Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
FXUS63 KDDC 122100
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
300 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2013
...Updated long term section...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST THU DEC 12 2013
The longwave trough had dampened to a more zonal pattern across the
northeastern half of the CONUS today. A fairly substantial mid level
baroclinic zone remained across the eastern CONUS with 700mb
temperatures in the -20 to -25C range across the Great Lakes...to +3
to +5C across the Gulf Coast states. The lower troposphere was
warming up, as was seen on the 850mb analysis this morning, amidst
broad mid level height rises across much of the Great Plains. 850mb
temperatures were above 0C at UNR, LBF, and DDC. The downslope
warming was most pronounced across western Kansas with 850mb
temperature at DDC of +8C.
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
ISSUED AT 229 AM CST THU DEC 12 2013
Based on the model fields, the best 850 mb level warm advection
occurs overnight (this morning). As the 850 mb trough becomes less
tied to the front range, and positioned farther east the downslope
flow effect should become more pronounced. Weak adiabatic warming in
combination with maximum insolation will contribute to producing
some of the warmest temperatures since December 3rd across southwest
Kansas. Current WRF model temperatures fields will have to be
discounted today, (as well as their influence in blended/consensus
solutions) as the snow has melted away. The snow is still having a
negative impact in the model temperature fields. We would still favor
the warmer temperatures of the WRF farther west near the Colorado
line in excess of 50 degrees, but Hays is likely too cold according
to the mesoscale models. Wind gusts will be minimal as the boundary
layer will only mix out to around 900 mb dry adiabatically.
The changing sky cover will be the primary forecast problem for
tonight. This will be associated with a developing baroclinic leaf
now forming across western Mexico and west Texas. The increasing sky
cover should be thick mid level clouds with some scattered to broken
lower stratus focused over central Kansas. As with any synoptic
feature, large uncertainly exists. Model consensus for minimum
temperatures range from the low 20s or teens from Syracuse to Hays,
while less cold temperatures are expected across the more likely
cloudy south and central counties, from Meade to Saint John and
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013
The upper level trough and surface low pressure system mentioned in
the short term will continue to shift into eastern Kansas and Mid
Mississippi Valley Friday night into Saturday morning. Wrap around
moisture from this system will allow clouds to remain across Central
and South Central Kansas with partly cloudy skies expected
elsewhere. Clear to partly cloudy skies are then expected throughout
the day Saturday with winds generally from a northerly direction.
Lows Saturday morning will generally be in the lower 20s with highs
Saturday ranging from the upper 30s across central Kansas to mid 40s
across far southwest Kansas.
Flow above the Central High Plains then shifts to the northwest
Sunday through Wednesday as an upper level trough positions itself
across the northeast United States and an upper level ridge
positions itself across the western United States. A few shortwaves
are progged to move southeast through this flow but only affect
southwest Kansas with a slight increase in clouds and wind direction
changes. Warmer temperatures are expected through this period with
highs in the 50s and lows in the mid to upper 20s. The warmest day
will be on Monday where a few places across far southwest Kansas
could reach closer to 60 degrees.
Models continue to suggest a strong upper level wave to move
from the Pacific Northwest into the Plains Thursday through this
weekend. If this verifies, well below normal temperatures and a
chance of wintery precip will be possible across the Central Plains
this weekend. However, this system is more than a week away so
changes in thinking of this system will most likely be made as
future model runs come in.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST THU DEC 12 2013
Light south winds will be found today at GCK and HYS with a weak
pressure gradient in place around the departing large surface high.
South winds will be a little bit stronger with some higher gusts
this afternoon at DDC, however gusts should not exceed 25 knots.
Otherwise...VFR conditions are expected to prevail as any low
stratus with an approaching upper low should remain east of the
southwest Kansas region.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 29 45 21 43 / 10 10 10 0
GCK 25 46 20 44 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 28 48 23 45 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 29 48 22 45 / 10 10 0 0
HYS 22 41 17 37 / 10 10 10 0
P28 30 46 22 39 / 20 20 10 0