Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 202323
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
523 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Broad zonal pattern across central North America this morning is
beginning to transition to a more amplified ridge-trough pattern
over the next 24 hours. A weakly closed upper low moving into the
Pacific Northwest this morning will weaken considerably as it moves
southeast out of the northern Rockies and through the western High
Plains tonight into Tuesday morning. This system will push a cold
front south across the central Plains late tonight and Tuesday morning.
This front will be preceded by a low pressure trough that will switch
winds around from the southwest to the northwest later tonight.
With a westerly component to the winds overnight along with an
increase in mid/high level cloudiness, low temperatures should be
similar to or a few degrees warmer than the warmer MAV guidance.

Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy Tuesday morning as the upper
wave moves through. A few of the models generate some light
precipitation along the Colorado border during the morning hours.
Model soundings are not very moist, especially in the lower
levels, so think any precipitation that develops will be virga and
not reach the ground. Skies will be clearing by afternoon once the
upper wave moves through. Afternoon heating should help boost high
temperatures into the mid and upper 50s with some locations along
the Oklahoma border pushing 60.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 242 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

The more amplified upper flow pattern will continue continue
through the extended period with above to much above normal
temperatures through the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Another
shortwave trough is projected by the models to move out of the
northern Rockies into the upper Midwest on Friday. The main impact
this will have on southwest Kansas will be another cold front that
will knock temperatures back some 10-15 degrees, closer to normal,
on Saturday. The GFS and ECMWF begin to diverge considerably after
Day 7. Both models indicate a more zonal flow pattern by then with
a shortwave trough moving east across the CONUS. The ECMWF keeps
the shortwave confined to the northern tier of the country while
the GFS shows a much deeper but still progressive trough. GFS
ensembles are not very consistent with this so not as confident
this solution will pan out at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 522 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2017

Southwesterly winds at 10 knots or less will shift to the
northwest overnight as a surface cold front crosses western Kansas
between 03z and 09z Tuesday. Model soundings indicating only mid
to high level moisture will accompany an upper level disturbance
as it crosses the West Central High Plains late tonight and early
Tuesday so VFR conditions can be expected over the next 24 hours.
The northerly winds will increase into the 15 to 20 knot range
between 15z and 18z Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  38  58  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  37  56  29  64 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  40  58  33  65 /   0  10   0   0
LBL  35  59  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  38  53  26  59 /   0   0   0   0
P28  39  59  25  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gerard
LONG TERM...Gerard
AVIATION...Burgert



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