Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 281914
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
114 PM MDT SAT MAY 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 113 PM MDT Sat May 28 2016
Visible satellite this afternoon shows cu developing across the
entire area but a bit more organized upstream near the Cheyenne
Ridge. This is all being driven by surface heating as upper
heights are actually rising. Latest runs of the hires models
suggest isolated showers/thunderstorms will drift southeast from
the Cheyenne Ridge before dissipating around sunset. Will carry
slight chance pops for northeast Colorado but not sure these will
get much further so left only 10 pops in Kansas and Nebraska
tonight. Some of the models develop precipitation after 12z as a
shortwave trough rotates up from the southwest around the southern
plains ridge, but there is better model consensus during the
afternoon hours for widely scattered development. It will be
moderately unstable by then but deep layer shear will generally
be less than 20kts. A storm or two could briefly pulse up to near
severe limits in that environment but overall the severe threat
will be on the low end for Sunday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 148 AM MDT Sat May 28 2016
For the long term period the models are showing that Tuesday through
Wednesday at 00z are the only times where precipitation is possible.
There is a trough sitting over the north central CONUS which is
going to impact the CWA in the beginning of the extended period. An
upper level low that is sitting over Arizona and New Mexico will be
absorbed into the main flow at the beginning of the period; that in
addition to 700 mb shortwaves will help with storm development.
Surface CAPE looks fairly good with up to 1500 J/kg Tuesday night
over the eastern portions of the CWA. Bulk shear does not look
impressive though. Due to the instability factors mentioned storm
development is possible.
The remainder of the period looks dry. The models show a ridge
building over the western CONUS Tuesday and progresses east through
the period which eventually reaches the area Wednesday night. This
ridge will bring warmer temperatures to the region, with
temperatures reaching the upper 70s Friday.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Sat May 28 2016
VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Mid
level Cu will pop up through the afternoon with surface heating
then dissipate around sunset.