Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 261755
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...UPDATED SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TONIGHT:

THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BROAD BRUSHED SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE REGION
AS FORCING IS WEAK AND UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. HRRR AND THE 4 KM NAM
HAVE STORMS DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL WITH 500-1500
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30-40 KT OF BULK SHEAR. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED. PROBABLY THE MOST SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THREATS WOULD BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLARS AND 60 MPH OUTFLOW WINDS. STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED
AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NOT ANTICIPATING A TORNADO THREAT
AT THIS TIME FOR THIS EVENING. THE BEST AREAS FOR STORM ACTIVITY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. OTHERWISE,
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY BASED AND WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

TOMORROW:

MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TOMORROW. AT THE LOW LEVELS,
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME BUST POTENTIAL
WITH TEMPERATURES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS LINGERING
PRECIPITATION AND THUS COOLER HIGHS. STILL THINK THE WARM SECTOR
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING
WARM TEMPERATURES. CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER
TOMORROW WITH 2000-3000 J/KG. FORECAST SHEAR OF 45 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL AS SFC
WINDS BACK EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY. THERE IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR AS WELL. POPS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH AT
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND EXTENDING INTO THE LONG TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GFS AND NAM OUT TO 84 HOURS DOES HAVE DECENT
CONTINUITY/AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE EPISODES WHILE THE EC MAY BE ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS
AGGRESSIVE IN INDICATING PCPN. DAILY INSOLATION WILL BE A MAJOR
FACTOR IN SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
AND FEEDING ON THE INSTABILITY INTO WESTERN KANSAS BOTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN FESTERING ACROSS THE
AREA VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY DOES NOT APPEAR AS
LIKELY TO HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOP AS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE. AS FAR AS THE MOST WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL, WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS THE MOST
FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE NAM MESOSCALE FIELDS (BASIC
CAPE AND SHEAR COMBINATIONS). ADDITIONALLY THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
ONLY BECOME MORE MOIST FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE LATE WEEK AS THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ONCE AGAIN INCREASES TO AROUND THE MIDWAY
POINT BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES MUCH FARTHER WEST INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. SO WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT COULD BE ANY AND
ALL MODES WITH LOCALIZED OR EVEN AREAS OF FLOODING AS WELL.

BEYOND THE MID WEEK TIMEFRAME...THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH ENTERS
THE ROCKIES REGION LATE IN THE WEEK, PLACING THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
IN GENERAL IN A ZONE OF GOOD POSITIVE VORT ADVECTION. SOMETIME
AROUND FRIDAY, ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE SHOULD BE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH COULD TRIGGER SEVERE WEATHER IF AT THE
RIGHT TIME OF THE DAY, OR SUB SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN IF THE THE
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IS WEAK. THE REGION COMES UNDER A MEAN MID
LEVEL RIDGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT EVEN THEN, THE GFS IS INDICATING
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NOCTURNAL MCS POSSIBILITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST IN RESPECT TO CONVECTION THIS EVENING. LIFT
AND FORCING IS RATHER NEBULOUS AND THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT. SO, WILL LEAVE OUT CB/TS GROUPS FOR NOW.
COULD CHANGE LATER AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS WELL. ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED, SO IMPACTS TO A SPECIFIC TERMINAL IS LOW OVERALL.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-10 KT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING ALONG
WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  78  57  79  63 /  20  20  60  60
GCK  77  55  80  61 /  20  10  50  60
EHA  77  54  81  61 /  10  20  30  50
LBL  78  57  82  62 /  20  10  50  60
HYS  78  56  79  64 /  10  10  50  70
P28  80  60  80  65 /  20  20  50  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...RUSSELL
AVIATION...SUGDEN



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