Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 201953
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
153 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKY
CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME
THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK IN PAST COUPLE HOURS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE A FEW DEGREES. THIS HAS PUT THE TRI STATE
REGION MAINLY IN THE MID 40S...WITH SOME NEAR 50F ACROSS FAR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

GOING INTO TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES FROM LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...COMBINED WITH SURFACE RIDGE NOSING FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO
THE LOWER PORTION OF THE PLAINS...IS GOING TO KEEP LOW CLOUD DECK
OVER THE CWA FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMING
SSE BY THURSDAY MORNING. MID/UPPER LEVELS DRY AS H5 RIDGE NOSES IN
OVER ROCKIES...GIVING WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB.

GOING INTO THURSDAY...RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST WITH MODELS BRINGING
H5/H7 CUTOFF LOW INTO THE ROCKIES. SSE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL ALLOW FOR GULF MOISTURE TO FUNNEL UP NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE MODELS HAVE WEAK LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOP.
SOME -RW DOES DEVELOP EARLY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MEANDERS
SLOWLY EASTWARD THRU THE DAY...SLICING INTO PORTION OF THE WESTERN
CWA. RIDGE FAIRLY STAGNANT BUT DOES HINT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO FEED INTO CWA...WITH TROUGH SLIDING EAST SOME IN TANDEM. THIS
COULD TRIGGER A FEW LIGHT -RW WITH FOCUS OVER EASTERN COLORADO
ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTS IN NW KANSAS COULD SEE A SPOT SHOWER. HAVE KEPT
POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE DAY...BUT CENTRAL
EASTERN HALF MAINLY DRY. PLACEMENT OF RIDGE TOMORROW WILL AFFECT
HIGHS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WARMEST WILL BE EAST WHERE BEST CHANCES
FOR LESS AREAL CLOUD COVERAGE...COOLER WEST...BUT LOOKING FOR LOW TO
MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

THURSDAY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

THURSDAY NIGHT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...DEEPENING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA AS IT MOVES
NORTHEAST.  SOUNDINGS/CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FROM ACROSS THE
AREA INDICATE A SHALLOW SATURATED ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE AREA...BUT A DEEPER SATURATED LAYER OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA.  WITH LIFT BEING THE WEAKEST OVER THIS PART OF THE AREA AS
WELL...WILL HAVE THE LOWEST RAINFALL CHANCES THERE WITH CHANCES
INCREASING TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
SOUNDINGS/CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATE DRIER AIR MOVING
IN ABOVE ROUGHLY 700MB WHICH WILL CAUSE ANY RAINFALL TO TRANSITION
TO DRIZZLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  WITH
THIS IN MIND AM THINKING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN LIFT
AND MOISTURE ARE HIGHEST.

FRIDAY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO
EAST BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA PRIOR
TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH.  DURING THE AFTERNOON THERE
WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIFT WITHIN THE SATURATED LOW LEVELS...SO
WILL HAVE DRIZZLE LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ENDING FROM WEST
TO EAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES WEST OF A DRYLINE OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF
THE AREA.

DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON A DRYLINE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL BE AROUND 1000-
1500J/KG RANGER AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND
50KTS...SUPPORTIVE OF SUPER CELLS.  THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
TIED TO THE DRYLINE...BUT STORM MOTION WILL TAKE THE STORMS TO THE
EAST.  AM THINKING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE PRIMARILY WEST OF THE
KS/CO BORDER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

FRIDAY EVENING INSTABILITY ALONG THE DRY LINE WILL
DECLINE...ALLOWING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO COME TO AN END.
THROUGH THE NIGHT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE LOW LEVEL
JET AND LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR DRIZZLE BACK TO THE AREA.  THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MORE
COMPACT THAN THE LAST ONE FROM THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOUNDINGS/CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
TO BE TIED TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THEREFORE WILL HAVE CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL FOLLOWING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE
DURING THE NIGHT.  HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL START TO MOVE INTO UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO SATURDAY MORNING. KEEP IN MIND THAT THE GFS IS MOVING
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. AT 12Z ON SATURDAY THE GFS
SHOWS SOME DIVERGENCE AT THE 500 MB LEVEL AS WELL AS A 300MB JET
MOVING OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS. SURFACE CAPE IS SHOWING VALUES UP
TO 1600 J/KG INTO THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS
SHOWING 60 KT WINDS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.
THIS COULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES AROUND
18Z BUT THERE IS DRIER AIR ENTRAINING INTO EASTERN COLORADO AROUND
00Z SUNDAY. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY DECREASE THE DEVELOPMENT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LOWER THEN INITIALLY FORECASTED WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS WELL
COOLER UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE WARMER AIR BEING MORE SOUTH.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP
INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWARD THERE ARE MULTIPLE 700 MB SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. SURFACE CAPE SHOWS VALUES OF 900 J/KG
AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR GETS TO 50 KTS ON SUNDAY. SURFACE ADVECTION
GETS UP TO 2 G/KG OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
A WEAK CLOSED LOW...CREATING INSTABILITY...COMING FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN STATES...EVENTUALLY BLENDING IN WITH THE PRIMARILY
ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

FOR BOTH TAF SITES...MVFR/VFR MIX IN CEILINGS WHICH WILL RANGE
FROM BKN-OVC015-035. KGLD MAY SEE VCSH AFT 14Z THURSDAY W/ NO
EXPECTED VISIBILITY REDUCTION. WINDS NNE 10-15KTS BECM LGT/VAR BY
05Z-07Z...THEN BECOMING SE NEAR 10KTS BY 14Z THURSDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JTL/CLT
AVIATION...JN



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