface pressure falls occur int he lee of the Rockies
today, a strong surface pressure gradient will develop across
western Kansas with breezy to windy conditions developing.

The models continue to indicate thunderstorms developing over eastern
Colorado this afternoon. As warm air advection continues to strengthen
in the lower levels, widely scattered elevated storms should continue
to build eastward into western Kansas especially as a low level jet
strengthens overnight. Will continue to show an eastward progression
of the best thunderstorm chances overnight as the low level jet veers
to the northeast overnight. Have brought thunderstorm chances a little
bit farther south than previously indicated. Overnight lows will be
mild...staying in the mid to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Little overall change was seen in the overall forecast expectation
for days 2 and 3, or Wednesday and Thursday. The ECMWF and the NAM
continue to show the moistening of the lower levels through moisture
transport on southerly winds in advance of a surface dryline on
Wednesday and large scale lift Wednesday into Wednesday evening. The
pattern is still supportive of severe storms given the deep layer
shear and instability expected to be present with the greatest
threat during the late afternoon and evening across the warm sector
(most likely from around Garden City/highway 83, eastward into
central Kansas. Convection could linger into the evening and
overnight from around Hays to Stafford and Medicine Lodge, as the
cold front becomes a secondary focus for storms. Subsidence should
become well established by early Thursday resulting in cooler
afternoon high temperatures. Thursday into Friday will bring a
slowly amplifying upper ridge across the central High Plains with
surface features resulting in breezy northwest winds Thursday to
light and more variable by Friday. Difluent flow aloft returns by
the weekend as the next significant wave digs into the southern
Rockies by Saturday. Periods of showers or thunderstorms could occur
(or complete dry slotting) anytime during the weekend with large
uncertainty in timing or coverage with such a pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early
Wednesday morning. Southerly winds of 15 to 20kt will continue to
slowly increase to around 25 to 30kt this afternoon as a lee side
trough strengthens across eastern Colorado. Winds will subside
somewhat tonight with the loss of daytime heating, then increase
again above 20kt Wednesday as the strong lee side trough remains
anchored to the west.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

A fire weather watch was issued for Stanton, Grant, Morton and
Ulysses counties for Wednesday afternoon. This region may have the
best opportunity to remain behind the dryline and ahead of the cold
front/convection long enough for several hours of 30 mph average
winds and relative humidities in the low teens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79  53  83  46 /   0  10  50  70
GCK  81  55  85  44 /  10  20  40  50
EHA  83  58  87  44 /  10  20  20  20
LBL  83  57  86  45 /   0  10  30  40
HYS  77  53  83  45 /   0  20  60  90
P28  80  53  83  52 /   0  10  40  70

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening FOR KSZ074-075-084-085.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson
FIRE WEATHER...Russell






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