Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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359
FXUS63 KDDC 300005
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
705 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

...Updated for aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

A broad area of steep mid level lapse rates will be the focus area
for high based showers and isolated/widely scattered thunderstorms
of weak to moderate CAP and negatable bulk shear. High based light
showers and sprinkles have been ongoing through the day across the
western counties, and may continue into the late afternoon/ear.y
evening, working into a better cape axis in central Kansas. The
atmospheric profiles do indicate somewhat inverted V style
characteristics however the potential for dry air entrainment
doesn`t look great, and the boundary layer winds are quite light.
The NMM WRF was the most robust developing storms by late evening
and past midnight while other numerical models were far less
aggressive.

Most convective allowing models have showers ending before 12 UTC,
but can`t rule out the potential for lingering  shower across the
southcentral Kansas counties early Tuesday morning. Sunny sky and
similar, near normal climatological high temperatures are forecast
Tuesday. Convection that develops across the higher terrain of
southern Colorado will have more difficulty spread very far east
into western Kansas Tuesday evening. Still as few storms may be
possible at the nose of the low level jet Tuesday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

The rest of the forecast period maintains near climatological
weather, with highs only in the 80s as we head into early June. A
trough over the intermountain west breaks down by late week with
enhanced opportunity of shortwave activity for more organized late
day storm coverage.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 702 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

A weak pressure gradient will persist through the period resulting
in light winds becoming southwest at 10 kts. There may be a
thunderstorm in vicinity of KGCK through 06z. VFR contitions will
persist outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  54  81  57  85 /  20  20  20  20
GCK  51  82  55  86 /  20  20  10  20
EHA  54  80  55  85 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  55  83  57  86 /  20  20  20  20
HYS  53  81  55  82 /  20  20  10  30
P28  57  81  60  86 /  20  10  20  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Finch



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