Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 040615
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
115 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...Updated for Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 113 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

The main forecast challenges are thunderstorm coverage early this
morning, and if the storms in eastern Colorado can hold together.
Also this afternoon`s thunderstorm forecast with another shortwave
trough and how far west the storms will be. So far the ARW East
model has the better forecast for this morning based on convective
trends. Current thoughts are the Colorado storms may hold together
and push into far western Kansas for a few hours. Then for this
afternoon, have most of the precip chances north and east of Dodge
City closer to the GFS forecast. If storms form they could become
severe with CAPES around 3000 J/kg, and mid level winds of 35 to
40kt. Today`s high temps will be cooler east and north of Dodge in
continued cloud and storm chances with highs in the mid 80s. West of
that area in lesser clouds, highs will be warm to around 90. Winds
will continue south to southeasterly at 10 to 20 mph in the
afternoon.

Tonight, storms continue strong to severe mainly east and north of
Dodge City in the Hays to Larned area until around midnight or
earlier as the upper wave passes east. Lows tonight will be in the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

The large upper level high continues south of the region through
the extended portion of the forecast with weak shortwaves moving
eastward across the northern half of the United States. A few
thunderstorms may be possible across central Kansas Tuesday night
as the previous shortwave moves out of the area but should
dissipate or move out of the forecast area by midnight. Skies
clear across central and south central Kansas overnight. A weak
frontal boundary also pushes eastward Tuesday night shifting winds
to more of a northerly direction. This continues Wednesday through
a majority of Thursday with continued mostly clear skies. A slight
chance of thunderstorms will then be possible across central
Kansas Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as a weak shortwave
moves through the flow. A few more shortwaves move through the
area this weekend into early next week bringing chances of
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.
Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies and winds generally from a
southerly direction. Lows through the extended part of the
forecast look to generally be in the mid to upper 60s Tuesday
night with upper 60s and lower 70s through the weekend. Highs will
generally be in the lower to mid 90s with Thursday being the
warmest day when upper 90s will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

A few shortwaves are forecast to bring scattered thunderstorms
after midnight tonight into the early morning, then another wave
into northwest Kansas by late afternoon and early evening.
Confidence is low on this first wave with any convection, with
much of the convection south into the Texas Panhandle with a
current MCS. With the 2nd wave will put in a vcts in the KHYS
area around 00Z. Light south to southeast moist upslope continues
today with mainly VFR conditions. Some scattered stratus and light
fog may occur early this morning if convection stays away and
skies can clear out a bit.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  66  94  68 /  10  20  10  10
GCK  90  66  94  67 /  10  10  10  10
EHA  91  66  95  68 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  92  68  96  70 /  10  10  10  10
HYS  84  66  90  68 /  30  30  10  10
P28  86  69  94  71 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kruse
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Kruse


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