Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 271915
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
215 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

...Updated Short term and Long term Discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Radar indicating some scattered afternoon convection continuing
across western Kansas this afternoon. These showers were occurring
ahead of a 400mb PV and along the 700mb deformation zone.
Following the RAP late today into early tonight these scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms will slowly move southeast
towards Oklahoma early early tonight.

An upper level ridge axis will remain nearly stationary over the
central and northern Rockies overnight and Friday. NAM, GFS, and
ECMWF all showing another upper level wave rotating around this
upper ridge axis and out into the Central Plains on Friday,
however subtle differences on timing and track does exist. Even
with these subtle discrepancies it appears the better chances for
convection will be late Friday/Friday night but there is a slight
chance for a few storms near the Colorado border a little earlier
in the day.

Cloud cover and the forecast 900mb to 850mb temperatures at 18z
Friday and 00z Saturday continues to support another unseasonably
cool day. Highs in the 80s still appear reasonable with the cooler
temperatures in far southwest Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

An extended wet period appears to be setting up for western
Kansas given the Northwesterly flow aloft and the location of
where the GFS and ECMWF develops a mid level baroclinic zone
across western Kansas from Saturday through early next week. At
this time the most favorable area for widespread precipitation
this weekend will be west of a Hays to Coldwater line. Heavy
rainfall can be expected with these storms this weekend and given
the potential that several rounds of storms will occur over the
same area day after day there will be a chance for some water
issues to develop, especially from Saturday night through Monday.
At this time will hold off issuing any type of flood watch
products but as confidence on location, amounts, and timing
improves this may be required.

Temperatures will stay unseasonably cool this weekend into early
next week based on the expected cloud cover and precipitation
chances. Highs mainly in the 80s still looks on track but if we
get a rain through most of the day the highs for that day could
easily end up being only in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

For the first half of the work week the better chances for
precipitation will begin to shift from far western Kansas to north
central and south central Kansas. Again the main hazards from
these storms early next week will be periods of heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

IFR and MVFR ceilings are forecast to improve this afternoon as
early convection tapers off. At this time it appears that low VFR
ceilings will develop by 21z at Hays and Garden City and around
21z Thursday at Dodge City and Liberal based on the latest RAP,
NAM, ARW and NMM. Ceilings will then continue to improve early
tonight. A northeast wind at around 10 knots can be expected
through the remainder of the day. NAM model soundings indicating
that there will be a chance for MVFR ceilings returning to all
taf sites towards 12z Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  88  67  86 /  20  20  20  30
GCK  66  87  66  85 /  20  20  40  50
EHA  65  86  65  89 /  30  30  40  40
LBL  68  88  68  88 /  30  30  50  40
HYS  65  88  66  85 /   0   0  10  30
P28  71  91  68  89 /  20  10   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert



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