Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 220818

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
218 AM MDT Mon May 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Sun May 21 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...locales are seeing a
psunny/msunny mix with temperatures ranging in the 60s to the lower
70s with a light west/northwest wind. A weak line of showers with a
few embedded thunderstorms is currently moving thru Kit Carson
county...continuing towards the Kansas border.

This will be the trend for the rest of the day on into the evening
hours. A shortwave working off the Rockies tonight will work in
tandem with the inverted surface trough over the Desert SW. These
two systems will swing east into the Central/Southern Plains
bringing a chance for precip to the area.

Going into Monday...precip clears the region followed by another
500/700 shortwave during the course of the day. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible. SPC has put the SE section of the CWA
under a Marginal Risk for severe conditions. As the system comes
into contact with a more unstable airmass going into central
KS...strong to severe wx is possible especially for the
afternoon/early evening.

For temps...looking for overnight lows to drop into the lower and
mid 30s...transitioning around 70F on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 218 AM MDT Mon May 22 2017

Active weather returns in the extended period with nearly persistent
precipitation chances and a cooling trend.

An upper ridge slides east of the region on Thursday and dry
conditions come to an end. A low pressure system slowly traverses
south central Canada. The trough and cold front associated with this
system extends south into the High Plains. As the system gradually
tracks eastward along the US/Canada border, multiple shortwaves pass
through the southern periphery of the broad upper low. This
generates shower and thunderstorm chances nearly every period in the
extended. Differences in guidance make timing and severe threat
difficult to determine at this time. Will continue to monitor and
iron out details in the coming days.

Temperatures cool throughout the period, from the 70s/low 80s on
Thursday to the upper 60s/low 70s on Sunday. Low temperatures look
to remain in the mid 40s to mid 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1114 PM MDT Sun May 21 2017

Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving through the area
overnight may briefly reduce ceilings/visibility as they move over
the terminals. Trend will be for the activity to move south and
should no longer be impacting either terminal by 10z. A period of
VFR is expected Monday morning through early afternoon. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop once again by mid afternoon
and continue through Monday evening.




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