Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 262317

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
617 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

A large mid-upper tropospheric ridge will prevail through
Thursday, and this will lead to continued above-average
temperatures. A high pressure ridge will shift from northwest to
southeast across the Central Plains tonight, and this will result
in a prolonged period of light winds tonight. The drier airmass,
very light winds, and clear skies should allow temperatures to dip
down to the lower to mid 40s most locations (especially
along/north of Arkansas River). On Thursday, the leeside trough
will redevelop with a shift in the surface wind back to the
south/southwest. Strongest corridor of winds will be from Baca
County, CO into far west central KS with 15 to 25 mph winds
forecast by midday into the early afternoon. For temperatures,
the latest SuperBlend initialization looks good, which is above
the warmest guidance and makes sense given the dry conditions
(lower atmosphere and ground).

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

The anomalously warm temperatures (again) for this Friday still look
to be on track. The SuperBlend initialization looks pretty good, and
is taking into account the bias-correction to the gridded output and
MOS -- as SuperBlend is a good 3 or 4 degrees warmer than even the
warmest traditional guidance. Therefore, no upward change was
required. That said, if the downslope warm plume extends northeast
ahead of the approaching front as anticipated, there should
certainly be a corridor of 90+ near the Oklahoma border in the Red

The cold front Saturday will have at least a slight effect in
temperatures, but the front will struggle to reach much past
southwest Kansas, and as a result, the coldest air behind the front
will remain up in Nebraska and far northern Kansas. There are
indications from the ECMWF that the cold wedge (well, cool) will stay
locked in through Sunday preventing much of a warmup. If the cold
(cool) wedge is as strong as the ECMWF suggests, we may not get much
above 70-72 across much of southwest KS. The cool wedge will be
eradicated quickly as an intense shortwave trough ejects through the
Rockies into the Dakotas Sunday Night through Monday. Yet another
very warm plume will expand northeast across western Kansas on
Monday, so expect much warmer temperatures on Monday. The next cold
front will move down late Monday Night leading to a cooler Tuesday.
Throughout all this frontal drama, precipitation chances will be
next to zero with no moisture trajectories into southwest KS ahead
of these front.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

North to northeast winds at less than 10 knots will gradually veer
to the south southwest between 06z and 12z Thursday as a surface
ridge axis moves east from the central Plains into the Mid
Mississippi Valley. These light southwesterly winds will increase
into the 10 to 15 knot range by the early afternoon as surface
pressures begin to fall along the lee of the Rockies. VFR
conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.


DDC  48  80  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  44  82  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  47  80  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  46  81  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  48  80  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
P28  49  78  56  85 /   0   0   0   0




SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Burgert is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.