Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 251129
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
529 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS MORNING...THE AREA IS SEEING MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES...MOVES EAST. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS INTO EARLY EVENING UNTIL
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE AREA TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR IS SHOWING LIGHT SCATTERED RETURNS TO
OUR NORTH AND WEST...BUT DO EXPECT CURRENT AREAL COVERAGE TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE
PLAINS REGION...SO WILL HAVE 20-30 POP RANGE FOR SOME SHOWERS
ACTIVITY...ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS FOR QPF. THE MAIN THING
THAT WILL BE EVIDENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE GRADIENT WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM TRAVERSES REGION.
MODEL CONSISTENCY OVER PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO HINT FOR 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER...TEMPS WILL BE AFFECTED WITH LACK OF SUNSHINE AND INTRO OF
COOLER AIR BEHIND SHORTWAVE. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO MODEL
GUIDANCE...GIVING THE REGION HIGHS TODAY IN THE 50S...WARMEST EAST
AND SOUTH. TONIGHT...SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AND WINDS WILL DIE
DOWN GIVING SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS TO THE AREA...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

FOR THE NEXT 48-HOUR PERIOD...THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
AFFECTS OF A BUILDING H5 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BE FOCUS OF WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME. THE
LATEST MODELS RUNS DO HAVE THIS RIDGE SHIFTING MORE EASTWARD THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS BEFORE ITS WEEKEND ARRIVAL. WITH THIS SHIFT...THE
EXPECTED SECOND SHORTWAVE FOR THURSDAY WILL BE SHIFTED A BIT MORE
EASTWARD...CUTTING BACK ON POTENTIAL LIGHT -RW FOR THE CWA. STILL
LOOKING FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR PRECIP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT ONLY EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE THIS CHANCE. THE ENTIRE
CWA HOWEVER WILL GET ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDY CONDITIONS WITH GRADIENT
ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM BRINGING IN 25 TO 35 MPH POTENTIAL FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT COMES IN DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. COOLER AIR REMAINS OVER THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY...BUT LESS CLOUD COVER SO HIGHS WILL RANGE IN
THE U50S TO NEAR 60F...AND EVEN WARMER FRIDAY WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS
BRINGING IN HIGHS NEAR 70F. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 30S TO
NEAR 40F...WARMEST FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST RUN...OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
SUGGESTS A FORECAST DEVOID OF MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION WAS THE BEST
COURSE OF ACTION ONCE AGAIN. INITIALLY ON SATURDAY...A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE UNITED STATES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE...FORCING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH.
UNFORTUNATELY...LATEST TRENDS HAVE ONCE AGAIN PULLED ANY POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION FURTHER EAST WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE. WHEN THIS OCCURS...IT SHOULD ALSO SCOUR OUT GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...KEEPING IT CONFINED WITHIN A FEW
HUNDRED MILES OF THE GULF COAST. ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...LACK OF LARGE SCALE GULF FLOW AND NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
FORCING DO NOT INSPIRE ONE TO PLACE CHANCES OF RAIN INTO THE
FORECAST. OVERALL...LOWERED OR ELIMINATED MOST POPS SUGGESTED BY THE
CR INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
INDICATION OF ANY COOLER AIR MOVING IN FROM CANADA. AS WITH WHAT AS
OCCURRED RECENTLY...ANY COLD AIR SLIDES EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WHILE WARM AIR SPREADS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM THE WEST. THERE MAY BE A FEW DAYS WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TO BE MINDFUL OF BUT LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONGEST
WINDS ARE NOT CONJOINED TO PRODUCE A HIGHER FIRE DANGER THREAT WORTH
HIGHLIGHTING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST
PERIOD. LOOKING FOR BKN080-150 THRU 00Z TONIGHT WITH VCSH. AFTER
00Z THURSDAY...FEW-SCT250. WINDS WNW NEAR 10 KTS THRU 14Z THEN
NORTH 20-30KTS. BY 00Z THURSDAY NORTH AROUND 10KTS...THEN BACKING
TO THE WEST BY 06Z-08Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JN


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