Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 282014
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
114 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

RAISED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY SO THINKING TEMPERATURES
WILL HOLD FAIRLY STEADY THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON RANGING FROM LOW
60S IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES TO LOW 70S IN THE EAST.

A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING THE AREA AT MIDDAY WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MIXING IN ITS WAKE. 40-50 KT WINDS IN THE
850-500 MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MIX TO THE SURFACE THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN NW WINDS GUSTING 35-40 MPH AND OCCASIONALLY
HIGHER UNTIL SUNSET. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A GRADUALLY WEAKENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AT
15-20 MPH THIS EVENING SLOWLY DIMINISHING TO 10-15 MPH BY MORNING.

COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN 850 MB TEMPS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON A GOOD 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY. AS A
RESULT...HIGHS THURSDAY WILL HOLD IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S WHICH
IS ACTUALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SATURDAY...EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY THEN SLOWLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MINOR TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE TROUGHS ARRIVAL WILL IMPACT CLOUD COVER
FORECAST AS WELL AS COLD FRONTS ARRIVAL. ONCE THE FRONT DOES MOVE
THROUGH GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED. STILL LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR WITH THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE DAY BEFORE
DECREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S.

SUNDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE (FOR THIS MODEL CYCLE) THAT CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE LEAVING A MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY. DURING
THE NIGHT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS FROM THE WEST
PRODUCING A PARTLY TO POSSIBLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. MAY SEE A BIT OF
GUSTINESS TO THE WIND DURING THE MORNING BEFORE THEY SUBSIDE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH MID 20S
TO LOW 30S (EAST TO WEST). HOWEVER...850MB TEMPS FROM THE ECMWF/GFS
OF -3C TO -14C (WEST TO EAST) AND LATEST MEX GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT
READINGS A FEW TO PERHAPS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY 10F TO 16F...COLDEST ACROSS THE EAST AND PARTS OF FAR
EASTERN COLORADO.

MONDAY...SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WITH THAT PERHAPS MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
(PER MODEL RH FORECASTS) THEN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. SHOULD BE DRY
DURING THE DAY BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR MUCH OF OUR NEBRASKA
COUNTIES WHERE 850-500RH MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
EXTENDED FORECAST PROCEDURE PAINTS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MCCOOK
AND NORTON AREAS OVERNIGHT...CANT SAY IT WONT HAPPEN PER ABOVE
MENTIONED 850-500 MOISTURE SO WILL RIDE WITH IT FOR NOW. WARM AIR
ALOFT NUDGES ITS WAY INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO WITH THE EASTERN PART
OF THE AREA UNDER THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT. CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW 30S
EAST AND LOW 40S WEST LOOKS GOOD GIVEN THE 850MB FORECAST TEMPS. LOW
TEMPERATURES MID TEENS EAST TO LOW 20S WEST.

TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR THE EXTENDED PROCEDURES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE NIGHT AS ECMWF/GFS 850-
500RH FORECASTS PUSH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA. 850MB
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM AND CURRENT FORECAST OF MID/UPPER 30S EAST
TO LOW/MID 40S WEST LOOKS REASONABLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA IS GENERATING A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASING CIRRUS OVERNIGHT. MAIN WEATHER IMPACT DURING PERIOD
WILL BE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30-40 KTS UNTIL 00Z THEN
DIMINISHING TO NORTH 15-20 KTS THIS EVENING AND ULTIMATELY NORTH
AT 10-15 KTS BY 12Z..

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DLF


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