Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 260902
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
302 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.  TO THE WEST AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WAS MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST.  BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND
THE RIDGE AREAS OF CLOUDS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.  AT
THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER THEN
TURNED SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS NEAR COLBY...EXTENDING INTO
SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  EAST OF THE FRONT SOUTHEAST WINDS WERE ADVECTING
HIGHER DEW POINTS TO THE NORTH.  AS A RESULT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP
EAST OF THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING.

TODAY EXPECT THE FOG TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING THEN BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE WEAK FRONT MOVES EASTWARD.  THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE KS/NE BORDER
WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL CONVERGE AND DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHEST.
MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA TODAY FOLLOWING THE WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.  DUE TO THE DRY
AIR MASS IN PLACE AM NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN SOME CLOUD COVER WITH
THE FRONT/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE.  HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE NEAR RECORD VALUES.

TONIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST HALF OF THE AREA...REMAINING STATIONARY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OVERNIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  WITH THE
CONTINUED DRY ENVIRONMENT AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME
CLOUDS FROM THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PRIOR TO THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
LATER ON MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE OVERNIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH BUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  TOWARD
SUNRISE 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS.  WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
INCREASE AND THETA-E LAPSE RATES NEAR ZERO...WILL PLACE A MENTION OF
RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA.
SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK TOO GREAT FOR ANY RAINFALL ACTUALLY REACHING
THE GROUND DUE TO A DRY LAYER BELOW ROUGHLY 700MB AND THE 100MB DEEP
SATURATED LAYER AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT ANY RAINFALL.  BY SUNRISE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE AREA BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN BEHIND IT.

MONDAY MORNING THE BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LINKED
WITH THE BAND OF 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS MOVING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL
BE IN THE MORNING OVER THE WEST WHERE THE FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE
STRONGEST.  THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE THE DRY
LAYER PRESENT BELOW ROUGHLY 700MB AND THE FAIRLY SHALLOW DEPTH OF
THE SATURATED LAYER AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
AND THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE 700-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS CAUSING THE LIFT TO WEAKEN.  IN ADDITION THETA-
E LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE STABLE FURTHER HINDERING RAINFALL
DEVELOPMENT.  AS A RESULT WILL HAVE RAINFALL CHANCES DECLINING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY NOON.  THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY
DECLINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS AN 850MB RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST.

MONDAY EVENING SOME WEAK 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE OVER THE
FAR SOUTH/EAST PART OF THE AREA PRIOR TO THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING
THROUGH.  WILL KEEP MINIMAL RAINFALL CHANCES GOING JUST AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS WITH RAINFALL ENDING ONCE THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA. LATER IN THE EVENING AND THROUGH SUNRISE LOWS WILL
FALL TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT
PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FROST WILL DEVELOP...WITH SOME LOCATIONS WEST
OF HIGHWAY 27 POSSIBLY HAVING A HARD FREEZE. AT THIS TIME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL HAVE A HARD FREEZE ARE FAIRLY ISOLATED...BUT
THIS MAY CHANGE WITH LATER DATA.

TUESDAY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AS
A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.  DURING THE NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN COOL TO THE LOW TO MID 30S...ALLOWING PATCHY
TO AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

WEDNESDAY...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE EXITING
THE AREA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 9F FROM TUESDAYS VALUES SUPPORTING
HIGHS AROUND 70/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
30S WEST TO LOW 40S EAST.

THURSDAY...HIGH AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE
AREA REACHING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LOWERING 850MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 9F ACROSS THE
AREA SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SFC RIDGE AXIS HOLDS
FIRM ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE FURTHER WEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S
BUT COULD SEE SLIGHTLY COLDER READINGS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
PROXIMITY TO SFC HIGH AND LIGHT WINDS LASTS LONGER WHEN COMPARED TO
AREAS FURTHER WEST. HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...GFS/ECMWF IS BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH TIMING OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA BY
DAYS END AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. AS THE SFC HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. STRONGEST SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE
COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WHERE GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE
POSSIBLE. GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO THURSDAYS VALUES
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWING SOME COOLER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. BLENDING
THE TWO GIVES HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S (EAST TO WEST). LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...LARGE UPPER TROUGH JUST COMING ASHORE ACROSS THE WEST IN
THE MORNING NEARLY REACHES THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING PUTTING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
STRONGER SFC WINDS MIGRATE TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN COLORADO. PLENTIFUL
DRY AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY AND WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S PER GFS SOLUTION...THE ECWMF QUITE A BIT COOLER SO
WILL GO WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 60S FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN AS VFR AT MCK AND TURN LIFR BETWEEN 11Z-14Z
AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S PRODUCE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AFTER 14Z AS
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND DRYER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES ALSO INCREASE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2014

THIS AFTERNOON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 30 MPH EAST OF
THE COLORADO BORDER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO NEAR 15
PERCENT. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS WILL BE DECLINING AS THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY
HIGHLIGHTS FOR FIRE WEATHER DUE TO NO OVERLAP OF THE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WITH BREEZY WINDS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON NORTH WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 20 PERCENT WEST OF HIGHWAY 27.
CURRENTLY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO FALL BELOW
15 PERCENT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS IN CASE HAZARDOUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE REACHED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...JTL



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